The Ramifications of the Crisis:Revising Future ExpectationsTheo NotteboomITMMA - University of Antwerp and Antwerp Mariti...
Outline<br />Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />Towards a new hierarchy in the European container port system?<b...
1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />World trade and manufacturing output<br />Source: EU<br />
GDP growth (q-o-q) in EU<br />GDP growth (index) in EU<br />Source: EU<br />1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />
Industrial production - EU<br />Industrial production - world<br />Source: EU<br />1. Towards an economic recovery in Euro...
Private consumption in EU<br />Investments in capital goods in EU<br />Source: EU<br />1. Towards an economic recovery in ...
1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />Increased need for factoring in <br />uncertainty/risk in business strateg...
Outline<br />Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />Towards a new hierarchy in the European container port system?<b...
How serious is the throughput issue?The European case<br />The bubble effect?<br />
Container throughput development and various forecasts, Antwerp<br />Source: Notteboom<br />
Top 15 European container ports<br />= port gained places in ranking (2008-2009)<br />= port lost places in ranking (2008-...
Taking a medium-term view on traffic development: Winners and losers during the period 2006-2009 <br />THE MAIN WINNERS<br...
Med and UK succeeded in reversing recent decline in market share <br />
Changes in Container Traffic at Some Major European Ports, 2008-2009-Q1 2010<br />Growth differences mainly explained by:<...
End of capacity constraints in some ports
Major inter-port shifts in transhipment business
Russia effect</li></ul>Source: statistics individual port authorities<br />
Trade volumes per route to/from Europe: Mixed results<br />Inventory replenishment or an <br />underlying recovery in dema...
Revisiting transshipment in Europe<br />Hamburg<br />Rotterdam<br />Bremerhaven<br />Antwerp<br />Le Havre<br />Zeebrugge<...
Market shares of ports in the West-Med according to diversion distance from the main route <br />
The immediate hinterland as the backbone for port volumes<br />Containers: challenge of co-modality and cargo bundling on ...
The immediate hinterland as the backbone for port volumes<br />Harlingen<br />Groningen<br />Leeuwarden<br />Veendam<br />...
Gateway port<br />Multi-port gateway regions<br />1. Extended Rhine-Scheldt Delta<br />2. Helgoland Bay<br />3. UK SE Coas...
Keeping Track of the Big Picture: Emerging Global Maritime Freight Transport System<br />
Outline<br />Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />Towards a new hierarchy in the European container port system?<b...
The Double Squeeze on Ports and Maritime Shipping<br />Maritime Shipping<br />Overcapacity<br />New terminals coming onlin...
M&A activity in terminal operating industry<br />Expected net returns on investment grossly overrated on assumptions that:...
A more prudent approach to plot sizes of capacity extensions?<br />Deurganckdock<br />5.3 km quay wall, <br />326 ha, 44 G...
5.5m TEU, 2.3m TEU in 1st phase
Rotterdam: Maasvlakte I & II
Le Havre: Port 2000</li></li></ul><li>Rebalancing risk<br />Globalization and the growth of the shipping industry appear t...
The “Calm” after the Storm: A Paradigm Shift for Maritime Container Trade and Ports<br />
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  • TIME FRAME: 30 minutes.
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie eu rapporten in map Alfaport PortAcademy
  • Zie divhav2009
  • Zie docthfst 5
  • Zie divhav2009
  • Zie divhav2009
  • Zie presentatie Durban update
  • Zie iamemelbourne sheet
  • Cash problems among many companies.Fear for structural overcapacity in the market: Underutilization of terminals: on average only 60% utilization by 2013 based on the March 2009 forecasts, while the September 2008 still predicted 90%.Cancellation of or the delay in a number of capacity expansions plans.Overcapacity is expected to force down tariffs and undermine the ROI:Terminal business less interesting to financial firms.Potential difficulties for financing of large terminal projects.Renegotiation of existing concession agreements inevitable?
  • While the current context is prone to uncertainties, it can be anticipated that once the mal-investments caused by the housing bubble and its contamination of the global economy have been cleared by a deep recession, a new period of growth will result. The storm will abate, leading to a calmer period where future trends are easier to assess. The following interrelated points can provide a guideline:1) The global economy will be rebalanced under different fundamentals that are likely to be linked with lower growth rates.2) The emphasis appears to be shifting towards of a rationalization of supply chains. Growth prospects are being questioned, at least on the medium run, so supply chains will be modified to cope with these conditions.3) Globalization is likely to be more regional in character. Energy prices, in spite of the recent sharp correction, are much higher than they were a few years ago. Coupled with supply chain rationalization production and distribution may tend to stick more to regional trade agreements.4) In light of the above points, the setting of gateways / inland ports coupled with freight clusters will continue. The most successful clusters are likely to be the ones able to provide balanced cargo flows (imports and exports) and if cargo is very imbalanced, very productive added value activities.
  • The Path to the Crisis of 2008: Beware of Future Expectations Jean ...

    1. 1. The Ramifications of the Crisis:Revising Future ExpectationsTheo NotteboomITMMA - University of Antwerp and Antwerp Maritime AcademyJean-Paul RodrigueDepartment of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra UniversityTerminal Operators Conference - EuropeValencia (Spain), June 8-10 2010<br />
    2. 2. Outline<br />Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />Towards a new hierarchy in the European container port system?<br />Towards a paradigm shift? <br />
    3. 3. 1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />World trade and manufacturing output<br />Source: EU<br />
    4. 4. GDP growth (q-o-q) in EU<br />GDP growth (index) in EU<br />Source: EU<br />1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />
    5. 5. Industrial production - EU<br />Industrial production - world<br />Source: EU<br />1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />
    6. 6. Private consumption in EU<br />Investments in capital goods in EU<br />Source: EU<br />1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />
    7. 7. 1. Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />Increased need for factoring in <br />uncertainty/risk in business strategies<br />
    8. 8. Outline<br />Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />Towards a new hierarchy in the European container port system?<br />Towards a paradigm shift? <br />
    9. 9. How serious is the throughput issue?The European case<br />The bubble effect?<br />
    10. 10. Container throughput development and various forecasts, Antwerp<br />Source: Notteboom<br />
    11. 11. Top 15 European container ports<br />= port gained places in ranking (2008-2009)<br />= port lost places in ranking (2008-2009)<br />
    12. 12. Taking a medium-term view on traffic development: Winners and losers during the period 2006-2009 <br />THE MAIN WINNERS<br />THE MAIN LOSERS<br />Source: ITMMA – own compilation<br />
    13. 13. Med and UK succeeded in reversing recent decline in market share <br />
    14. 14. Changes in Container Traffic at Some Major European Ports, 2008-2009-Q1 2010<br />Growth differences mainly explained by:<br /><ul><li>Consolidation of volumes on trunk lines
    15. 15. End of capacity constraints in some ports
    16. 16. Major inter-port shifts in transhipment business
    17. 17. Russia effect</li></ul>Source: statistics individual port authorities<br />
    18. 18. Trade volumes per route to/from Europe: Mixed results<br />Inventory replenishment or an <br />underlying recovery in demand ?<br />Source: based on data EELA<br />
    19. 19. Revisiting transshipment in Europe<br />Hamburg<br />Rotterdam<br />Bremerhaven<br />Antwerp<br />Le Havre<br />Zeebrugge<br />Taranto<br />Barcelona<br />Cagliari<br />Valencia <br />Sines<br />Piraeus<br />Algeciras<br />Gioia Tauro<br />Malta<br />Tanger Med<br />
    20. 20. Market shares of ports in the West-Med according to diversion distance from the main route <br />
    21. 21.
    22. 22. The immediate hinterland as the backbone for port volumes<br />Containers: challenge of co-modality and cargo bundling on short distances<br />Containerized <br />cargo by road, <br />rail and barge <br />
    23. 23. The immediate hinterland as the backbone for port volumes<br />Harlingen<br />Groningen<br />Leeuwarden<br />Veendam<br />Drachten<br />Seaport in Extended Rhine-Scheldt Delta<br />Alkmaar<br />Meppel<br />Inland Container Terminal (barge or multimodal)<br />Zaandam<br />Beverwijk<br />Kampen<br />Almelo<br />Amsterdam<br />Hengelo<br />Growth region European<br />Distribution (outside seaport system)<br />Netherlands<br />Hillegom<br />Utrecht<br />Ede<br />Zutphen<br />ROTTERDAM<br />A. a/d Rijn<br />Logistics corridors<br />Valburg<br />Nijmegem<br />Gorinchem<br />Oss<br />Germany<br />Oosterhout<br />Emmerich<br />Den Bosch<br />Duisburg<br />Tilburg<br />Gennep<br />Zeeland Seaports<br />Moerdijk<br />Dortmund<br />Krefeld<br />Zeebrugge<br />ANTWERP<br />Helmond<br />Venlo<br />Duesseldorf<br />Deurne<br />Ostend<br />Neuss<br />Meerhout<br />Dunkirk<br />Dormagen<br />Born<br />Genk<br />Willebroek<br />Cologne<br />Ghent<br />Wielsbeke<br />Stein<br />Grimbergen<br />Bonn<br />Belgium<br />Brussels<br />Avelgem<br />Liège<br />Lille<br />Andernach<br />Valenciennes<br />Koblenz<br />France<br />Mertert<br />Lux<br />Competition but also synergy between regional ports<br />Increasing role of inland/dry ports<br />
    24. 24. Gateway port<br />Multi-port gateway regions<br />1. Extended Rhine-Scheldt Delta<br />2. Helgoland Bay<br />3. UK SE Coast<br />4. Spanish Med<br />5. Ligurian Range <br />6. Seine Estuary<br />7. Black Sea West<br />8. South Finland<br />9. Portugese Range<br />10. North Adriatic <br />11. Gdansk Bay<br />12. Kattegat/The Sound<br />Transhipment/interlining port <br />(transhipment incidence >75%)<br />Gateway port also handling<br />substantial transhipment flows<br />Multi-port gateway region<br />8<br />Main shipping route<br />12<br />11<br />2<br />1<br />3<br />Americas<br />West <br />Germany<br />South Poland/<br />Czech Republic/<br />Slovakia/Hungary<br />6<br />Bavaria <br />Alpine region<br />Americas<br />Northern <br />Italy<br />7<br />South <br />France <br />10<br />5<br />9<br />Madrid and <br />surroundings<br />4<br />Main shipping route<br />Middle East – Far East<br />Ports increasingly compete for more distant hinterlands <br />
    25. 25. Keeping Track of the Big Picture: Emerging Global Maritime Freight Transport System<br />
    26. 26. Outline<br />Towards an economic recovery in Europe?<br />Towards a new hierarchy in the European container port system?<br />Towards a paradigm shift? <br />
    27. 27. The Double Squeeze on Ports and Maritime Shipping<br />Maritime Shipping<br />Overcapacity<br />New terminals coming online<br />New ships coming online (+ cancellations)<br />Contestability for gateways<br />Contestability for hubs<br />Rebalancing<br />Supply<br />Demand<br />Port Operations<br />Lower profitability<br />Less pressures on terminal resources<br />Less financial appeal<br />
    28. 28. M&A activity in terminal operating industry<br />Expected net returns on investment grossly overrated on assumptions that: <br />container throughput figures would go through the ceiling<br />container handling facilities would be in short supply<br />prices would rise steeply. <br />Since 2008: no major terminal transactions<br />Max 8 to 10 times EBITBA<br />Shipping lines’ divestment in terminals?<br />
    29. 29. A more prudent approach to plot sizes of capacity extensions?<br />Deurganckdock<br />5.3 km quay wall, <br />326 ha, 44 GC <br />8m TEU<br /><ul><li>Rotterdam: Euromax
    30. 30. 5.5m TEU, 2.3m TEU in 1st phase
    31. 31. Rotterdam: Maasvlakte I & II
    32. 32. Le Havre: Port 2000</li></li></ul><li>Rebalancing risk<br />Globalization and the growth of the shipping industry appear to have skewed the perception of risk downward. <br />Source: Rodrigue, Notteboom and Pallis (2009)<br />
    33. 33. The “Calm” after the Storm: A Paradigm Shift for Maritime Container Trade and Ports<br />
    34. 34. The “Calm” after the Storm: A Paradigm Shift for Maritime Container Trade and Ports<br />
    35. 35. Will we get back to a ‘business as usual’ scenario?<br />No: the ‘business as usual’ practices between 2002 and 2008 were highly ‘unusual’.<br />Medium-term perspective (3-5 years): <br />Sustained pressure on terminal rates due to restructuring/consolidation of shipping services and memory effects in terminal overcapacity situation.<br />Actors will continue to show cautious in competitive bidding processes.<br />Long-term perspective (>5 years): <br />Strategic port sites remain scarce goods.<br />Terminals will regain status as interesting investment objects, but with a more realistic risk assessment. <br />
    36. 36. CONCLUSIONS<br />Mid-term problems to a ‘recently enlarged port sector’ with investors rediscovering risk<br />Provide opportunities:<br />to develop corrective actions as good days will be back.<br />to revisit growth expectations as trade growth is not exponential.<br />
    37. 37. Topics for Discussion<br />How solid are the growth fundamentals for the shipping industry?<br />Which sectors and regions are the most vulnerable?<br />Who is likely to default next?<br />Signs of divesture?<br />What could be the “new normal”?<br />
    38. 38. Thank you for your attention !<br />theo.notteboom@ua.ac.be<br />jean-paul.rodrigue@hofstra.edu<br />

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