Renewable Energy::Pakistan Perspective 2013

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Renewable Energy::Pakistan Perspective 2013

  1. 1. Renewable Energy :Prospects UpdateIEEEP Annual ConferenceMarch 2013Akhtar AliPro-Plan Associatesakhtarali1949@gmail.com1
  2. 2. Renewables share in Total Energy Global = 17-18% O/W Traditional Biomass = 9% Other renewable = 8% 30 Countries have a share of more than 20% EU & US = 12% Europe & Majors = 10% Japan = 6%2
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  4. 4. Global ScenarioShare of Renewable Energy2030 2040 2050Conservative 10 – 15 15 -Moderate 22 35 40High 40% 60 804
  5. 5. Share of Renewable ElectricityCountries Existing 2030 2050Europe 21% 36 – 65 97 – 100US 11% 15 – 71 30 – 90Japan 10% 20 – 57 85 – 100China 18% 25 – 43 50 – 92India/Other Asia 31% 16 – 62 27 – 86LA 54 – 86 60 – 100Africa 50 34 – 925
  6. 6. World Capacities of various RenewableTechnologies - Status & ProjectionsGW2006 2011 2030Hydro 800 970 1300 – 1740Wind 74 238 920 – 2700Solar PV 8 70 490 – 1000CSP 0.40 1.8 40 – 140Biomass 45 72 210 – 340Geo thermal 9.5 11 30 – 50Ocean 0.3 0.5 10 – 20938+ 1362World Total 4000USA 900Pakistan 256
  7. 7. Countries Share in various RENUSA GER Spain Italy China India Japan ROWSolar PV % 5.7 35.6 6.5 18.3 4.4 7.1Solar HeatingAddedCapacity%0.9 1.9 0.6 0.8 81% 1.5 8.1Solar HeatingTotalCapacity%1 5% 4 64.8 1.5Wind PowerAdditions MW4.8 2 1.1 17 3WP totalcapacity MW42 28 20 45 13Hydro % Total 49 67
  8. 8. Comparative features of variousRenewable TechnologiesPlant Size MW CapacityFactor %Energy Cost USCents / kwhBiomass 25 – 100 70 – 80 7.9 – 17.6Geo thermal 1 – 100 60 – 90 5.7 – 10.7Hydro Power Grid base 1 – 18000 30 – 60 5 – 10Micro Hydro 0.1 – 1000 kw - 5 – 40Ocean (Tidal) 1 – 250 23 – 29 21 – 28Solar PV roof top 3.5 kw 10 – 20 22Solar PV Utility 2.5 – 100 10 – 20 20Wind Power on shore 1.5 – 3.5 20 – 40 5.21 – 16.5Biogas CHP 0.5 – 5 MW 80 11.8 – 35.2 USD/GJBio diesel 16.5 – 177Ethanol 20 – 102/L8
  9. 9. Renewable Energy Cost TrendsLevelized cents/kWh in constant $20001Wind1980 1990 2000 2010 2020PVCOEcents/kWh1980 1990 2000 2010 2020403020100100806040200BiomassGeothermal Solar thermal1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020COEcents/kWh108642070605040302010015129630Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt)1These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.Updated: October 2002
  10. 10. Wind Power in Pakistan• 2X50 MW projects already installed(Zorlu,FFC)• Several at Planning Stage• Total Potential Sindh-30,000 MW• Actual Potential : 10% of Total(2500 MW)• High Capacity Factor-31%• Unrealistically High Tariff-16 cents per kWh10
  11. 11. Feed in Tariff in EU RegionWind Power5.117.4 7.5 7.78 7.80 8.6110.21 10.21 10.6511.67 11.9613.0017.210.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.00DenmarkTurkey1Brazil2India(Gujrat)USAChinaGermanySlovakiaSpainGreeceFranceCanadaNetherlandsUScents/kwh12
  12. 12. Wind Power capacity factors in selected countries%0510152025303540IndiaNetherlandsSpainGermanyChinaSwedenDenmarkPakistanTurkeyBrazilUSA13
  13. 13. Wind Is The Cheapest Power Source inUruguay• The average winning price in a recentUruguayan auction for three 50MW windpower projects was US $63.70 per MWh. Thecost of diesel or fuel-oil generated electricityin Uruguay is $135 – 140 per MWh.14
  14. 14. Wind Power in Brazil is Cheaper thanGas• Developers of 44 wind farms bid an average ofBRZ$99.58 (US$62) per MWh – below theaverage price for the two natural gas projects(BRZ$103.26), and a hydro project (BRZ$102)• 1 USD=2 BRZ• http://www.greenwellfuture.com/wind_power_in_brazil15
  15. 15. Comparative Solar Suitability of regions16
  16. 16. Solar PV Cells18
  17. 17. Family of PV cells and efficiencies19
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  19. 19. Solar PV applications and Businessmodels thereof•Residential/small off-grid•Residential grid integrated•Utility distributed•Utility Power Plant21
  20. 20. Off-grid Solar PV application22
  21. 21. Grid Connected Residential PVapplication23
  22. 22. Schematic layout of Solar PVutility Power Plant24
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  35. 35. Solar PV Cost & Tariff in variouscountries(2013)Capital Cost USD/W Tariff CapacityPV Panels BoS Total Usc/kWh Factor%India(regulated) 0.63 0.85 1.481 16.2 19India Auctions 11.8-15.9Europe(Germany) 0.78 0.9 1.68 17.55 10Spain/Italy 15.6 14.8USA(Calif,Texas,Florida) 15-17 18California Auctions 8.92-12 19Pakistan(proposed) 2.392 23.29 17_______________________________________________________________________Source: compiled by the Author(CERC India, PV-magazine, NEPRA)37
  36. 36. Comparative CAPEX for Solar PV utilities(centralized)invarious regions(2013)in USD/WIndia China Europe/USUS target 2020(Sunshot)Total(panels+ BoS)o/w 1.481 1.35 1.681 1Panels 0.63 0.5 0.78 0.5BOS o/w 0.85 0.85 0.9 0.5land Civil Works(% of BoS) 14 0.2Racking structures-do 13 0.2Inverter-do 7 0.18Grid Interface/do 15 0.12Various incl IDC/do 10 0.2Source: compiled by the Author(CERC India, Solar Server, GTM Market Study)38
  37. 37. Comparative Solar PV Installed costs 2012-13(USD/W)IRTPV-March2013Europe USA ChinaPV Module 0.69 0.69 0.50BoS 0.47 1.00 0.57Owner’sCost(say)0.25 0.25 0.25Total 1.41 1.94 1.3239
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  40. 40. Pakistan Projected Demand of REN(2025-50)2013 2025 2050Total InstalledCapacity25000 MW 50,000 MW 150,000 MWRENShare(10,20,40%)2500 10000 60,000Wind 1500 5000 30,000Solar PV 1500 5000 30,000Hydro 6000 15000 30,000Bio-Mass-gas BioCNG42
  41. 41. Pakistan Solar PV Tubes well market•Total Tube well = 1,000,000•o/w Diesel = 834905 – 11000 MW• Electric = 85868 – 1104 MW• 40% run less than 800 hrs•Bulk of the Pumps 11-75 ft head•75-80% of Tube Wells in Punjab•Diesel – Number of days of Tube Well per year = 125•Electric Number of days of Tube Well per year = 184•10 – 15 -20 – 22 – 25 HP Avg 17•Replacement demand = 400,000 (1994 and older)•Average annual demand = 30,000 pumps@ 10 kw per = 300 MW/prsay = 100 MW (for 10,000 pumps)43
  42. 42. Item units Amount/ValueSolar PV capacity kW 15Capacity factor hours 1600Annual Electricity produced kWh 24000Replacement cost of Diesel Rs/kWh 25Annual Diesel replacement Rs/yr 600000CAPEX Solar PV and Pump Rs 1800000Investment Payback Period years 3Equity @30% Rs 540000Loan Rs 1260000Repayment period years 10interest rate %p.a 14Annual Debt servicng Rs 241,559Annual saving for first 10 yrs Rs 298,441Equity payback Period yrs $1.81Present Value of 25 yrs saving Rs 5,446,224Net Present Value @10% Rs 3,646,224IRR % 33.31Electricity cost in1-10 years Rs/kWh 10.06Electricity cost in11-25 years 0Micro-economics of Solar PV in Tube-well visa-vis Diesel EngineCase study of a 15 kW Solar Tube-well replacing diesel engine44
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  45. 45. ISSUES•T & D Losses•High cost of Energy (circular debt)•High Capital Costs•Institutional Issues•Lack of Transparency•Lack of Competitions•Local content /technology47
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