A Story of Ox Carts and Airplanes: Converging the Promise and Reality of eLearning


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Keynote presentation by Phil Ice, Ed.D. Associate VP, Research and Development, American Public University System for the DEHub/ODLAA Education 2011 to 2021- Global challenges and perspectives of blended and distance learning the (14 to 18 February 2011).

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A Story of Ox Carts and Airplanes: Converging the Promise and Reality of eLearning

  1. 1. Education 2011 – 2021 Sydney, Australia Phil Ice, Ed.D.
  2. 3. <ul><li>Henry Block </li></ul><ul><li>??? </li></ul>
  3. 4. <ul><li>Is a market characterized by consistent, double-digit growth </li></ul><ul><li>Provides a means to reach new groups of previously underserved learners </li></ul><ul><li>Can leverage new technologies to increase learning outcomes </li></ul>
  4. 5. <ul><li>Henry Block authored the eBang Theory for Montgomery Securities, Bank of America, in 1999 </li></ul><ul><li>Hype exceeded the ability to implement </li></ul><ul><li>Only the names have change </li></ul>
  5. 6. <ul><li>Learning Management System’s are far removed from the way contemporary learners access and act on information </li></ul>
  6. 7. <ul><li>Privacy can’t be assured and even if it could students might learn about the Pacific Northwest Tree Octopus </li></ul>
  7. 10. <ul><li>triggering event (sense of puzzlement) </li></ul><ul><li>exploration (sharing information & ideas) </li></ul><ul><li>integration (connecting ideas) </li></ul><ul><li>resolution (synthesizing & applying new ideas) </li></ul>
  8. 14. <ul><li>Standard OS from devices from cell phones to flat panel TV’s </li></ul><ul><li>Build once, TWEAK and deploy </li></ul><ul><li>Ubiquitous consumption of content </li></ul>
  9. 16. <ul><li>Server based applications can exist on the desktop </li></ul>
  10. 17. <ul><li>Interactive experiences for users with limited connectivity </li></ul><ul><li>Peer to Peer activity emulation through Flex </li></ul><ul><li>New York Times Reader </li></ul><ul><li>Connect desktop client </li></ul><ul><li>POC’s in the works </li></ul>
  11. 18. <ul><li>Lots of static around analytics </li></ul><ul><li>Rebranding what we have been doing </li></ul><ul><li>Not visionary enough </li></ul><ul><li>Ignoring the realities in the corporate sector </li></ul>
  12. 20. <ul><li>Data has a limited lifespan in predictive analytics </li></ul><ul><li>IBM Intelligent Data Management </li></ul>
  13. 21. <ul><li>F or W grades may have significant psychological impact. Department of Defense requires service members to reimburse Department for tuition if grade received is F or W. For disenrolled students, last grade of F = 31% and last grade of W = 15% of that population. </li></ul><ul><li>4.0 GPA may be related to students transferring to other institutions. Represents 9% of disenrolled students. </li></ul>
  14. 24. <ul><li>Students have to be retrained – they know nothing about the world </li></ul><ul><li>Means more than having a campus in another country </li></ul><ul><li>Why aren’t there programs with multiple international components? </li></ul>
  15. 25. <ul><li>Programs, Courses, Components, Analytics, Emerging Technology, etc, etc. all require: </li></ul>
  16. 27. The CoI Survey at APUS <ul><li>Used as the end of course survey since January 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>45% return rate </li></ul><ul><li>To date n = approximately 130,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Data analyzed using comparative descriptive statistics, regression analysis and factor analysis at the University, School, Program, Course and Instructor levels </li></ul><ul><li>Recognized as Sloan-C’s effective pract </li></ul>
  17. 28. Implementation
  18. 29. <ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Social Presence </li></ul><ul><li>Affective Expression   </li></ul><ul><li>14. Getting to know other course participants gave me a sense of belonging in the course. </li></ul><ul><li>15. I was able to form distinct impressions of some course participants. </li></ul><ul><li>16. Online or web-based communication is an excellent medium for social interaction. </li></ul><ul><li>Open communication </li></ul><ul><li>17. I felt comfortable conversing through the online medium.  </li></ul><ul><li>18. I felt comfortable participating in the course discussions.  </li></ul><ul><li>19. I felt comfortable interacting with other course participants. </li></ul><ul><li>Group cohesion </li></ul><ul><li>20. I felt comfortable disagreeing with other course participants while still maintaining a sense of trust. </li></ul><ul><li>21. I felt that my point of view was acknowledged by other course participants. </li></ul><ul><li>22. Online discussions help me to develop a sense of collaboration. </li></ul>
  19. 31. <ul><li>  </li></ul>
  20. 32. <ul><li>  </li></ul>
  21. 33. <ul><li>Leveraging economies of scale </li></ul><ul><li>Programs, Courses, Infrastructure, Resources, Research </li></ul><ul><li>There will be winners and loosers – California as an example vs. for-profits </li></ul>
  22. 34. <ul><li>The greatest change, and the one we are the least prepared for, is that the school will have to commit itself to results. </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Peter Drucker, 1993 </li></ul></ul></ul>
  23. 35. <ul><li>Phil Ice, Ed.D. </li></ul><ul><li>Associate VP, Research and </li></ul><ul><li>Development </li></ul><ul><li>American Public University System </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>Vice President </li></ul><ul><li>Sage Road Analytics </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul>