Calculate the forecast
Exponential smoothing: F1 =15.0 a=0.4
Exponential smothing: F1 = 10.0 a-0.7
Exponential smothing with trend adjustment: F1=11.0 a=0.4, T1=3.0 B=0.6
Exponential smoothing with trend adjusted : F1=13.0, a=0.8. T1= 2.0,
B=0.4periodactual1122153174145156177208?
Solution
Forecast Ft+1 = alpha * Dt + (1 - alpha)Ft
1) alpha = 0.4 and F1 = 15
2) alpha = 0.7 and F1 = 10
3) F1=11.0 a=0.4, T1=3.0 B=0.6
Forecast Ft+1 = alpha * Dt + (1 - alpha)Ft
Trend Factor Tt + 1 = B(Ft+1 - Ft) + (1 - B)Tt
Total forecast = adjusted trend forecast + unadjusted forecast
4) F1=13.0, a=0.8. T1= 2.0, B=0.4
Forecast Ft+1 = alpha * Dt + (1 - alpha)Ft
Trend Factor Tt + 1 = B(Ft+1 - Ft) + (1 - B)Tt
Total forecast = adjusted trend forecast + unadjusted forecastperiodactualforecastForecast for
Alpha = 0.41121521513.831764146.85155.661767206.888.
