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Estimating The Size of the Irish Population

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Estimating The Size of the Irish Population

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The various sources of population-related data are inconsistent with one another. There has been past issues with determining the extent of immigration. This in turn creates an issue with the size of the population of Ireland.

This analysis has identified one possible set of inconsistencies relating to the size of the Irish population. It may well be that the population of Ireland is greater that than counted by the CSO in the census.

Population sizes at various ages determine the demand for different societal resources. People are, after all, the direct and indirect buyers and users of products and services, both public and private sector. People drive demand. Changes in the profile of people – numbers and ages – will change the demand profile.

Discrepancies between other data sources from which population data can be inferred and the CSO’s population data indicate that there may be ongoing errors.

Consistency checking between multiple sets of related data is a standard technique to identify potential quality data issues that should then be the subject of further analysis. Detailed consistency checking is hampered by the limited set of information made publically available by various state agencies.

This analysis has looked at the following sets of data with a view to identifying potential data conflicts:

1. DEASP PPSN Registration Numbers
2. CSO PPSN Numbers
3. CSO Migration Numbers
4. CSO Population Numbers
5. Revenue Income Tax Numbers
6. Department of Education Third-Level Numbers
7. DEASP Pensioner Numbers
8. DEASP Live Register/Disability/Work Activation Numbers
9. Irish Naturalisation and Immigration Service (INIS) Statistics

The various sources of population-related data are inconsistent with one another. There has been past issues with determining the extent of immigration. This in turn creates an issue with the size of the population of Ireland.

This analysis has identified one possible set of inconsistencies relating to the size of the Irish population. It may well be that the population of Ireland is greater that than counted by the CSO in the census.

Population sizes at various ages determine the demand for different societal resources. People are, after all, the direct and indirect buyers and users of products and services, both public and private sector. People drive demand. Changes in the profile of people – numbers and ages – will change the demand profile.

Discrepancies between other data sources from which population data can be inferred and the CSO’s population data indicate that there may be ongoing errors.

Consistency checking between multiple sets of related data is a standard technique to identify potential quality data issues that should then be the subject of further analysis. Detailed consistency checking is hampered by the limited set of information made publically available by various state agencies.

This analysis has looked at the following sets of data with a view to identifying potential data conflicts:

1. DEASP PPSN Registration Numbers
2. CSO PPSN Numbers
3. CSO Migration Numbers
4. CSO Population Numbers
5. Revenue Income Tax Numbers
6. Department of Education Third-Level Numbers
7. DEASP Pensioner Numbers
8. DEASP Live Register/Disability/Work Activation Numbers
9. Irish Naturalisation and Immigration Service (INIS) Statistics

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Estimating The Size of the Irish Population

  1. 1. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Using Consistency Checking to Examine Possible Discrepancies with Counts of the Irish Population Alan McSweeney http://ie.linkedin.com/in/alanmcsweeney
  2. 2. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 2 Contents Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 3 Crossing Checking Population Data Approach ....................................................................................... 4 PPSN (Personal Public Service Number) Analysis ................................................................................. 5 Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection PPSN Statistics ....................................... 5 Central Statistics Office PPSN Statistics............................................................................................ 7 Comparing the DEASP and CSO PPSN Statistics .............................................................................. 8 Comparing 2016 Census Nationality and PPSN Nationality............................................................. 11 Central Statistics Office Migration Statistics ........................................................................................ 16 Immigration and Migration.............................................................................................................. 16 CSO Restatement of Migration Statistics and Population Estimates................................................. 19 Annual Population Estimates Revisions....................................................................................... 19 Migration Estimates Revisions ..................................................................................................... 21 UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) Analysis of Differences Between National Insurance Registrations and Migration Estimates ............................................................................................ 22 Department of Justice Irish Naturalisation and Immigration Service (INIS) Statistics..................... 24 Irish Population and Migration........................................................................................................ 25 Revenue Income Tax Statistics............................................................................................................ 29 Numbers in Third Level Education...................................................................................................... 32 Unemployment Statistics..................................................................................................................... 32 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 32 Unemployment Statistics................................................................................................................. 34 Bringing It All Together...................................................................................................................... 39 Pension Data....................................................................................................................................... 40 Some Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 41
  3. 3. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 3 Introduction The Irish five yearly census performed by the CSO1 is taken as the traditional method for determining the size of the Irish population. The CSO supplements the census population numbers with other population-related data such as:  Annual population estimates, including current migration estimates2  Estimate of migration3 However, there are other sources of population data that do not necessarily agree with the CSO’s population numbers. These sources include:  PPSN numbers issued by the Department of Social Protection  Income tax statistics published by the Revenue Commissioners  Numbers in education published by the Department of Education and Science The objective of these notes is to examine sources of population numbers from all these sources in an attempt to reconcile them or to identify possible discrepancies. This is essentially an attempt to cross-check census data with population-related data from other sources. The information in this paper is taken from publically available sources. More detailed information may be available but not published. As usual, there are data issues to be handled. Not all data will be available for the same years. For example, the latest year that Revenue Commissioners’ income tax data is available for is 2015. The last census of population was taken in April 2016. Some data is published annually while others are published quarterly or monthly. The data is in mixed formats. Some has to be extracted from PDF files. With regard to population data, the largest possible source of discrepancies is immigration. The topic of migration is sensitive and emotive and one that should only be entered into with care. The purpose of these notes is simply to identify data issues. The phenomenon of large-scale immigration into Ireland and the resulting changes to the population profile of Ireland are new. Traditionally and up to the mid- 1980s Ireland has experienced large-scale net emigration, itself an emotive topic. 1 The 2016 census population distribution data is available from: https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Database/eirestat/Profile%202%20- %20Population%20Distribution%20and%20Movements/Profile%202%20- %20Population%20Distribution%20and%20Movements_statbank.asp 2 These annual estimates are available from: https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Database/eirestat/Annual%20Population%20Estimates/Annual%20Population% 20Estimates_statbank.asp 3 Historic migration data is available in the following time series: https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?MainTable=PEA02 https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?MainTable=PEA10 https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?MainTable=PEA12 https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?MainTable=PEA14
  4. 4. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 4 Crossing Checking Population Data Approach One of the approaches I have taken in cross-checking the various sets of population-related data is described in the following diagram: The equation is essentially: CSO Population For Ages 18-66 should roughly equal: Department of Social Protection Live Register + Long-Term Disability + Activation and Education Programmes + Revenue Commissioners Number of Income Taxpayers Aged 18-66 + Department of Education Third Level Numbers I selected the age band 18-66 because it is one about which data is available from multiple sources so cross-checking can be performed. There will be overlaps and other issues with these counts of people. There will be some people in education who are claiming Jobseeker’s Benefit/Allowance. There will be some people paying income tax and claiming Jobseeker’s Benefit/Allowance. There will be some people in full-time third-level education who are also working and paying income tax. There will also be other data issues such as:  Some people in third-level education will be under 18
  5. 5. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 5  Some income tax payers will be over 66  Some people aged 18 will be in second-level education Finally, there will be a group that is not registered with the Revenue Commissioners, Department of Social Protection or Department of Education but that will have been counted in the census. See the information on labour force participation on page 32. PPSN (Personal Public Service Number) Analysis This section looks at PPSN information published by the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection (DEASP), similar information published by the CSO and compares nationality information from the 2016 census with PPSN country details. Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection PPSN Statistics The Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection (DEASP) also publish PPSN statistics, less than helpfully in PDF files, one for each year4. There is monthly data from 2006 to 2018, annual data from 2001 to 2005 and partial data for 2000. While there is abuse of PPSNs with one person having more than one PPSN, where the person to whom the PPSN was allocated is no longer living in Ireland and there are people with PPSNs who are welfare tourists, the number of PPSNs issued is a way of checking CSO population and migration data. You need a PPSN to be able to avail of most public services, such as:  Any Social Welfare services  Any Revenue Schemes including taxation  Pupil ID  HSE services including Medical Card and Drug Payment Schemes  Child immunisation  Housing grants  Driver License applications So, there are substantial incentives to get a PPSN. Also, unless you are operating entirely in the black economy you or your employer will look for a valid PPSN. There is a fairly rigorous PPSN application process. The following table summarises the numbers of PPSNs issued for the full years 2001 to 2017. The number of births5 is shown as children born in Ireland receive a PPSN when their birth is registered. A large proportion of the number of PPSNs registered for Ireland will represents new births. There is a legal requirement in Ireland to register births within three months. This is required for child benefit, school enrolment, passport application and many other purposes. 4 http://www.welfare.ie/en/Pages/Personal-Public-Service-Number-Statistics-on-Numbers-Issued.aspx 5 This is taken from the CSO time series VSA17 Births by State, Year and Statistic - https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=VSA17.
  6. 6. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 6 Year All PPSN Ireland PPSN Foreign PPSN EU Excluding Ireland UK Non EU Foreign Births 2001 221,956 109,577 112,379 36,434 20,391 75,945 57,854 2002 215,536 49,866 165,670 32,555 18,915 133,115 60,503 2003 191,565 86,947 104,618 32,876 18,474 71,742 61,529 2004 219,954 86,691 133,263 33,681 18,545 99,582 61,972 2005 271,202 80,293 190,909 148,146 20,655 42,763 61,372 2006 311,850 80,788 231,062 147,651 22,283 83,411 65,425 2007 305,610 87,559 218,051 170,314 22,040 47,734 71,389 2008 247,431 91,280 156,151 111,433 19,707 44,718 75,173 2009 165,895 85,909 79,986 51,097 13,996 28,889 75,554 2010 154,168 85,130 69,038 36,105 13,437 32,933 75,174 2011 153,050 85,210 67,840 41,672 13,135 26,168 74,033 2012 154,657 81,331 73,326 46,793 12,727 26,533 71,674 2013 164,182 78,630 85,552 54,096 13,135 31,456 68,954 2014 172,463 76,091 96,372 60,339 13,774 36,033 67,295 2015 169,711 75,008 94,703 61,034 15,190 33,669 65,536 2016 181,025 73,328 107,697 70,442 15,863 37,255 63,897 2017 188,956 72,657 116,299 74,012 15,312 42,287 62,053 Total 3,489,211 1,386,295 2,102,916 1,208,680 287,579 894,233 1,139,387 The UK column applies to PPSNs awarded to people from the following locations: England, Montserrat Northern Ireland, Pitcairn, Scotland, South Georgia And South Sandwich Islands, United Kingdom, Virgin Islands (British) and Wales. The numbers for the EU are based on the countries in the EU (excluding Ireland) for the year or part of the year. The additional countries are shown in red in the following table. 1 January 1995 - 30 April 2004 1 May 2004 - 31 December 2006 1 January 2007 - 30 June 2013 From 1 July 2013 EU28 + EEA EU15 EU25 EU27 EU28 Austria Austria Austria Austria Austria Belgium Belgium Belgium Belgium Belgium Denmark Cyprus Bulgaria Bulgaria Bulgaria Finland Czech Republic Cyprus Croatia Croatia France Denmark Czech Republic Cyprus Cyprus Germany Estonia Denmark Czech Republic Czech Republic Greece Finland Estonia Denmark Denmark Ireland France Finland Estonia Estonia Italy Germany France Finland Finland Luxembourg Greece Germany France France Netherlands Hungary Greece Germany Germany Portugal Ireland Hungary Greece Greece Spain Italy Ireland Hungary Hungary Sweden Latvia Italy Ireland Iceland United Kingdom Lithuania Latvia Italy Ireland Luxembourg Lithuania Latvia Italy Malta Luxembourg Lithuania Latvia Netherlands Malta Luxembourg Liechtenstein Poland Netherlands Malta Lithuania
  7. 7. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 7 1 January 1995 - 30 April 2004 1 May 2004 - 31 December 2006 1 January 2007 - 30 June 2013 From 1 July 2013 EU28 + EEA EU15 EU25 EU27 EU28 Portugal Poland Netherlands Luxembourg Slovakia Portugal Poland Malta Slovenia Romania Portugal Netherlands Spain Slovakia Romania Norway Sweden Slovenia Slovakia Poland United Kingdom Spain Slovenia Portugal Sweden Spain Romania United Kingdom Sweden Slovakia United Kingdom Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom I have included the EEA (European Economic Area) as all non-EEA nationals living in Ireland for longer than 90 days are required to register with Irish Naturalisation and Immigration Service (INIS) (in the Dublin region) or An Garda Síochána (outside Dublin). For more information on INIS, see the information on page 24. Central Statistics Office PPSN Statistics The CSO published details on PPSNs issued6 for the years 2002 to 2016. Year UK EU15 Excluding Irish and UK EU15 to EU25 States EU25 to EU28 States Other Nationalities (5) All Foreign Nationalities 2002 16,903 18,306 8,990 2,881 27,397 76,919 2003 15,176 18,823 9,002 1,792 23,038 70,138 2004 15,402 19,358 57,993 821 18,563 114,750 2005 16,088 21,238 107,252 862 20,018 168,197 2006 17,398 24,545 127,538 3,495 24,726 200,450 2007 17,561 26,324 98,298 14,815 26,232 186,035 2008 15,447 24,431 50,300 6,911 26,188 125,857 2009 10,893 12,430 18,448 2,574 15,934 62,311 2010 11,249 11,977 16,880 2,914 13,827 58,886 2011 10,935 12,002 14,200 3,704 14,929 57,946 2012 10,754 14,407 14,569 5,204 16,917 64,054 2013 11,193 16,902 14,944 8,132 22,106 75,780 2014 11,973 18,884 14,084 10,836 27,160 85,696 2015 13,954 17,718 13,274 12,449 22,619 82,779 2016 13,774 21,352 13,476 15,734 27,393 94,978 Total 208,700 278,697 579,248 93,124 327,047 1,524,776 6 FNA02 Employment Activity of Foreign Nationals by Broad Nationality Group, Year of Entry and Year https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?MainTable=FNA02
  8. 8. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 8 Comparing the DEASP and CSO PPSN Statistics For the years 2002 to 2016, which are the years for which the CSO and DEASP PPSN data series overlap, the following table summarises the values for UK PPSNs, all foreign PPSNs and PPSNs issued to any person from one of the EU 28 countries. Year CSO UK DEASP UK CSO All Foreign DEASP All Foreign CSO All EU 28 States DEASP All EU 28 States 2002 16,903 18,915 76,919 165,670 30,177 45,375 2003 15,176 18,474 70,138 104,618 29,617 44,441 2004 15,402 18,545 114,750 133,263 78,172 93,426 2005 16,088 20,655 168,197 190,909 129,352 149,246 2006 17,398 22,283 200,450 231,062 155,578 182,629 2007 17,561 22,040 186,035 218,048 139,437 170,484 2008 15,447 19,707 125,857 156,151 81,642 111,556 2009 10,893 13,996 62,311 79,986 33,452 51,157 2010 11,249 13,437 58,886 69,038 31,771 43,966 2011 10,935 13,135 57,946 67,840 29,906 41,732 2012 10,754 12,727 64,054 73,326 34,180 46,879 2013 11,193 13,135 75,780 85,552 39,978 54,142 2014 11,973 13,774 85,696 96,372 43,804 60,339 2015 13,954 15,190 82,779 94,703 43,441 61,034 2016 13,774 15,863 94,978 107,697 50,562 70,442 Total 208,700 251,876 1,524,776 1,874,235 951,069 1,226,848 CSO DEASP Difference 43,176 349,459 275,779 For each of these three counts - UK PPSNs, all foreign PPSNs and EU 28 PPSNs - the numbers published by the CSO differ and are lower than the equivalent PPSN numbers published by the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection (DEASP) by around 20%. The following chart shows the monthly numbers of PPSNs issued for all the EU 28 states from January 2006 to April 2018:
  9. 9. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 9 The two EU enlargements that occurred in this interval are shown as vertical bars: 1. EU 25 to EU 27 on 1 January 2007 2. EU 27 to EU 28 on 1 1 July 2013 The following chart shows the numbers of PPSNs issued for the three countries covered by the EU 27 and EU 28 enlargements. It is not a surprise that the numbers of PPSNs issued to these countries increased after they were admitted to the EU when previous barriers to immigration were eliminated.
  10. 10. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 10 The following chart shows the annual PPSN numbers for the EU 28 countries from 2001 to 2017 and contains vertical bars highlighting the three enlargements that occurred during the interval. The most striking trend was the substantial increase in PPSN allocations to people from Poland after the EN 25 enlargement when that country joined the EU.
  11. 11. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 11 Comparing 2016 Census Nationality and PPSN Nationality The 2016 census contains a count of the population by nationality7. The following table contains the PPSNs issued the people from the countries listed for the years 2001 to 2016 and the numbers of people who gave their nationality as that county. Country PPSNs Issued By Year Total PPSN 2001- 2016 Census Count Census Count as % of PPSN 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Afghanistan 40 31 30 110 155 82 102 86 103 76 127 88 118 161 868 312 2,489 1,272 51.10% Algeria 233 195 134 108 74 84 89 119 113 58 75 70 89 132 107 105 1,785 595 33.33% Angola 138 121 119 67 61 48 43 37 36 15 5 5 4 8 3 12 722 259 35.87% Argentina 81 199 182 124 168 212 201 137 158 143 155 185 200 258 169 269 2,841 594 20.91% Australia 2,874 2,656 2,421 1,713 2,128 2,105 1,966 1,857 1,013 688 554 587 644 883 1,043 1,162 24,294 2,427 9.99% Austria 919 545 519 851 655 769 814 670 338 290 313 300 334 286 289 316 8,208 870 10.60% Bangladesh 454 486 655 347 209 456 405 240 167 109 88 134 196 311 427 191 4,875 1,352 27.73% Belarus 464 390 331 86 66 90 80 62 57 31 31 51 35 37 40 58 1,909 389 20.38% Belgium 443 424 478 383 415 506 523 466 288 278 336 281 326 370 366 338 6,221 1,262 20.29% Bosnia 66 55 42 42 28 34 20 27 11 14 17 32 16 33 21 43 501 227 45.31% Botswana 44 55 18 21 10 27 54 93 101 61 67 69 52 74 21 23 790 215 27.22% Brazil 660 759 725 864 2,225 3,460 4,805 5,632 2,741 4,257 4,939 5,542 6,270 7,778 5,052 7,283 62,992 13,640 21.65% Bulgaria 512 427 374 104 98 267 1,008 772 277 295 281 469 879 883 1,098 1,302 9,046 2,621 28.97% Cameroon 145 197 155 72 78 117 85 93 81 71 49 26 37 36 25 36 1,303 412 31.62% Canada 1,019 733 754 866 970 1,161 1,071 1,213 841 698 606 613 739 841 886 1,038 14,049 2,461 17.52% Chile 16 14 29 17 47 38 49 48 22 23 92 47 43 79 66 100 730 238 32.60% China 5,748 4,839 3,762 3,471 1,756 1,418 1,519 1,685 1,266 977 877 1,138 1,099 1,416 1,145 1,474 33,590 9,575 28.51% Colombia 45 35 40 43 33 43 50 34 21 28 38 97 136 83 49 87 862 236 27.38% Croatia 464 420 353 264 189 176 170 123 60 51 60 86 486 2,091 4,342 5,312 14,647 5,285 36.08% Cyprus 12 8 6 27 23 33 43 19 26 21 21 20 53 124 42 59 537 104 19.37% Czech Republic 1,428 1,144 831 3,298 4,505 4,458 3,838 2,762 901 712 621 594 693 654 718 723 27,880 4,928 17.68% 7 This is taken from E7002 Population Usually Resident and Present in the State 2011 to 2016 by Nationality, Sex, County of Usual Residence and CensusYear - https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=E7002
  12. 12. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 12 Country PPSNs Issued By Year Total PPSN 2001- 2016 Census Count Census Count as % of PPSN 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Denmark 367 279 285 267 314 286 338 349 209 324 306 319 266 222 240 235 4,606 820 17.80% Egypt 222 142 157 99 170 260 263 337 201 93 99 147 184 239 294 512 3,419 957 27.99% Estonia 858 463 546 1,788 2,011 1,407 648 572 428 207 155 259 231 237 184 124 10,118 2,169 21.44% Ethiopia 30 36 36 87 62 81 54 58 59 105 119 39 44 31 48 38 927 214 23.09% Finland 568 441 384 346 469 508 473 372 153 188 181 203 223 189 241 235 5,174 937 18.11% France 4,487 3,769 4,332 4,678 4,973 6,879 7,673 7,066 3,104 2,877 2,664 2,915 3,175 3,739 3,744 4,379 70,454 11,661 16.55% Georgia 95 109 136 134 153 186 165 174 102 62 22 26 33 59 63 94 1,613 429 26.60% Germany 2,695 2,547 2,877 3,147 3,839 4,605 4,534 3,823 2,090 2,090 2,160 2,142 2,162 2,406 2,455 2,477 46,049 11,531 25.04% Ghana 177 313 227 115 166 153 145 168 116 62 47 49 31 56 57 91 1,973 495 25.09% Greece 134 117 116 158 169 207 167 168 100 124 168 269 275 332 408 628 3,540 1,000 28.25% Hungary 511 259 185 1,839 3,086 4,330 5,046 4,562 1,794 1,584 1,556 1,985 1,881 1,727 1,617 1,433 33,395 9,286 27.81% India 1,522 1,591 1,422 1,887 3,407 5,580 4,778 4,332 2,249 1,430 1,475 1,854 2,620 2,815 3,132 4,956 45,050 11,465 25.45% Iran 89 102 135 135 258 436 110 126 102 83 100 104 84 120 96 124 2,204 606 27.50% Iraq 76 199 178 75 113 222 341 286 227 115 68 76 80 114 186 222 2,578 565 21.92% Israel 68 159 71 64 102 162 161 121 55 44 64 90 75 362 596 119 2,313 664 28.71% Italy 2,544 2,507 2,763 2,927 3,692 4,222 4,715 4,426 2,236 2,039 2,095 2,680 3,552 4,263 4,130 5,525 54,316 11,732 21.60% Japan 204 179 165 235 220 277 426 445 248 232 275 281 359 387 280 354 4,567 998 21.85% Kenya 77 146 115 59 90 101 97 85 49 34 25 35 39 51 44 42 1,089 332 30.49% Kosovo 98 68 77 49 26 37 49 39 43 19 15 6 13 6 15 7 567 226 39.86% Kuwait 9 18 24 44 50 82 82 40 37 36 110 57 45 125 56 59 874 417 47.71% Latvia 3,023 1,538 1,230 6,266 9,328 7,954 4,674 3,727 3,916 3,134 2,195 1,759 1,568 1,312 1,171 1,316 54,111 19,933 36.84% Libya 155 203 150 88 50 51 27 26 30 21 40 58 276 254 61 61 1,551 472 30.43% Lithuania 2,735 2,782 2,379 12,817 18,717 16,039 10,728 6,443 3,768 4,353 3,555 2,860 2,521 2,316 2,337 2,838 97,188 36,552 37.61% Luxembourg 28 45 36 12 21 18 10 19 15 11 7 3 21 24 15 25 310 47 15.16% Malawi 12 17 12 13 16 21 49 56 69 113 215 287 314 311 159 48 1,712 759 44.33% Malaysia 527 341 349 301 523 636 744 656 436 410 291 362 435 540 502 567 7,620 2,999 39.36% Malta 237 209 191 205 124 143 161 132 69 57 51 46 32 50 49 80 1,836 177 9.64% Mauritius 32 46 125 158 473 1,938 1,989 1,431 887 156 46 45 40 65 33 49 7,513 1,929 25.68% Mexico 85 89 95 108 119 158 169 189 160 290 316 384 545 774 439 640 4,560 1,083 23.75%
  13. 13. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 13 Country PPSNs Issued By Year Total PPSN 2001- 2016 Census Count Census Count as % of PPSN 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Moldova 600 651 563 214 194 294 409 300 252 124 93 90 124 116 88 116 4,228 1,987 47.00% Mongolia 89 310 403 434 117 53 57 52 66 24 22 16 9 31 28 80 1,791 387 21.61% Morocco 83 87 78 83 88 112 80 78 74 42 49 42 59 89 78 71 1,193 348 29.17% Nepal 40 51 54 72 48 66 84 94 97 107 93 103 187 202 103 48 1,449 537 37.06% Netherlands 861 776 757 924 970 1,104 1,051 904 647 649 710 654 823 882 825 957 13,494 4,664 34.56% New Zealand 1,462 1,408 1,016 896 923 1,010 886 819 413 238 194 200 212 275 273 260 10,485 1,097 10.46% Nigeria 3,813 5,417 3,795 1,973 2,168 1,623 1,610 1,545 888 513 482 421 545 647 613 766 26,819 6,084 22.69% Norway 189 180 184 186 231 192 218 240 196 187 195 184 168 191 185 191 3,117 479 15.37% Oman 7 3 7 8 12 3 10 9 2 1 18 25 39 63 86 59 352 395 112.22% Pakistan 1,146 1,091 1,350 1,114 1,024 1,425 1,439 911 868 478 807 741 891 1,618 3,168 2,217 20,288 7,351 36.23% Philippines 3,526 2,540 2,064 1,227 1,499 1,884 1,624 1,440 695 394 434 414 429 413 428 919 19,930 4,214 21.14% Poland 2,259 2,649 3,828 27,295 64,731 93,787 79,816 42,553 13,794 8,742 8,087 8,663 9,243 9,126 8,593 8,019 391,185 122,515 31.32% Portugal 788 419 725 680 791 935 1,517 2,125 1,125 786 706 1,128 1,577 1,946 1,622 2,138 19,008 4,807 25.29% Republic Of Korea 60 134 148 272 461 491 948 1,147 431 558 505 678 1,043 1,271 513 495 9,155 1,004 10.97% Romania 2,416 2,667 1,387 591 813 3,336 14,525 6,762 2,624 3,002 3,841 5,283 7,709 9,076 8,638 11,208 83,878 29,186 34.80% Russia 1,649 1,167 658 559 473 464 398 358 258 233 267 258 329 357 417 455 8,300 2,716 32.72% Saudi Arabia 11 15 41 19 27 38 36 33 159 247 288 344 480 481 337 353 2,909 1,871 64.32% Serbia And Montenegro 0 0 0 0 3 57 0 48 32 19 30 37 33 40 70 90 459 343 74.73% Singapore 19 28 17 36 36 52 52 42 28 15 20 28 45 69 49 72 608 255 41.94% Slovakia 328 252 248 5,187 9,258 10,687 8,375 4,994 1,784 1,288 1,012 1,138 1,092 1,081 957 996 48,677 9,717 19.96% Slovenia 1 2 7 64 76 101 63 87 40 37 42 47 56 72 90 97 882 298 33.79% Somalia 94 110 222 248 443 167 228 161 209 93 133 93 80 90 122 99 2,592 808 31.17% South Africa 3,075 2,195 1,869 1,013 1,060 1,126 1,046 1,105 678 413 346 344 354 448 482 804 16,358 3,208 19.61% Spain 5,800 5,687 4,920 4,456 4,670 4,433 4,691 4,618 2,595 2,388 2,604 3,929 5,000 5,195 4,351 5,441 70,778 12,112 17.11% Sri Lanka 52 105 72 42 55 101 94 78 43 33 26 34 39 54 46 50 924 276 29.87% Sudan 128 183 181 213 332 448 304 366 185 96 155 135 121 126 218 246 3,437 830 24.15% Sweden 1,451 949 1,017 943 1,102 1,103 932 757 481 629 582 499 480 473 515 419 12,332 1,591 12.90%
  14. 14. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 14 Country PPSNs Issued By Year Total PPSN 2001- 2016 Census Count Census Count as % of PPSN 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Switzerland 180 143 225 212 203 291 262 277 156 143 180 171 202 185 221 229 3,280 692 21.10% Syria 48 27 24 33 31 52 44 52 28 25 32 70 65 165 266 657 1,619 650 40.15% Taiwan 5 8 14 16 14 5 11 18 4 9 17 33 127 180 173 260 894 321 35.91% Thailand 326 219 211 190 190 210 271 275 224 175 161 168 141 112 142 135 3,150 1,089 34.57% Turkey 198 619 770 456 374 165 228 197 140 117 131 122 156 233 206 319 4,431 1,043 23.54% Ukraine 1,267 1,421 1,282 489 378 405 394 467 302 150 167 182 257 293 341 309 8,104 1,785 22.03% United Kingdom 15,349 14,050 13,667 13,909 14,207 14,336 13,951 12,285 8,295 7,810 7,423 8,348 9,484 11,263 11,997 13,822 190,196 103,113 54.21% USA 2,645 2,736 3,010 3,195 3,811 4,079 3,841 3,504 2,544 2,518 2,705 2,697 3,048 3,403 3,337 3,867 50,940 10,519 20.65% Venezuela 27 29 61 51 51 53 71 66 52 169 346 409 2,227 1,639 69 66 5,386 1,188 22.06% Vietnam 40 116 74 29 45 84 68 112 81 50 42 55 74 102 99 155 1,226 475 38.74% Zimbabwe 405 623 207 152 179 187 183 192 127 76 99 67 94 113 120 240 3,064 974 31.79%
  15. 15. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 15 There is no real correlation between the number of PPSN applicants from a country and the number counted in the census with that nationality. For most countries, the proportion of PPSN applicants and the population count with that nationality is in the range 20% to 40%.
  16. 16. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 16 The total numbers of people with non-EU 28/EEA nationalities is 110,949. This is less than the 115,077 number of residency approvals in 2016 registered by INIS – see the details on page 24. Intuitively, the order of these numbers should be reversed. The number of residency approvals should be less that the numbers with the associated nationality as some of those will have acquired residency rights through other means. It may be that the difference is accounted for by people from those countries who are staying in Ireland for less than 90 days (and thus do not require a residency permit) and this stay coincided with the census in April 2016. Central Statistics Office Migration Statistics Immigration and Migration The CSO maintain a number of data series on immigration and emigration, such as:  PEA16 Estimated Emigration (Persons in April) by Sex, Nationality and Year8 - this contains data for the years 2006 to 2017  PEA17: Estimated Immigration (Persons in April) by Sex, Nationality and Year9 - this contains data for the years 1996 to 2017 The information in these is collected by surveys rather than the big count associated with the census. The following table summarises the emigration and immigration numbers for the overlapping years 2006 to 2017 for these two series: Emigration Immigration Year All Emigration Irish UK EU 28 Excluding Ireland and UK Other Countries All Immigration Irish UK EU 28 Excluding Ireland and UK Other Countries 2006 36,000 15,300 2,200 12,300 6,200 107,800 18,900 9,900 62,600 16,400 2007 46,300 12,900 3,700 21,500 8,200 151,100 30,700 4,300 97,100 19,000 2008 49,200 13,100 3,700 23,200 9,000 113,500 23,800 6,800 64,300 18,600 2009 72,000 19,200 3,900 37,900 11,000 73,700 23,000 3,900 32,600 14,100 2010 69,200 28,900 3,000 28,000 9,300 41,800 17,900 2,500 15,500 6,000 2011 80,600 42,000 4,600 24,100 9,900 53,300 19,600 4,100 17,200 12,400 2012 83,000 49,700 6,700 15,900 10,700 57,300 20,100 3,900 15,600 17,700 2013 81,300 48,300 6,700 15,400 10,900 62,700 21,700 4,100 17,100 19,800 2014 75,000 45,000 5,800 13,900 10,200 66,500 22,800 4,200 20,500 19,000 2015 70,000 42,500 5,600 13,100 8,800 75,900 26,600 5,000 22,400 21,900 2016 66,200 37,100 5,200 12,500 11,400 82,300 28,400 5,900 24,600 23,600 2017 64,800 30,800 4,000 16,300 13,700 84,600 27,400 6,100 21,700 29,400 The estimated net migration for the years 2006 to 2017 is: 8 http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?MainTable=PEA16 9 http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=PEA17
  17. 17. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 17 Year Net Migration 2006 71,800 2007 104,800 2008 64,300 2009 1,700 2010 -27,400 2011 -27,300 2012 -25,700 2013 -18,600 2014 -8,500 2015 5,900 2016 16,100 2017 19,800 The following table summarises population, births, deaths, net migration and numbers of PPSNs issued as counted by the CSO and the DEASP for the years 1996 to 2017. Not all data is available for all years so the totals at the end of the table cannot be compared with one another. The column Excess of Births Over Deaths is the difference between the two columns Births (VSA17) and Deaths (VSA09). The column Estimated Annual Population Change is the difference between the values for successive years of the column Estimated Annual Population (PEA01). The column Difference Between Estimated Annual Population Change and Excess of Births Over Deaths is the difference between the columns Excess of Births Over Deaths and Estimated Annual Population Change. This is the net change in population not accounted for by the excess of births over deaths. The CSO Estimated Immigration column is taken from the PEA17 data series. Year Births (VSA1710 ) Deaths (VSA09 11) Excess of Births Over Deaths Estimated Annual Population (PEA0112) Estimated Annual Population Change Difference Between Estimated Annual Population Change and Excess of Births Over Deaths CSO Estimated Immigration CSO Non- Irish PPSN FNA02 DEASP Non-Irish PPSN 1996 50,655 31,723 18,932 3,626,100 24,800 5,868 1997 52,775 31,581 21,194 3,664,300 38,200 17,006 1998 53,969 31,563 22,406 3,703,100 38,800 16,394 1999 53,924 32,608 21,316 3,741,600 38,500 17,184 2000 54,789 31,391 23,398 3,789,500 47,900 24,502 10 This data is taken from VSA17 Births by State, Year and Statistic https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=VSA17 11 This data is taken from VSA09 Deaths and Death Rates per 1,000 population by State, Year and Statistic https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=VSA09 12 This data is taken from PEA01 Population Estimates (Persons in April) by Age Group, Sex and Year https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=PEA01
  18. 18. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 18 Year Births (VSA1710 ) Deaths (VSA09 11) Excess of Births Over Deaths Estimated Annual Population (PEA0112) Estimated Annual Population Change Difference Between Estimated Annual Population Change and Excess of Births Over Deaths CSO Estimated Immigration CSO Non- Irish PPSN FNA02 DEASP Non-Irish PPSN 2001 57,854 30,212 27,642 3,847,200 57,700 30,058 59,000 112,379 2002 60,503 29,683 30,820 3,917,200 70,000 39,180 66,900 76,919 165,670 2003 61,529 29,074 32,455 3,979,900 62,700 30,245 60,000 70,138 104,618 2004 61,972 28,665 33,307 4,045,200 65,300 31,993 58,500 114,750 133,263 2005 61,372 28,260 33,112 4,133,800 88,600 55,488 84,600 168,197 190,909 2006 65,425 28,488 36,937 4,232,900 99,100 62,163 107,800 200,450 231,062 2007 71,389 28,117 43,272 4,375,800 142,900 99,628 151,100 186,035 218,048 2008 75,173 28,274 46,899 4,485,100 109,300 62,401 113,500 125,857 156,151 2009 75,554 28,380 47,174 4,533,400 48,300 1,126 73,700 62,311 79,986 2010 75,174 27,961 47,213 4,554,800 21,400 -25,813 41,800 58,886 69,038 2011 74,033 28,456 45,577 4,574,900 20,100 -25,477 53,300 57,946 67,840 2012 71,674 29,186 42,488 4,593,700 18,800 -23,688 57,300 64,054 73,326 2013 68,954 29,504 39,450 4,614,700 21,000 -18,450 62,700 75,780 85,552 2014 67,295 29,252 38,043 4,645,400 30,700 -7,343 66,500 85,696 96,372 2015 65,536 30,127 35,409 4,687,800 42,400 6,991 75,900 82,779 94,703 2016 63,897 30,390 33,507 4,739,600 51,800 18,293 82,300 94,978 107,697 2017 62,053 30,484 31,569 4,792,500 52,900 21,331 84,600 116,299 Total 1,405,499 653,379 752,120 1,191,200 171,162 176,900 1,094,772 2,102,913 The CSO’s population related data series agree with one another. The value of Difference Between Estimated Annual Population Change and Excess of Births Over Deaths - 171,162 – is roughly equal to the value of CSO Estimated Immigration of 176,900 even though the latter series does not have values for the entire interval. However, the annual values in these two columns does not agree with either of the PPSN counts. Also, the CSO count of PPSNs issued does not agree with the PPSN numbers published by the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection (DEASP). There are large differences between the PPSN counts and the population-based counts.
  19. 19. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 19 CSO Restatement of Migration Statistics and Population Estimates Annual Population Estimates Revisions The CSO publish population estimates. Some of the relevant data series are:  PEA01 Population Estimates (Persons in April) by Age Group, Sex and Year13  PEA11 Population estimates from 1926 by Single Year of Age, Sex and Year 14 These datasets interpolate annual intercensal values from the quinquennial census data. They are useful in two ways: 1. The annual estimates are more granular and their analysis can be used to yield more accurate analyses. 2. They provide an insight into how the CSO produce these estimates and possible errors in their approach to this There are differences between these two series, perhaps because the two sets of data are not date-aligned. The census counts population in April. The estimates may be at the end of the year, though this is not stated. The CSO revised their annual population estimates because the 2016 census showed a population increase that was greater than the expected value from their annual estimates. The 2016 population estimate from their two series that was published in 2016 was 4,673,700. The 2016 census gave the population as 4,761,865. That is a difference of 88,165. The CSO appear to derive estimates using a dead-reckoning approach by adding births, subtracting deaths, adding estimated immigration and subtracting estimated emigration. 13 http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=PEA01 14 http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=PEA11
  20. 20. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 20 2012 estimate = 2011 census + births in 2011 – deaths in 2011 + immigration in 2011 – emigration in 2011 2013 estimate = 2012 estimate + births in 2012 – deaths in 2012 + immigration in 2012 – emigration in 2012 2014 estimate = 2013 estimate + births in 2013 – deaths in 2013 + immigration in 2013 – emigration in 2013 2015 estimate = 2014 estimate + births in 2014 – deaths in 2014 + immigration in 2014 – emigration in 2014 2016 estimate = 2015 estimate + births in 2015 – deaths in 2014 + immigration in 2015 – emigration in 2015 It is clear that the 2016 population estimate diverged from the actual numbers. Of the four components that comprise the estimate, the numbers of births and deaths are generally very accurate. So the reasons for the positive divergence are an underestimate of immigration or an overestimate of emigration or both. The CSO have revised their population estimates in series PEA01 for years 2012 to 2016. In general they have increased their estimates for population aged 15-39 and reduced the estimates for other age groups. In 2016, they increased the population estimates for cohorts 15-39 was 92.6 thousand. They decreased the population estimates for cohorts 0-14 by 33.7 thousand. The detail of the changes made to the annual population estimates is: Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 All ages 8,300 21,600 35,800 52,400 65,900 Under 1 year -1,800 -2,600 -1,400 -3,900 -4,000 0 - 4 years -6,400 -12,700 -17,200 -23,000 -24,200 1 - 4 years -4,600 -10,100 -15,900 -19,000 -20,200 5 - 9 years 500 -100 200 -3,100 -7,900 10 - 14 years -900 -1,000 -1,300 -1,700 -1,600 15 - 19 years 5,800 9,900 11,500 12,900 13,100 20 - 24 years 7,400 20,100 32,300 42,000 46,700 25 - 29 years 300 1,800 900 8,300 14,300 30 - 34 years 1,700 3,900 4,400 5,300 9,100 35 - 39 years 900 3,000 5,000 8,300 9,400 40 - 44 years -1,100 -1,800 -700 1,200 2,000 45 - 49 years -400 -2,000 -2,300 -2,500 -1,400 50 - 54 years 0 -300 -400 -600 -1,200 55 - 59 years 0 0 400 700 1,500 60 - 64 years -100 -400 0 100 1,900 65 - 69 years 100 600 900 1,000 1,400 70 - 74 years 400 500 1,100 1,400 1,300 75 - 79 years 300 600 800 1,100 1,100 80 - 84 years 500 800 1,200 1,900 1,700 85 years and over -700 -1,400 -1,100 -1,100 -1,100
  21. 21. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 21 Migration Estimates Revisions The CSO also revised their estimates for numbers of emigrants and immigrants as contained in their data series PEA16 Estimated Emigration15 and PEA17 Estimated Immigration16. The revisions in the estimates emigration numbers were: Year Irish UK EU Other Nationalities Total 2012 3,200 3,200 -10,100 -400 -4,100 2013 -2,600 2,800 -8,500 600 -7,700 2014 4,300 3,100 -10,200 -4,200 -7,000 2015 7,200 1,800 -11,000 -8,900 -10,900 2016 5,300 2,600 -10,700 -7,100 -9,900 Total 17,400 13,500 -50,500 -20,000 -39,600 Estimated migration over the five years from 2012 to 2016 was reduced by 39,600. The revisions in the estimates immigration numbers were: Year Irish UK EU Other Nationalities Total 2012 -500 1,700 -2,000 5,300 4,500 2013 6,000 -800 -1,200 2,700 6,700 2014 11,200 -700 1,800 -6,500 5,800 2015 14,500 0 700 -8,500 6,700 2016 7,300 1,400 2,600 -8,200 3,100 Total 38,500 1,600 1,900 -15,200 26,800 Estimated immigration over the five years from 2012 to 2016 was increased by 26,800. Net Migration = Immigration (PEA17) – Emigration (PEA16). The CSO revised the net migration numbers from 2012 to 2016 by 66,400. The CSO had previously estimated that net migration in the interval 2012 to 2016 was -77,400, that is, there was net emigration. This has been revised to -11,000, a much smaller net emigration estimate. 15 PEA16 Estimated Emigration (Persons in April) by Sex, Nationality and Year - this contains data for the years 2006 to 2017 - http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?MainTable=PEA16 16 PEA17: Estimated Immigration (Persons in April) by Sex, Nationality and Year - this contains data for the years 1996 to 2017 - http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=PEA17
  22. 22. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 22 UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) Analysis of Differences Between National Insurance Registrations and Migration Estimates The UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) has attempted to engage with the issue of differences between national insurance registrations and migration estimates. They have published a paper on the topic Note On The Difference Between National Insurance Number Registrations And The Estimate Of Long-Term International Migration: 2016 17. In this paper they attempt to differentiate between Short-term International Migration (STIM) – migrants staying less than 12 months and Long-Term International Migration (LTIM) - migrants staying greater than 12 months. In the UK, LTIM data is taken from their International Passenger Survey (IPS). Respondents are asked their intention of staying in the UK or leaving the UK for more than 12 months. Within the stated intention of in-bound and out-bound STIM and LTIM there will people who change their minds and either switch from being a migrant to being a visitor or switch to being a migrant from being a visitor. In this diagram, red indicates a change that contributes to an unexpected increase in the population and greed a change that contributes to an unexpected decrease in the population. It is difficult to estimate the number of these in-bound and out-bound switchers. This paper quotes data from the UK Department of Work and Pensions (DWP) - Table 1: Average percentage of National Insurance number registrations between 2010/11 and 2013/14 17 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/ noteonthedifferencebetweennationalinsurancenumberregistrationsandtheestimateoflongterminternationalmigratio n/2016
  23. 23. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 23 2010 to 2013 percentages All Registrations All EU EU15 EU8 EU2 Non-EU Short-Durations: Registering with interactions of less than 52 weeks 27% - 35% 27% - 35% 34% - 40% 27% - 39% 19% - 26% 24% - 28% Average 30% Average 33% Average 36% Average 32% Average 23% Average 26% Indeterminate Durations: Arriving in a year prior to the registration year with an inferred stay of more than 52 weeks (by virtue of the gap between arrival date and registration), but who have limited interactions that confirm continuous residency 22% - 31% 17% - 25% 16% - 23% 14% - 24% 34% - 41% 36% - 37% Average 26% Average 20% Average 19% Average 18% Average 38% Average 37% Longer Durations: Registering with interactions of more than 52 weeks at arrival or registration 41% - 48% 43% - 52% 42% - 50% 46% - 55% 36% - 40% 35% - 40% Average 44% Average 47% Average 45% Average 50% Average 39% Average 37% If the short, indeterminate and longer duration rates in this UK data are applied to PPSN registrations in Ireland: Short Duration Indeterminate Duration Longer Duration EU 33% 20% 47% Non-EU 26% 37% 37% then the following numbers of Irish PPSN registrants will fall into the three categories: Year EU PPSN Non-EU PPSN Short Duration Indeterminate Duration Longer Duration CSO Estimated Immigration 2001 51,218 61,161 32,804 32,873 46,702 59,000 2002 45,375 120,295 46,250 53,584 65,835 66,900 2003 44,441 60,177 30,312 31,154 43,153 60,000 2004 93,426 39,837 41,188 33,425 58,650 58,500 2005 149,246 41,663 60,084 45,265 85,561 84,600 2006 182,629 48,433 72,860 54,446 103,756 107,800 2007 170,484 47,564 68,626 51,695 97,726 151,100 2008 111,556 44,595 48,408 38,811 68,931 113,500 2009 51,157 28,829 24,377 20,898 34,711 73,700 2010 43,966 25,072 21,028 18,070 29,941 41,800 2011 41,732 26,108 20,560 18,006 29,274 53,300 2012 46,879 26,447 22,346 19,161 31,819 57,300 2013 54,142 31,410 26,033 22,450 37,068 62,700 2014 60,339 36,033 29,280 25,400 41,692 66,500 2015 61,034 33,669 28,895 24,664 41,144 75,900 2016 70,442 37,255 32,932 27,873 46,892 82,300 2017 74,012 42,287 35,419 30,449 50,432 84,600 Total 1,352,078 750,835 641,403 548,225 913,286 1,299,500
  24. 24. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 24 Over the years 2001 to 2017, the total number of PPSN registrants that fall into either the Indeterminate Duration or Longer Duration categories – both involving stays of more than 52 weeks - is 1,461,510. This is over 160,000 more than the CSO’s estimate of immigration. Now, there is no basis for assuming that the percentages of UK national insurance registrants that fall into each of the three categories of duration of stay can be applied to Ireland. Similarly, there is no basis for assuming that they do not. The conclusions reached in this UK paper are: Short-term migration to the UK largely accounts for the recent differences between the number of long-term migrants (as estimated by the International Passenger Survey (IPS)) and the number of National Insurance number (NINo) registrations for EU citizens. NINo registrations data are not a good measure of LTIM, but they do provide a valuable source of information to highlight emerging changes in patterns of migration. Work on NINo interactions data supports these conclusions, but this is complex work and will need further consideration. We intend to continue to work on these data sources and hope to be able to publish further analysis in due course. These conclusions are probably simplistic. They may be more reflective of the emotion that surrounds the subject of migration in the UK and an attempt to avoid this rather than of the actual state of migration. However, at least the UK ONS have recognised the need to analyse and attempt to reconcile the discrepancy between national insurance registrations and migration numbers. Department of Justice Irish Naturalisation and Immigration Service (INIS) Statistics The Department of Justice and the Irish Naturalisation and Immigration Service (INIS) published very limited statistics18 on the numbers of people granted residency in Ireland. All non-EEA nationals living in Ireland for longer than 90 days are required to register with Irish Naturalisation and Immigration Service (INIS) (in the Dublin region) or An Garda Síochána (outside Dublin). The following table summarises the limited information available on the numbers granted residency. It also contains the number of PPSNs granted to people living in non-EEA countries. 18 See:  http://www.justice.ie/en/JELR/Immigration_in_Ireland_Annual_Review_2017.pdf/Files/Immigration_in_Irel and_Annual_Review_2017.pdf  http://www.justice.ie/en/JELR/INIS_Immigration_in_Ireland_Annual_Review_2016.pdf/Files/INIS_Immigra tion_in_Ireland_Annual_Review_2016.pdf  http://www.justice.ie/en/JELR/INIS%20- %20Immigration%20in%20Ireland%20Annual%20Review%202015.pdf/Files/INIS%20- %20Immigration%20in%20Ireland%20Annual%20Review%202015.pdf  http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/WP0700006
  25. 25. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 25 Year Non-EEA/EU28 PPSNs Granted Total Non-EEA/ EU28 Residency Registrations 2001 60,959 2002 120,089 2003 59,977 2004 39,621 2005 41,392 2006 48,205 2007 47,318 2008 44,334 2009 28,610 2010 24,851 2011 25,888 2012 26,234 2013 31,216 107,838 2014 35,808 105,569 2015 33,464 114,586 2016 37,052 115,077 2017 42,060 127,955 Total 747,078 In 2017, there were a total of 127,955 people from non-EEA/EU28 countries who had been granted residency in Ireland to allow them stay more than 90 days. From 2001 to 2017 a total of 747,078 PPSNs had been granted by the DEASP to people from non-EEA/EU28 counties. It is very difficult to explain this very large difference. Assuming that both sets of number are correct and that compliance with residency regulations is high, the inference appears to be that nearly 83% of EEA citizens that applied for PPSNs in Ireland either have left the country or have acquired some other form of residency such as through marriage. Irish Population and Migration Migration, both immigration and emigration, has a significant impact on both the population profile and size of Ireland. The information contained here is taken from the CSO time series PEA1119 Population estimates from 1926 by Single Year of Age, Sex and Year time series. This contains estimates of the population at each year of age from 1996 to 2017 as the census in Ireland occurs every five years. This chart just shows the data between the two years 1996 and 2007. It does not show the evolution of these changes over the interval. 19 http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=PEA11
  26. 26. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 26 There are some initial obvious trends that can be seen from this that are numbered in the chart:
  27. 27. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 27 1. The overall increase in the population of Ireland, from 3,626,087 in 1996 to 4,792,490 in 2017 or an increase of just over 32% in the 21 years. This is a cumulative average annual increase of 1.34%. The contribution to population increase from the excess of births over deaths averaged around 0.8% in the interval 1996 to 2017. The remainder of the growth is due to net immigration. In fact, net immigration is a greater contributor as the immigrants themselves contribute to the birth rate. 2. The size of the population aged 0-9 has increased. In the 21 years between the start and end of the interval, the number increased by 135,000. This indicates an increase demand for childcare and primary schooling resources. 3. The size of the population aged 13-24 has decreased. This is a legacy of low birth rates at the start of the interval. In 1996, the excess of births over deaths was 18,876. In 2008 the excess was 47,532. This is an example of a population kink moving through the years like a wave. As I mentioned above, a portion of the increased births is due to immigration. 4. The size of the population aged 30 onwards has increased. This is due to both the population aged 10 onwards in 1996 becoming older and to net immigration. 5. The size of the population ages 80 and old has increased and this is skewed towards women. This is due to increased life expectancy, especially for women. 6. The size of the population aged 2 to 7 is greater than the population aged 0 and 1. This difference can only be due to net immigration (including returned emigrants) of people with young families. The following chart overlays the 2017 measured population profile with the notional expected population profile for 2017 by taking the number of births in 2017 and applying the most recent mortality rates contained in Irish Life Table Number 1620. 20 http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ilt/irishlifetablesno162010-2012/
  28. 28. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 28
  29. 29. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 29 So this shows the notional “closed” population profile without any migration. The purpose of this is to allow differences between a closed and open population to be identified. The main differences between this and the actual population in 2017 are numbered in the chart. 1. The numbers aged 3-10 are greater than would be expected. This indicates emigration of young children as part of family groups. 2. The numbers aged 19-29 are lower than would be expected. This indicates the consequence of lower birth rates in the mid-1990s. It also indicates net migration of people in this age range. 3. The numbers aged 31-47 are greater than would be expected. This indicates the consequences of net immigration. The difference is greater for women than for men 4. The numbers aged 53 onwards are lower than would be expected. This indicates the consequence of changes in mortality rates over time. In general people are living longer now than before. The closed population numbers are based on the most recent morality rates. The CSO publish regional data by five year (unfortunately different from the single year estimates in the PEA11 time series referenced above) cohort in the time series PEA0721 Estimated Population (Persons in April) by Age Group, Sex, Regional Authority Area and Year Revenue Income Tax Statistics The latest Revenue income tax data22 is available for 2015. Everybody in employment should be registered for income tax. This classifies income tax payers by case type: Income Tax Case Type Number of Cases People Married Couples - Both Earning 487,658 975,316 Married Couples - One Earning 389,878 779,756 Single Females 640,027 640,027 Single Males 694,732 694,732 Widowers 25,391 25,391 Widows 64,112 64,112 Total 2,301,798 3,179,334 The number of people registered for income tax in 2015 aged 15 and above represents 84.66% of the population of 3,755,313 aged 15 and above in 2016. So the proportions of cases and people by marital status are: Income Tax Case Type Number of Cases People Married 38.12% 55.20% Single 57.99% 41.98% Widowed 3.89% 2.82% 21 http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=PEA07 22 https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/information-about-revenue/statistics/income-distributions/it.aspx
  30. 30. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 30 The information is reported on the basis of taxpayer units and not individual taxpayers. Married persons or civil partners who have elected or who have been deemed to have elected for joint assessment are counted as one tax unit. Number of Cases refers to the number of taxpayer units. Income tax payers does not equate to workers. For example, if you are aged 65 or over, you are liable to pay income tax in the normal way. So, in the case of the case types Married Couples - Both Earning and Married Couples - One Earning the number of cases can be multiplied by two to get the number of people represented by the case numbers. The Revenue do not publish details on the ages of income tax papers. Revenue did publish a paper Income Dynamics & Mobility in Ireland: Evidence from Tax Records Microdata23 that contains broad income tax age data in Table 3: Income by Age for New Entrants 2015 for All Taxpayers: Age Band Proportion of All Taxpayers Age 15 – 24 17.18% Age 25 – 34 25.47% Age 35 – 44 20.38% Age 45 – 54 13.79% Age 55 – 64 10.39% Age 65 + 12.79% Total 100.00% I have adjusted the rounding slightly in the table so the sum of the proportions of all age ranges is 100%. Based on these proportions, the numbers of tax cases and number of people represented by those cases in each age band will be: Age Band Number of Tax Cases Estimated Number of People in Age Band Paying Tax Age 15 – 24 395,514 400,739 Age 25 – 34 586,372 723,016 Age 35 – 44 469,098 712,708 Age 45 – 54 317,331 490,819 Age 55 – 64 239,148 380,061 Age 65 + 294,336 471,992 Total 2,301,798 3,179,334 As an aside, the UK publish income tax age distribution statistics24 for the years 2010-11, 2011-12, 2012- 13, 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16. The UK numbers for the Irish age bands are: 23 https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/documents/research/income-dynamics-mobility-ireland.pdf 24 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/distribution-of-median-and-mean-income-and-tax-by-age-range-and- gender-2010-to-2011
  31. 31. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 31 Age Band Ireland 2015 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 Age 15 – 24 17.20% 7.83% 7.04% 6.61% 6.10% 6.10% 6.00% Age 25 – 34 25.50% 19.27% 19.05% 18.92% 18.47% 18.63% 18.92% Age 35 – 44 20.40% 20.26% 19.62% 18.98% 18.31% 18.09% 18.12% Age 45 – 54 13.80% 20.58% 20.65% 20.52% 20.26% 20.20% 20.26% Age 55 – 64 10.40% 16.40% 15.69% 15.50% 14.92% 14.83% 15.12% Age 65 + 12.80% 15.66% 16.27% 17.19% 19.08% 20.26% 20.74% There are some considerable differences between the UK and Irish values, especially in the age bands Age 15 – 24 and Age 65 +. Some of this variation such as that for the age band Age 15 – 24 at could be explained by the different population age profiles in the UK and Ireland as well as other factors such as higher school leaving ages, gap years before starting third-level education or employment and higher attendance rates at third and fourth level education for the UK when compared with Ireland. The differences between Ireland and the UK in the age band Age 65 + are probably due, at least in part, to historical levels of non-registration for income tax by pensioners. Anyone receiving an Irish state pension, with no other sources of income, is not liable for income tax. However, if a person is in receipt of an additional income source such as an occupational pension from a former employer, they may be liable to pay tax on their state pension if their total income is above a certain level. Historically many such pensioners did not pay tax. In 2011, Revenue started to address this discrepancy. It is possible to extrapolate age data from the original Revenue income tax distribution and the limited income tax age data available. The series PEA01 Population Estimates (Persons in April) by Age Group, Sex and Year25 contains population estimates for 2015. Age Band Size of Population in Age Band in 2015 Estimated Number of People in Age Band Paying Tax Difference Between Population and Number Paying Tax Age 15 – 24 571,600 400,739 170,861 Age 25 – 34 667,900 723,016 -55,116 Age 35 – 44 732,800 712,708 20,092 Age 45 – 54 612,200 490,819 121,381 Age 55 – 64 491,400 380,061 111,339 Age 65 + 610,300 471,992 138,308 Total 3,686,200 3,179,334 There is clearly a discrepancy in the age band Age 25 – 34 between the estimated number of tax payers and the population size. 25 https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=PEA01
  32. 32. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 32 Numbers in Third Level Education The estimate for the numbers in third-level education are taken from the Department of Education and Science data series EDA99 Students Enrolled in and Entrants to Third Level Courses by Institution, Year and Statistic26. Year Full-time Enrolments to Third Level Courses 2000 115,696 2001 119,991 2002 124,589 2003 129,283 2004 133,887 2005 133,691 2006 136,719 2007 138,362 2008 139,134 2009 146,068 2010 156,973 2011 161,647 2012 163,068 2013 164,863 2014 169,254 2015 173,649 2016 179,850 2017 181,039 I am using third-level numbers as a component of the population aged 18 onwards. A small number of third-level entrants will be younger than 18 years. In addition, a number of second-level students will be aged 18 and so will be excluded from the education number side of the population consistent check equation. Unemployment Statistics Introduction Counting unemployment in Ireland is not as simple as just counting the numbers on the live register – those receiving job seeker’s allowance and benefit. The total number of unemployed includes those receiving long-term disability payments and those receiving payments from the Activation and Family Support Programme and the various Working Age Employment Support scheme payments. In the context of using the various unemployment numbers to cross-check overall population number, the issue of labour force participation has to be considered. 26 https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=EDA99
  33. 33. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 33 An individual is defined as active in the labour force if they are either in employment or unemployed and seeking work. A person is classified as inactive or outside the labour force if they are neither working nor looking for work. The OECD state that Ireland has a relatively low labour force participation rate of 72.5%. I think that this value may be low because of the use of disability allowance and various activation schemes to reduce the size of the Live Register. For some formal definitions of labour force and participation rate see: https://data.oecd.org/emp/labour-force.htm The labour force, or currently active population, comprises all persons who fulfil the requirements for inclusion among the employed (civilian employment plus the armed forces) or the unemployed. The employed are defined as those who work for pay or profit for at least one hour a week, or who have a job but are temporarily not at work due to illness, leave or industrial action. The armed forces cover personnel from the metropolitan territory drawn from the total available labour force who served in the armed forces during the period under consideration, whether stationed in the metropolitan territory or elsewhere. The unemployed are defined as people without work but actively seeking employment and currently available to start work. This indicator is seasonally adjusted and it is measured in persons. https://data.oecd.org/emp/labour-force-participation-rate.htm The labour force participation rate is calculated as the labour force divided by the total working-age population. The working age population refers to people aged 15 to 64. The classes of labour force data can be represented as:
  34. 34. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 34 Unemployment Statistics This section contains information on people on the Live Register. It also includes the numbers of recipients of Disability Allowance and of various working age employment supports. I have taken the total number of unemployed as the sum of the Live Register, the number of recipients of Disability Allowance and the number receiving Working Age Employment Supports. The reason for this is that these last two categories has been used to reduce the size of the Live Register. In the 10 years from 2007 to 2016, the number receiving Disability Allowance increased by 37,343 or 42%. The number receiving various Working Age Employment Supports increased by 43,578 or over 415%. These last two sets of data are only published annually in the statistical report of the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection (DEASP). I have not attempted to interpolate monthly values to match the monthly live register time series.
  35. 35. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 35 Year and Month Persons on the Live Register (Number)27 Total Working Age Employment Supports28 Disability Allowance Recipients29 Live Register + Disability + Working Age Supports Jan 2007 158,752 10,495 88,860 258,107 Feb 2007 159,399 10,495 88,860 258,754 Mar 2007 155,869 10,495 88,860 255,224 Apr 2007 154,319 10,495 88,860 253,674 May 2007 154,010 10,495 88,860 253,365 Jun 2007 166,363 10,495 88,860 265,718 Jul 2007 174,593 10,495 88,860 273,948 Aug 2007 174,206 10,495 88,860 273,561 Sep 2007 160,652 10,495 88,860 260,007 Oct 2007 157,449 10,495 88,860 256,804 Nov 2007 161,722 10,495 88,860 261,077 Dec 2007 170,376 10,495 88,860 269,731 Jan 2008 181,449 11,628 95,754 288,831 Feb 2008 189,485 11,628 95,754 296,867 Mar 2008 197,992 11,628 95,754 305,374 Apr 2008 195,598 11,628 95,754 302,980 May 2008 201,756 11,628 95,754 309,138 Jun 2008 220,811 11,628 95,754 328,193 Jul 2008 238,240 11,628 95,754 345,622 Aug 2008 247,384 11,628 95,754 354,766 Sep 2008 240,217 11,628 95,754 347,599 Oct 2008 250,680 11,628 95,754 358,062 Nov 2008 267,189 11,628 95,754 374,571 Dec 2008 290,018 11,628 95,754 397,400 Jan 2009 326,272 18,062 99,576 443,910 Feb 2009 352,453 18,062 99,576 470,091 Mar 2009 369,203 18,062 99,576 486,841 Apr 2009 381,876 18,062 99,576 499,514 May 2009 394,134 18,062 99,576 511,772 Jun 2009 415,462 18,062 99,576 533,100 Jul 2009 432,421 18,062 99,576 550,059 Aug 2009 436,725 18,062 99,576 554,363 Sep 2009 419,854 18,062 99,576 537,492 Oct 2009 412,407 18,062 99,576 530,045 Nov 2009 413,505 18,062 99,576 531,143 Dec 2009 423,595 18,062 99,576 541,233 Jan 2010 436,936 22,159 101,111 560,206 Feb 2010 436,956 22,159 101,111 560,226 Mar 2010 435,121 22,159 101,111 558,391 Apr 2010 432,657 22,159 101,111 555,927 May 2010 437,922 22,159 101,111 561,192 27 This is taken from LRM17 Persons on the Live Register by Age Group, Region, Sex and Month - https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=LRM17. 28 This is taken from Table A4 – Number of Recipients of main periodic benefits by Programme and Insurance or Assistance - http://www.welfare.ie/en/pdf/DEASP_Annual_Statistics_Report_2016.pdf. 29 This is taken from Table E1 – Number of Beneficiaries of Illness, Disability and Caring benefits by type - http://www.welfare.ie/en/pdf/DEASP_Annual_Statistics_Report_2016.pdf.
  36. 36. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 36 Year and Month Persons on the Live Register (Number)27 Total Working Age Employment Supports28 Disability Allowance Recipients29 Live Register + Disability + Working Age Supports Jun 2010 452,882 22,159 101,111 576,152 Jul 2010 466,824 22,159 101,111 590,094 Aug 2010 466,923 22,159 101,111 590,193 Sep 2010 442,417 22,159 101,111 565,687 Oct 2010 429,553 22,159 101,111 552,823 Nov 2010 425,002 22,159 101,111 548,272 Dec 2010 437,079 22,159 101,111 560,349 Jan 2011 442,677 27,869 102,866 573,412 Feb 2011 444,299 27,869 102,866 575,034 Mar 2011 441,193 27,869 102,866 571,928 Apr 2011 439,571 27,869 102,866 570,306 May 2011 440,947 27,869 102,866 571,682 Jun 2011 457,948 27,869 102,866 588,683 Jul 2011 470,284 27,869 102,866 601,019 Aug 2011 469,713 27,869 102,866 600,448 Sep 2011 437,441 27,869 102,866 568,176 Oct 2011 430,432 27,869 102,866 561,167 Nov 2011 429,567 27,869 102,866 560,302 Dec 2011 434,784 27,869 102,866 565,519 Jan 2012 438,885 59,869 101,784 600,538 Feb 2012 438,765 59,869 101,784 600,418 Mar 2012 433,459 59,869 101,784 595,112 Apr 2012 429,360 59,869 101,784 591,013 May 2012 432,294 59,869 101,784 593,947 Jun 2012 451,332 59,869 101,784 612,985 Jul 2012 459,539 59,869 101,784 621,192 Aug 2012 455,754 59,869 101,784 617,407 Sep 2012 428,596 59,869 101,784 590,249 Oct 2012 419,443 59,869 101,784 581,096 Nov 2012 417,626 59,869 101,784 579,279 Dec 2012 423,269 59,869 101,784 584,922 Jan 2013 428,712 65,247 106,279 600,238 Feb 2013 428,267 65,247 106,279 599,793 Mar 2013 424,357 65,247 106,279 595,883 Apr 2013 417,135 65,247 106,279 588,661 May 2013 421,290 65,247 106,279 592,816 Jun 2013 434,905 65,247 106,279 606,431 Jul 2013 441,545 65,247 106,279 613,071 Aug 2013 434,844 65,247 106,279 606,370 Sep 2013 408,237 65,247 106,279 579,763 Oct 2013 396,097 65,247 106,279 567,623 Nov 2013 391,128 65,247 106,279 562,654 Dec 2013 395,068 65,247 106,279 566,594 Jan 2014 399,244 72,614 112,097 583,955 Feb 2014 397,722 72,614 112,097 582,433 Mar 2014 390,916 72,614 112,097 575,627 Apr 2014 388,258 72,614 112,097 572,969 May 2014 388,486 72,614 112,097 573,197
  37. 37. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 37 Year and Month Persons on the Live Register (Number)27 Total Working Age Employment Supports28 Disability Allowance Recipients29 Live Register + Disability + Working Age Supports Jun 2014 398,547 72,614 112,097 583,258 Jul 2014 404,217 72,614 112,097 588,928 Aug 2014 398,042 72,614 112,097 582,753 Sep 2014 369,783 72,614 112,097 554,494 Oct 2014 358,081 72,614 112,097 542,792 Nov 2014 352,372 72,614 112,097 537,083 Dec 2014 355,860 72,614 112,097 540,571 Jan 2015 358,376 64,037 119,042 541,455 Feb 2015 354,858 64,037 119,042 537,937 Mar 2015 348,397 64,037 119,042 531,476 Apr 2015 343,258 64,037 119,042 526,337 May 2015 345,331 64,037 119,042 528,410 Jun 2015 356,196 64,037 119,042 539,275 Jul 2015 363,313 64,037 119,042 546,392 Aug 2015 358,799 64,037 119,042 541,878 Sep 2015 332,470 64,037 119,042 515,549 Oct 2015 320,531 64,037 119,042 503,610 Nov 2015 316,331 64,037 119,042 499,410 Dec 2015 321,373 64,037 119,042 504,452 Jan 2016 321,513 54,073 126,203 501,789 Feb 2016 319,449 54,073 126,203 499,725 Mar 2016 315,364 54,073 126,203 495,640 Apr 2016 305,540 54,073 126,203 485,816 May 2016 306,822 54,073 126,203 487,098 Jun 2016 315,654 54,073 126,203 495,930 Jul 2016 318,995 54,073 126,203 499,271 Aug 2016 316,018 54,073 126,203 496,294 Sep 2016 286,103 54,073 126,203 466,379 Oct 2016 276,809 54,073 126,203 457,085 Nov 2016 273,160 54,073 126,203 453,436 Dec 2016 276,502 54,073 126,203 456,778 Jan 2017 276,892 Feb 2017 275,093 Mar 2017 267,202 Apr 2017 263,417 May 2017 262,702 Jun 2017 268,726 Jul 2017 274,385 Aug 2017 264,256 Sep 2017 244,319 Oct 2017 236,492 Nov 2017 233,209 Dec 2017 236,268 Jan 2018 237,386 Feb 2018 235,344 Mar 2018 232,366 Apr 2018 223,602 May 2018 223,502
  38. 38. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 38 Year and Month Persons on the Live Register (Number)27 Total Working Age Employment Supports28 Disability Allowance Recipients29 Live Register + Disability + Working Age Supports Jun 2018 228,065 The following chart shows the data in this table: The series Total Working Age Employment Supports and Disability Allowance Recipients are plotted with respect to the right-hand axis.
  39. 39. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 39 Bringing It All Together At the start of this paper, the following diagram was presented: The following information is presented for the year 2015, which is the latest year for which all the data is available. Item Description Value 1 This is taken from PEA11 Population estimates from 1926 by Single Year of Age, Sex and Year 2,979,575 2 The derivation of this value is described on page 29. 3,179,334 3 The derivation of this value is described on page 29. I have taken the value of the number of income tax payers in the band Age 65 +. 471,992 4 The derivation of this value is described on page 32. 173,649 5 The derivation of this value is described on page 32. I have used the value for Live Register + Disability + Working Age Supports for December 2015. 504,452 6 If I add the values of the population aged 18-66 (2,979,575) and subtract from this the number in third-level education of 173,649 from item 4 above and the number of recipients of disability benefits of 64,037, I get a value for the potentially available labour force of 2,741,889. If I then assume that 27.5% of the potentially working population is inactive (see the information on labour force participation rates on page 32), I get a value of 754,019 for the inactive labour force. I feel that this value is simply and contra intuitively too high. For this reason, I have not included it here. To include it would distort the difference to an absurd extent. More work is needed on correctly identifying the Irish labour force participation rate.
  40. 40. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 40 The equation should be roughly: Item 1 = Item 2 – Item 3 + Item 4 + Item 5 Item 1 = 2,979,575 Item 2 – Item 3 + Item 4 + Item 5 = 3,179,334 - 471,992 + 173,649 + 504,452 = 3,385,443 There is a significant difference of 405,868 between these two numbers. This is without adding any value for the estimated inactive labour force. Some of the difference will be accounted for by the overlapping areas. But the overlapping and therefore double-counted values will not account for all of the difference. Pension Data This section contains a further cross-check. It compares pension data published30 by the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection (DEASP) with population data31. The following shows the numbers of recipients of pensioners in various age ranges for the years 2005 to 2016, the last year for which pension data is available. Age Range 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 65-70 80,088 70,061 74,660 98,007 106,287 115,004 125,033 133,072 138,251 147,909 178,844 182,588 70-74 87,474 97,215 98,819 98,663 100,176 101,551 103,835 107,990 112,505 135,036 112,882 120,191 75-79 64,180 76,208 78,821 75,595 78,919 81,188 83,238 84,415 86,089 106,502 107,937 109,313 80-84 40,328 48,567 50,409 47,752 49,295 51,982 54,162 56,441 58,569 79,026 81,027 83,135 85-89 19,469 25,153 26,496 24,857 25,935 26,597 27,590 28,297 29,541 43,308 45,338 46,938 90-94 6,967 8,922 9,158 8,237 8,562 9,314 9,682 10,279 10,617 17,123 17,438 17,921 95 and Over 1,606 2,087 2,813 2,032 2,104 2,168 2,314 2,318 2,390 3,820 4,134 4,344 Total 300,112 328,213 341,176 355,143 371,278 387,804 405,854 422,812 437,962 532,724 547,600 564,430 The following shows the populations in the same age ranges for the years. Age Range 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 65-70 140,843 141,245 144,094 149,826 156,631 163,538 172,071 181,616 190,025 197,220 203,566 207,969 70-74 117,367 117,463 119,462 121,677 124,577 127,947 130,127 133,130 138,686 144,397 150,844 159,902 75-79 90,989 91,439 92,492 94,464 96,786 99,073 101,366 103,948 106,354 109,089 112,170 114,178 80-84 63,985 64,389 65,590 65,872 66,934 68,355 69,757 71,546 73,382 76,118 78,779 80,465 85-89 31,596 33,149 34,334 36,463 37,726 38,679 39,770 40,831 41,307 42,339 43,671 44,701 90-94 11,687 12,009 12,328 12,412 12,964 14,020 14,830 14,980 15,290 16,036 16,712 17,934 95 and Over 2,414 2,670 2,721 3,030 3,284 3,441 3,642 4,006 4,142 4,285 4,528 4,698 30 Table B4: Number of Recipients of State Pensions by Age and Sex in the various reports published at http://www.welfare.ie/en/Pages/Annual-SWS-Statistical-Information-Report.aspx 31 This is taken from PEA11: Population estimates from 1926 by Single Year of Age, Sex and Year https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=PEA11.
  41. 41. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 41 Age Range 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total 458,881 462,364 471,021 483,744 498,902 515,053 531,563 550,057 569,186 589,484 610,270 629,847 The number of state pensioners is generally less than the numbers in the corresponding population age groups. Some exceptions can be explained by difference in alignment of the time of the year when the information was collected and thus the age of the people affected will be different. Year Age Range State Pension Recipients Population Difference Difference % 2007 95 and over 2,813 2,721 92 3.38% 2014 80-84 79,026 76,118 2,908 3.82% 2014 85-89 43,308 42,339 969 2.29% 2014 90-94 17,123 16,036 1,087 6.78% 2015 80-84 81,027 78,779 2,248 2.85% 2015 85-89 45,338 43,671 1,667 3.82% 2015 90-94 17,438 16,712 726 4.34% 2016 80-84 83,135 80,465 2,670 3.32% 2016 85-89 46,938 44,701 2,237 5.00% Some Conclusions The various sources of population-related data are inconsistent with one another. Discrepancies between other data sources from which population data can be inferred and the CSO’s population data indicate that there may be ongoing errors. Consistency checking between multiple sets of related data is a standard technique to identify potential quality data issues that should then be the subject of further analysis. Detailed consistency checking is hampered by the limited set of information made publically available by various state agencies. This analysis has looked at the following sets of data with a view to identifying potential data conflicts: 1. DEASP PPSN Registration Numbers 2. CSO PPSN Numbers 3. CSO Migration Numbers 4. CSO Population Numbers 5. Revenue Income Tax Numbers 6. Department of Education Third-Level Numbers 7. DEASP Pensioner Numbers 8. DEASP Live Register/Disability/Work Activation Numbers 9. Irish Naturalisation and Immigration Service (INIS) Statistics
  42. 42. Estimating The Size of the Irish Population Page 42 The following chart attempt to represent the major inconsistencies between these data types: The width of the bar between the pairs of data types is a view of the extent of the discrepancy. There has been past issues with determining the extent of immigration. This in turn creates an issue with the size of the population of Ireland. This analysis has identified one possible set of inconsistencies relating to the size of the Irish population. It may well be that the population of Ireland is greater that than counted by the CSO in the census. Population sizes at various ages determine the demand for different societal resources. People are, after all, the direct and indirect buyers and users of products and services, both public and private sector. People drive demand. Changes in the profile of people – numbers and ages – will change the demand profile.
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