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2014 research in the UK retail and FMCG sectors
Alastair Campbell
willwechange.com
What role do feelings, logic and manage...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Summary
Development OpportunityIdea Research
Researc...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Over 85 percent of all pancreatic cancers are diagno...
We have a similar problem in
changing organisations
85% of pancreatic cancers are diagnosed late because diagnostics are t...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
ISOLATE
INDICATORS
DEVELOP
CHEAP TEST
Dramatic
impro...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
A different approach
6
When I didn’t
change
When I
ch...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved 7
Qualitative
330
people1
1 tool20 years
Quantitativ...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
We found two kinds of factors predict success
8
What...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
‘Hard’ beliefs
9
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
There is a ...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
‘Hard’ beliefs quantified
10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Feelings
11
The second way in which our research bro...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Feelings quantified
12
7 feelings make the difference
...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
A sample diagnostic: ‘Hard’ beliefs
13
Using our res...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
A sample diagnostic: Feelings
14
Included
Clear
Resp...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Simple traffic light ‘envelope of success’
15
0%
20%
4...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
A sample dashboard
16
Having developed a traffic light...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Summary
17
INDICATORS
ISOLATED
CHEAP
AND SIMPLE
TEST...
© Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved
Summary
Alastair Campbell

al@willwechange.com
+44(0...
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Why do we change? Quantifying feelings and tipping points for change

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People tell me we're onto something here. We spent twenty years researching beliefs and feelings driving change in behaviour. In 2014 we tested this with 50 leading businesses including Unilever, Nestle and Sainsbury's.
We developed a tool to compare feelings in any change initiative to identified tipping points for change in behaviour. This allows you to target your change management tactics where they will have most impact (and avoid wasting effort on factors where the tipping point is already reached.
I'd be interested to hear your feedback on the research on al@willwechange.com.
Subscribe at www.willwechange.com for updates.

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Why do we change? Quantifying feelings and tipping points for change

  1. 1. 2014 research in the UK retail and FMCG sectors Alastair Campbell willwechange.com What role do feelings, logic and managers’ behaviour play in making individuals change their behaviour at work? Why do we change?
  2. 2. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved Summary Development OpportunityIdea Research Research quantified the ‘tipping points’ for each indicator in success There were some significant surprises A simple 12 question survey tool can predict success or failure and highlight what to do about it Massively improve success rates in change by repeating diagnostic to continually target investment Easy and cheap to use, easy to act on and repeat to refine results Applicable in any sector Cancer survival rates are being transformed by using big data and open research to develop cheap and simple diagnostics to spot cancer early and target treatment early. Why can’t we use similar techniques to transform success rates in organisational change? Research on beliefs and feelings experienced in successful change carried out by Jon Dean at Celebrate the Corners and Alastair Campbell over 20 years We tested these indicators quantitatively in 2014 with a large sample of UK participants from leading retail and FMCG businesses 2
  3. 3. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved Over 85 percent of all pancreatic cancers are diagnosed late, when someone has less than two percent chance of survival. How could this be? Jack Andraka developed a promising early detection test for pancreatic cancer that’s super cheap, effective and non-invasive — before his16th birthday. Making the test 100 times cheaper and simple makes early diagnosis possible, so survival radically improves… From www.ted.com all rights reserved 3
  4. 4. We have a similar problem in changing organisations 85% of pancreatic cancers are diagnosed late because diagnostics are too expensive or complex to administer. 
 
 98% of people diagnosed late with pancreatic cancer die of the disease.
 
 Surveys consistently report that 70% of change initiatives fail to deliver planned benefits despite massive investment in making change happen.
 
 Failure is diagnosed late after expensive investment and by then it’s too late and expensive to treat.
 
 Most investment in leading and enabling change is made based on a ‘one size fits all’ model or the leader’s or change agent’s most recent experience, which leads to the 70% failure.
 
 So can we apply some of the features of Andraka’s approach to this similar- sounding problem with change management? CANCER 85% CHANGE 70% 4
  5. 5. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved ISOLATE INDICATORS DEVELOP CHEAP TEST Dramatic improvement opportunity Develop a cheap and simple way to test for presence of those indicators Andraka approach Find the things that indicate the presence of cancer by studying large volumes of historic data Roll out the cheap and simple test to many more people Act on results, track outcomes and continually refine the test Develop a cheap and simple tool to test for the presence of these across a whole organisation or teams in an organisation Cheap and simple enough to be used regularly to track status nearer ‘real time’ Our approach Find factors that indicate future success or failure of a change initiative Roll out the cheap and simple test to many organisations Act on the results, track outcomes and continually refine the test Concept 5
  6. 6. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved A different approach 6 When I didn’t change When I changed What I did Much historic research has asked ‘leaders’ of change about the methods they used when they believed they succeeded and what they choose to blame for past failed initiatives. We felt this was flawed as it is disproportionately affected by cognitive biases including self- serving bias, hindsight bias and over-confidence bias. Many of those research projects end up blaming ‘middle management’ or ‘resistance to change’ for failure. These are not very actionable insights. Our approach was different in that both quantitative and qualitative elements asked people to reflect on when they had either changed or not changed their own personal behaviour as part of specific change initiatives at work. We did not seek the views of those people who sponsored or worked on the change initiatives - we simply asked the ‘end user’ of change.
  7. 7. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved 7 Qualitative 330 people1 1 tool20 years Quantitative Toolkit Method Our qualitative research phase lasted twenty years. Our quantitative phase covered 330 individuals feeding back on two initiatives each across >50 organisations and more than 500 initiatives in total. 1. Retail research organisation IGD invited more than 1,000 participants from their members including Co-operative, Morrison, Nestle, Sainsbury’s, Unilever, United Biscuits to respond to the quantitative survey. 330 people responded and attended events where Alastair Campbell presented survey findings. Jon Dean of ‘Celebrate the Corners’ worked over 20 years to identify beliefs and feelings that were present when people changed their behaviour.
 He used primary research with participants in change management courses as well as secondary research. We developed a means to measure these beliefs and feelings. In 2014 we proved the validity of these factors quantitatively. We worked with the UK retail and FMCG sector with support from retail research organisation IGD. Participants included Nestle, Sainsbury’s, Unilever, and United Biscuits. >500 initiatives Simple tool predicts success or failure of initiative using a quantified ‘envelope of success’. The tool also precisely targets areas for action.
  8. 8. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved We found two kinds of factors predict success 8 What people see and believe about the change. This includes the factors typically included in change methodologies ‘Hard’ beliefs Feelings The way people feel about their involvement in the change. This was new.
  9. 9. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved ‘Hard’ beliefs 9 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% There is a clear need for the change The right solution is being used to deliver the change The change was good and provided a fair future for those impacted The transition process was feasible Leaders in the organisation demonstrated their commitment to the change through their own actions The list of factors here will be very familiar to most people. Similar lists have been developed in a wide variety of change management methodologies. Our research broke new ground in two ways. Firstly, we quantified the degree to which each factor was present in more than 300 different situations where individuals changed their behaviour and more than 300 situations where people didn’t change their behaviour. Our data is based on asking the end user about what they ACTUALLY changed, not sponsors or people attempting to manage change. Most people looking at our research find it an interesting
 exercise to try to draw two lines on this chart: • One line to show the extent to which each factor was 
 believed to be present across our sample of 330 people 
 in situations when they changed their behaviour. • A second line to show the 
 extent to which each factor 
 was believed to be present 
 across our sample of 330 
 people in situations when they
 chose not to change 
 their behaviour
  10. 10. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved ‘Hard’ beliefs quantified 10 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% There was a clear need for the change The right solution was used to deliver the change The change was good and provided a fair future for those impacted Other The transition process was feasible Leaders in the organisation demonstrated their commitment to the change through their own actions I changed I didn't change The ‘Big 5’ factors make the difference 
 Very few respondents raised other factors as significant in making them 
 change (or not). And the difference between success and failure for 
 these other factors was much smaller than any of ‘the big 5’. Without a clear case for change FORGET IT
 Almost no initiative succeeded without this - this 
 means you ALWAYS NEED this. But it’s not 
 sufficient - 60% of initiatives with this still failed. 
 It’s important to note this is not just the external 
 organisational case for change. It is the 
 case for change felt by the individual. 
 Often this requires tactics beyond compelling 
 communication of the external case for change. Demonstrable leader commitment was less 
 important than most people believe
 We found that this was the least important of 
 the big 5 factors - so arguably leaders can 
 best invest their time in delivering the other 
 four factors, rather than personal role modelling 
 of the change. People sabotage change they find unfair
 95% of people changing their behaviour believed the change to be ‘good and fair’. The average in ‘no change’ situations was 40%.

  11. 11. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved Feelings 11 The second way in which our research broke new ground was in identifying and quantifying a set of feelings which are felt to different extents when individuals changed their behaviour and when they chose not to change their behaviour. The set of feelings was identified over twenty years of qualitative research with participants on change management courses as well as secondary research on change management methods. Again, we quantified the degree to which 
 people reported experiencing these feelings
 in situations where they changed 
 their behaviour and where they 
 chose not to change their behaviour. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Included Clear Responsible Equipped Confident Valued Motivated
  12. 12. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved Feelings quantified 12 7 feelings make the difference
 Each of these feelings was experienced in a minimum of 75% of situations where people changed their behaviour.
 
 Yet none proved to be essential in all situations: RESPONSIBLE and MOTIVATED were reported in 88% of situations where people changed, with INCLUDED being reported in 86% of cases. 
 
 Yet these feelings were reported in at least 35% of situations when they chose NOT to change their behaviour. These feelings can be addressed in a logical sequence
 Most audiences we have shown these findings to observe 
 that there is some potential sequencing of actions to create 
 these feelings.
 
 Feeling INCLUDED and VALUED often happens as a result of early involvement, recognition and being listened to. Opinions then differ about the typical sequencing of other feelings. It appears that people have different personal ‘recipes for success’ for sequencing activities to generate these feelings. This demonstrates the value of using the tool throughout an initiative to track the ongoing progress in developing these feelings to the threshold required for success. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Included Clear Responsible Equipped Confident Valued Motivated I changed I didn't change
  13. 13. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved A sample diagnostic: ‘Hard’ beliefs 13 Using our results as a benchmarking tool is 
 potentially very powerful. It allows the 
 level of beliefs and feelings generated 
 in a change initiative to be compared with 
 thresholds for success. Then you can direct
 activity based on data rather than anecdotes 
 or personal ‘recipes for success’.
 
 The graph opposite shows feedback from a simple
 survey of people impacted by a particular change 
 at two points in the early delivery of the change.
 
 The dark blue dashed line shows that in the survey 
 in Month 1, the initiative was just getting going and 
 was nowhere near the threshold needed for success 
 on any of the ‘hard beliefs’.
 
 The lighter blue dotted line shows the Month 2 survey, 
 where substantial investment had been made in demonstrable 
 leadership commitment. This showed that the initiative was well into the success zone on this one dimension, but still well in the failure zone on other important measures. Arguably, investment could be redirected away from actions that demonstrate leadership commitment. This investment could then be targeted on actions to ensure then demonstrate that the right solution is being adopted and that the change is fair. There is a clear need for the change The right solution is being used to deliver the change The change is good and provides a fair future for those impacted The transition process is feasible Leaders in the organisation demonstrate their commitment to the change through their own actions Successful initiatives Unsuccessful initiatives Initiative Month 1 Initiative Month 2
  14. 14. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved A sample diagnostic: Feelings 14 Included Clear Responsible Equipped Confident Valued Motivated Successful initiatives Unsuccessful initiatives Initiative 1 In this particular situation, a lot of work has gone 
 into making people feel included and responsible 
 for making the change, but they are not feeling 
 valued, clear or equipped. This is likely to 
 lead to sabotage of the initiative. 
 
 It is clear that further investment in making 
 people responsible (e.g. updating their 
 personal objectives or clarifying individual 
 accountabilities) would be wasted. 
 
 Instead, the sponsor of this change needs to decide between work to make people feel more valued and clear or using other tactics to secure compliance with the change. Increasing feelings of being valued might be as easy as • simple recognition of some of the teams and individuals • acknowledging specific contributions they have made to date • acknowledging the difficulties they are contending with.
  15. 15. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved Simple traffic light ‘envelope of success’ 15 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% There was a clear need for the change The right solution was used to deliver the change The change was good and provided a fair future for those impacted Other The transition process was feasible Leaders in the organisation demonstrated their commitment to the change through their own actions I changed I didn't change We developed a simple traffic light system to show the ‘envelope of success’ for change. It draws from the green lines shown earlier for the average presence of each factor in situations where people changed and didn’t change respectively.
 
 The area within the red line is deemed the red zone. If an initiative is in this area, the presence of those factors is less than the average of situations where people didn’t change. The area beyond the green line is deemed 
 the green zone. This is where an initiative 
 is showing a higher presence of a factor 
 than the average of situations where people 
 changed. The amber zone lies between these. In this 
 zone, an initiative is between the average for 
 ‘change’ and ‘no change’. Green zone: past the average ‘tipping point’ 
 where people changed their behaviour Red zone: below even the average 
 level when people chose NOT to change 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% There was a clear need for the change The right solution was used to deliver the change The change was good and provided a fair future for those impacted Other The transition process was feasible Leaders in the organisation demonstrated their commitment to the change through their own actions I changed I didn't change
  16. 16. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved A sample dashboard 16 Having developed a traffic light system, we can now use the benchmark diagnostic to test all of the indicators more precisely within the organisation or community that we are trying to change. This could be split by organisational unit as shown below. It could also be another kind of split (e.g. by geography, age group, length of service, gender etc). This allows more precise targeting of spend. Repeating the diagnostic will allow ongoing precise targeting of investment. We can see Ops UK is well on track whereas Ops Europe clearly requires more investment in each of the areas. There is also a worrying indication that there is a relatively widespread belief that the solution may not be the right one. This requires urgent action to understand whether this is a perception issue or a deeper problem with the solution. A perception issue can be solved with more communication, prototyping, piloting etc. However, if there is evidence to support the belief that the solution is wrong, significant re- work should be considered.
  17. 17. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved Summary 17 INDICATORS ISOLATED CHEAP AND SIMPLE TEST Surgically target investment <5 minutes for respondents to complete the survey
 
 Easy to repeat regularly to track progress and continually refine investment targeting 
 
 Low cost ‘Big 5’ beliefs
 
 ‘Big 7’ feelings
 
 Quantified benchmarks from large and improving data sample Re-direct wasted or low value investment Double success rate?
  18. 18. © Alastair Campbell 2014 unless otherwise stated. All rights reserved Summary Alastair Campbell
 al@willwechange.com +44(0)7739 896354 Traditional approaches to a change initiative deliver the 70% failure rate widely reported. Typically, a trusted leader and team attempt to make change happen based on on a personal belief about ‘what works’. This is subject to a lot of individual cognitive bias and is probably weighted too heavily by the individual’s most recent experiences. A bit like a doctor treating a patient on the basis of the final outcome from the last few patients they worked with, rather than a precise set of diagnostic tests for the individual patient.
 
 Our approach is regular diagnostic tests and surgical targeting - we propose using regular fast, simple and cheap diagnostic tests (like a regular smear test or mammogram).
 
 We quantified feelings as well as traditional factors in change. Measuring these feelings makes it easy to understand how people are reacting to your chosen approach to change and therefore to understand where investment is working and where it’s not (and a new approach is needed). 
 
 We found that some factors (especially demonstrable leadership commitment through personal 
 action) were significantly less important than expected by most audiences.
 
 We identified a clear ‘envelope for success’ for each indicator. 
 We quantified ‘tipping points’ for change.
 
 This super-simple survey tool can:
 - correct for personal biases in approaches to change
 - reduce effort/spend on factors which are unnecessary or where ‘tipping point’ has been reached 
 - target spend on an ongoing basis where the data shows it’s actually needed across: 
 + ‘hard’ beliefs (case for change etc) 
 + feelings (perceived fairness etc)
 + each team or community in the organisation based on how close they are to the tipping point.
 
 This could revolutionise our approach to managing change.
 
 Contact Alastair Campbell if you would like to discuss our research or pilot our diagnostic tool. 18

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