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SPUR + TransbayCoalition-Project Delivery Workshop 1 08.31.22.pdf

SPUR + TransbayCoalition-Project Delivery Workshop 1 08.31.22.pdf

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Presentation from Laura Tolkoff of SPUR, presented on August 31, 2022 on Transit Megaprojects: What goes wrong and how to fix it.

Presentation from Laura Tolkoff of SPUR, presented on August 31, 2022 on Transit Megaprojects: What goes wrong and how to fix it.

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SPUR + TransbayCoalition-Project Delivery Workshop 1 08.31.22.pdf

  1. 1. Transit Megaprojects: What Goes Wrong and How to Fix It August 31, 2022
  2. 2. ● Welcome ● Purpose ● Introductions ● Megaproject Challenges and Solutions ○ Karen Trapenberg-Frick, UC Berkeley ○ Laura Tolkoff, SPUR ● Discussion ● Preview Today
  3. 3. 1. Share research and information about common challenges that megaprojects face. 2. Grow understanding of potential portfolio-scale solutions to these challenges. 3. Raise awareness about MTC’s upcoming Major Project Advancement Policy, a regional effort to reduce megaproject risks 4. Raise awareness about regional rail and network management initiatives to strengthen agency capabilities Purpose of Series Meeting 1: Common Challenges/ Solutions Meeting 2: Major Project Advancement Policy (likely end of Oct)
  4. 4. MORE FOR LESS How to plan and deliver the Bay Area’s next generation of transit projects more quickly and cost-effectively https://www.spur.org//more-less
  5. 5. It regularly takes decades to fund and build a single project.
  6. 6. Our costs far exceed comparable projects in other countries.
  7. 7. We regularly underestimate project costs.
  8. 8. $389 BN Cost of state-of-good repair, operations, and maintenance over 30 years $100 BN “Megaprojects” “For rail projects, an average cost overrun of 44.7 percent combines with an average demand shortfall of 51.4 percent.” - Bent Flyvbjerg, 2016 Nearly half of the Bay Area’s GDP (2019) and $100 BN+ more than we can afford.
  9. 9. Why? ● Project list exceeds available resources. ● When projects cost too much and take too long, we get less of them. ● Smaller - but no less important - projects can get crowded out. ● Higher capital costs can sometimes result in service cuts. ● Public trust is essential to transit’s business model.
  10. 10. “Brown Wednesday”, September 9, 2020 A climate emergency.
  11. 11. Too little service to give people real mobility and access.
  12. 12. We need to stop diving alone.
  13. 13. Key Challenges 1. Fragmented governance and funding gets in the way of defining shared vision for both the transit network and individual projects. 2. Poor cost estimation skews project selection and has cascading impacts through the life of a project. 3. Transit agencies deliver major projects just once in a generation, making them vulnerable to first timer mistakes. 4. Lack of flexibility and experience in choosing and managing procurement and project delivery models. 5. CEQA exposes projects to litigation risk that can degrade and delay projects when used inappropriately.
  14. 14. Big Idea #1: Improve regional transportation planning so that the projects that offer the best value are advanced.
  15. 15. Stronger network planning
  16. 16. Stronger network planning
  17. 17. Recommendations 1. Expand MTC’s authority to act as the region’s transit network planner. 2. Develop a long-term strategic plan for a seamless network of transit and managed highway lanes to guide capital investments. 3. Establish a stage gate process to determine project readiness. 4. Rigorously evaluate the project business case and deliverability options, especially before making financial and political commitments. 5. Establish integrated project management teams.
  18. 18. Big Idea #2: Expand and centralize project procurement and delivery expertise to drive public sector excellence for the delivery of the region’s most significant transit projects
  19. 19. Recommendations 6. Establish Infrastructure Bay Area, a project delivery entity responsible for driving public sector excellence for the delivery of the region’s most significant transit projects.
  20. 20. Infrastructure Bay Area’s Role
  21. 21. Big Idea #3: Remove regulatory obstacles that add undue delay, cost and uncertainty.
  22. 22. Recommendations 9. Establish a statewide certification process for major transit projects over $1 billion to reduce uncertainty and delay. 10. Give statutory exemptions to bus rapid transit, bicycle enhancement projects and pedestrian improvements.
  23. 23. The Good News
  24. 24. Key Regional Efforts ● MTC Major Project Advancement Policy ○ Late 2022/ Early 2023 Commission Approval (Policy/ Risk Management) ○ SPUR program: September 12, 2022 ● Regional Rail Study ○ Concluding this fall ○ SPUR program: November 10, 2022 ● Connected Network Plan ○ Upcoming

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