Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Cerebration Duke Bd Ventures Final

458 views

Published on

duke

Published in: Education, News & Politics
  • Be the first to comment

Cerebration Duke Bd Ventures Final

  1. 1. Bobby Brenman Vishal Patel Anupam Bhandari Kyle Gardner CEREBRATION 2009
  2. 2. Objective: Increase profits in next 2-4 years building long-term value
  3. 3. Challenges Strategy Implementation Financial Analysis Agenda:
  4. 4. Global Economic Crisis Increasing Competition Customer Preferences Personalization One-stop shop Information Best deal
  5. 5. What can we control?
  6. 6. Expansion Strategy
  7. 7. 1 Focus on core geographies 2 3 Expand user base Improve user experience Strategy
  8. 8. Value Knowledge & Relationships
  9. 9. 1 Focus on core geographies Strategy
  10. 10. Singapore China, Hong Kong, Macau Philippines Malaysia Thailand Indonesia 6 core geographies
  11. 11. Country Projected Travel Increase 2008-2012 % Originating from Core Region (Source Markets) Singapore 26% 68% China 26% 58% Hong Kong 19% 62% Philippines 52% 16% Malaysia 61% 72% Thailand 32% 25% Indonesia 46% 45%
  12. 12. 30% Growth by 2012
  13. 13. 2 Expand user base Strategy
  14. 14. Leisure + Unmanaged Business
  15. 15. > S$ 4 B >6% Unmanaged Business Market Size CAGR 2008-2012
  16. 16. Partnerships White label VS. Branded
  17. 17. 3 Improve user experience Strategy
  18. 18. Enhance Create
  19. 19. Asia Pacific 1.52 B Mobile Opportunity 2008 19% CAGR
  20. 20. 1 Focus on core geographies 2 3 Expand user base Improve user experience Strategy
  21. 21. Measuring Success? <ul><li>Feasibility </li></ul><ul><li>Increase number of users </li></ul><ul><li>Spend responsibly </li></ul><ul><li>Increase profits </li></ul><ul><li>Increase long-term value </li></ul>
  22. 22. Implementation Plan Technology ▪ Marketing ▪ People
  23. 23. Technology
  24. 24. Search Engine Optimization <ul><li>SEO Paragraph </li></ul><ul><li>Site Map </li></ul><ul><li>Backlinks </li></ul>Increase website traffic
  25. 25. MyAsiatravel.com <ul><li>Recommendations </li></ul><ul><li>Dynamic Packaging </li></ul><ul><li>Loyalty Program </li></ul><ul><li>Localization </li></ul><ul><li>Social Features </li></ul>Improve user experience
  26. 26. <ul><li>Instant information </li></ul><ul><li>Instant purchasing </li></ul><ul><li>Access anytime </li></ul>Mobile Channel Increase accessibility and convenience
  27. 27. Summary Feasibility High Low High Low MyAsiatravel.com
  28. 28. Marketing
  29. 29. Objectives <ul><li>Enhance brand equity </li></ul><ul><li>Deliver value to core demographics </li></ul><ul><li>Gain competitive advantage </li></ul>
  30. 30. Asiatravel.com is losing visitor share
  31. 31. One-stop travel solution New positioning: Company One-stop Flights Inventory Instant Confirmation Business Travel Asiatravel.com + + + + - Agoda.com - - + + - Asiarooms.com - - + + -
  32. 32. Channels Online Offline 80% 20% Search engine marketing Banner ads Promotions Print Conventions Tourism bureaus Conversion Awareness
  33. 33. Expand Partnerships <ul><ul><li>Photo sharing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Destination sites </li></ul></ul>Travel Services Social Networks <ul><ul><li>QQ.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Facebook.com </li></ul></ul>
  34. 34. People
  35. 35. Maintain local sales force <ul><li>Merchant relationships </li></ul><ul><li>Local knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Support </li></ul>Local Offices Expand sales team knowledge <ul><li>Business traveler knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Business specific resources </li></ul>
  36. 36. <ul><li>Centralize non-sales </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Marketing </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Operations </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Realign regional SVPs </li></ul><ul><li>Create new positions </li></ul>Align people to maximize long term value Main Office <ul><li>Overall efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Best practice sharing </li></ul><ul><li>Potential cost savings </li></ul><ul><li>Implementation </li></ul>
  37. 37. Proposed Structure
  38. 38. Implementation Timeline <ul><ul><li>Search Engine Optimization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Launch MyAsiatravel.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Launch Mobile Channel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Launch Unmanaged Business Traveler Services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Launch New Marketing Message </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve Channel Marketing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Organization Realignment </li></ul></ul>0 1 2 3 4 2 years 1.5 years 1 year 6 m 3 years 2 years 6 m
  39. 39. Successful Strategy <ul><li>Feasibility </li></ul><ul><li>Increase number of users </li></ul><ul><li>Spend responsibly </li></ul><ul><li>Increase profitability </li></ul><ul><li>Long-term value </li></ul>
  40. 40. Financial Analysis
  41. 41. Financial Strength <ul><li>Strong cash reserves </li></ul><ul><li>Commitment to shareholders </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing profitability </li></ul>
  42. 42. * Assumptions: 5% terminal growth rate, 10.31% discount rate Increase market value S$ 30.4MM
  43. 43. Revenue Growth Key Assumption Significant slowdown in 2009-2010
  44. 44. Long-Term Profitability Key Assumption: Declining Gross Margins (2% Annually)
  45. 45. Leisure Remains Principal Segment
  46. 46. Product Investments
  47. 47. Significant Returns
  48. 48. Grow Cash Balance
  49. 49. Financial Summary <ul><li>Responsible spending </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Positive ROI investments paid back within 5 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing cash balances </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Increase profitability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>27% revenue growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Profits > S$10MM by 2012 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Long-term value </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Market value increases 56% </li></ul></ul></ul>
  50. 50. Conclusion
  51. 51. Core Regions User base User experience S$ 30.4MM Increase Value
  52. 52. Reinforcing system Referrals User base Site Traffic Sales Partners Profits Long term value
  53. 53. Successful Strategy <ul><li>Feasibility </li></ul><ul><li>Increase number of users </li></ul><ul><li>Spend responsibly </li></ul><ul><li>Increase profitability </li></ul><ul><li>Long term value </li></ul>
  54. 54. CEREBRATION 2009 Thank you Terima kasih
  55. 55. Appendix Strategic Implementation SWOT Analysis SEO Examples Environmental Analysis Considerations Transnational Matrix Recommendation Market Core Region Analysis Cost Cutting Measures Global Departures Financial Summary Online Booking Trends Sources Consulted Customer Segment Analysis Key Population Trends
  56. 56. SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses <ul><li>Strong merchant model </li></ul><ul><li>Brand recognition </li></ul><ul><li>Strong partners </li></ul><ul><li>Strong balance sheet </li></ul><ul><li>Established offices in 6 core geographies </li></ul><ul><li>Website less developed than competitors </li></ul><ul><li>Value proposition not clear </li></ul><ul><li>Brand not recognized outside region </li></ul>Opportunities Threats <ul><li>Mobile channel </li></ul><ul><li>Business travel segment </li></ul><ul><li>New partnerships </li></ul><ul><li>Evolving user needs </li></ul><ul><li>Global recession </li></ul><ul><li>Merchant model phasing out </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing competition </li></ul>
  57. 57. Environmental Analysis Demographic Trends Aging population while median age stays the same Macroeconomic Impacts Economic downturn and financial crisis Growing middle class seeking to travel Socio-Cultural Influences Increasing online usage Acceptance of e-commerce Political-Legal Pressures Overall political stability with uncertainty in Thailand and Indonesia Technological Developments Internet penetration Mobile penetration Global Trade Issues Fluctuating exchange rate
  58. 58. Transnational Matrix Low High Low High Global Integration Local Responsiveness Technology Operations Sales Marketing
  59. 59. Core Region Travel Analysis Country 2008 Forecasted Arrivals (mm) 2012 Forecasted Arrivals (mm) Projected Increase from 2008-2012 Source Markets Malaysia 24.01 38.77 61.33% 71.9% Philippines 3.55 5.00 40.80% 16.0% Singapore 11.00 13.90 26.30% 67.7% Indonesia 6.35 9.28 46.14% 45.0% Thailand 15.59 20.65 32.43% 25.4% Hong Kong 30.98 36.95 19.23% 61.5% China 141.86 179.09 26.20% 58.4% Total 233.34 303.64 30.12%
  60. 60. Global Departure Analysis <ul><li>Asia Pacific region has the highest level of growth </li></ul><ul><li>Asia Pacific will trail only Western Europe but the Asian market is less competitive </li></ul>
  61. 61. Current Online Travel Booking Trends Source: Thought leaders in Marketing Roundtable 2008 Report
  62. 62. Customer Segment Analysis Leisure Travel Needs Unmanaged Business Travel Needs Needs AST can address with current resources <ul><li>Online solutions to travel needs </li></ul><ul><li>“ One-stop shop” for flight and hotel needs </li></ul><ul><li>“ One-stop shop” for multiple services from visas to insurance </li></ul><ul><li>Need for more personalized travel advice and services </li></ul>Needs AST can address with future resources <ul><li>Personalized user experience- ability to interact online </li></ul><ul><li>Access any time anywhere </li></ul><ul><li>Efficiencies in travel planning and travel management </li></ul><ul><li>Support with additional resources for group / meeting / event related travel </li></ul>
  63. 63. Key Population Trends Asia Pacific Region’s mean age is increasing but at relatively slow rate. The 20-54 age cohorts are stable segments that should be targeted
  64. 64. SEO Examples SEO Paragraph: Sitemap:
  65. 65. Implementation Outsourcing Considerations In-house Outsource Pros <ul><li>Secure intellectual property rights </li></ul><ul><li>Creating a technology focused culture </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on core competencies </li></ul><ul><li>Lower cost </li></ul>Cons <ul><li>Cost to hire and train staff </li></ul><ul><li>Time to market </li></ul><ul><li>Need to manage outsourcing firm closely </li></ul>
  66. 66. Recommendation: Hybrid Strategy <ul><li>Create small in-house team that manages outsourcing activities </li></ul><ul><li>Use current IT resources for development of more critical, time-sensitive products </li></ul><ul><li>Outsourcing firm should create a content management system for AST to make changes/maintenance easier </li></ul>In-house Development Outsource Development Targeted recommendations Clean web interface Dynamic packaging Unmanaged business travel content Loyalty programs Savings calculator Localization Search engine optimization Contextual advertising Mobile information Affiliate marketing Social networking/ community Mobile booking & payment
  67. 67. Cost Cutting Measures <ul><li>Operations </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluate resource usage </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidate corporate functions </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on expansion in existing core geographies </li></ul><ul><li>Finance </li></ul><ul><li>Take on debt financing for financial benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Use derivative financial instruments to protect against foreign currency volatility </li></ul>Enhance Asiatravel.com’s Bottom Line <ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluate in terms of cost savings </li></ul><ul><li>Partner with Amadeus to incorporate eTravel Management </li></ul><ul><li>Outsource tech. enhancements </li></ul>
  68. 68. Financial Appendix Overview Financial Statement Highlights Cash Balance Grows Significantly Profit Growth Key Ratios Sources of Financing Revenue and Profit by Business Employee Salaries Online Leisure Revenue Growth Investments and Costs Results No New Investment Forecast Business Travel Opportunity Results Mobile Opportunity Adoption Rate Results Mobile Growth Long term growth forecasts Valuation Discount Rate Free Cash Flows Sensitivity Comparables Uncertainties Margin Analysis Drivers of Value Top Uncertainties Delaying Investments 1 Year Base Case Assumptions Income Statement Balance Sheet Assumptions Balance Sheet Statement of Cash Flows
  69. 69. Financial Statement Highlights
  70. 70. Cash Balance Grows Significantly ‘ 09 ‘ 10 ‘ 11 ‘ 12 Importance of maintaining strong cash reserves 1. Signal company strength in a tumultuous period 2. Maintain dividend to shareholders 3. Preserve resources to pursue growth 4. Protection against exogenous shocks
  71. 71. Profit Growth <ul><li>Slow profit growth for first two years attributed to world economic outlook </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid growth in 2011-2012 as investments start to pay off and economy rebounds </li></ul><ul><li>Short-term profit decrease is essential to gain long-term competitive advantage </li></ul>‘ 09 ‘ 10 ‘ 11 ‘ 12
  72. 72. Key Ratios <ul><li>Observations: </li></ul><ul><li>Decreasing profitability ratios expected over next two years </li></ul><ul><li>AST’s increasing financing via debt increases leverage but hardly enough to affect credit rating </li></ul><ul><li>Operational efficiency remains steady if not improving </li></ul>
  73. 73. Sources of Financing <ul><li>Cash Flow from Operations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cash Flow from Operations exceeds investments in all forecasts </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Debt Issue </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Very low leverage (0.08 D/E) only increases to 0.27 in forecasts. Should not greatly affect cost of debt. Issuing debt is recommended </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Equity Offerings </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Stock is undervalued </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Equity offerings not recommended in short run </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Viable source of financing in long run </li></ul></ul>
  74. 74. Revenue and Profit by Line of Business Implication: AST’s core business, online leisure, will continue to be the most profitable and should receive the primary focus
  75. 75. Employee Salaries
  76. 76. Online Leisure: Revenue Growth Revenue growth in 2007 and 2008 equaled 23.3% and 21.6% respectively With global downturn, cut growth by 25%-50% in 2009 and 10-25% in 2010 before returning to above-historical levels
  77. 77. Online Leisure: Investments and Costs
  78. 78. Online Leisure: Results <ul><ul><li>Based off a “no new investment” forecast where AST does not pursue any new investments beyond the scope of normal business </li></ul></ul>(Amounts in S$’000) 2009 2010 2011 2012 Revenues 97,063 114,146 142,683 178,354 Gross Profit 24,314 26,368 30,106 34,066 Amortized Investment Cost 888 1,551 1,653 1,241 Allocated expenses 15,711 17,128 20,172 21,152 Total Attributed After-Tax Profits 6,635 6,612 7,121 10,038 Profits above “No New Investment” Forecast (227) (74) 682 3,733 Total Investment 1,554 1788.5 388.5 388.5 ROI (15%) (4%) 176% 961%
  79. 79. Online Leisure: “No New Investment” Forecast <ul><ul><li>Key Assumptions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Revenue growth 90% of model value in 2009, 80% of model values thereafter (competitors reduce growth) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Declining gross margins (identical to model) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Salaries, etc. grow at 5% annually (identical to model) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Depreciation, Amortization, and Financing fixed at 2008 levels </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Other operating expenses between 7.5% and 8% of revenue </li></ul></ul>(Amounts in S$’000) 2009 2010 2011 2012 Revenues 95,932 109,439 131,326 157,592 Gross Profit 23,983 25,171 27,579 29,942 Allocated Expenses 16,004 17,396 20,092 22,611 Total After-Tax Profit 6,862 6,687 6,439 6,305
  80. 80. Business Travel Analysis: Opportunity
  81. 81. Business Travel Analysis: Results A lucrative line of business producing significant ROI (Amounts in S$’000) 2009 2010 2011 2012 Revenues 267 11,692 20,578 33,954 Gross Profit 67 2,689 4,321 6,451 Amortized Investment Cost 165 305 376 281 Allocated expenses 43 1,754 2,909 4,027 Total After-Tax Incremental Profits (121) 541 891 1,843 Total Investment 494 421 211 211 ROI (25%) 128% 422% 872%
  82. 82. Mobile Distribution: Opportunity
  83. 83. <ul><ul><li>Bass Diffusion Model used to estimate customer adoption of new mobile booking technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Input parameters based on historical averages </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Only 1 year, 2012, modeled (introduction of booking) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>>400,000 customers in 2012, ~3.5% of total available market </li></ul></ul>Mobile Distribution: Adoption Rate
  84. 84. Mobile Distribution: Results While not a driver a company value from 2009-2012, the mobile distribution channel represents a source of significant future growth for AST (Amounts in S$’000) 2010 2011 2012 Gross Profit 46 86 1,697 All Additional expenses 30 58 1,059 Total After-Tax Incremental Profits 14 24 549 Total Investment 262.5 752.5 402.5 ROI 5.2% 3.2% 136.3%
  85. 85. Mobile Drives Long Term Growth
  86. 86. Long-Term Growth Forecasts: 2012-2016
  87. 87. Valuation: Discount Rate Objective: Compute a reasonable return on equity, r e , at which to discount AST’s free cash flows * http://8percentpa.blogspot.com/2007/06/price-earnings-ratio-and-earnings-yield.html Parameter Value Method Risk-free rate (r f ) + 1.32% Yield on 5-year government bond 3/16/09 (matches investment horizon) Company beta (β) x 0.996 Regressed last 5 years of AST monthly returns vs. Straits Time Index (STI) returns Market risk premium (r m -r f ) = 4.00% Subtracting monthly 5-year government bond from market return yielded negative premium so outside source consulted* Return on equity (r e ) 5.31% Applied Return on equity (r e ) 10.31% Return on equity doubled because (1) it seems rather low (risk-free rate near historical lows) and (2) new investments bear risk – a higher discount rate accounts for such risk
  88. 88. Valuation: Free Cash Flows <ul><li>Observations </li></ul><ul><li>Earnings are primary source of free cash flow Increases in net working capital are primary use </li></ul><ul><li>Most of value in terminal cash flows. Projecting longer term increases accuracy </li></ul><ul><li>Terminal growth rate estimated as 5% (inflation + growth potential of mobile segment in particular) </li></ul>Base Case
  89. 89. Valuation: Sensitivity Market value is highly sensitive to both the growth and discount rates
  90. 90. Valuation: Comparables Objective: To avoid the discount rate problem, determine value using EV/EBITDA ratios of comparable firms <ul><li>Challenge: </li></ul><ul><li>Almost all Singapore comparables are private (ISINet) </li></ul><ul><li>Using 2009 (or 2008) EBITDA for AST does not reflect the changing nature of the business </li></ul>Conclusion : Apply a DCF valuation, despite its limitations
  91. 91. Valuation: Uncertainties Gross Margins drive value
  92. 92. Assuming Constant 25% Gross Margins Doubles Profits in 2012
  93. 93. Which Uncertainties Drive Value? Gross margins have largest effect on firm value. Business market penetration rate has second biggest effect Dedicating resources to capturing unmanaged business market increases firm value
  94. 94. The Top 20 Uncertainties
  95. 95. Delaying Investments 1 Year
  96. 96. Base Case: Key Income Assumptions <ul><li>Gross margins decrease 2% each year, from 25% in 2009 to 19% in 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>Affiliate marketing and contextual ad revenue equal 0.1% of online leisure revenue from 2010-2012 </li></ul><ul><li>Salary and benefit expenses grow 5% annually </li></ul><ul><li>Other operating expenses (including marketing) as a % of revenue equal 7.5%, 8.0%, 8.5%, and 7.5% in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 respectively </li></ul><ul><li>Finance costs (i.e. interest expenses) set at 10% of total debt balance </li></ul><ul><li>Depreciation equals 20% of fixed asset balance </li></ul><ul><li>Tax rate equals 14% (based on prior years) </li></ul>- -
  97. 97. Base Case: Income Statement - -
  98. 98. Base Case: Key Balance Sheet Assumptions Item Assumption (All amounts stated in $S‘000) Cash 12% of revenues Receivables 7% of revenues Inventory 6% of cost of sales Prepayments 7% of revenues Tangible Fixed Assets Grow 500 each year Intangible Assets Grow 2,500 in 2009, 1,000 in 2010, and 500 annually beyond in 2011 and 2012 Trade and Other Payables Benchmarked to cost of sales at past 3-year average Deferred Income and Taxation Benchmarked to revenues at past 3-year average Long-term Borrowings Grow 2,000 in 2009, 2,000 in 2010, and stay constant in 2011 and 2012 Shareholders Fund Plug value
  99. 99. Base Case: Balance Sheet - -
  100. 100. Base Case: Statement of Cash Flows - -
  101. 101. <ul><li>Asiatravel.com Annual Report 2007, 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Euromonitor: Travel and Tourism Industry Report, April 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Euromonitor International: Future Demographic - Asia Pacific, January 2006. </li></ul><ul><li>Euromonitor International Consumer Lifestyles reports for Singapore, Philippines, and Indonesia; </li></ul><ul><li>Euromonitor International: Tourism Flows Inbound - Philippines, 11/25/08. </li></ul><ul><li>Thought Leaders in Marketing Roundtable Report, HSMAI Asia Pacific 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Turner, Lindsay W. and Stephen F. Witt (2008), Asia Pacific Tourism Forecasts: 2008-2010, Thailand: PATA. </li></ul><ul><li>Business Monitor International Q4 Tourism Reports (Malaysia, China, Singapore, Indonesia, United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong, Thailand). </li></ul><ul><li>News@PATA weekly newsletter, 5 November 2008. URL: http://www.pata.org/patasite/index.php?id=1883 </li></ul><ul><li>Travelsmart-asia watch, Abacus International, 18 November 2008. URL: http://www.abacus.com.sg/trvlsmartasia/trvlsmartwatch/ViewItem.aspx?ID=139 </li></ul><ul><li>How to build backlinks. URL: http://www.webconfs.com/how-to-build-backlinks-article-16.php . </li></ul><ul><li>Knight, Kristina. “Compete: Targeted ads great for travel sites”. July 29, 2008. URL: http://www.bizreport.com/2008/07/compete_targeted_ads_great_for_travel_sites.html </li></ul><ul><li>Grossman, David. “Travel 2.0: Social networking takes a useful term”. 1/26/07. URL: http://www.usatoday.com/travel/columnist/grossman/2007-01-26-grossman_x.htm . </li></ul><ul><li>Hutchison Telecom Q3 2008 Key Performance Indicators: URL: http://www.htil.com/eng/ir/presentation/pre081112.pdf </li></ul><ul><li>SingTel Group news release, 12 November 2008. URL: http://home.singtel.com/news_centre/news_releases/2008_11_12.asp </li></ul><ul><li>Industry Research: Telecommunication Industry Issue. ISI Analytics: Thailand. 1Q 2009. </li></ul><ul><li>Asian Forecasts. Buddecomm Report. August 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile Phones in Asia-Pacific. Datamonitor. February 10 2009. </li></ul>Sources Consulted

×