B2 2-albert chen

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B2 2-albert chen

  1. 1. A. S. Chen, M. J. Hammond, S. Djordjević, D. Butler Flood damage assessment for urban growth scenarios
  2. 2. Outline • Introduction • Methodology • Assessment tool • Conclusions International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  3. 3. Introduction Drivers and pressures Flood hazard assessment Vulnerability / impact assessment Responses and resilience strategies International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  4. 4. Introduction International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  5. 5. Introduction Tangible Intangible Direct Physical damage to assets •Buildings •Contents •Infrastructure Loss of life Injuries Diseases Loss of ecological goods Indirect Loss of industrial production Traffic disruption Emergency costs Inconvenience of post-flood recovery Increased vulnerability of survivors International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  6. 6. Introduction Image source: Google map International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  7. 7. Flood damage assessment Damage Depth Depth-Damage Curves (DDC) Land uses International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  8. 8. Depth-damage curves (DDC) The Benefits of Flood and Coastal Risk Management: A Handbook of Assessment Techniques-2010 (Multi-Coloured Manual), Middlesex University, UK International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  9. 9. Hazard-vulnerability function Damage Hazard information Vulnerability Building content/ construction damage Flood depth (and duration) Financial loss Building construction damage Flood velocity (and duration) Building resistance Pedestrian safety Flood depth Human physical resistance Pedestrian safety Flood velocity Human physical resistance Driving safety Flood depth Vehicle resistance Driving safety Flood velocity Vehicle resistance Human body health Contamination concentration (and duration) Human body resistance International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  10. 10. Health-impact assessment Health Impact Contamination Contamination -Health Impact Curves Demographic data Mortality Depth Depth- Mortality Curves (DDC) Demographic data International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  11. 11. Urban growth prediction 2004 baseline Dhaka urban growth model (UGM) prediction 2050 BAU high
  12. 12. Reality vs. UGM prediction Legend Others Commercial Activity Education & Research Governmental Services Mixed Use Manufacturing & Processing Activity Residential
  13. 13. Reality vs. UGM prediction 0 180 36090 m ± Legend Others Commercial Activity Education & Research Governmental Services Mixed Use Manufacturing & Processing Activity Residential International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  14. 14. Development environment • Standard GIS data format adopted • Integrated with DHI MIKE software • Python scripts and Geoprocessing functions within ESRI ArcGIS software • Minimum manual input to calculate the flood damage • Transportable to other GIS software packages/platforms • Separate executable programs for additional functions International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  15. 15. Reality – UGM correlation International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  16. 16. Reality vs. UGM prediction Land cover class Building use Comm. Activity Edu. & Resear. Gove. Services Mixed Use Manuf. & Proc. Activity Residenti al 1 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 2 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 10.3% 3 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 16.6% 4 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 21.4% 5 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 2.0% 1.4% 26.5% 6 3.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 31.5% 7 4.1% 0.8% 0.2% 3.6% 4.5% 33.9% 8 6.3% 0.8% 0.3% 5.9% 7.4% 30.8% 9 9.8% 0.9% 0.5% 12.6% 8.4% 21.4% 10 11.0% 1.2% 0.5% 36.4% 2.8% 12.6% International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  17. 17. Flood damage per building International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  18. 18. Flood damage per unit area International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  19. 19. Local comparison International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  20. 20. Citywide comparison Building use type Damage (USD) Comm. Activity 154,361 Edu. & Resear. 54,519 Gove. Services 27,274 Mixed Use 652,138 Manuf. & Proc. Activity 275,122 Residential 3,514,702 Total 4,678,115 Land cover class Damage (USD) 1 208,660 2 399,085 3 461,626 4 576,391 5 860,895 6 1,027,854 7 1,239,475 8 737,415 9 348,880 10 193,718 Total 6,053,999 International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  21. 21. UGM prediction 2004 baseline 2050 BAU high
  22. 22. UGM prediction 2004 baseline 2050 BAU high International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  23. 23. Future damage International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  24. 24. Conclusions • GIS-based tool for flood damage assessment • Capable utilising the hydraulic modelling results directly • Evaluate the flood damage efficiently • Associate the land cover classes to the current reality, correlation to be improved • Applied to assess flooding damage for future urban growth • Possible applications for different hazard-vulnerability analyses and other future scenarios International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  25. 25. Acknowledgements • Research on the CORFU (Collaborative research on flood resilience in urban areas) project was funded by the European Commission through Framework Programme 7, Grant Number 244047. • The authors appreciate the Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) for the provision of case study data and William Veerbeek for the UGM modelling results. International Conference on Flood Resilience: Experiences in Asia and Europe, 5-7 September 2013, Exeter, UK
  26. 26. Thank you and questions? Further information: http://corfu7.eu Contact: a.s.chen@ex.ac.uk

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