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Technology Sample


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Technology Sample

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Technology Sample

  1. 1. Technology Assessment Superfactory Excellence Program™
  2. 2. Outline <ul><li>Management of Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Sociotechnical Change </li></ul><ul><li>Technology Planning </li></ul><ul><li>Technology Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Managing Forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Methods and Issues </li></ul><ul><li>Lifecycles </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring </li></ul><ul><li>Tools for Trending </li></ul><ul><li>Extrapolating Technological Trends </li></ul><ul><li>Expert Opinion </li></ul>
  3. 3. Result of Technology’s Increasing Significance <ul><li>Technology assessment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>originally driven by concern regarding the negative effects of technology on the environment and society. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>now much more encompassing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technology forecasting </li></ul><ul><ul><li>assessment requires anticipation, therefore a need for technology forecasting. </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Product Life Cycle Commercial launch Years from Launch Innovation Growth Maturity Decline Profit Sales Volume Maximum Profit Maximum Sales Volume Withdrawn from market Sales Revenue (x1,000,000) Profit Revenue (x100,000) 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
  5. 5. Impact/Technology Assessment <ul><li>It is the systematic study of the effects on society, that may occur when a technology is introduced, extended, or modified, with emphasis on the impacts that are unintended, indirect, or delayed. (Joseph Coates, 1976) </li></ul><ul><li>It should be viewed by technology managers as professional obligation and social responsibility </li></ul><ul><li>It’s results form the “big picture” concerns that should shape the context of technological planning </li></ul>
  6. 6. Forecasting-Technology Management Relationship <ul><li>Forecasting is intended to bring information to the technology management process </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Predicts possible technological changes that might affect corporate goals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provides useful information to decision makers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The shape and format of forecasting are determined by </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Targeted audience (nation, organization, business unit, group of units…) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Audience goals </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Stages of Technological Innovation <ul><li>Stage 3: Verification </li></ul><ul><ul><li>laboratory experiment that confirms the validity of the proposed theory or design concept </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Stage 4: Laboratory Demonstration </li></ul><ul><ul><li>first primitive model of the technology concept in a useful form </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Stage 5: Field Trial </li></ul><ul><ul><li>full-scale approach or field trial that ultimately becomes the prototype or pilot-plant </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Competitive Technology Lifecycle Critical Dimension Time Ex: Vacuum tubes v. transistors : Sail v. steamships Traditional technology Emergent technology
  9. 9. Fisher-Pry Model <ul><li>Substitution model </li></ul><ul><li>Symmetrical around the 50% penetration point </li></ul><ul><li>y(t) = 1/(1 + e -b(t-a) ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>y(t) = fraction of the potential market served by the new technology at time t </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>a = the time the new technology reaches 50% of the total market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>b = rate of adoption </li></ul></ul>
  10. 10. Technological Description/Foresight <ul><li>Technology description is a subset of technology foresight </li></ul><ul><li>Technology foresight involves predicting and preparing for the opportunities and challenges that new technologies offer </li></ul><ul><li>Noted authors Dr. van Wyk & Dr. Jonathan Litton </li></ul>
  11. 11. Choosing Experts Opinion Capture Technique <ul><li>Six factors are to consider in choosing a technique to </li></ul><ul><li>capture experts opinion (Nelms and Porter, 1985): </li></ul><ul><li>Logistics: resources largely determine the method </li></ul><ul><li>Feedback: minimizing delay between successive feedback is desirable </li></ul><ul><li>Communication medium: is a function of access to experts, resources, and time </li></ul>