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Leigh Winowiecki FTA Side event

  1. Welcome!
  2. Outline of the session: 12:45- 12:55 - Who is in the room/ which networks 12:55- 13:00 - Guiding questions for the session 13:00- 13:10 - Introduction to data driven networks by Robert Nasi 13:10-13:40 - Speed talks, which show example analysis of data from ongoing data-driven networks, highlighting the sentinel landscapes and the LSMS datasets among others (7 mins each). 13:40-14:15 - Roundtable discussion led by FAO and DfID on the guiding questions. Additional objectives on the session: 1) Identify additional partners/collaborations for these initiatives 2) Receive feedback from participants on the use/utility of these networks/analysis in terms of interventions, policy, etc
  3. Guiding Questions/ Topics for Discussion: • What are data-driven networks and what is their role in forest monitoring/interventions/ etc. • To what extent can this network be used to monitor progress on the Sustainable Development Goals? • Integration of structured and unstructured (e.g. crowd- sourced) data. • Processing and analysis of large or complex datasets. • What are the drivers of deforestation and land degradation? —> Social-ecological interactions. • How can we increase the utility of these networks to inform investments/interventions?
  4. Pressing Social-Ecological Challenges TRADE AND ENVIRONMENT REVIEW 2013 MAKE AGRICULTURE TRULY SUSTAINABLE NOW FOR FOOD SECURITY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE U N I T E D N A T I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T EMBARGO The contents of this Report must not be quoted or summarized in the print, broadcast or electronic media before 18 September 2013, 17:00 hours GMT Norbert Henninger Mathilde Snel Experiences with the Development and Use of Poverty Maps where poor ? are the World Resources Institute 10 G Street, NE Washington, DC 20002 USA www.wri.org UNEP/GRID-Arendal Service Box 706 4808 Arendal Norway www.grida.no Worl d R e s o u rce s I n s t i t u t e UNEP G R I D A r e n d a l change occurred naturally and Earth’s regu- latory capacity maintained the conditions that enabled human development. Regular temperatures, freshwater availability and biogeochemical flows all stayed within a rela- tively narrow range. Now, largely because of a rapidly growing reliance on fossil fuels and humans, the Holocene is expected to continue for at least several thousands of years7 . Planetary boundaries To meet the challenge of maintaining the Holocene state, we propose a framework based on ‘planetary boundaries’. These Figure 1 | Beyond the boundary. The inner green shading represents the proposed safe operating space for nine planetary systems. The red wedges represent an estimate of the current position for each variable. The boundaries in three systems (rate of biodiversity loss, climate change and human interference with the nitrogen cycle), have already been exceeded. Atmospheric Biodiversityloss Changeinlanduse Global Phosphoru s Nitrogen (biogeochemical Stratospheric Ocean acidifi cation Climate change Chem ical pollution (notye t quantified) aerosolloading(notyetquantified) ozonedepletion freshwateruse flowboundary) cycle cycle the rule. Many subsystems of Earth react in a nonlinear, often abrupt, way, and are par- ticularly sensitive around threshold levels of certain key variables. If these thresholds are crossed, then important subsystems, such as a monsoon system, could shift into a new state, often with deleterious or potentially even disastrous consequences for humans8,9 . Most of these thresholds can be defined by a critical value for one or more control vari- ables, such as carbon dioxide concentration. Not all processes or subsystems on Earth have well-defined thresholds, although human actions that undermine the resilience of such processes or subsystems — for example, land and water degradation — can increase the risk that thresholds will also be crossed in other processes, such as the climate system. We have tried to identify the Earth-system processes and associated thresholds which, if crossed, could generate unacceptable envi- ronmental change. We have found nine such processes for which we believe it is neces- sary to define planetary boundaries: climate change; rate of biodiversity loss (terrestrial and marine); interference with the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles; stratospheric ozone depletion; ocean acidification; global fresh- water use; change in land use; chemical pol- lution; and atmospheric aerosol loading (see Fig. 1 and Table). In general, planetary boundaries are values for control variables that are either at a ‘safe’ distance from thresholds — for processes with evidence of threshold behaviour — or at dangerous levels — for processes without 472 472-475 Opinion Planetary Boundaries MH AU.indd 472472-475 Opinion Planetary Boundaries MH AU.indd 472 18/9/09 11:12:3918/9/09 11:12:39 The State of Food Insecurity in the World The multiple dimensions of food security 2013 REVIEW Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People H. Charles J. Godfray,1 * John R. Beddington,2 Ian R. Crute,3 Lawrence Haddad,4 David Lawrence,5 James F. Muir,6 Jules Pretty,7 Sherman Robinson,8 Sandy M. Thomas,9 Camilla Toulmin10 Continuing population and consumption growth will mean that the global demand for food will increase for at least another 40 years. Growing competition for land, water, and energy, in addition to the overexploitation of fisheries, will affect our ability to produce food, as will the urgent requirement to reduce the impact of the food system on the environment. The effects of climate change are a further threat. But the world can produce more food and can ensure that it is used more efficiently and during the 18th- and 19th-century Industrial and Agricultural Revolutions and the 20th-century Green Revolution. Increases in production will have an important part to play, but they will be constrained as never before by the finite resources provided by Earth’s lands, oceans, and atmo- sphere (10). Patterns in global food prices are indicators of trends in the availability of food, at least for those who can afford it and have access to world mar- kets. Over the past century, gross food prices have generally fallen, leveling off in the past three dec- ades but punctuated by price spikes such as that caused by the 1970s oil crisis. In mid-2008, there was an unexpected rapid rise in food prices, the cause of which is still being debated, that subsided
  5. Pressing Social-Ecological Challenges TRADE AND ENVIRONMENT REVIEW 2013 MAKE AGRICULTURE TRULY SUSTAINABLE NOW FOR FOOD SECURITY IN A CHANGING CLIMATE U N I T E D N A T I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T EMBARGO The contents of this Report must not be quoted or summarized in the print, broadcast or electronic media before 18 September 2013, 17:00 hours GMT Norbert Henninger Mathilde Snel Experiences with the Development and Use of Poverty Maps where poor ? are the World Resources Institute 10 G Street, NE Washington, DC 20002 USA www.wri.org UNEP/GRID-Arendal Service Box 706 4808 Arendal Norway www.grida.no Worl d R e s o u rce s I n s t i t u t e UNEP G R I D A r e n d a l change occurred naturally and Earth’s regu- latory capacity maintained the conditions that enabled human development. Regular temperatures, freshwater availability and biogeochemical flows all stayed within a rela- tively narrow range. Now, largely because of a rapidly growing reliance on fossil fuels and humans, the Holocene is expected to continue for at least several thousands of years7 . Planetary boundaries To meet the challenge of maintaining the Holocene state, we propose a framework based on ‘planetary boundaries’. These Figure 1 | Beyond the boundary. The inner green shading represents the proposed safe operating space for nine planetary systems. The red wedges represent an estimate of the current position for each variable. The boundaries in three systems (rate of biodiversity loss, climate change and human interference with the nitrogen cycle), have already been exceeded. Atmospheric Biodiversityloss Changeinlanduse Global Phosphoru s Nitrogen (biogeochemical Stratospheric Ocean acidifi cation Climate change Chem ical pollution (notye t quantified) aerosolloading(notyetquantified) ozonedepletion freshwateruse flowboundary) cycle cycle the rule. Many subsystems of Earth react in a nonlinear, often abrupt, way, and are par- ticularly sensitive around threshold levels of certain key variables. If these thresholds are crossed, then important subsystems, such as a monsoon system, could shift into a new state, often with deleterious or potentially even disastrous consequences for humans8,9 . Most of these thresholds can be defined by a critical value for one or more control vari- ables, such as carbon dioxide concentration. Not all processes or subsystems on Earth have well-defined thresholds, although human actions that undermine the resilience of such processes or subsystems — for example, land and water degradation — can increase the risk that thresholds will also be crossed in other processes, such as the climate system. We have tried to identify the Earth-system processes and associated thresholds which, if crossed, could generate unacceptable envi- ronmental change. We have found nine such processes for which we believe it is neces- sary to define planetary boundaries: climate change; rate of biodiversity loss (terrestrial and marine); interference with the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles; stratospheric ozone depletion; ocean acidification; global fresh- water use; change in land use; chemical pol- lution; and atmospheric aerosol loading (see Fig. 1 and Table). In general, planetary boundaries are values for control variables that are either at a ‘safe’ distance from thresholds — for processes with evidence of threshold behaviour — or at dangerous levels — for processes without 472 472-475 Opinion Planetary Boundaries MH AU.indd 472472-475 Opinion Planetary Boundaries MH AU.indd 472 18/9/09 11:12:3918/9/09 11:12:39 The State of Food Insecurity in the World The multiple dimensions of food security 2013 REVIEW Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People H. Charles J. Godfray,1 * John R. Beddington,2 Ian R. Crute,3 Lawrence Haddad,4 David Lawrence,5 James F. Muir,6 Jules Pretty,7 Sherman Robinson,8 Sandy M. Thomas,9 Camilla Toulmin10 Continuing population and consumption growth will mean that the global demand for food will increase for at least another 40 years. Growing competition for land, water, and energy, in addition to the overexploitation of fisheries, will affect our ability to produce food, as will the urgent requirement to reduce the impact of the food system on the environment. The effects of climate change are a further threat. But the world can produce more food and can ensure that it is used more efficiently and during the 18th- and 19th-century Industrial and Agricultural Revolutions and the 20th-century Green Revolution. Increases in production will have an important part to play, but they will be constrained as never before by the finite resources provided by Earth’s lands, oceans, and atmo- sphere (10). Patterns in global food prices are indicators of trends in the availability of food, at least for those who can afford it and have access to world mar- kets. Over the past century, gross food prices have generally fallen, leveling off in the past three dec- ades but punctuated by price spikes such as that caused by the 1970s oil crisis. In mid-2008, there was an unexpected rapid rise in food prices, the cause of which is still being debated, that subsided Calls for Interdisciplinary & Systematic Approaches
  6. 1 Sentinel Landscapes 2014 Sentinel Landscapes RESEARCH PROGRAM ON Forests, Trees and Agroforestry Edited by: Tor-G. Vågen, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) Leigh A. Winowiecki, International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Assessing social-ecological indicators of land health across landscapes Leigh Winowiecki, Tor-Gunnar Vågen, Anja Gassner, Rhett Harrison, Brian Chiputwa, David Harris, all landscape coordinators and data collection teams
 l.a.winowiecki@cgiar.org
  7. Ten Sentinel Landscapes (SL) in the Global Tropics
  8. Example Research Questions - SL Does a variation in tree cover/ quality affect any of the four system level outcomes? reduction in poverty, increased global food security, improved nutrition, better management of natural resources What explains spatial and temporal variation of tree cover? What is the relationship between tree density and diversity and land health status
  9. Sentinel Landscapes Social-Ecological Frameworks • Integrated Analysis (http://www1.cifor.org/sentinel-landscapes/ home.html) • IFRI surveys (http://www.ifriresearch.net) • Household surveys • Land health surveys landscapeportal.org • Institutional Mapping
  10. Land Degradation Surveillance Framework (LDSF) Tor-G.Vågen (World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)) LeighWinowiecki , LulsegedTamene Desta (International Centre forTropical Agriculture (CIAT)) Jerome E.Tondoh (World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF)) v4 - 2013 the Land Degradation Surveillance Framework LDSF Field Guide
  11. 0" 100" 200" 300" 400" 500" 600" 700" Bushland" Cropland" Forest" Grassland" Other" Shrubland" Thicket" Wooded"grassland" Woodland" Vegetation Structure- LDSF data 2547 Plots
  12. TreeDensityincultivatedand non-cultivatedplots
  13. Assessments of Land and Soil Health: Erosion Risk across Burkina Faso/Ghana - change over time
  14. Co-location of HH and Land Health Surveys Example from Burkina Faso
  15. Co-location of HH and Land Health Surveys Example from Indonesia: Merangin
  16. Potential for Agroforestry: Tree Density in Cultivated (1) and Non-cultivated (0): Indonesia
  17. Livelihood Strategies: Indonesia SL Borneo/Sumatra: Similar livelihood strategies, but very different land sizes > differences in intensification potential Off-farm only Off and On-farm On-farm only • High variation in rural livelihood strategies within and across landscapes • High variation in the % of the site that is cultivated
  18. In East Africa, farms with lower SOC values and higher erosion prevalence rely more on off-farm income on average. Linking Food Deficient Months with Land Health Indicators
  19. Thank you! Moving Forward • Global analysis of the key drivers of land/soil health across landscapes • Linking social-ecological metrics
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