Presented by Dr. Pulhin at the Mindanao Conference on Climate Change

1. Social Dimensions of
Climate Change
Juan M. Pulhin, Ph.D.
Professor and UP Scientist II
UP Los Baños
Mindanao Climate Change Conference
June 10 –12, 2009
Marco Polo Hotel, Davao City

2. Outline of Presentation
The Philippines and Climate Change – A
Recap
Social Impacts of Climate Change
The Case of Pantabangan-Carranglan
Watershed
Summary and Implications
2

3. Projected Climate Change in RP
• More prominent ENSO events and a shift in
seasonal cycle
• Increase chances of summer droughts and
floods
• Increase in tropical cyclone intensities is
suggested
• Potential sea level rise

4. The Philippines and Climate Change
From 1951
to
2006, recor
ds show
that
warming
has
occurred in
the country

5. The Philippines and Climate Change
Occurrence
of ENSO
events was
observed to
become
more
frequent
since 1980
Legend:
3 = strong El Niño event 2 = moderate El Niño event 1 = weak El Niño event
-3 = strong La Niña event -2 = moderate La Niña event -1 = weak La Niña event
0 = no El Niño or La Niña event

6. The Philippines and Climate Change
An increasing
trend on the
number of
strong typhoons
( > 185 kph wind
speed) hitting
the Philippines

7. The Philippines and Climate Change
• Rising sea
levels, one of
the indicators
that climate
change is
occurring
• Annual mean sea level is observed to increase
since 1960s while for the rest of the stations, sea
level rise occurred in 1970s

8. (Sources: GRID Arendal/
Pachauri, 2003)
General CC Impacts

9. Key Observed C-related Impacts in RP
Average Yearly Damages from Typhoons
(1975-2000)
• Annual deaths of 593
• 4.5 B pesos damage to property ($83 M)
• 3 B pesos damage to agriculture($55 M)
• Strong typhoons + excessive rains =
landslides

10. Key Observed CC Impacts in RP

11. CC: Could exacerbate water scarcity
Streamflow
• Increase average annual runoff and
water availability in some wet areas
by 10-40%

12. Could exacerbate water scarcity
• Exacerbates water stress due to
increasing demand
• 10-30% decrease in dry areas
which are already water stressed

13. Could exacerbate water related extreme
events
Droughts
Droughts

14. Could exacerbate water related extreme
events
2004 Floods & Landslides in
Aurora and Quezon

15. Could exacerbate water related extreme
events
Flashfloods

16. Could exacerbate water related extreme
events
Landslides

17. Impacts on children, their
families and communities:
• A widespread increase in the risk of
flooding for many human settlements
from both increased heavy precipitation
events and sea level rise. 17

18. Could exacerbate water related extreme
events
Other Disasters Triggered by Excessive
Rains:
Southern Leyte-Surigao disaster in
2003
Camiguin flashfloods in 2001
Payatas garbage slide in 2000
Cherry Hill tragedy in 1999
Ormoc catastrophe in 1991

19. Could decrease crop production
In seasonally dry areas 1-2 OC - rise in
temperature could lead to
Increase in irrigation requirement
Decrease in freshwater availability
Damages due to floods, droughts,
typhoons
Affects flowering of plants
Decrease in productivity of rice, corn as in
1983 and 1998

20. Could decrease crop production
Corn
Source: Lansigan and Salvacion, 2007

21. Could decrease crop production
Major Corn Average
Producing Annual Area
Areas Harvested
(ha)
Region 2 290415
Region 7 245606
Region 9 183783
Region 10 395293
Region 11 198268
Region 12 472838
ARMMM 300679

22. Could decrease crop production
Major Corn Average
Producing Annual Area
Areas Harvested
(ha)
Region 2 290415
Region 7 245606
Region 9 183783
Region 10 395293
Region 11 198268
Region 12 472838
ARMMM 300679

23. Impacts on children, their
families and communities:
• Increase in food competition and hunger
. 23

24. • Frequent occurrence of forest fires
24

25. Could increase food scarcity and hunger
• Subsistence farmers will be most
vulnerable
• Inequitable access to food will
exacerbate impact on poor
• Poor farmers will be less able to adapt

26. Could destroy marine and coastal
ecosystems
• Dry spell affected 20.6% of
brackishwater fishponds in 1998
• Milkfish and seaweed production
dropped by 10-80%
• Fishkills and high mortality of
cultured giant clams in 1997-98
ENSO

27. Could destroy marine and coastal
ecosystems
Temperature increases beyond 1.5-2.5 degrees C
could cause
• Coral bleaching due to CO2 acidification
• Massive coral bleaching in 1998

28. Sea level rise could damage mangroves,
coastal areas and corals
Sea level rise will:
• Extend salt water intrusion and
affect groundwater
• Affect mangroves
• Inundate coastal farms
• Increase flood risks for settlement
areas and infrastructure

29. Could increase incidence of vector and
water borne diseases
Dengue
Malaria
Cholera

30. Could affect livelihood of poor
communities
• Upland farming
• Collection of forest products
• Fishing
• Logging
• Handicrafts

31. • Adverse psycho-social impacts on children
31

32. Could mean poor Presidential Task Force
on Climate Change
access to basic
needs and social
services such as
food, clothing,
shelter, water,
education

33. Bottom Line: Drag on economy and
sustainable development
•Loss of lives
•Destroy infra
•Loss of income
and livelihood
•More sickness
•More conflict/
competition
•Breakdown of
local institutions
•Poor to poorer

34. CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND EXTREMES IN PCW
}
4 4
El Niño (1-3) or La Niña (-1 - -3) event
El Niño (1-3) and La Niña (-1 - -3) event
3 3
2 2 El Nino
1 1
0 0 Normal
}
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
OND
OND
OND
OND
OND
OND
OND
OND
OND
OND
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
JFM
OND
OND
OND
OND
OND
OND
OND
OND
OND
OND
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
AMJ
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
JAS
-1 -1
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
-2 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
-2 La Nina
-3 -3
Source: PAGASA
-4 -4
El Nino and La Nina events in the Philippines, 1980-1999.
Year Year
• Drought or El Nino events
Floods from
• Prolonged rains
destructive typhoons
• Delay in the onset of rainy
season
Dried river
• Early onset of rainy season
• Destructive typhoons

35. Summary of General Impacts of CV&E
to Local Communities
Areas of General
concern Impacts
Food availability (-)
Crop yield (+) (-)
Water availability (+) (-)
Livelihood (-)
Health (-)
Infrastructure (-)

36. Impacts and Vulnerability of Various
Socioeconomic Groups to CV&E
Groups Impacts Degree of Vulnerability
(-) Impacts
Better-off ↓ production & Better coping
farmers income; ↔ food, mechanism - low
livelihood, health vulnerability
“Little”
↓ production, Poor coping
food, livelihood, mechanism – high
farmers vulnerability
health; more debt
“Average” coping
↑ price of
Employees mechanism –
commodities moderately vul.
Business- ↓ in sales “Average” coping
persons mechanism –
(small-scale) moderately vul.

37. LOCATION OF VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND PLACES IN BRGY. D.L.
MAGLANOC, CARRANGLAN
F.C. OTIC
NORT
H
TO SAN JOSE PROVINCIAL ROAD TO CONVERSION Pantabangan N.E.
MUN. HALL RESIDENTIAL
RESIDENTIAL
G.S. ROSARIO
RESIDENTIAL
SAN VICENTE
RESIDENTIAL
SAN FRANCISCO ST.
RESIDENTIAL
LEGEND :
SAN JOAQUIN
BETTER-OFF FARMERS
SAN BALTAZAR ST.
“SMALL” FARMERS
EMPLOYEES
BUSINESSPERSONS
MALBAN
G CREEK VULNERABLE AREAS

38. Factors affecting vulnerability:
1. Geographic location 2. Socioeconomic factors
- Farm income (+)
- Household size (+)
- High - Monthly food expenditures (-)
- Moderate
- Farm distance to market (+)
- Number of organizations joined (+)
- Low - Farm size (+)
- GPS Points - Sex (women more vulnerable than men)
- Ethnic affiliation (migrants more vulnerable)
- Number of organizations joined (+)
- Land ownership (-)
3. Contextual factors
- Dependency on development
Level of vulnerability by land use types and projects/programs
location of vulnerable places as identified by local - Lack of enabling national policies
communities (GPS points) and and institutional support
- Inequitable social structure

39. Responses to Climate Change
39

40. Responding to Climate Change
Adaptation
increases resilience and
capacity to cope with current
and future changes in climate
reduces adverse effects of
climate change and capitalize
on opportunities
But maladaptation can
exacerbate adverse impacts
and further compound
vulnerability

41. How should we respond to Climate Change?
How about this?
41

42. Responses to Climate Change
Or this?
42

43. Responses to Climate Change
This?
43

44. Responses to Climate Change
And this?
44

45. Really,
HOW SHOULD
WE RESPOND?
45

46. Adaptation Practices employed by
households in PCW
ALFONSO-
PANTABANGAN CARRANGLAN MA. AURORA
ADAPTATION PRACTICES CASTAÑEDA TOTAL (N=374)
(N=137) (N=198) (N=17)
(N=22)
Freq* % Freq* % Freq* % Freq* % Freq* %
Reduce consumption 104 75.91 143 72.22 16 94.12 15 68.18 278 74.33
Pray or make offerings to Anito
88 64.23 126 63.64 10 58.82 16 72.73 240 64.17
Avail of loans/credit facility 79 57.66 119 60.10 10 58.82 13 59.09 221 59.09
Store food, firewood, medicine
and water 70 51.09 120 60.61 7 41.18 19 86.36 216 57.77
Community and kinship ties 72 52.55 86 43.43 7 41.18 11 50.00 176 47.06
Off-farm work 49 35.77 60 30.30 5 29.41 8 36.36 122 32.62
Seek government/ NGO
assistance 33 24.09 71 35.86 7 41.18 6 27.27 117 31.28
Treebelts/wind breaks/
Hedgerows 36 26.28 36 18.18 2 11.76 19 86.36 93 24.87
Crop diversification 39 28.47 42 21.21 6 35.29 4 18.18 91 24.33
Asset disposal 33 24.09 44 22.22 2 11.76 5 22.73 84 22.46
Forecast natural
hazards/disasters based from
community’s/ indigenous 16 11.68 9 4.55 8 36.36 33 8.82
traditional knowledge
* multiple responses
Source: Peras (2005)

47. Summary of Adaptation Practices of Various
Socioeconomic Groups in PCW
Socioecono- Examples of Perceived Recommendations
mic Groups Adaptation Effectiveness
High interest loan; Some effective; Establish cooperative; don’t
plant vegetables allow entrance of imported
Poor farmers others not
along river bank; products; prioritize poor
rotate irrigation water farmers in livelihood projects
Average Plant vegetables Mostly Provide marketing
along river bank; assistance/support; provide
Farmers/ Effective
Engage in other other sources of livelihood
fisher folks sources of livelihood
Employees/ Avail of government Mostly Institute “price watch” to
loans; store food protect consumers from
small Effective
supply and other prices
entrepreneurs farm inputs
Rich farmers Store food grains & Effective Lend money to poor farmers
farms inputs; lend with low interest
money /farm inputs
to poor farmers

48. Summary and Implications
 Given the same climate stressors, vulnerability
varies among different households and
socioeconomic groups depending on:
their access to production resources and other assets
options to live or have their assets in less vulnerable
areas
effectiveness of adaptation strategies.
 Broader societal, policy and institutional contexts
can exacerbate the adverse impacts of extreme
and variable climate that can compound the
vulnerability of certain households/group(s).

49. Summary and Implications
Poor people, women and children are
generally more vulnerable to CV&E and
have lesser capacity to adapt due to:
lack of/limited access to productive base
(human, natural, and manufactured capital)
past faulty development approach that created
sense of dependency among local communities
limited/inappropriate policy and institutional
mechanism that provides assistance to the poor
inequitable social structure

50. Summary and Implications
Households and socioeconomic groups in
different ecosystems apply different
strategies to reduce their present
vulnerability to CV&E
Some adaptation strategies are innovative
and effective, however, some further
contribute to their already vulnerable
condition

51. Summary and Implications
Integrated climate change impact,
vulnerability and adaptation assessments
should be based on sound science
Highlights the necessity of action-research
types of engagements
Need to partner with academic and
research institutions and related
organizations like PAGASA

52. Summary and Implications
Participatory impact, vulnerability and
adaptation assessments have the
following benefits:
Generates public awareness and interest on the
issue
Promotes dialogue with local communities
Increases the chances of enhancing local
adaptation
Complements existing assessment methods like
the use of vulnerability index and GIS application,
thereby make the assessment more robust
Strengthen research-policy interlink

53. Summary and Implications
Addressing vulnerability and enhancing
adaptive capacity should include
among others
Creating responsive policies and
programs that will reduce
vulnerability and enhance adaptive
capacity by building on experiences
of local communities and institutions
Targeting the poor and other more
vulnerable groups in adaptation
planning

54. Summary and Implications
Addressing vulnerability and enhancing
adaptive capacity should include
among others
Building institutional capacity to
anticipate and effectively respond to
variable and extreme climate events
Empowering the local communities
to broaden their range of choices of
appropriate strategies rather than
making them dependent on
unsustainable external support.

55. CONCLUSION
2007 IPCC Report
concludes that:
Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal
This has adverse impacts in both
natural and human systems
particularly the most vulnerable
sectors – poor, women and children

56. 56

57. Everyone has an
important role to play
for this generation to
take the second choice
57

58. Our future and the future of
our children depends on how
well we prepare and adapt to
changing climate NOW!!!

59. Daghan
Salamat!
59