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20100922 Te Linde Future Flood Risk 2

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Future flood risk in the Rhine basin

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20100922 Te Linde Future Flood Risk 2

  1. 1. Aline te Linde 1,2 , Hans de Moel 2 , Philip Bubeck 2 1 Deltares, Delft, NL 2 Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, Amsterdam, NL HydroPredict 2010 20-23 September, Prague Future flood risk in the Rhine basin
  2. 2. Problem description <ul><li>Rhine is a very important traffic route and economically important </li></ul><ul><li>~10 Million people live in areas at risk from extreme flooding </li></ul><ul><li>Flood events in 1993 and 1995 caused considerable damage / evacuation </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in flood risk is expected </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Socio-economic development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Climate change </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Research goals <ul><li>Develop a flood risk model for the entire Rhine channel </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Estimate potential flood damage on the basis of up-to-date information </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evaluate current flood risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Probability x damage </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Estimate the development of potential damage and flood risk in the future </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>What is the main driving factor </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assess various adaptation strategies </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Method: current potential damage and risk Land Use Map Inundation map Damage grid Risk map (Aggreg.) x 1/250 Damage map (Aggreg.) x 1/500 Depth damage functions (Klijn et al., 2007) Urban Industry 1 Meter 1,5 Meter 2 M€ 1 M€
  5. 5. Method: maps <ul><li>CORINE 2000 Rhine Atlas (2001) / 'Risicokaart' </li></ul>
  6. 6. Method: flooding probabilities <ul><li>Safety levels: </li></ul><ul><li>- Dutch delta: design standard </li></ul><ul><li>- Other sections: based on a report by ICPR and expert judgement (interviews) </li></ul>  Return periods Alpine 1/200 Upper Rhine 1/1000 Upper Rhine 1/200 Middle Rhine 1/200 Lower Rhine 1/200 Lower Rhine 1/500 Rhine delta 1/1250
  7. 7. Results Rhine at Duisburg
  8. 8. Results: aggregated <ul><li>- Rhine is a very important traffic route and economically important </li></ul>
  9. 9. Method: future flood risk in 2030 x 1/200 X1/450 x 1/150 X 1/400 Global Economy and climate scen 1 Regional Communities and climate scen 2
  10. 10. Method: socio-economic scenarios Global Economy Strong population and economic growth International economic integration Strong role of the individual Private interests Regional Communities Low economic and population growth National / regional focus Strong role of governments Environmental regulations <ul><li>„ Land Use Scanner“ </li></ul><ul><li>Suitability Maps </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Flood zones </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nature areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Retention areas </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distance Maps </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DEM </li></ul></ul><ul><li>(Rietveld & Hilferink, 1999; Loonen and Koomen, 2008) </li></ul>“ claims GE - EURURALIS” “ claims RC - EURURALIS”
  11. 11. Method: climate change scenarios <ul><li>- Taken from Te Linde et al., 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>- Long time series (weather generator) Assumption: no </li></ul><ul><li>- 'Low' scenario and 'high' scenario dike raise </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>For every section: </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>p Ref p Scen1 p Scen2 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>0.050 0.062 0.0129 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1/200 1/160 1/77 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Results Reference situation RACMO and RC Wp and GE Region p EUR bln EUR mln/yr p EUR bln EUR mln/yr p EUR bln EUR mln/yr Alpine A 0.0050 0.5 2.3 0.0072 0.4 2.9 0.0157 0.5 8.1 Upper Rhine B 0.0010 23 23 0.0014 23 33 0.0038 27 110 Upper Rhine C 0.0050 60 300 0.0062 64 400 0.0129 75 970 Middle Rhine D 0.0050 16 79 0.0063 13 82 0.0125 19 2 Lower Rhine E 0.0050 72 360 0.0075 81 600 0.0125 91 1100 Lower Rhine F 0.0020 26 52 0.0031 31 95 0.0062 38 240 Delta 0.0008 120 98 0.0015 131 200 0.0023 150 340 Total 230 920 340 1400 400 3000
  13. 13. Results: driving factor <ul><li>Basin-wide expected losses (risk) in MEur/year </li></ul>Socio-economic scenario Reference RC GE Climate scenario Reference 920 980 (6.5%) 1200 (25%) RACMO 1300 (43%) 1400 (53%) 1600 (79%) Wp 2400 (160%) 2600 (180%) 3000 (230%)
  14. 14. Results
  15. 15. Results
  16. 16. Conclusions and recommendations <ul><li>- Highest potential damage NL: 120 BEuro </li></ul><ul><li>- Highest flood risk in Nordrhein Westfalen: 360 MEuro / yr </li></ul><ul><li>- 2000 – 2030: 53 – 230 % increase in basin-wide flood risk </li></ul><ul><li>- ~ three quarters climate change </li></ul><ul><li>- Probability of extremes is very uncertain, impact of climate change even more </li></ul><ul><li>-> damage reduction seems robust adaptation measure </li></ul><ul><li>- Method needs improvement: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Inundation simulation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Damage estimates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Estimates of safety levels </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Thank you For more questions: [email_address] For more information: www.deltares.nl www.ivm.vu.nl www.climateresearchnetherlands.nl

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