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Ecosystem services trade-offs and
synergies of rubber agroforestry under
uncertainty
Grace B. Villamor*
and
Utkur Djanibek...
Introduction: Land use change and carbon emissions
1973-1993

1993-2005
Annual net change in above
ground carbon

 Indone...
Reconc
ile?
© Tom Newman

www.rhino-ifr.org

www.mubi.com

Wunder,
2005

3
I. Land use dynamics modeling: agent based model
Assumptions/features:
-Human agents decision
making is based on
heuristic...
I. Results: agent based land use model
Indicators
 

 Scenarios 
BAU

Subsidies

PES (USD

PES (USD

0.50)

1)

Biodiversi...
Uncertainty
• Variability in yields and prices of land use output: CV 0.08 to 0.5
• Uncertainty in revenues of land uses
7...
Methods & Data
II. Models
- Monte Carlo for yields and Brownian motion for prices (100 simulations)
- Multi-period model (...
Results: Land use activities
• PES would affect land use activities
• If PES is given both to rubber monoculture and agrof...
Results: Labor demand
• Labor availability is important constraint for farm land use diversification
• High demand for lab...
Results: Farm profits
• Increase in PES levels to the highest simulated level would substantially
increase farm profits an...
Results: Variability of farm profits
• Farm profits would vary
• PES would reduce profit variability

11
Conclusions
• Implementing high C payments for various perennial land
uses would substantially increase the farm incomes,
...
Thank you for your attention!!!
gracev@uni-bonn.de
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Session 6.2 ecosystem services trade offs and synergies of rubber agroforestry

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Session 6.2 ecosystem services trade offs and synergies of rubber agroforestry

  1. 1. Ecosystem services trade-offs and synergies of rubber agroforestry under uncertainty Grace B. Villamor* and Utkur Djanibekov Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn, Germany *World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Bogor, Indonesia
  2. 2. Introduction: Land use change and carbon emissions 1973-1993 1993-2005 Annual net change in above ground carbon  Indonesia ranks 2nd in the world for tropical deforestation  Implications: carbon dynamics, biodiversity, water balance, soil erosion, and local livelihood 2 Villamor et al. 2013. Regional Environmental Change
  3. 3. Reconc ile? © Tom Newman www.rhino-ifr.org www.mubi.com Wunder, 2005 3
  4. 4. I. Land use dynamics modeling: agent based model Assumptions/features: -Human agents decision making is based on heuristic rules -Following a bounded rational approach Villamor 2012; Villamor et al. 2013a; Villamor 2013b; Villamor et al. under review, Envi. Modeling & Software 4
  5. 5. I. Results: agent based land use model Indicators    Scenarios  BAU Subsidies PES (USD PES (USD 0.50) 1) Biodiversity   - Species richness 75% 86% 95% 96%   - Species loss 24% 15% 5% 4% 0.5 0.33 0.2 0.1   - Rice field (kg/ha/yr) 426 ± 69 398 ± 81 224 ± 33 227 ± 32   - Rubber agroforest (kg/ha/yr) 224 ± 37 378 ± 81 314 ± 69 320 ± 51 640 ± 220 1,120 ± 104 763 ± 20 791 ± 30 0 0 16% 32% Carbon emissions (Mg/ha/yr) Agronomic yield   - Monoculture rubber (kg/ha/yr) PES-Adopters Villamor 2013b; Villamor et al. under review, Envi. Modeling & Software 5
  6. 6. Uncertainty • Variability in yields and prices of land use output: CV 0.08 to 0.5 • Uncertainty in revenues of land uses 700 %   , %   , 120 90 300 s c r p i   e g n a h C s d l y i   e g n a h C 60 500 30 0 2000 2002 Rice Objectives 2004 2006 Years Palm oil 2008 2010 100 -100 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Years Rubber Rice Palm oil Rubber Source: Indexmundi • Investigate the uncertainty in returns of land uses and accordingly their management practices that would increase farm incomes • Analyze PES and trade-offs under land use revenue uncertainty 6
  7. 7. Methods & Data II. Models - Monte Carlo for yields and Brownian motion for prices (100 simulations) - Multi-period model (30 years) with two risk aversion levels for farmers(strongly, hardly) and three discount rates (10, 20, 28%) PES scenarios Carbon: 0, 5, 20, 50 and 100 USD t-1 Biodiversity : 0, 20, 80, 300 and 1,000 USD ha -1 for agroforest Policy options/scenarios (1) PES for perennial land uses (monoculture and agroforest) (2) PES only for agroforest In total 15,000 different scenarios for each PES policy option Data sources 95 farm field surveys in 2010 Ministry of Agriculture of Indonesia & secondary literature 7
  8. 8. Results: Land use activities • PES would affect land use activities • If PES is given both to rubber monoculture and agroforest then the area of agroforest may further reduce 8
  9. 9. Results: Labor demand • Labor availability is important constraint for farm land use diversification • High demand for labor in oil palm and rubber monoculture plantations 9
  10. 10. Results: Farm profits • Increase in PES levels to the highest simulated level would substantially increase farm profits and would be one of the main sources of income 10
  11. 11. Results: Variability of farm profits • Farm profits would vary • PES would reduce profit variability 11
  12. 12. Conclusions • Implementing high C payments for various perennial land uses would substantially increase the farm incomes, employment at farming activities • While PES only for agroforest would increase its area and hence can be an option for biodiversity conservation • However, in the scenario of PES for agroforest the labor demand at farm would be lower in contrast to scenario of PES for perennial land uses • The PES would allow farmers receiving more stable and less varying farm incomes, which would reduce the repercussion of farm production risks 12
  13. 13. Thank you for your attention!!! gracev@uni-bonn.de

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