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Recruitment Workshop
Strategic
Workforce Forecasting & Planning
(in a VUCA world)
1-day workshop Part 1
Alexander Crépin A...
Recruitment Workshop
Strategic
Workforce Forecasting & Planning
(in a VUCA world)
1-day workshop
So take your time!
when w...
Recruitment Workshop
Strategic
Workforce Forecasting & Planning
(in a VUCA world)
If you don’t have time!
Watch the summar...
SAAA Corporate Recruitment Model
4 phases
Attract AppointAssessStrategize
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
SAAA Corporate Recruitment Model
Strategize
Talent
Acquisition
Attract
Employer
Branding
Forecasting
Planning
Hiring
Appoi...
Understanding WFP
1. What is WFP
2. Why WFP
3. When WFP
4. Who in WFP
5. How WFP
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recr...
Understanding WFP
1.What is WFP
2. Why WFP
3. When WFP
4. Who in WFP
5. How WFP
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recru...
1. WFP What ?
Workforce development tool
• Forecasting = identifying needs
(what)
• Planning = addressing needs
(how)
Work...
What ?
- Forecasting future Workforce requirements
• size, type, shape & quality
• as optimal & as realistic as possible
•...
What ?
- Developing pro-active Workforce Plan
• how get present workforce quantitatively &
qualitatively in place
• with a...
What else ?
Process to get workforce as ready as
possible to meet business challenges
• right size
• with the right profil...
WFP Forecasting
• Exploring & analysing future business
development based on company’s strategy & mission
• Identifying ma...
WFP Forecasting 5 basic questions:
1. How many? - Quantity
2. What kind? - Quality
3. What type? - Contract/Relationship
4...
What ? WFP Forecasting
Forecasting process
• Art of looking into the future
Accuracy of forecast will be due part to judgm...
What ? WFP Forecasting
NB
• Art ………
• Even best forecasts only a moderate effort
• Accuracy can fall rapidly
– internal & ...
Workforce Forecast
=
Input for Workforce Planning
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recr...
What ? Workforce Planning
Addressing forecasted requirements by
‒ developing strategies, solutions & plans for
agile, as f...
WFP Planning 5 basic questions:
• What are HR implications of forecast ?
• What are risks, challenges & opportunities ?
• ...
WFP HR Strategies, Solutions & Plans
• Recruitment
• Retention
• Career path development
• Professional development & trai...
WFP Forecasting (recruiting point of view)
Using Recruitment data, information, insights etc.
Input for better, more accur...
WFP Planning (recruiting point of view)
What, how, when & where to do, at what
cost ensuring:
• in the (near) future
• suc...
WFP Planning (recruiting point of view)
Planning & recruitment
• Recruiting objectives aligned to other HR initiatives
• R...
What ? WFP result
• Bigger picture context for HR strategy
development, refinement & execution
• Strategic Framework, long...
1. What is WFP ?
Pathway to shape the workforce
quantitatively & qualitatively
as ready as possible for (near) future
to d...
Understanding WFP
1. What is WFP
2.Why WFP
3. When WFP
4. Who in WFP
5. How WFP
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recru...
2. Why WFP ?
Enable business strategy execution by
• timely, cost-effective & efficient
• supply of
• qualified talent
Wor...
Why ?
WFP (defensive) to prevent having a
• Surplus of employees (to many)
• Shortfall in talent supply (not enough)
a gap...
Why ?
WFP (positive) to ensure success by:
• Uncovering workforce strengths for
developing future business success
• Provi...
Why ? WFP & Pro-active HR
…… Most organisations face not so much a
challenge in getting right numbers of staff,
but rather...
Why else?
1. Reducing labor costs
2. Taking out the guess work
3. Better insight for workforce decisions
4. Realistic work...
Why else (2) ?
6. Mitigating today’s & tomorrow’s dynamics
7. Workforce alignment to operating model
8. Allocation of reso...
Why else (3) ?
11. Focus not only on “simple” headcount & metrics
12. Improved Return-on-Talent of HR investments
13. Pro-...
Why else (4) ?
16. Have (HR) scenario’s ready to anticipate changes
17.Lower levels of stress & absence
18.Increased criti...
Why ? Recruiting view (1)
1. Input for recruitment strategy & hiring goals
2. Direction for short term recruiting prioriti...
Why ? Recruiting view (2)
6. Improve hire efficiency & effectiveness
7. Optimize shape, structure & size of recruiting
tea...
Why ? Business view (1)
• Maximizing workforce readiness &
• Optimizing workforce composition
• Minimizing workforce (mana...
Why ? Business view (2)
Developing the strategic & operational
capability:
• to align workforce with business plan
• to an...
Why ? Sustainable success
no business plan
without a workforce (HR) plan
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
A...
2. Why WFP ? HR view
Get a pretty good picture of what
realistically needs to be done
• to have the workforce
• in the (ne...
Questions before the break
1. ……….
2. …………
3. …………...
4. ……………….
5. ………………….
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruite...
Your questions ?
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Understanding WFP
1. What is WFP
2. Why WFP
3.When WFP
4. Who in WFP
5. How WFP
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recru...
3. When WFP ?
In today’s dynamic world:
Ongoing, continuous process
Regular review, update & adjust plans
– external & int...
When ?
WFP is a strategic exercise
• not a “one & done” annual exercise
• not a short-term budgeting endeavour!
Workforce ...
When ?
• Scope of process
• Budget (review) cycle
• Business scenario planning
• Maturity of process, data, systems &
cult...
When ?
• How far into future for realist projections?
• Time horizon “VUCA” realistic
• Periodically update for accuracy &...
When ? WFP Time Horizons
Short term: Operational << 0,5 - 1 year
Headcount focus
Mid term: Tactical, 12 - 18 months
Annual...
When ? Example Full WFP cycle:
• Every 3 years (depending on VUCA context)
strategic, tactical & operational planning + mi...
When ? Agile WFP
• Rolling forecasts
• Agile planning
• Data Driven, real time monitoring
• Modelling & simulating (on dem...
When ? (from recruiting point of view)
Data Driven Recruitment
Recruiting Data Eco-system
• Real time dashboard & insights...
3. WFP When ?
In today’s dynamic world
WFP continuous, consistent & agile process
build-in mechanisms to monitor & up-date...
Understanding WFP
1. What is WFP
2. Why WFP
3. When WFP
4.Who in WFP
5. How WFP
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recru...
4. Who ?
• Who is owner of the WFP process?
• Who are involved in the WFP
development & implementation?
• What competencie...
Who ? Ownership&Involvement
WFP Ownership:
Senior manager highest level organisation
WFP Involvement (Cooperation & Collab...
Who ? WFP Involvement
Stakeholder (cross-functional)
cooperation & collaboration
major WFP success factor
applying (functi...
Who ? WFP Involvement
• ‘Top-down’ WFP doesn’t work
• Not by HR team and/or planning office alone
• Input, support & techn...
Who ? Getting active involvement
Securing buy-in from managers by
Role clarity & clear expectations
• What’s “in it” for e...
Who ? Getting active involvement
Securing buy-in from managers by
• Transparency, no (black-box) numbers game
• In-depth d...
Who ? Taking the lead
Program Manager / HR director Role:
Drive, coordinate, support & oversee the:
• WFP process developm...
Who ? Cooperation (top down & bottum-up)
Board member / Director (owner)
&
Program Manager / HR director (taking lead)
&
C...
Who ? Stakeholder Mapping
Non-HR (cross-functional) stakeholders:
• Executives
• Middle & senior business managers
• Finan...
Who ? Involve when for what?
• Middle managers & professionals
– providing input at functional/local level
– implementing ...
Who ? Stakeholder Mapping
HR disciplines
• HR general management
• HR Data, Information & Reporting
• Training & Developme...
Who ? Stakeholder Mapping
Recruitment disciplines
• Sourcing Analyst(s)
• Employer Branding Specialist(s)
• Recruiter(s)
•...
Who ? WFP Competencies & Skills
WFP unique blend of competencies, skills &
experience
Finding people with having both proc...
Who ? WFP Profile: Competencies
• Highly numerical and analytical
• Understanding of analytical methods & models
• Vision ...
4. WFP Who ?
WFP cooperative & collaborative effort
HR, business leadership & key professionals
at all levels
C&C effort w...
Understanding WFP
1. What is WFP
2. Why WFP
3. When WFP
4. Who in WFP
5.How WFP
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recru...
5. How ? WFP = Challenging
WFP pretty complicated
Requiring a framework, systems, models, tools,
methods, expertise & expe...
How ?
No single best way for WFP
No one-size-fits-all approach
But …… don’t start recreating the wheel!!
Workforce Forecas...
How ?
Traditional Barriers for WFP
• Too ambitious, in view of complexity of working
integrated, cross functional, cross r...
How ?
Start Simple!!! (but aim big!)
Trying to run before you can walk doesn’t work!
Tailor to specifics of organisation &...
How ? Past & Future
Our knowledge is about the past
Our decisions are about the future
(Ian Wilson)
….. In times of turbul...
How ? WFP = strategic activity
Creating framework for best possible,
future ready decisions about
• workforce shape, struc...
How ? WFP Enablers (1)
• Culture open for Data Driven Decision making?
• Familiar/experience with scenario development?
• ...
How ? WFP Enablers (2)
• WFP integrated, company wide model in place?
• Building on existing programs/initiatives
already ...
How ? a Simple Start
• Step-by-step
• Pilot to learn, develop proof of concept
• Identifying added valueaddifferentlevels ...
How ? a Pilot to Start
Pilot options:
• Department(s)
• Location(s)
• Function(s)
• Type / level of critical job(s)
• Limi...
How ? WFP Model
Many organisations have a WFP model
Most models are quite similar
except for variations in terminology & t...
How ? WFP Model
Model depends on:
• how easily be implemented & start
• ease to tailor, flexibility & scalability of model...
How ? WFP Model
Model challenge:
• Developing realistically (80-20 rule)
‒ don’t aim perfection in a dynamic world, focus ...
How ? WFP Model Building Blocks
• Process
• Data eco-system
• Method(s)
• Technology & Systems
• Resources, Communication ...
How ? WFP Model Building Blocks
• Process
• Data eco-system
• Method(s)
• Technology & Systems
• Resources, Communication ...
How ? Process characteristics
• Continuous, ongoing, iterative
• Integrated into strategic planning cycle
• Transparent & ...
How ? Process characteristics
Traditional models:
WFP process of consecutive stages
However: in practice WFP may not be so...
How ? Process characteristics
Modern / upcoming models:
WFPconsistent,ongoing process,rollingforecasts
with variability fo...
How ? Process 7 steps matter most:
1. Gather
2. Analyse
3. Assess
4. Anticipate
5. Act(ion)
6. Audit
7. Adapt (action) & A...
Questions before the break
1. ……….
2. …………
3. …………...
4. ……………….
5. ………………….
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruite...
Your questions ?
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Time for a break
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
How ? Step 1: Gather Data
• WFP is a Data Driven Process
• Without data, forecasting & planning
doesn’t make real sense
• ...
How ? WFP = Data Driven
also because:
• Increasing use of (HR) systems & tools
• Growing interest for human capital info
•...
How ? WFP Data Driven
Success in WFP depends on the
• detail, accuracy & reliability
of the data & information sources
• W...
How ? Model: Process & Data
Process step 1:
Gather Data & Information
Model building block 2:
Data eco-system
Workforce Fo...
How ? WFP Data Driven
Data eco-system
• Identified useful / relevant data sources
• Consolidating
• Developing uniform & c...
WFP Data eco-system
WFP data eco-system development
• establishing corporate wide common (HR) data set
• consolidate dispa...
HR Data eco-system Maturity
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
- Little to no HR
reporting capability
- Data ...
WFP Data eco-system Basic Data Set
Job Characteristics
• Salary rates
• Hours of work
• Overtime hours
• Hours worked by p...
How ? WFP Gather data (input)
Several kinds of input:
• Data / facts / info, now having & knowing
• Data & info external, ...
WFP input: Internal data references
• Scenario, strategic planning expertise, system(s) & culture
• Corporate objectives, ...
WFP input: External data references
• Demand for the firm’s products & services
• Seasonal peaks in market demand
• Labour...
WFP input: External data references
Identifying for future workforce relevant
• critical success factors
• factors with di...
WFP input: Environment scan example
Summary of trends & policy implications on
workforce in UK NHS
In developing a WFP tak...
WFP input: External scan example
Summary (2)
In developing a WFP, NHS will have to take into account:
• NH improvement pol...
WFP Data eco-system External Data
Which sources to use?
For example this kind of overviews:
Workforce Forecasting & Planni...
How ? WFP Gather data (input)
From a recruiting point of view
Data Driven Hiring key in modern recruitment
Internet is the...
How ? WFP Data Driven
Beginning simple:
• Use human capital data already (easily)
available today
• Analyse & measure what...
How ? Process 7 steps matter most:
1. Gather
2. Analyse
3. Assess
4. Anticipate
5. Act(ion)
6. Audit
7. Adapt (action) & A...
How ? Step 2: Analytics
Challenge:
Synthesising different sources of data to
• analyse & monitor current situation
• analy...
How ? From data to insight
Data doesn’t narrow your choices
It opens your mind
— Venetia Taylor, Google, June 2015
Workfor...
How ? Continuous, up-to-date insight
Workforce Intelligence (culture)
• understanding workforce dynamics
• real time insig...
How ? From WFP data to insight
1 Data People statistics
2 Information Annual HR Plan
3 Insight HR analytics
4 Forecasts Wo...
How ? Data Driven challenges (1)
Understanding data relationships
Example:
McDonald's Restaurants Northern Europe and
rese...
How ? Data Driven challenges (2)
Identifying trends & patterns
By examining trends of past the effect of the
same activity...
How ? Data Driven challenges (3)
Identifying factors with direct, measurable
impact on forecasted workforce profile
for
• ...
How ? Data Driven challenges (4)
Developing ability
• to translate current & future business models
into critical knowledg...
How ? Typical WFP Data, Example
WF mobility, attrition / turn over data:
Planned
Needs for personnel arising from planned ...
How ? Attrition Analysis sheet (examples)
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Rec...
How ?
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Future
Present
Past
• No dat...
How ?
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Future
Present
Past
Current ...
How ? Analysing WF supply
1. Current workforce supply (quantity & quality) as
starting point for WFP
2. Development of cur...
How ? Analytics for WF profile
1. Understanding current WF profile data
• Demographics & diversity
• Job families / catego...
How ? Analytics for WF profile
Useful analyses include:
• Turnover rates
• Retention rates
• Key / Top Performers
• Separa...
How ? Analysing Profile Development
2. Understanding How current workforce could
look like in 1,2,3,4 or 5 years time?
• H...
How ? Analysing WF supply
1. Current workforce supply starting point for WFP
2. Development of current WF workforce supply...
How ? Analysing Future WF Demand
3. Understanding external findings
• What are workforce implications & issues?
• Translat...
How ? Analysing Future WF Demand
3. Understanding exploration findings
• How might existing business processes be enhanced...
How ? Analysing for future Profiles
3. Developing future workforce profile
How will ideal or desired workforce look like w...
How ? Process 7 steps matter most:
1. Gather
2. Analyse
3. Assess
4. Anticipate
5. Act(ion)
6. Audit
7. Adapt (action) & A...
Questions before the lunch
1. ……….
2. …………
3. …………...
4. ……………….
5. ………………….
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruite...
Your questions ?
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Lunch Time
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
NEXT
Strategic
Workforce Forecasting & Planning
Part 2
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Alexander Crépin
recruitmen...
Alexander Crépin
Thank You
Thank you
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Also on by Alexander
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
End!
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
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Strategic Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters in a VUCA world, Introduction Workshop Part 1

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In a dynamic world the urgence for Data Driven Forecasting & Planning has never been greater.
Workforce Forecasting & Planning is part of the (shared) strategic responsibilities recruiters have to pro-actively develop a as good as possible talent supply, now & in the (near) future.
Data Driven Hiring doesn't work,without paying attention to expected need for talent. So in a dynamic world the urgence for Data Driven Forecasting & Planning has never been greater. This workshop intents to give an idea what WF&P is about to recruitment professionals
In this 1 day workshop recruiters will learn about the basics of Workforce Forecasting & Planning in a VUCA, dynamic world.

Published in: Recruiting & HR
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Strategic Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters in a VUCA world, Introduction Workshop Part 1

  1. 1. Recruitment Workshop Strategic Workforce Forecasting & Planning (in a VUCA world) 1-day workshop Part 1 Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl Alexander Crépin recruitment strategist, coach & trainer freelance, interim recruiting & management
  2. 2. Recruitment Workshop Strategic Workforce Forecasting & Planning (in a VUCA world) 1-day workshop So take your time! when watching on Slideshare Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  3. 3. Recruitment Workshop Strategic Workforce Forecasting & Planning (in a VUCA world) If you don’t have time! Watch the summary version on Slideshare Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  4. 4. SAAA Corporate Recruitment Model 4 phases Attract AppointAssessStrategize Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  5. 5. SAAA Corporate Recruitment Model Strategize Talent Acquisition Attract Employer Branding Forecasting Planning Hiring Appoint On- boarding Selecting Assess Engaging Talent Pooling Workforce Forecasting & Planning Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  6. 6. Understanding WFP 1. What is WFP 2. Why WFP 3. When WFP 4. Who in WFP 5. How WFP Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  7. 7. Understanding WFP 1.What is WFP 2. Why WFP 3. When WFP 4. Who in WFP 5. How WFP Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  8. 8. 1. WFP What ? Workforce development tool • Forecasting = identifying needs (what) • Planning = addressing needs (how) Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  9. 9. What ? - Forecasting future Workforce requirements • size, type, shape & quality • as optimal & as realistic as possible • over a period of one, two, or more years Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  10. 10. What ? - Developing pro-active Workforce Plan • how get present workforce quantitatively & qualitatively in place • with an affordable investment in time & money • to ensure business strategy execution (future talent supply meeting forecasted & upcoming demand) Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  11. 11. What else ? Process to get workforce as ready as possible to meet business challenges • right size • with the right profiles (diversity) & skills • doing right things at the right time • organised & structured in the right way • within the budget you can afford Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  12. 12. WFP Forecasting • Exploring & analysing future business development based on company’s strategy & mission • Identifying matters impacting the future WF • Identifying future WF requirements quantity & quality of staff needed to deliver business objectives and fulfil the business ambitions Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  13. 13. WFP Forecasting 5 basic questions: 1. How many? - Quantity 2. What kind? - Quality 3. What type? - Contract/Relationship 4. Where? - Unit /Function /Location 5. When? - Timing Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  14. 14. What ? WFP Forecasting Forecasting process • Art of looking into the future Accuracy of forecast will be due part to judgment & experience & • Science – step-by-step “mathematical”process Taking past history & using it to project future situation Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  15. 15. What ? WFP Forecasting NB • Art ……… • Even best forecasts only a moderate effort • Accuracy can fall rapidly – internal & external unforeseen developments or as projection horizon extends – types skills become more disaggregated – technological innovation etc. Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  16. 16. Workforce Forecast = Input for Workforce Planning Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  17. 17. What ? Workforce Planning Addressing forecasted requirements by ‒ developing strategies, solutions & plans for agile, as future ready as possible workforce ‒ defining SMART HR objectives & budgets ‒ defining pathway for implementation Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  18. 18. WFP Planning 5 basic questions: • What are HR implications of forecast ? • What are risks, challenges & opportunities ? • What strategies & solutions to ensure talent supply meets future demand ? • What priorities & realistic to do, to invest time & money in ? • How ensure commitment for implementation plans ? Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  19. 19. WFP HR Strategies, Solutions & Plans • Recruitment • Retention • Career path development • Professional development & training • Replace- & outplacement • Out- & insourcing • (Re) design organisation / reshape workforce • Flex force (partner) network Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  20. 20. WFP Forecasting (recruiting point of view) Using Recruitment data, information, insights etc. Input for better, more accurate forecasts (& plans) • Metrics • Staffing ratio’s • Labour Market Intelligence • EoC position • Talent pool & pipelines • Hiring scenario’s • Budgeting Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  21. 21. WFP Planning (recruiting point of view) What, how, when & where to do, at what cost ensuring: • in the (near) future • successful external hiring • of required quantity & quality of talent • at a reasonable (competitive) cost-per-hire Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  22. 22. WFP Planning (recruiting point of view) Planning & recruitment • Recruiting objectives aligned to other HR initiatives • Recruiting workload, team size, structure & level • Update recruiting process, methods, tools & tech etc. • Review & update EVP • Update Recruiting Personas & target group network Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  23. 23. What ? WFP result • Bigger picture context for HR strategy development, refinement & execution • Strategic Framework, longer-term context for critical workforce decisions • (HR) Decision filter for new business initiatives Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  24. 24. 1. What is WFP ? Pathway to shape the workforce quantitatively & qualitatively as ready as possible for (near) future to deliver the defined business objectives for sustainable success Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  25. 25. Understanding WFP 1. What is WFP 2.Why WFP 3. When WFP 4. Who in WFP 5. How WFP Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  26. 26. 2. Why WFP ? Enable business strategy execution by • timely, cost-effective & efficient • supply of • qualified talent Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  27. 27. Why ? WFP (defensive) to prevent having a • Surplus of employees (to many) • Shortfall in talent supply (not enough) a gap in the (critical/strategic) employee pool • Quality surplus and/or shortfall mismatch skill type &/or level of employees & demand Too many & Too few = Problem Not meeting productivity, performance, profitability & org. goals Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  28. 28. Why ? WFP (positive) to ensure success by: • Uncovering workforce strengths for developing future business success • Providing guidance for optimal workforce decisions Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  29. 29. Why ? WFP & Pro-active HR …… Most organisations face not so much a challenge in getting right numbers of staff, but rather having the people with the right skills, competencies & experience!.... Pro-activity key to success, to anticipate future WFP basis for pro-activity investments Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  30. 30. Why else? 1. Reducing labor costs 2. Taking out the guess work 3. Better insight for workforce decisions 4. Realistic workforce projections 5. Deeper understanding of workforce profile Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  31. 31. Why else (2) ? 6. Mitigating today’s & tomorrow’s dynamics 7. Workforce alignment to operating model 8. Allocation of resources more (cost) effectively 9. Timely, pro-active right sizing 10. Optimal mix of employment arrangements Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  32. 32. Why else (3) ? 11. Focus not only on “simple” headcount & metrics 12. Improved Return-on-Talent of HR investments 13. Pro-actively train, skills at risk or becoming outdated 14. Faster recognising & adapting than competition to emerging challenges, risk, changes & opportunities 15. Adapt more easily to shifting strategic priorities Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  33. 33. Why else (4) ? 16. Have (HR) scenario’s ready to anticipate changes 17.Lower levels of stress & absence 18.Increased critical talent retention 19.Mechanism monitoring WF cost development 20.Overall: create an adaptive, more flexible & agile organisation, ready to meet future challenges already 20 reasons to start with WFP! Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  34. 34. Why ? Recruiting view (1) 1. Input for recruitment strategy & hiring goals 2. Direction for short term recruiting priorities 3. More competitive in War-for-Talent 4. Target key talent groups more precisely 5. Realistic hiring expectations Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  35. 35. Why ? Recruiting view (2) 6. Improve hire efficiency & effectiveness 7. Optimize shape, structure & size of recruiting team 8. Recruit & refer more pro-actively 9. Target key talent groups more precisely 10.Improve make or buy (outsourcing) decisions Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  36. 36. Why ? Business view (1) • Maximizing workforce readiness & • Optimizing workforce composition • Minimizing workforce (management) costs to • Execute strategy & achieve objectives in an agile and resilient manner Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  37. 37. Why ? Business view (2) Developing the strategic & operational capability: • to align workforce with business plan • to anticipate wf developments & changes • to respond resilient to unexpected, unfore- seen changes in wf demands • to overall meet emerging, future wf needs, timely & cost effective Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  38. 38. Why ? Sustainable success no business plan without a workforce (HR) plan Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  39. 39. 2. Why WFP ? HR view Get a pretty good picture of what realistically needs to be done • to have the workforce • in the (near) future • as ready as possible for delivering business strategy & objectives Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  40. 40. Questions before the break 1. ………. 2. ………… 3. …………... 4. ………………. 5. …………………. Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  41. 41. Your questions ? Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  42. 42. Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  43. 43. Understanding WFP 1. What is WFP 2. Why WFP 3.When WFP 4. Who in WFP 5. How WFP Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  44. 44. 3. When WFP ? In today’s dynamic world: Ongoing, continuous process Regular review, update & adjust plans – external & internal dynamics – changing economic & business directions – new insights, more/better data & analytics Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  45. 45. When ? WFP is a strategic exercise • not a “one & done” annual exercise • not a short-term budgeting endeavour! Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  46. 46. When ? • Scope of process • Budget (review) cycle • Business scenario planning • Maturity of process, data, systems & culture • Rolling forecast validated & updated / real time data set, from Forecast to Nowcast Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  47. 47. When ? • How far into future for realist projections? • Time horizon “VUCA” realistic • Periodically update for accuracy & business alignment • Timing & dynamics of business environment Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  48. 48. When ? WFP Time Horizons Short term: Operational << 0,5 - 1 year Headcount focus Mid term: Tactical, 12 - 18 months Annual (performance) objectives focus Long term: Strategic, 3-5 years perspective Creating competitive advantage Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  49. 49. When ? Example Full WFP cycle: • Every 3 years (depending on VUCA context) strategic, tactical & operational planning + milestones to review outcomes • Annually reviewed & adjusted • Quarterly checked & updated • Real-time monitored (on dashboard) & taken notice of in operational execution Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  50. 50. When ? Agile WFP • Rolling forecasts • Agile planning • Data Driven, real time monitoring • Modelling & simulating (on demand) • Update & adjust when data indicate it Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  51. 51. When ? (from recruiting point of view) Data Driven Recruitment Recruiting Data Eco-system • Real time dashboard & insights • Data analytics offering intelligence • Ongoing checks on WFP status & outcomes • Responsive to changes & trends, adjusting plans / planning for hiring new talent Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  52. 52. 3. WFP When ? In today’s dynamic world WFP continuous, consistent & agile process build-in mechanisms to monitor & up-date for best possible business alignment & stakeholder trust & cooperation Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  53. 53. Understanding WFP 1. What is WFP 2. Why WFP 3. When WFP 4.Who in WFP 5. How WFP Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  54. 54. 4. Who ? • Who is owner of the WFP process? • Who are involved in the WFP development & implementation? • What competencies are required? Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  55. 55. Who ? Ownership&Involvement WFP Ownership: Senior manager highest level organisation WFP Involvement (Cooperation & Collaboration): Operational managers input & implementation Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  56. 56. Who ? WFP Involvement Stakeholder (cross-functional) cooperation & collaboration major WFP success factor applying (functional) technologies, tools & processes for valuable insights & input for WFP forecasting & planning accuracy Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  57. 57. Who ? WFP Involvement • ‘Top-down’ WFP doesn’t work • Not by HR team and/or planning office alone • Input, support & technical skills required (strong analytic capabilities, project management & financial expertise) • Hybrid process, both top-down & bottum-up • Mapping key stakeholders • Stage of process, role, focus & expertise • Outline all roles from start Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  58. 58. Who ? Getting active involvement Securing buy-in from managers by Role clarity & clear expectations • What’s “in it” for each stakeholder? ‒ Solve their problems, don’t just build capability! ‒ What short-term wins? ‒ What longer-term wins? • What does it, take/require? • Accountability for delivering Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  59. 59. Who ? Getting active involvement Securing buy-in from managers by • Transparency, no (black-box) numbers game • In-depth dialogue • open inquiry process • data (analytics) support • providing time & resources …. • incorporating WFP in perf. Mgmnt. review cycle NB. o Ensure confidentiality! Don’t make competition smarter than necessary! Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  60. 60. Who ? Taking the lead Program Manager / HR director Role: Drive, coordinate, support & oversee the: • WFP process development • Implementation WFP strategies & plans for an agile, future & change-ready organization Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  61. 61. Who ? Cooperation (top down & bottum-up) Board member / Director (owner) & Program Manager / HR director (taking lead) & Cross-functional & regional team(s) of line managers & snr. specialists (input & implementation) Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  62. 62. Who ? Stakeholder Mapping Non-HR (cross-functional) stakeholders: • Executives • Middle & senior business managers • Finance / Controlling • Marketing / Business Intelligence • Risk management • External HR & Information service partners • Business strategists Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  63. 63. Who ? Involve when for what? • Middle managers & professionals – providing input at functional/local level – implementing WFP plans at operational level • Senior managers & specialists – drawing together functional/local input into organisation’s strategic context – implementing WFP, ensuring business alignment Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  64. 64. Who ? Stakeholder Mapping HR disciplines • HR general management • HR Data, Information & Reporting • Training & Development • Recruitment • HR Compensation & Benefits • HR Career & Mobility Services • Diversity Management Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  65. 65. Who ? Stakeholder Mapping Recruitment disciplines • Sourcing Analyst(s) • Employer Branding Specialist(s) • Recruiter(s) • Recruitment Agency Partners • Labour Market Intelligence service providers • Various public labour market data agencies Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  66. 66. Who ? WFP Competencies & Skills WFP unique blend of competencies, skills & experience Finding people with having both process & technological skills can be quite difficult Therefore: WFP is collaborative, multi-disciplinary process & a learning journey, to start simple Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  67. 67. Who ? WFP Profile: Competencies • Highly numerical and analytical • Understanding of analytical methods & models • Vision & Helicopter view • Business acumen • Planning & organising • Pragmatic, result driven • Adaptability • Organisational & cultural sensitivity • Collaborative, team oriented • Communication verbally & in writing • Listening, advising & influencing Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  68. 68. 4. WFP Who ? WFP cooperative & collaborative effort HR, business leadership & key professionals at all levels C&C effort with clarity about roles & contribution to be delivered across the organisation Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  69. 69. Understanding WFP 1. What is WFP 2. Why WFP 3. When WFP 4. Who in WFP 5.How WFP Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  70. 70. 5. How ? WFP = Challenging WFP pretty complicated Requiring a framework, systems, models, tools, methods, expertise & experience It takes time to have it (all) in place ….. It is not cost-free and ………. Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  71. 71. How ? No single best way for WFP No one-size-fits-all approach But …… don’t start recreating the wheel!! Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  72. 72. How ? Traditional Barriers for WFP • Too ambitious, in view of complexity of working integrated, cross functional, cross regional • Stakeholders not prepared / trained • Time horizon too far, short term results motivate • Data integrity, how accurate are current data? • Forecasting lacking sufficiently projecting models • Copying process without vision & strategy Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  73. 73. How ? Start Simple!!! (but aim big!) Trying to run before you can walk doesn’t work! Tailor to specifics of organisation & its environment WFP will evolve with business maturity level Institutionalizing WFP as part of overall business planning Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  74. 74. How ? Past & Future Our knowledge is about the past Our decisions are about the future (Ian Wilson) ….. In times of turbulence the greatest danger is to act with yesterday’s logic! ….. (Peter Drucker) Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  75. 75. How ? WFP = strategic activity Creating framework for best possible, future ready decisions about • workforce shape, structure, capability & size • anticipation of uncertain future as good and realistic as possible Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  76. 76. How ? WFP Enablers (1) • Culture open for Data Driven Decision making? • Familiar/experience with scenario development? • Strategic direction & business strategy in place? • WFP (HR+ Business) Data Eco System available? • Monitoring & reporting system/tool available? • Collaborative, integrated, cross functional? • Common (HR) language for skills, competencies etc.? Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  77. 77. How ? WFP Enablers (2) • WFP integrated, company wide model in place? • Building on existing programs/initiatives already addressing scope of WFP process? • Using existing resources, strategic papers, data & expertise within & around the organisation? Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  78. 78. How ? a Simple Start • Step-by-step • Pilot to learn, develop proof of concept • Identifying added valueaddifferentlevels (see why) • Make final business case for integrally using WFP • Make plan for next step(s) Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  79. 79. How ? a Pilot to Start Pilot options: • Department(s) • Location(s) • Function(s) • Type / level of critical job(s) • Limited time horizon (2 years) • Add some WF questions to budget cycle • Using existing scenario’s & data sets Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  80. 80. How ? WFP Model Many organisations have a WFP model Most models are quite similar except for variations in terminology & the order of the processes Again: Don’t start recreating the wheel! Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  81. 81. How ? WFP Model Model depends on: • how easily be implemented & start • ease to tailor, flexibility & scalability of model • models being used in other business functions like Marketing & Supply Chain Management Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  82. 82. How ? WFP Model Model challenge: • Developing realistically (80-20 rule) ‒ don’t aim perfection in a dynamic world, focus on doing, experiencing, learning step-by-step ‒ fit level of professionalism of organisation ‒ enough sophistication for type of industry Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  83. 83. How ? WFP Model Building Blocks • Process • Data eco-system • Method(s) • Technology & Systems • Resources, Communication & Training Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  84. 84. How ? WFP Model Building Blocks • Process • Data eco-system • Method(s) • Technology & Systems • Resources, Communication & Training Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  85. 85. How ? Process characteristics • Continuous, ongoing, iterative • Integrated into strategic planning cycle • Transparent & “simple” with clear goals • Collaborative, multi disciplinary • Data driven insight • Analytics focus on past to forecast • Agile, adaptive, scalable & offering flexibility • Cost & time effective • Professional, efficient, consistent, practical Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  86. 86. How ? Process characteristics Traditional models: WFP process of consecutive stages However: in practice WFP may not be so clear-cut! • Usually stages may not proceed at an even pace • Speed / dynamics of business environment requires agility • Workforce planning does not take place in isolation Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  87. 87. How ? Process characteristics Modern / upcoming models: WFPconsistent,ongoing process,rollingforecasts with variability for necessary flexibility In today’s data driven business environment • Almost real time monitoring • Pro-active discussions about accuracy of WFP status • Input for more, situational, ad hoc in depth analysis • Faster & better adapt & adjust strategies & plans Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  88. 88. How ? Process 7 steps matter most: 1. Gather 2. Analyse 3. Assess 4. Anticipate 5. Act(ion) 6. Audit 7. Adapt (action) & Adjust (plan) to ensure providing the right structure, skills, and supply of qualified staff Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  89. 89. Questions before the break 1. ………. 2. ………… 3. …………... 4. ………………. 5. …………………. Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  90. 90. Your questions ? Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  91. 91. Time for a break Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  92. 92. How ? Step 1: Gather Data • WFP is a Data Driven Process • Without data, forecasting & planning doesn’t make real sense • Professional integrated data set = key (competitive) differentiator Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  93. 93. How ? WFP = Data Driven also because: • Increasing use of (HR) systems & tools • Growing interest for human capital info • Data becoming more available & refined • Workforce analytics, projective modelling options & expertise improving rapidly • Workforce Intelligence = differentiator • Transforming data into insight in VUCA world core to sustainable success, evidence based decisions Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  94. 94. How ? WFP Data Driven Success in WFP depends on the • detail, accuracy & reliability of the data & information sources • Without reliable data WFP is doomed to be a failure • Data governance is crucial for WFP as well Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  95. 95. How ? Model: Process & Data Process step 1: Gather Data & Information Model building block 2: Data eco-system Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  96. 96. How ? WFP Data Driven Data eco-system • Identified useful / relevant data sources • Consolidating • Developing uniform & consistent data set • Monitoring & updating options • Integrated, transparent, up-to-date & reliable Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  97. 97. WFP Data eco-system WFP data eco-system development • establishing corporate wide common (HR) data set • consolidate disparate data sources, connecting local & functional HR, Finance, Marketing etc. systems • developing or revamping HRIS Systems • requesting & gathering reliable, up-to-date data • analysing & understanding data relationships • identifying patterns & developing analytical models • deciding what, how & when to monitor & report Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  98. 98. HR Data eco-system Maturity Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters - Little to no HR reporting capability - Data in disparate systems and/or hard to access - If available, reporting is ad hoc and is a lengthy process - Little overall insight into org structure - One single data source or data warehouse for HR data - Reporting still may be difficult - Report users may still be skeptical of reporting results - Standardization of roles & org charts available - HR data available, standardized across the organization - Report users (HR and/or LOB leaders) can access reports quickly and easily - Reports do a good job with HR processes and general workforce measures - Global tool(s) for org modeling; addition of role variables /concepts: costs, potential, gaps, compression - Measures beyond HR measures begin to be introduced - Analytics are rolled out beyond just HR - Cross HR integration is possible (i.e. looking at turnover by performance) - Organization delivery modeling across company to look at different delivery and structure scenarios - Full integration between operations data, financial data and HR/Talent data - LOB Leaders use analytics provided by HR to make business decisions - Workforce Planning (predictive analytics) drives the talent management process - Optimization of org structure and who delivers work; full alignment with business strategy to optimize talent decisions Source: NakisaHCM Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  99. 99. WFP Data eco-system Basic Data Set Job Characteristics • Salary rates • Hours of work • Overtime hours • Hours worked by permanent & contract workers • Leave liabilities • Employment status (perm., temp, casual, contract) • Occupations • Qualifications • Skills / competencies • Training • Location Workforce Seize & Location • Number of FTE’s • Number of short term staff (temp., casual, contract) • Staff per location Demographics • Age profile • Gender profile • Other Diversity / EEO indicators • Grades / classifications of staff • Nationalities • Length of service & Retention data • Turnover & retirement data • Promotion data • New hire data • New hire profiles • Absenteeism patterns Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  100. 100. How ? WFP Gather data (input) Several kinds of input: • Data / facts / info, now having & knowing • Data & info external, collecting & buying • Opinions, questionnaires data • Assumptions • Uncertainties that can be quantified Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  101. 101. WFP input: Internal data references • Scenario, strategic planning expertise, system(s) & culture • Corporate objectives, pace & direction • Financial position, production & marketing objectives • Workforce demographics (age distribution, retirement, diversity, geography - location ) • Internal mobility (cross divisional, regional & functional) • Retention / turnover rates • Staff remuneration, performance management • Strength / quality of the current labour supply • Existing organisational shape & structure • New skills & experience required for changes in business • Mobility & employability culture, HRD, talent investment Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  102. 102. WFP input: External data references • Demand for the firm’s products & services • Seasonal peaks in market demand • Labour market trends, scarcity of (STEM) talent • Economic conditions, level of (un)employment • Technology & Tools developments, innovation • Social & political change (e.g. demographic factors) • Legislation (minimum wage, diversity, retirement) • Various specific local factors • Competition offering better pay terms Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  103. 103. WFP input: External data references Identifying for future workforce relevant • critical success factors • factors with direct impact on forecast result • unknowns / unclear factors • opportunities • threats • risks Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  104. 104. WFP input: Environment scan example Summary of trends & policy implications on workforce in UK NHS In developing a WFP taking into account: • An ageing workforce • Choice and personalised care • Promoting workforce diversity • Delivering efficiency requirements • Employment legislation – e.g. age discrimination • Major workforce redesign, reducing service input from doctors and encouraging health professionals to take on new roles • Feminisation of medicine – flexible training/career breaks • Increasing use of technology Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  105. 105. WFP input: External scan example Summary (2) In developing a WFP, NHS will have to take into account: • NH improvement policies driving new roles for staff, increasing flexibility & communication between primary & secondary care • Plurality of provision – increasing numbers of NHS staff working in or alongside private sector staff (staff secondments) • Reductions in waiting times • Speciality skills shortages • Staff retention – identifying reasons for exit, promoting people management policies • Workforce re-design, promoting flexibility across organisations • Work-life balance – part-time and flexible working Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  106. 106. WFP Data eco-system External Data Which sources to use? For example this kind of overviews: Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  107. 107. How ? WFP Gather data (input) From a recruiting point of view Data Driven Hiring key in modern recruitment Internet is the Talent Pool • Labour market data • Identification & monitoring of data about sources • Target group data specifics • Developing Data Driven Recruitment Personas • Analysing Recruitment metrics & KPI’s for insight Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  108. 108. How ? WFP Data Driven Beginning simple: • Use human capital data already (easily) available today • Analyse & measure what matters! • Scan corporate wide uniformity in data (set) no apples & pears! Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  109. 109. How ? Process 7 steps matter most: 1. Gather 2. Analyse 3. Assess 4. Anticipate 5. Act(ion) 6. Audit 7. Adapt (action) & Adjust (plan) to ensure providing the right structure, skills, and supply of qualified staff Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  110. 110. How ? Step 2: Analytics Challenge: Synthesising different sources of data to • analyse & monitor current situation • analyse & create a pro-active, data-driven insight on the (near) future workforce needs & • Developing supporting analytical model(s) • Automating data analytics • Developing collaborative, data driven process Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  111. 111. How ? From data to insight Data doesn’t narrow your choices It opens your mind — Venetia Taylor, Google, June 2015 Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  112. 112. How ? Continuous, up-to-date insight Workforce Intelligence (culture) • understanding workforce dynamics • real time insight • rolling forecast Moving from transactional, short term driven operations, to data driven, pro- active, more strategic execution of HR & Business strategy Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  113. 113. How ? From WFP data to insight 1 Data People statistics 2 Information Annual HR Plan 3 Insight HR analytics 4 Forecasts Workforce planning 5 Intelligence Rolling forecast & planning Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  114. 114. How ? Data Driven challenges (1) Understanding data relationships Example: McDonald's Restaurants Northern Europe and researchers from Manchester Metropolitan University found that stores with two or more members of staff over the age of 50 were 20% more profitable than others! So what could this mean for WFP?. Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  115. 115. How ? Data Driven challenges (2) Identifying trends & patterns By examining trends of past the effect of the same activity on organization’s future, could be more or less predicted, when assuming that these patterns will remain stable …… identify patterns: hiring-, retirement-, productivity-, turnover etc. Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  116. 116. How ? Data Driven challenges (3) Identifying factors with direct, measurable impact on forecasted workforce profile for • Model development • Developing metrics, ratio’s & algorithms • Simulation • Real time monitoring priorities Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  117. 117. How ? Data Driven challenges (4) Developing ability • to translate current & future business models into critical knowledge, technical skills & competencies ratios / parameters • to identify what is critical in short, medium & long term Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  118. 118. How ? Typical WFP Data, Example WF mobility, attrition / turn over data: Planned Needs for personnel arising from planned changes in organization & retirement Forecasted Those movements in personnel to be projected on basis of strategy & ambition, plans & (labour) market trends Unexpected Resignation, deaths, accidents, illness, customer problems, changed market conditions that give rise to unexpected needs Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
  119. 119. How ? Attrition Analysis sheet (examples) Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters
  120. 120. How ? Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl Future Present Past • No data, projections • Uncertain & Ambiguous • Assumptions • Scenarios • Moving & Changing • Complex • Data overload • Action • Certain, facts • Lot of data • Review, evaluation • Patterns
  121. 121. How ? Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl Future Present Past Current WF supply Future WF supply Forecast WF demand • Facts • Patterns • Parameters • Demographics • HR Policies • HR Programs Exploring • Trends • Scenarios • Assumptions Analysing & projecting • Analytics
  122. 122. How ? Analysing WF supply 1. Current workforce supply (quantity & quality) as starting point for WFP 2. Development of current WF to future workforce supply – demographics, careers & mobility etc. – past trends, ratio’s, metrics, policies & programs – understanding where workforce is headed & reason why 3. Workforce forecast = future demand Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  123. 123. How ? Analytics for WF profile 1. Understanding current WF profile data • Demographics & diversity • Job families / categories / levels / FTE’s • Location • Career progression & development paths • Loyalty, years of employment, retention • Strengths, weaknesses, core competencies, key skills & expertise Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  124. 124. How ? Analytics for WF profile Useful analyses include: • Turnover rates • Retention rates • Key / Top Performers • Separation rates • Mobility within the organisation • Vacancy patterns • Retirement patterns • Promotion patterns • Workload patterns • Leave patterns (sick, parental etc.) • Time taken to recruit • Skills shortage & oversupply • Achievement of EEO targets • Wages & salary costs • Turnover costs • Exit interviews findings • Employee perception survey • Customer service surveys Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  125. 125. How ? Analysing Profile Development 2. Understanding How current workforce could look like in 1,2,3,4 or 5 years time? • Historical HR trends, policies, programs & demographics • Payroll budget cap • Promotion & demotion rates • Attrition, exit rates • Retirement eligibility • Career paths • Succession plans & internal transfers • Hiring rates • Performance rate development • Etc. Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  126. 126. How ? Analysing WF supply 1. Current workforce supply starting point for WFP 2. Development of current WF workforce supply 3. Workforce forecast = future demand Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  127. 127. How ? Analysing Future WF Demand 3. Understanding external findings • What are workforce implications & issues? • Translate impact to required competencies, skills, numbers, locations, times, job structure, etc. • Usually not about “exact” numbers, but offering an order of magnitude of specific talent segments Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  128. 128. How ? Analysing Future WF Demand 3. Understanding exploration findings • How might existing business processes be enhanced or changed and what effect will that have on workforce needs? • Which changes will result in an increase or decease of work in any function and region? • Will any functions be consolidated, simplified, or made more complex? • Which work functions will remain unchanged? • Which work functions may be discontinued? • What are the potential new work functions? • How will divisions, work units, and jobs be redesigned? Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  129. 129. How ? Analysing for future Profiles 3. Developing future workforce profile How will ideal or desired workforce look like with regard to the most likely to happen business scenario(s)? • Demographics & diversity • Job families / categories / levels / FTE’s • Location • Skills, core competencies and key expertise • Shape, structure & size Result: Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  130. 130. How ? Process 7 steps matter most: 1. Gather 2. Analyse 3. Assess 4. Anticipate 5. Act(ion) 6. Audit 7. Adapt (action) & Adjust (plan) to ensure providing the right structure, skills, and supply of qualified staff Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  131. 131. Questions before the lunch 1. ………. 2. ………… 3. …………... 4. ………………. 5. …………………. Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  132. 132. Your questions ? Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  133. 133. Lunch Time Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  134. 134. NEXT Strategic Workforce Forecasting & Planning Part 2 Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl Alexander Crépin recruitment strategist, coach & trainer freelance, interim recruiting & management
  135. 135. Alexander Crépin
  136. 136. Thank You Thank you Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  137. 137. Also on by Alexander Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
  138. 138. End! Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl

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