Griest Data Mining

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Griest Data Mining

  1. 1. How common is West Nile Virus and when is it a threat to equines?<br />By Allison Griest<br />
  2. 2. How common is West Nile Virus and when is it a threat to equines?<br />Horses are used both professionally and recreationally.<br />If West Nile Virus is a threat to horses’ existence, humans as the horse owners have a responsibility to protect horses from the virus, no matter where they live.<br />This presentation is catered toward horse owners in Texas<br />North East Independent School District.<br />http://www.neisd.net/elmlang/images/j0189633.jpg.<br />Viewed 02/21/10.<br />
  3. 3. History of West Nile Virus<br /><ul><li>West Nile Virus (WNV) was first diagnosed in the United States in 1999.
  4. 4. West Nile Virus is transmitted through the bite of infected mosquitoes.
  5. 5. Mosquitoes become infected when they feed on infected birds.
  6. 6. The virus multiplies in the horse’s blood system, crosses the blood-brain barrier, and infects the brain.</li></li></ul><li>History of West Nile Virus<br /><ul><li>The virus has been found in all 48 of the Continental United States.
  7. 7. The virus has also been found in Africa, western Asia, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean regions of Europe.</li></ul>Mosquito-pictures.com. <br />http://www.mosquito-pictures.com/mosquito_pictures.htm.<br />02/24/10.<br />
  8. 8. History of West Nile Virus<br /><ul><li>According to the Center for Disease Control, the virus interferes with the normal central nervous system functioning and causes inflammation of the brain.</li></ul>Center for Disease Control.<br />http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/westnile/qa/wnv_horses.htm.<br />02/23/10.<br />
  9. 9. About West Nile Virus<br /><ul><li> WNV has an incubation period of 3 to 15 days.
  10. 10. Horse-to-horse transmission of the virus is unlikely because horses do not have significant amounts of the virus circulating in their blood.
  11. 11. Clinical signs of a WNV infection include but are not limited to:
  12. 12. Muscle twitching
  13. 13. Tremors
  14. 14. Difficulty rising
  15. 15. Convulsions
  16. 16. Partial paralysis
  17. 17. A droopy lip
  18. 18. Teeth grinding</li></li></ul><li>Frequency of West Nile Virus<br /><ul><li>The following maps illustrate the decrease in the number of WNV infections from 2002 to 2009.
  19. 19. Notice the deep red states on the 2002 maps. States colored deep red have 800 or more reported cases of WNV.</li></ul>2009<br />2002<br />United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.<br />http://www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/nahss/equine/wnv/wnv_distribution_maps.htm.<br />02/22/10.<br />United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.<br />http://www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/nahss/equine/wnv/wnv_distribution_maps.htm.<br />02/22/10.<br />
  20. 20. Frequency of West Nile Virus<br /><ul><li>The number of WNV infections has significantly decreased since 2002.
  21. 21. However, when WNV appeared in New York in 1999, it didn’t take long for it to quickly spread throughout the Continental United States.
  22. 22. The maps on the following slide illustrate the great increase in WNV cases between 1999 and 2002.</li></li></ul><li>Frequency of West Nile Virus<br />In 1999, New York was the only state to report WNV infections. There were 25 cases.<br />In 2002, there were 15,257 reported cases of WNV.<br />Note that Texas had the most cases: 1,699.<br />United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.<br />http://www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/nahss/equine/wnv/wnv_distribution_maps.htm.<br />02/22/10.<br />United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.<br />http://www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/nahss/equine/wnv/wnv_distribution_maps.htm.<br />02/22/10.<br />
  23. 23. Frequency of West Nile Virus<br /><ul><li>In 2009 Texas only had 18 cases of WNV.
  24. 24. Washington had the most cases, with 72. Horses are often traded over the Canadian border. Another data mining question might investigate the reason why Washington has so many WNV cases.</li></ul>2009<br />United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.<br />http://www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/nahss/equine/wnv/wnv_distribution_maps.htm.<br />02/22/10.<br />
  25. 25. Frequency of West Nile Virus<br /><ul><li>This chart from the United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service shows the cumulative number of equine cases in the state of Texas in 2009.
  26. 26. Note the second column in the graph: West Nile Virus Cases.
  27. 27. The majority of the cases in Texas appear to occur in the fall months.</li></ul>United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.<br />http://nsu.aphis.usda.gov/nahss_web/arbovirus_county_level.faces?STATE=TX.<br />02/22/10.<br />
  28. 28. Equine WNV Cases in Texas in 2009<br />This Excel file shows the total of West Nile Virus cases reported in Texas in 2009 and includes the month of earliest detection of the virus.<br />
  29. 29. Equine WNV Cases in Texas in 2009<br /><ul><li>This pie chart was generated from the Excel file shown on the previous slide.
  30. 30. 50% of WNV cases occurred in the month of October.
  31. 31. 94% of WNV cases occurred in the fall months of August, September, and October.
  32. 32. As shown in the chart on the previous slide, there were a total of 18 WNV cases documented in Texas in 2009.</li></li></ul><li>Equine WNV Cases in Texas in 2009<br /><ul><li>By analyzing the data from the current year, one can say that October is the month equines in Texas are at the most risk of being bitten by an infected mosquito and getting West Nile Virus.
  33. 33. However, many horses travel across several states for breeding, showing, and trading purposes, so it is also important to know the months that an equine is at the most risk of being bitten by an infected mosquito throughout the Continental United States.
  34. 34. The following slides explain the data mining used to create an Excel spreadsheet that shows the number of WNV cases reported each month for all states.</li></li></ul><li>WNV Data Mining<br /><ul><li>I referenced the United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service’s website to find out how many cases of WNV are reported each month in the Continental United States.
  35. 35. The site was most recently updated December 9, 2009. http://nsu.aphis.usda.gov/nahss_web/arbovirus_summary.faces
  36. 36. Only 36 states have reported data.</li></ul>United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.<br />http://nsu.aphis.usda.gov/nahss_web/arbovirus_county_level.faces?STATE=TX.<br />02/22/10.<br />
  37. 37. WNV Data Mining<br /><ul><li>Each state has a chart showing the number of reported cases of WNV.
  38. 38. For reference, here is a screen shot of the cumulative number of equine cases for Alabama.
  39. 39. As noted previously in this presentation, the second column is of interest.
  40. 40. Each chart lists the date of earliest detection of WNV in a county.</li></ul>United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.<br />http://nsu.aphis.usda.gov/nahss_web/arbovirus_county_level.faces?STATE=TX.<br />02/22/10.<br />
  41. 41. WNV Data Mining<br /><ul><li>I logged the total number of cases per month in an Excel spreadsheet.
  42. 42. The chart does not give a total per month, so first I had to log the data by visiting each state’s spreadsheet.
  43. 43. Because of the chance of human error, I could total the number of cases I had logged in the monthly columns and compare it to the chart showing all state information. That chart includes a total number of cases per state for the selected year.</li></ul>United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.<br />http://nsu.aphis.usda.gov/nahss_web/arbovirus_county_level.faces?STATE=TX.<br />02/22/10.<br />
  44. 44. WNV Data Mining<br /><ul><li>Continuing to use Alabama as an example, the previous chart shows that Alabama had 11 reported cases of WNV in 2009.
  45. 45. I took the information shown in the chart for Alabama and placed it in an Excel spreadsheet to show how many cases were reported each month.</li></ul>United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.<br />http://nsu.aphis.usda.gov/nahss_web/arbovirus_county_level.faces?STATE=TX.<br />02/22/10.<br />
  46. 46. WNV Data Mining<br /><ul><li>A note about the charts from the United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service:
  47. 47. The additional columns show the number of Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE) cases and Western Equine Encephalitis (WEE) cases.
  48. 48. There are common equine vaccinations for both of these viruses, but the vaccines and viruses are unrelated to West Nile Virus. Vaccinations against EEE and WEE provide no protection against West Nile Virus.
  49. 49. The states that are listed in my Excel spreadsheet that have zero reported cases of WNV are listed in the state list because there have been cases of EEE or WEE reported in one of the state’s counties.</li></li></ul><li>WNV Data Mining<br /><ul><li>This Excel file shows the number of reported cases per month of WNV in 36 states.
  50. 50. The source of information was the United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.</li></li></ul><li>WNV Data Mining<br /><ul><li>This pie chart illustrates the number of cases of WNV in the 36 states per month.
  51. 51. There were a total of 241 reported cases of WNV in 2009. This total was not on the website but was instead discovered through data mining.
  52. 52. The small Excel file is the file used to create this pie chart. The data was extracted from the main Excel file shown on the previous slide.</li></li></ul><li>WNV Data Mining<br /><ul><li>There was one case of WNV reported in Texas in March. The remaining 240 cases occurred between July and November.
  53. 53. The majority of cases were reported in August. August’s 89 cases account for 37% of WNV cases in 2009.
  54. 54. July had the second highest number of cases, 78, accounting for about 32% of the WNV cases in 2009.</li></li></ul><li>How to protect equines from WNV<br /><ul><li>The image to the right illustrates the West Nile Virus transmission cycle.
  55. 55. It can be difficult to isolate your horse from mosquitoes, but there are protective measures.
  56. 56. The best ways to keep horses from getting WNV is to:
  57. 57. Reduce the source (eliminate mosquitoes)
  58. 58. Avoid the source (mosquitoes)
  59. 59. Vaccinate against the virus</li></ul>U.S. Department of Agriculture- Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.<br />http://www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/nahss/equine/wnv/ada_wnv_2007.pdf.<br />Viewed 2/24/10.<br />
  60. 60. How to protect equines from WNV<br /><ul><li>The best way to limit a horse’s exposure to infected mosquitoes is to limit mosquito breeding sites.
  61. 61. Remove any potential sources of standing water
  62. 62. Clean water troughs
  63. 63. Clean clogged roof gutters
  64. 64. Turn over wheel barrows that are not in use
  65. 65. Manage property with landscaping to eliminate low spots where standing water might collect.</li></ul>Polyjumps.com.<br />http://www.polyjumps.com/acatalog/TWtop.jpg.<br />02/26/10<br />
  66. 66. Vaccinating against WNV<br /><ul><li>The American Association of Equine Practitioners (AAEP) recommends that all horses in North America be immunized against West Nile Virus.
  67. 67. The risk of exposure to an infected mosquito and the fact that mosquitoes carry the virus make it difficult to predict what regions of the country are most likely to have infected mosquitoes.
  68. 68. The AAEP recommends annual revaccination in the spring, prior to the peak WNV season.
  69. 69. This supports my finding that the fall months are the months with the most WNV cases, meaning horses are at the most risk for WNV infection during these months.</li></ul>U.S. Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.<br />http://www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/nahss/equine/wnv/ada_wnv_2007.pdf.<br />Viewed 2/24/10.<br />
  70. 70. Is WNV under control?<br /><ul><li>The Texas Department of State Health Services provides annual statistics for West Nile Virus in Texas.
  71. 71. http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/idcu/disease/arboviral/westnile/statistics//annual/default.asp
  72. 72. The annual summaries include the number of cases and counties related to bird, human (virus and fever), mosquito, horse, and other West Nile Virus infections.</li></ul>Texas Department of State Health Services.<br />http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/idcu/disease/arboviral/westnile/statistics//annual/default.asp.<br />02/25/10.<br />
  73. 73. Is WNV under control?<br /><ul><li>The Texas Department of State Health Service’s website has Annual Summaries from 2009 to 2002. (2010 is available but has zero cases.)
  74. 74. The maps of the United States shown at the beginning of this presentation showed that the number of WNV cases in equines has decreased. However, mosquitoes are the main factor in equine WNV cases.
  75. 75. Therefore, the information on the Texas Department of State Health Service’s website will allow me to see if WNV has decreased among mosquitoes.
  76. 76. I will take the chart information on cases of mosquitoes and horses and compile it in an Excel spreadsheet. </li></li></ul><li>Is WNV under control?<br /><ul><li>This Excel spreadsheet shows the number of cases of WNV in mosquitoes and horses from 2002 through 2009.</li></li></ul><li>Is WNV under control?<br /><ul><li>The graph shows that cases of mosquitoes with WNV and horses with WNV have decreased.
  77. 77. Please note that the dates decrease in order along the x-axis. (The graph starts at 2009, the most recent year.)
  78. 78. I would like the site to have included information about how they complied research relating to the number of mosquitoes carrying WNV.</li></li></ul><li>Is WNV under control?<br /><ul><li>It is interesting to note that the number of mosquitoes cases of WNV decreased from 2007 to 2008 but then increased again in 2009.
  79. 79. The number of horse cases of WNV only increased slightly between 2008 and 2009, suggesting that vaccinations are effective even when WNV is being carried by large numbers of mosquitoes.</li></li></ul><li>Is WNV under control?<br /><ul><li>It is also interesting to look at the number of mosquito and horse cases in a line graph form. Please note that this time, the dates are sequential (from 2002 to 2009).
  80. 80. Below is the Excel sheet used to create the line graph.</li></li></ul><li>Is WNV under control?<br /><ul><li>The line graph really illustrates the decrease in WNV infections from 2002 to 2009.
  81. 81. It will be interesting to see if the number of mosquito cases continues to increase in 2010.
  82. 82. Hopefully horse and mosquito cases will decrease in the future years.</li></li></ul><li>Answering the Question<br /><ul><li>The question asked at the beginning of this presentation was, “How common is West Nile Virus and when is it a threat to equines?”
  83. 83. This question has two sections.
  84. 84. How common is West Nile Virus?
  85. 85. West Nile Virus is common enough that the American Association of Equine Practitioners recommends that all horses in North America receive an annual vaccination.
  86. 86. According to the American Association of Equine Practitioners, WNV is considered to be endemic in all areas of North America. The results of data mining shown in this PowerPoint confirm this point.</li></li></ul><li>Answering the Question<br /><ul><li>When is West Nile Virus a threat to equines?
  87. 87. West Nile Virus is definitely a threat to equines.
  88. 88. The American Association of Equine Practitioners states that the mortality rate for horses with signs of a West Nile Virus infection is 33%.
  89. 89. The data shown in my graphs shows that West Nile Virus is most frequent in the fall months, so it is extremely important that horses are vaccinated prior to those months, ideally in the spring.
  90. 90. The line graph shows a decrease in WNV cases in horses over the past 7 years. However, WNV is still present, so it is still a threat.</li></li></ul><li>References<br />American Association of Equine Practitioners (2010). Retrieved February 25, 2010, from http://www.aaep.org/pdfs/AAEP_WNV_Guidelines_2005.pdf.<br />Center for Disease Control (2010). Retrieved February 23, 2010, from http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/westnile/qa/wnv_horses.htm.<br />North East Independent School District (n.d.). Retrieved February 21, 2010, from http://www.neisd.net/elmlang/images/j0189633.jpg.<br />Polyjumps.com (n.d.). Retrieved February 26, 2010, from http://www.polyjumps.com/acatalog/TWtop.jpg.<br />Texas Department of State Health Services (n.d.). Retrieved February 25, 2010, from http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/idcu/disease/arboviral/westnile/statistics//annual/default.asp.<br />
  91. 91. References<br />United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (n.d.). Retrieved February 22, 2010, from http://www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/nahss/equine/wnv/wnv_distribution_maps.htm.<br />United States Department of Agriculture – Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (n.d.). Retrieved February 24, 2010, from http://www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/nahss/equine/wnv/ada_wnv_2007.pdf.<br />

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