Bizarre Economic Indicators

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agorafinancial.com

Sometimes odd indicators are better guides to figuring out the economic trends than complex econometric models that aren't always very accurate. Here are just a few of the many bizarre economic indexes out there.

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Bizarre Economic Indicators

  1. 1. Bizarre  Economic Indexes Economists  have  been  way  off  with  their  forecasts  during     the  last  few  years.    Making  sense  of  the  latest  economic     indicators  has  become  less  science  and  more  gut.   Brought to you by
  2. 2. [ Super Bowl Indicator ]ConceptA Super Bowl win for a team from the old AFL(AFC division) foretells a decline in the stockmarket for the coming year. A win for a teamfrom the old NFL (NFC division) means thestock market will be up for the year. Proof The accuracy rate of this index ! 80% since its inception in 1967.! The S&P 500 average gain for the three years (’67, ‘96, ’10) that the Green Bay Packers have won the Super Bowl. ! [An old NFL (NFC division) team] 15.82%
  3. 3. [ The Aspirin Indicator ]Concept Sales of aspirin and other headache ! medications are expected to increase ! as the economy heads toward rough ! times, and more people feel the stress. !Proof The % that Advil sales went up in 2008 at the height of economic uncertainty.! 2%
  4. 4. [ Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue Indicator ] Proof 2011 2010Concept Irina Shayk Brooklyn Decker Russian-born American-bornAn American model !appearing on the cover !suggests that the S&P !500 will generate a return !above its historical average, !while a non-American leads !to under-performance. ! S&P 500 0.00% change 13%
  5. 5. [ Cardboard Box Indicator ] Concept A sharp decline in the usage of cardboard means a recession is ! on the horizon, while an increase indicates expansion.! Proof Much of the worlds goods are shipped in cardboard containers. When cardboard box sales increase, it means companies are shipping a greater number of goods to sell, and therefore employing more people. Smurfit Kappa, Europe’s largest producer of cardboard boxes, saw results fall by $269.9 million in 2008 from a year earlier, as operating profits declined 50%.!
  6. 6. [ Coupon Redemption Index ] Concept When the economy slips, consumers turn to coupons ! to cut costs on things like detergent, toothpaste, and groceries.! Proof Rise in coupon use during the ! 2% second quarter of 2011.! Number of coupons redeemed in 2009 as! consumers looked to save more at the market.! 3.3 Billion
  7. 7. [ Skinny Tie Indicator ]ConceptTwo indicators: First, men will buy ties toappear that theyre working harder duringdifficult economic times. Second, ties getslimmer during bad times and brighterwhen the economy starts to recover.! Proof In the U.K., with news that layoffs could be coming in 2007, sales of ties spiked as men tried to show employers that they came to do work. Width of the ties narrowed due to austerity measures during past wars. Current production abilities seemed to have put that indicator on hold. But anyone who has spent time in lower Manhattan will tell you that skinny ties are back.!
  8. 8. [ Marine Advertisement Intensity Index ]ConceptThe intensity of Marine Corps ads evolve with !hiring trends. During tough times, civilians who !cant get work are more likely to enlist. But if too !many people sign up, the Marines toughen uptheir videos to scare off potential recruits. ! Proof Past commercials displayed a young ! recruit rock climbing sans gear – ! illustrating the army as exercise and a ! fun new adventure. Recent commercials ! depict war – highlighting the commitment ! and danger of joining the marine corps. !
  9. 9. For FREE articles and insight about surviving a tough economy, visit AGORAFINANCIAL.COM Sign up for a range of FREE daily e-lettersand gain access to economic commentary, analysis and market forecasts.

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