5 8-12 Harvard Technical Analysis

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5 8-12 Harvard Technical Analysis

  1. 1. Technical Analysis From the Top/Down J.C. Parets, CMT 5/8/12
  2. 2. Harvard Sentiment Polls• S&P500 1600 or 1200?• Own/Hold Just One Stock for a full Year? Ten Years?• Technical or Fundamental Analysis?
  3. 3. “Technical Analysis refers to the study of the action of the market itselfas opposed to the study of the goods in which the market deals” - Robert D. Edwards and John Magee in 1948
  4. 4. Technical Analysis• Risk Management• Top/Down Market Analysis• Sentiment• Seasonality• Momentum• Risk/Reward• Technical Analysis & Social Media
  5. 5. Where Am I Wrong?
  6. 6. Dow Jones Industrial Average 1900-Present
  7. 7. 10-Year US Treasury Yields 1940 - Present
  8. 8. Dow Industrials Priced in Gold 1969 - Present
  9. 9. Stock Sector Performance Since 2009
  10. 10. Financials in 2007 (Pre-Crash)
  11. 11. Consumer Discretionary/Staples in 2007
  12. 12. Consumer Discretionary/Staples in 2009
  13. 13. Nasdaq100 vs S&P500 in 2008 - 2009
  14. 14. S&P500, DJIA, Nasdaq100 2009-Present
  15. 15. Leading Indicators• Copper• Semiconductors• Other Intermarket Relationships
  16. 16. S&P500Bottom 2009US Dollar Index Top 2009
  17. 17. AAII Survey of Retail Investor Sentiment
  18. 18. August 1979 June 2005
  19. 19. Sell in May and Go Away?
  20. 20. Bullish Divergence in Momentum
  21. 21. Bearish Divergence in Momentum
  22. 22. Risk vs Reward
  23. 23. Technical Analysis on the Web • Stocktwits • Chart.ly • Blogs
  24. 24. J.C. Parets, CMT jc@allstarcharts.comStocktwits & Twitter @allstarcharts

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