Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services under the New Normal of Climate Change


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Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services under the New Normal of Climate Change

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  • Weatherpredictionsbythe 2020s in a hot spot -  Alauca, SE of Tegucigalpa,  El Paraíso departmentnear NI border,Nicaragua. Thissitereflects a commonpattern of changesexpected in themajority of maize and beanproducingareas of Central AmericaFor2020: 36 mm less rain (828 mm current)– increase in mean temp of 1.1 ° C, maxtempsincrease from33 to 35 ° C – Coldestnightsincreasefrom 16.2 to 16.6 ° C For2050: 72 mm less rain  (-10%)– mean T increase of 2.3°C, hottestdaysincreaseto 35.6°C (+ 2.6°C), coldestnights are 8.2°C (+ 2°C). Beans require night temperatures below 18° C in ordertoflower and reproduce (produce beans)Thebluebars show precip. willbelower in thefirst 4 months of theyear, the more pronounceddryseasontypical of theregiond.. No significantchnages in May, thefirstplantingseason, but June isimportantforestablishment and earlygrowth of maize. Itpredictsperiods of extended droughts (longercaniculas) withseriousrisksforcropgrowth in June and July, threateningthemaingrowingseasonformaize (primera) thatends in Sept.Forthesecondgrowingseason (postrera) thatisthemostimportantbeangrowingseason, less rain ispredicted at planting in September. Whenthisiscombinedwithwaterdeficitsduringgrainestablishmentformaizedoesnot bode wellforbasicgraincrops, especially in areaswithsandysoilsIn Oct and Novthereisincreasedrisk of flooding (hurricaneseason) similar towhatweexperienced in 2011 withseverelosses in agproduction and infrastructuredamage in CA. Waterdeficits are compoundedbythe mean and maximumtempincreases. Highertempsresult in greaterevapo-transplossesfromplantscausingsoilwaterdeficits. Thehighernighttemps, (> 18 ° C) and droughtconditionshavesignificanteffectsonbiomassproduction and reproductivestages of bothmaize and beans. Summary – wewillsee mean temperatureincreases ofapproximately 1°C by 2020 y 2+°C by 2050, withincreases in min and maxtemps and a growingwaterdeficitduetolessprecip. And greaterevapotranspir. (Weusedcurretnclimate data and teh DSSAT modeltosimulatefuturecropproduction.  
  • Adaptation spots: Thesewillsuffers 25-49% yieldreductions in beansormaizeundercurrentproductionpracticesforamize and beans. Throughmodificationstotechnicalpracticesforagriculturegearedtoadaptation, some of theseareaswillbewinners in climatechange. Followingmap shows beanareas.Hot Spots: Predictedyieldlosses of greaterthan 50% bythe 2020s thatincidactethiscropisnoteconomically viable and new subsistencestrategies are needed..Pressure Spots: places with favorable conditionsforbean) production in thefutureonthefollowingmap. (Studyalsomappedmaizeproductions) Thesesites are forestedzones, protectedareas and becomecriticalforprotectionbynational,regionaldecisionmakerswithstrong role for NRM EAS. These spots werenotsharedbytheresearchteamwithfarmersduringfieldwork topreventinappropriate use of theinformation.  
  • Thismap shows a dry (droughty) channelfrom N. NI thru central HN of red hot spots, currentlythemostimportantbeanproductionsareas of CA forfornational use and export (SV & US nichemarkets). CC impact, beanswill no longerbe viable in theseareas. EAS support - diversificationout of beanstolegumesthat are drought/heatresistantor agro-forestry, forexample.Adaptation spots – yellow, thisis a hugeareathatwillrequire EAS adaptationsupportforcontinuedproduction, withimplicationsforfoodprices in urbanareas and socio-politicalimplications. EAS adaptationForbeans – egtreewindbreaks, conservationagriculturewithdispersedtreesforshade in maize-beancompanionplantingto reduce in-fieldtemperatures, increasefertility, waterretention. Pressure spots- green. Beanproductionwouldincreasehere, butmany are forested & pastexperienceimpliestheseareascouldfaceseveredeforestationwithinthenextdecadedueto CC impacts, popul. pressure, landtenureissues. Needtobeprotectedfromincursionbyagriculture. NRM EAS role- maximizelivelihoodopportunitiesvia CBNRM and social forestry, ensurepolicy / regulatoryenvironmentforprotection. VALUE OF TRAFFIC LIGHTS TO EAS, govments, policy, donors, internationalcommunity: Categories can beassignedtoproductionareasforeachmajorcrop. Allows EAS, decisionmakers, farmersto reduce theuncertainty of climatechange and reduce risks. The traffic light mapping system applies not only to specific cropping systems, but can also be used to map different land use types for policy, planning. EAS for NRM could use traffic light maps to show predicted impact of alternative land use options.
  • Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services under the New Normal of Climate Change

    1. 1. Agriculture Extension andAdvisory Services under theNew Normal of Climate ChangeBrent M. SimpsonMichigan State UniversityDeputy Dir. Modernizing Extensionand Advisory Services (MEAS) ProjectWorld Agroforestry CenterNairobi, Kenya9 May 2013
    2. 2. Major Themes Covered Context The New Normal of Climate Change Important Concepts & Perspectives Current Practices Best Prospects
    3. 3. Context - World Demand for CerealsWorld Bank: 100percent increase incereal production by2050;FAO: 70 percentincrease in cerealproduction by 2050.USAID: 60-70 percentIncrease in cerealproduction by 2050*A 60 – 70 % increase is equivalent to the addition ofthe total global cereal production in 1979/1985.
    4. 4. Context – Agricultural Land
    5. 5. Context – Closing the Yield GapMaizeWheatRiceSource: Mueller, et al.(2012). Nature 490: 254-57.
    6. 6. Context – Closing the Yield GapSource: Mueller, et al.(2012). Nature 490: 254-57.Maize
    7. 7. Context – Agricultural Input UsageSource: Hatfield and Prueger, 2004.
    8. 8. Context – Agriculture & Water UsageAgriculture uses70 – 80 percent offresh water.
    9. 9. Context – Change in Cereal Yields
    10. 10. Agriculture – Big Picture
    11. 11. Context – Energy UsageAgriculture uses approximately 12 percent oftotal energy
    12. 12. Context – Energy Prices• Direct energy costs of fuel and fertilizers account for roughly28% of the crop budget in industrialized agriculture;• Transportation costs contribute 40-50% to final food costs.
    13. 13. Context – Food Prices
    14. 14. Context – Food & Energy Prices
    15. 15. Context – Food Prices & Social TensionsFigure 1. Major outbreaks of rioting in England (red lines) correlate with average priceof wheat between 1780 and 1822. (Johnson, 2006).
    16. 16. Context – Food Prices & Social TensionsSource: Yagi, et al., 2011. New England ComplexSystems Institute
    17. 17. Climate Change:TrendsDisruptionThe New Normal
    18. 18. The New Normal
    19. 19. 398 ppmApril, 2013The New Normal350 ppm
    20. 20. The New Normal
    21. 21. The New Normal
    22. 22. Temperature trends: 1976 - 2000New Normal – Trends
    23. 23. ARGO floats have allowed accurate measurement of ocean heat gain since 2005. Earth is gainingenergy at a rate 0.6 W/m2, which is 20 times greater than the rate of human energy use. Thatenergy is equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day, 365 days per year.New Normal – Trends(Hansen, J. (2012). Mobilizing Science for Sustainable Development. Columbia Univ. NY, NY)
    24. 24. Heat storage in upper 2000 meters of ocean during 2003-2008 based on ARGO data.Data source: von Schuckmann et al. J. Geophys. Res. 114, C09007, 2009, doi:10.1029/2008JC005237.New Normal – Trends
    25. 25. (Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K., 2010: Global surface temperature change, Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004.)New Normal – Trends
    26. 26. New Normal – Trends(Crawford et al., 2012. MSU/FSG)
    27. 27. Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass MeasurementsGreenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice SheetSource: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009. (from Hanson, 2012)New Normal – Trends
    28. 28. Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era ( Normal – Trends
    29. 29. New Normal – Trends
    30. 30. New Normal – TrendsYear1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Meanwindspeed(m/s)>5m/s(day)15202530354045Y = -0.02161X + 45.275(R2= 0.94, p < 0.001)wind speedwindy daysY = -0.8022X + 1620.66(R2= 0.95, p < 0.001)East Asia Monsoon
    31. 31. New Normal – Trends
    32. 32. New Normal – Trends
    33. 33. New Normal – TrendsShift in Rainy Seasons:Avg. Daily Precipitation, Monduli, TZ 1935-2005
    34. 34. Temperature trends(in standarddeviations) formaize, wheat, riceand soy producingareas 1980 – 08Precipitation trends(in standarddeviations) formaize, wheat, riceand soy producingareas 1980 – 08(Source: Lobell et al., 2011)New Normal – Trends
    35. 35. Adapted from Easterling and Apps, 2005, in Holdren, 2008Crop yields in tropics start dropping at local ∆T ≥ 1-1.5°COverall, higher temps impact cereal production negatively.*Empirical evidence for rice, maize andsoybean yields show an 11-17 percentdecline with a 1 C increase in nighttimetemperatures (Lobell and Asner, 2003;Peng, 2004).Agriculture under the New Normal
    36. 36. Climate Change:TrendsDisruptionThe New Normal
    37. 37. New Normal – Disruption
    38. 38. New Normal – Disruption
    39. 39. New Normal – Disruption
    40. 40. New Normal – DisruptionAfrica Region
    41. 41. *it is projected thatby 2100 averagetemperatures willexceed currentmaximums in areassuch as W. Africa.New Normal – Disruption
    42. 42. New Normal – Disruption
    43. 43. New Normal – Disruption
    44. 44. • Climate change…– Complex & non-linear– Linkages & feedback loops– Tipping points & inertia– Very long lastingThe New Normal -- Summary
    45. 45. Greenhouse GasesTemperature IncreasesSeasonalityDaytime highsMelting land/sea iceIncreased atmosphericmoistureContinental/sub-ContinentalmonsoonNighttime highsFloweringPollinatorsPestsPhoto-sensitivityPlant maturationGrain fillSterilizationRespirationIncreased Frequency &Severity; out of seasonRainfall PatternsSea level riseInundation/SalinizationLoss of irrigation waterAgriculture under New Normal -- Summary
    46. 46. Important Concepts & PerspectivesRisk, Vulnerability, ResiliencyLocating, Scaling, Phasing and Pairing of Interventions Spatially appropriate for the need/opportunity (plot vs landscape) Temporal phasing to maximize benefits during window of opportunity Pairing technical and infrastructure investments with those strengtheningsocial capacity to match the needs/opportunitiesSystems Thinking Responding to and anticipating linkages between system components Applying broad principles that achieve multiple objectives Looking for multiple wins and no-regret strategiesTechnology Transfer Lessons from the past, and from other places• Practices from areas that are already drier/wetter, hotter, more riskprone (this will buy time for research to address anticipated needs)Innate Adaptive Capacities Relying on farmer’s abilities to adapt new tools to their local context• When to apply new practices/tools
    47. 47. Agricultural Extension and Advisory Services:MitigationAdaptationVulnerability & ResiliencyAgriculture under the New Normal
    48. 48. Agriculture isresponsible for up toone-third of all GHGemissions -- the veryact of feedingourselves is a majorpart of the problem.Bynecessity, extensionand advisoryservices will need tobecome involved inmitigation efforts.Agriculture -- Mitigation
    49. 49. There are approximately 1.8 billion small-holders managing 22.2 millionsq. km of the earth’s surface that have tremendous potential insequestering carbon in soils and woody biomass.Agriculture -- Mitigation12.5 billion treeshave been planted
    50. 50. Agricultural Extension and Advisory Services:MitigationAdaptationVulnerability & ResiliencyAgriculture under the New Normal
    51. 51. Agriculture -- Adaptation
    52. 52. Agriculture -- AdaptationHow did farmers’ adapt?-changed location of where crops wereplanted;-acquired new varieties of existing crops;-adopted or expanded cultivation of newcrops;-changed land use*EAS did not respond – the assumption wasthat things would return to “normal.”
    53. 53. Agricultural Extension and Advisory Services:MitigationAdaptationVulnerability & ResiliencyAgriculture under the New Normal
    54. 54. 1998 Hurricane Mitch & Honduras• 1998: 200-yr. hurricane• 180 mph winds• 1270 mm (50 in.) rain• HN - 22,000 deaths• HN -500,000 lost homes• CA -- economic losses of US$7billion• Agricultural losses-$2.3b• HN-32% farmers total crop losses• HN -10,000 ha – topsoil strippedAgriculture – Vulnerability & Resiliency
    55. 55. Post-event analysis (1)• Conservation agriculture plots (permanentveg. cover, rotations), SWC - contourhedges, vetiver, rock barriers, etc.– 58-99% less damage than conventional– 28-38% more topsoil– 2-3 times less surface erosion• Gullies, landslides above – same damage toconservation and conventional plotsAgriculture – Vulnerability & Resiliency
    56. 56. Post-event analysis (2)• Increased demand, adoption for NRM extension• Lessons:– EAS needs to support and seek behavior change atHH, plot and watershed management levels– Crisis as a catalyst for changeAgriculture – Vulnerability & Resiliency
    57. 57. Predicted temperature & precipitation changes by 2020, HondurasCurrent Practices
    58. 58. Methodology: Map production losses, 2020s & 2050s58o Adaptation Spots:25-50% yield losses of maize, beanso Focus on adaptation of production systemso Hot Spots: > 50% yield losseso Maize-beans, no longer an option. Transitionout of current livelihoods.o Pressure Spots: > 25% yield gainso High risk of agricultural incursion anddeforestation
    59. 59. Managing uncertainty: hot spots for bean production
    60. 60. ECOCROP MODELEstimates of bean production areas,current & future
    61. 61. Range of Coffee Berry Borer (with 2C)
    62. 62. Best Prospects/Recommendations (1)• Establish close working relations with researchers and researchprograms: risk identification & likely profile of impacts Identify location and geographic extent of different threats/opportunities likely timing of impact manifestation assess vulnerabilities and resiliencies of human populations & natural resourcesystems in target areas for different risks
    63. 63. Best Prospects/Recommendations (2)• Seek interventions that capitalize on multi-win, no regret options: Technologies that improve well-being (productive/profitable/secure) andsimultaneously assist mitigation/adaptation/resiliencies Address both technical and social organizational requirements needed to reducevulnerability and enhance resiliency Identify potential market and non-market incentives for farmers and otherstakeholders
    64. 64. • Enhance technology transfer capabilities: Aggressively develop/refine new technical and social management options establish national platforms for networking and exchange of experience participate in regional fora; become skilled at prospecting cross-regional andglobal resources streamline procedures for technology release Facilitate adaptive experimentation by farmer groupsBest Prospects/Recommendations (3)
    65. 65. • Identify different ICT applications for different target audiences: Forecasting and early warning systems for policy-makers weather information for farmers warning systems for at risk populations, floods for exampleBest Prospects/Recommendations (4)
    66. 66. • Upgrade pre-service education and in-service training programs: climate change dynamics a broad systems orientation on issues of scale, multi-benefits and biophysicalrelations technical competencies in areas relevant to adaptation, mitigation and thestrengthening local resiliencies Learn to communicate the essential character of climate change to farmersBest Prospects/Recommendations (5)
    67. 67. • Conduct organizational reviews on core roles and responsibilities: identify and remove programmatic barriers capitalize on potential operational synergies between separate EAS programs(e.g., crops, forestry, livestock, etc.) bring coordination and coherency to public and donor funded EAS efforts help orientate private sector interests to emerging climate change challenges andopportunitiesBest Prospects/Recommendations (6)
    68. 68. • Balance policies and investments: scales that matters harmonize conflicting policies plan for building-up accompanying EAS capacities (starting with investments ineducation and training programs)Best Prospects/Recommendations (7)
    69. 69. This presentation was given by:Brent M. SimpsonMichigan State Universityon behalf of the Modernizing Extension and AdvisoryServices (MEAS) Project
    70. 70. Terms of Use:© Michigan State University and the MEAS project.This work is licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.Users are free:• to Share — to copy, distribute and transmit the work• to Remix — to adapt the workUnder the following conditions:• Attribution — Users must attribute the work to the author(s)/institution(but not in any way that suggests that the authors/ institution endorse the user or theuser’s use of the work).
    71. 71. Disclaimer:This presentation was made possible by the generous support ofthe American people through the United States Agency forInternational Development, USAID. The contents are theresponsibility of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect theviews of USAID or the United States