Luedeling long term trials for climate change research
Long-term trials for climate change research and adaptation Eike Luedeling December 2011
Climate change Rising temperatures Potential changes in rainfall Higher variability and more extreme eventsNot all of these everywhere, but some of these somewhere…
Climate change Climate change Adaptation MitigationImpacts Resilience Land use system
Climate change Climate change Adaptation Mitigation Impacts Resilience Land use systemLong-term trials are needed for quantifying impacts and mitigation potentials and for finding robust adaptation strategies
Impacts of climate change Long-term trials, combined with reliable weather records are essential for understanding system response to weatherThis understanding allows projecting climate change impactsFor analyzing climate change impacts, all long-term trials should include weather monitoring
Impacts of climate changeProjecting climate change impacts requires thorough understanding of systems and robust modelsModels must be calibrated over wide range of climatic conditions Long-term trials allow using long-term weather formodel building, understanding processes well enough for reliable projections
Impacts of climate changeLong-term trials allow using advanced statistical tools for quantifying system responses E.g. PLS regression No data = no analysis Luedeling and Gassner, revision under review. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.
Carbon sequestrationMitigate climate change and pay farmers for C seq. C Seq. potential? C stocks Agroforestry Agroforestry Agroforestry Maize Maize Maize t1 t2 t3
Carbon sequestrationMitigate climate change and pay farmers for C seq. C Seq. potential? C Seq. potential? C stocks Agroforestry Agroforestry Agroforestry Maize Maize Maize t1 t2 t3 Lower sequestration; less cash for farmers Long-term trials needed to expose real potential
Carbon sequestrationOne-off site comparisons may overestimate C storage potential (hazard for C-selling farmers/projects) Only long-term trials can show real potential for carbon sequestrationProvide information on long-term fate of sequestered carbon, in soil and biomass Does sequestered carbon survive extreme events? Data from long-term trials needed for modeling C sequestration potential ex ante
Variability and extreme events Impacts of extreme events (on non-obvious systemcharacteristics) can only be evaluated reliably, where long-term trials exist Important as baseline, and for ‘putting things in context’ (are extreme events really so extreme?)Long-term monitoring can trace system performance through variability cycles and extreme events, but they must be there before events happen
Adaptation and resilienceInclusion of wide range of crops / land use options allows screening for resilience / risks / adaptive potential Long-term trials allow evaluation for realistic variability scenarios One-off trials only expose adaptation to one particular manifestation of weatherDevelop models based on multi-year performancethat allow testing adaptation options with models
Adaptation and resilience Crop-risk profile Climate modelProbability (%) GHG emissions Time horizon Crop yield (% of max) Luedeling 2011. ‘Adaptation to Climate Change and Insurance’ project. Report to GIZ.
Trial sites as learning locations Strategic placement of long-term trial sites Avoid ‘disappearing climates’Maximize transferability of results to other sites, now and in the futureClimate analogue analysis can help determine most suitable locations
Climate analogue analysisPresent climate Future projected climate Mean of monthly temperatures ( C)
Climate analogue analysis Climate similarity map South Sudan Ethiopia C.A.R. Somalia Uganda Kenya Congo D.R.C. Climate Rw. Target Bu. analogue site location Tanzania AngolaEuclidean distance between projected climate at target site and current climate in the region
Climate analogue analysis Climate similarity map South Sudan Ethiopia C.A.R. Somalia Uganda Kenya Congo D.R.C. Climate Rw. Target Bu. analogue site location Tanzania AngolaLong-term trials at analogue site can provide information on potential of land use options for adaptation to one particular climate scenario
Climate analogue analysis Climate analogue map for multiple climate scenarios Climate projection C.A.R. South Sudan Ethiopia Uganda Kenya Congo D.R.C. Rw. Bu. TanzaniaLong-term trials at multiple analogue locations allow thorough testing of crops for climate change adaptation Such trials allow making robust, climate-change proof empirical models.
Conclusions Long-term trials are needed for quantitativelyinforming impact projections, for assessing mitigation potentials and for identifying robust adaptation options. Trial sites should be strategically placed to provideuseful information for as many locations as possible, considering projected climate change.
Thanks for your attention! firstname.lastname@example.org December 2011