FEEDING A HOT AND HUNGRY PLANET<br />Tim Searchinger<br />(Princeton University, German Marshall Fund of the U.S.<br />tse...
Ag’s Contribution to World Greenhouse Gases ~ 30%<br />Nitrous oxide –  fertilizer, livestock deposits, biomass burning<br...
- 16% of world malnourished<br />- 1/3 of children in developing world stunted<br />- 30 million babies born impaired due ...
Undernourished People and Recent Changes<br />Source: FAO. 2009. The State of Food Insecurity In the World, 2008<br />
Agriculture Mitigation Potential at $100/t(IPPC 2007 Mitigation Report) <br />
The Challenge of Soil Carbon Gains<br />No Till<br />Depth <br />Baker et al., Agriculture Ecosystems and Env. 118:1-5 (20...
Biochar?<br />
Conventional approach<br />But . . . <br />Biofuels & Greenhouse Gases<br />Land grows plants (carbon) anyway<br />		*  fo...
Large Bioenergy Potential Studies<br />Most potential arable land – IPCC 2007 chapter 8 - 1.3billion hectares and/or<br />...
Unused Cropland is Mostly Wetter Savannah, Woodlots and Forest in Latin America and Africa<br />
Other Uses of Land? <br />More cropland and pasture for food –200-500 million hectares by 2050<br />Terrestrial carbon sin...
IPCC Baselines – Mission Accomplished? IPCC SRES ScenariosPredicted Emissions from Land Use Change Gigatons  C<br />
Can We Avoid Land Use Change for Food?<br />Croplands<br />Agriculture occupies 35% of ice free surface<br />Grazing lands...
No-policy scenario<br />Carbon Dioxide Emissions – Reilly (MIT) – Impact of Ozone<br />Note:  Emissions from land use chan...
Impacts on Yields of Climate Change Itself<br />Change in average maximum temperature ( oC), 2000–2050<br />top is CSIRO; ...
Areas of Water Stress (IIASA)<br />
Optimism: Yields Gaps<br />also:<br />* Much food waste<br />* Biotechnology<br /><ul><li>Livestock      intensification o...
FAO’s latest estimate ~120 million hectares additional cropland by 2050</li></ul>Courtesy of Pedro Sanchez<br />
Natural Forest  (Melillo, Gurgel, et al. 2008)<br />Natural Forest<br />
Natural Forest (“Deforestation” Scenario)<br />Natural Forest<br />
Land Lessons<br />Land is limited<br />MORE CARBON NOT DIFFERENT CARBON<br />Understand land/input tradeoffs<br />
Important question:  where isthe underutilized “other” land<br />Carbon content<br />Outputs<br />Biodiversity<br />Owners...
Peatland Restoration – 1.3 Gt/y (IPCC 2007 Mitigation)<br />
70% of rice straw in Punjab burned  <br />Punia, Current Science 94:1185-1190 (2008)<br />
Predicted 2000-2010 Pasture & Cropland Expansion <br />in Latin America <br />Wassenaar et al., Global Env. Change 17:86-1...
Sources of Nitrous Oxide<br />Adapted from Davidson, Nature Geoscience2:659-662 (2009)<br />
Steinfeld et al. 2007, Livestock’s Long Shadow (FAO)<br />
World Grazing Land<br />Haberl et al., PNAS 104:12942-12947<br />Contrast FAO Grazing Land NPP World - 1047<br />
Rangeland Thoughts<br />Possible Pursuit:  Productivity enhancement plus forest regeneration<br />
Better UnderstandingChallenges of Lifecycle Analysis for Livestock(source TheunVellinga, Wageninen University)<br />Reason...
Doberman, Cassman, Ser. C Life Sciences 48:745-758 (2005)<br />
Deep Placed Urea Supergranules<br />IFDC<br />17-33% yield gains, decreases urea by 33%<br />
and now a brief advertisement . . . <br />
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Feeding A Hot And Hungry Planet Tim Searchinger

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A presentation by Timothy D Searchinger of Princeton University at the opening session of the inaugural Global Research Alliance meeting in Wellington, New Zealand.

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Feeding A Hot And Hungry Planet Tim Searchinger

  1. 1. FEEDING A HOT AND HUNGRY PLANET<br />Tim Searchinger<br />(Princeton University, German Marshall Fund of the U.S.<br />tsearchi@princeton.edu<br />Courtesy IIASA<br />
  2. 2. Ag’s Contribution to World Greenhouse Gases ~ 30%<br />Nitrous oxide – fertilizer, livestock deposits, biomass burning<br />Methane – livestock (enteric), cows, rice, manure, biomass burning<br />Energy – farm machinery, fertilizer, irrigation pumps<br />13 million hectares/yr gross deforestation <br />N20 and NH4 to grow 60% by 2030<br />(IPCC 2007; Bellarby2008 , in CO2 eq.)<br />
  3. 3. - 16% of world malnourished<br />- 1/3 of children in developing world stunted<br />- 30 million babies born impaired due to lack of natal nutrition <br />- 5 million children die annually from causes related to lack of nutrition<br />
  4. 4.
  5. 5. Undernourished People and Recent Changes<br />Source: FAO. 2009. The State of Food Insecurity In the World, 2008<br />
  6. 6. Agriculture Mitigation Potential at $100/t(IPPC 2007 Mitigation Report) <br />
  7. 7. The Challenge of Soil Carbon Gains<br />No Till<br />Depth <br />Baker et al., Agriculture Ecosystems and Env. 118:1-5 (2007); <br />Blanco-Canqui & Lal, SSSAJ 72:693-701 (2008)<br />Nitrous Oxide<br />Africa<br />Are we actually losing soil carbon? <br />UK, Midwest<br />New Zealand<br />
  8. 8. Biochar?<br />
  9. 9. Conventional approach<br />But . . . <br />Biofuels & Greenhouse Gases<br />Land grows plants (carbon) anyway<br /> * forest<br /> * food<br />Only ADDITIONAL plant growth helps<br />
  10. 10. Large Bioenergy Potential Studies<br />Most potential arable land – IPCC 2007 chapter 8 - 1.3billion hectares and/or<br />All forest growth in excess of harvest (Smeets 2008)and/or<br />All “abandoned” cropland (Hoodwijk (2004) and/or<br />Hundreds of millions of hectares of “grazing” or “other” land – savannah (Fischer 2001; Smith 2007)<br />Recounts existing forest, forest re-growth, net terrestrial carbon sink, land counted for grazing<br />
  11. 11. Unused Cropland is Mostly Wetter Savannah, Woodlots and Forest in Latin America and Africa<br />
  12. 12. Other Uses of Land? <br />More cropland and pasture for food –200-500 million hectares by 2050<br />Terrestrial carbon sink – 9.5 GT CO2/yr<br />Avoided deforestation potential – 9 Gt/year<br />Afforestation mitigation potential – 4 Gt/year<br />Restore peatlands – 1.3 gigatons/year<br />All from IPCC 2007 Mitigation Report, chapters 8 & 9<br />
  13. 13. IPCC Baselines – Mission Accomplished? IPCC SRES ScenariosPredicted Emissions from Land Use Change Gigatons C<br />
  14. 14. Can We Avoid Land Use Change for Food?<br />Croplands<br />Agriculture occupies 35% of ice free surface<br />Grazing lands<br />Foley J A et al. PNAS 2007;104:12585-12586<br />©2007 by National Academy of Sciences<br />
  15. 15.
  16. 16. No-policy scenario<br />Carbon Dioxide Emissions – Reilly (MIT) – Impact of Ozone<br />Note: Emissions from land use change are those from projected changes. Continuing uptake from forest regrowth from pre-2000 land use change and changed uptake (due to CO2/climate) on undisturbed land is not shown.<br />
  17. 17. Impacts on Yields of Climate Change Itself<br />Change in average maximum temperature ( oC), 2000–2050<br />top is CSIRO; bottom is NCAR<br />Nelson et al., Climate Change Impact on Agriculture (IFPRI 2009)<br />With no crop fertilization effect , by 2050:<br />–Rice yields decline by 14 – 18% in developing countries<br />- Irrigated wheat declines 28-34%<br />
  18. 18. Areas of Water Stress (IIASA)<br />
  19. 19. Optimism: Yields Gaps<br />also:<br />* Much food waste<br />* Biotechnology<br /><ul><li>Livestock intensification opportunities
  20. 20. FAO’s latest estimate ~120 million hectares additional cropland by 2050</li></ul>Courtesy of Pedro Sanchez<br />
  21. 21. Natural Forest (Melillo, Gurgel, et al. 2008)<br />Natural Forest<br />
  22. 22. Natural Forest (“Deforestation” Scenario)<br />Natural Forest<br />
  23. 23. Land Lessons<br />Land is limited<br />MORE CARBON NOT DIFFERENT CARBON<br />Understand land/input tradeoffs<br />
  24. 24. Important question: where isthe underutilized “other” land<br />Carbon content<br />Outputs<br />Biodiversity<br />Ownership<br />Barriers to use<br />
  25. 25. Peatland Restoration – 1.3 Gt/y (IPCC 2007 Mitigation)<br />
  26. 26. 70% of rice straw in Punjab burned <br />Punia, Current Science 94:1185-1190 (2008)<br />
  27. 27. Predicted 2000-2010 Pasture & Cropland Expansion <br />in Latin America <br />Wassenaar et al., Global Env. Change 17:86-104 (2007)<br />Two thirds of net agricultural expansion is pasture<br />
  28. 28. Sources of Nitrous Oxide<br />Adapted from Davidson, Nature Geoscience2:659-662 (2009)<br />
  29. 29. Steinfeld et al. 2007, Livestock’s Long Shadow (FAO)<br />
  30. 30. World Grazing Land<br />Haberl et al., PNAS 104:12942-12947<br />Contrast FAO Grazing Land NPP World - 1047<br />
  31. 31. Rangeland Thoughts<br />Possible Pursuit: Productivity enhancement plus forest regeneration<br />
  32. 32. Better UnderstandingChallenges of Lifecycle Analysis for Livestock(source TheunVellinga, Wageninen University)<br />Reasonable data available<br />Kilograms of meat, milk, slaughtered animals<br />Total numbers of animals<br />Total fertilizer input on country level<br />No systematic data available<br />herd demography<br />feed use<br />pasture quality<br />feed production <br />and manure management<br />
  33. 33. Doberman, Cassman, Ser. C Life Sciences 48:745-758 (2005)<br />
  34. 34. Deep Placed Urea Supergranules<br />IFDC<br />17-33% yield gains, decreases urea by 33%<br />
  35. 35.
  36. 36.
  37. 37.
  38. 38. and now a brief advertisement . . . <br />
  39. 39. Final Thoughts<br />“All” is beautiful <br />Seek copper bullets<br />Don’t forget the “D” of R&D<br />Practical/strategic approach<br />Coordinating teams<br />Scrutinize the teams<br />Constantly question & improve numbers & make real field assessments<br />Mix technology, policy, development & basic research<br />Give rangeland the respect it deserves<br />Immediate Policies That Can’t Wait<br />Integrate REDD/food production<br />Develop NAMA guidance<br />

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