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dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Lean Kanban Risk Management
Agile Montréal – 11 Janvier 2017
Daniel Doiron, AKT
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN KANBAN RISK MANAGEMENT :
OPTIONS, LIQUIDITY & TRUST,
HEDGING, PRIORITIZING, SCHEDULING
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Risk and Real Life Options
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
A Fantastic Book !
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
KANBAN CADENCES
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
WHAT IS RISK ?
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Kanban Mechanics
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
F
F
O
M
N
K
J
I
Pull
Kanban systems are pull systems
Ideas
D
I
Dev
Ready
G
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 3
Test
Ready
5
F
B
CPull
Pull
*
There is capacity here
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
Pulling work from
development will create
capacity here too –
the pull signals move
upstream!Now we have capacity
to replenish our ready
buffer
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
WHO IS DOING WHAT ?
Test
Ready
F
E
I
G
D
GY
PB
DE MN
P1
AB
Ideas
Dev
Ready
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 35
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Where is the RISK ?
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
KEY RISK - LEAN MANAGEMENT
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN KANBAN RISK MANAGEMENT TRIAGE
NOW
NEVER
LATER
What should we do now, later or never !
Failing to apply this decision matrix treats all demand as irrefutable:
demand that will not be shaped !
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT – AVERSION
“Being risk averse is a bad thing in a
modern business -- saying yes to
everything and starting everything early is
a sign of risk aversion …. ”
David Anderson 20:20 – 20:53
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEpT0NPpBcI
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT – AVERSION
• Those who say ‘yes’ to everything are risk averse and treat all
demand as irrefutable demand and let it enter the system
• They want everything to be finished asap and therefore they
start everything as early as possible !
• WIP is therefore going thru the roof, variability sets in and
results are random. Trust is eroded !
• As long as a demand has not entered the Kanban system, it is
refutable demand and commitment is deferred !
• This is the robust and resilient way to manage WIP and
prevent variability from entering the system. Allocate demand
according to current capacity !
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
OPTIONS, LIQUIDITY & TRUST ,
HEDGING, PRIORITIZING,
SCHEDULING
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
Is your risk management approach:
a) Bringing people together ?
b) Triggering open discussions (narrative) ?
c) Cheap ?
d) Visual ?
e) Supporting many taxonomies ?
f) Qualitative ?
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
1. Blocker Analysis
2. Cost of Delay
3. Liquidity and real option theory
4. Taxonomies and radar graphs
5. When is discussion needed ?
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Blocker Analysis - Clustering
Identify Risks
Identify Likelihood & Impact
Root Cause Analysis
Reduction & Mitigation
actions
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
1. Blocker Analysis
2. Cost of Delay
3. Liquidity and real option theory
4. Taxonomies and radar graphs
5. When is discussion needed ?
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Where do you need to be more predictable ?
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Qualitative Cost of Delay function sketches
Expedite – white; critical and immediate cost
of delay; can exceed other kanban limit
(bumps other work); limit 1
Fixed date – orange; cost of delay goes up
significantly after deadline
Standard - yellow; increasing urgency, cost of
delay is shallow but accelerates before
leveling out
Intangible – blue; cost of delay may be
significant but is not incurred until significantly
later, if at all
time
impact
time
impact
time
impact
time
impact
Class of service and its policiesColor Function
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBPa0
FE4hRs
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
COST OF DELAY TAXONOMY
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
COST OF DELAY TAXONOMY
Cost of Delay is for for big stuff !
• Majority of people understand it within
minutes
• Excellent for portfolio and project
selection or features
• Not so good for individual ticket selection
on day to day basis
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
?
WHAT DO WE DO FOR SMALL ITEMS ?
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
1. Blocker Analysis
2. Cost of Delay
3. Liquidity and real option theory
4. Taxonomies and radar graphs
5. When is discussion needed ?
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Real Life Options: Now, later or not at all
Real Life Options
(Maassen, Matts)
• Options have value
• Options have
expiry conditions
• Do not commit
early unless you
know why
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
TRUST & LIQUIDITY OF SYSTEMS
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
TRUST & LIQUIDITY OF SYSTEMS
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
• Liquidity tells us if our assumptions about our statistical
models based on the near past are still right and have
not moved outside the range of volatility ! (Lucas’ law)
• Little’s Law & Variability & Throughput & WIP etc.
• Liquidity is a general system health indicator metric of a
pull system. Like blood pressure it is easy to observe and
hard to fake
• Olaav Massen and Chris Matts contribution to Lean
Kanban Risk Management has taken paths into
scheduling, hedging, liquidity & trust, discovery Kanban
and much more
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
General Health - Easy to Measure – Hard to Fake
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Flow efficiencies of 1-5% are
commonly reported. *, **
> 40% is good!
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LIQUIDITY ISSUE – NO TAKERS FOR A TICKET
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Real Life Options: Who gets assigned a ticket ?
• Lean Kanban – Good enough to do the job
first. Never assign the most flexible competent
resources at first! Use those as coaches,
reviewers, improvement thinkers… and only
very occasionally “firefighters”. Keep options
open !
• TOC – Same thinking
• Cynefin – Same thinking
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
USE AVATARS FOR MANAGING LIQUIDITY & RISK
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LOW WIP ? NOT ALWAYS !
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN DECISION FILTER
Lean decision filter :
Value trumps flow
Expedite at the expense of flow to maximize value
Flow trumps waste elimination
Increase WIP to maintain flow even if this causes waste
Waste elimination trumps economies of scale
Never pursue economies of scale, balance demand with throughput
45
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
CHARACTERISTIC OF A LIQUID FINANCIAL MARKET
Tightness : Bid-Ask spread
Immediacy : How quick an order is filled
Breadth : Ability to handle large orders
Depth : Processing orders at different prices
Resiliency : Ability of the market to swing back to
normal or adjust after a surge of orders off the
market or one large order that moves the price
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
CHARACTERISTIC OF A LIQUID KANBAN
Tightness : Variance between customer expectations and
probability of meeting it within current lead time capability (Due
date performance)
Immediacy : Flow efficiency or waiting time until pull (Time
spent blocked or in done column)
Breadth : Variety of types of work handled (Classes of service)
Depth : Variety of risks under management and depth of
taxonomies
Resiliency : Ability of the market to recover to normal or adjust
after a surge in orders breaking wip constraints or swarming on
expedite lane
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
CHARACTERISTIC OF A GOOD KANBAN METRIC
A good Pull liquidity metric measures the
transaction volume per unit of time.
A usefull Lean metric is:
• Simple
• Self generating
• Relevant
• Leading indicator
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LIQUIDITY = THOUGHPUT MEASUREMENT !
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
TIGHTNESS – DUE DATE PERFORMANCE
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
IMMEDIACY – FLOW EFFICIENCY
Test
Ready
F
E
I
G
D
GY
PB
DE MN
P1
AB
Customer Lead Time
Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking
Ideas
Dev
Ready
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 35
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
WaitingWorking Working
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
BREADTH – CLASSES OF SERVICE & SLA
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
RESILIENCY - DEFERRED COMMITMENT
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
1. Blocker Analysis
2. Cost of Delay
3. Liquidity and real option theory
4. Taxonomies and radar graphs
5. When is discussion needed ?
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
SCHEDULING RISK TAXONOMY
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
PRODUCT LIFECYCLE RISK
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
DEPTH – RISK TAXONOMIES
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
INVESTING IN SAME RISK PROFILE IS BAD !
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
1. Blocker Analysis
2. Cost of Delay
3. Liquidity and real option theory
4. Taxonomies and radar graphs
5. When is discussion needed ?
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
RISK TAXONOMIES BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS
No talk needed !Let’s talk !
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
Demand Shaping Threshold
Dimension 1
Dimension 2
Dimension 3
Dimension 5
Dimension 4
Definitely
Do
This
Demand shaping
threshold
Talk about
this one
Definitely
Don’t
This
Each risk dimension
represents a taxonomy of
categories describing a
known risk.
Policy describes the
category in each
dimension at or
above which we wish
to accept demand
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
BAZARVOICE BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
RISK TAXONOMIES BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
RISK TAXONOMIES BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
RISK TAXONOMIES BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
RISK TAXONOMIES BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
RISK TAXONOMIES – SHAPING DEMAND
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
RISK TAXONOMIES & CONVERSATIONS
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
BACKUP SLIDES
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LINKS TO CONTENT OF THIS PRESENTATION
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBPa0FE4hRs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00Ha_oA_Jeo
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT – MORE LEAN STUFF
dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT

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La gestion visuelle Kanban - Daniel Doiron

  • 1. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Lean Kanban Risk Management Agile Montréal – 11 Janvier 2017 Daniel Doiron, AKT
  • 2. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN KANBAN RISK MANAGEMENT : OPTIONS, LIQUIDITY & TRUST, HEDGING, PRIORITIZING, SCHEDULING
  • 3. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Risk and Real Life Options
  • 4. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. A Fantastic Book !
  • 5. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. KANBAN CADENCES
  • 6. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. WHAT IS RISK ?
  • 7. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Kanban Mechanics
  • 8. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. F F O M N K J I Pull Kanban systems are pull systems Ideas D I Dev Ready G 5 Ongoing Development Testing Done 3 3 Test Ready 5 F B CPull Pull * There is capacity here UAT Release Ready ∞ ∞ Pulling work from development will create capacity here too – the pull signals move upstream!Now we have capacity to replenish our ready buffer
  • 9. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. WHO IS DOING WHAT ? Test Ready F E I G D GY PB DE MN P1 AB Ideas Dev Ready 5 Ongoing Development Testing Done 3 35 UAT Release Ready ∞ ∞
  • 10. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Where is the RISK ?
  • 11. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. KEY RISK - LEAN MANAGEMENT
  • 12. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN KANBAN RISK MANAGEMENT TRIAGE NOW NEVER LATER What should we do now, later or never ! Failing to apply this decision matrix treats all demand as irrefutable: demand that will not be shaped !
  • 13. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT – AVERSION “Being risk averse is a bad thing in a modern business -- saying yes to everything and starting everything early is a sign of risk aversion …. ” David Anderson 20:20 – 20:53 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEpT0NPpBcI
  • 14. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT – AVERSION • Those who say ‘yes’ to everything are risk averse and treat all demand as irrefutable demand and let it enter the system • They want everything to be finished asap and therefore they start everything as early as possible ! • WIP is therefore going thru the roof, variability sets in and results are random. Trust is eroded ! • As long as a demand has not entered the Kanban system, it is refutable demand and commitment is deferred ! • This is the robust and resilient way to manage WIP and prevent variability from entering the system. Allocate demand according to current capacity !
  • 15. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. OPTIONS, LIQUIDITY & TRUST , HEDGING, PRIORITIZING, SCHEDULING
  • 16. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT Is your risk management approach: a) Bringing people together ? b) Triggering open discussions (narrative) ? c) Cheap ? d) Visual ? e) Supporting many taxonomies ? f) Qualitative ?
  • 17. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT 1. Blocker Analysis 2. Cost of Delay 3. Liquidity and real option theory 4. Taxonomies and radar graphs 5. When is discussion needed ?
  • 18. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
  • 19. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Blocker Analysis - Clustering Identify Risks Identify Likelihood & Impact Root Cause Analysis Reduction & Mitigation actions
  • 20. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
  • 21. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
  • 22. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
  • 23. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
  • 24. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
  • 25. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Improve Quality By Understanding Why Bugs and Blockers Occur
  • 26. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT 1. Blocker Analysis 2. Cost of Delay 3. Liquidity and real option theory 4. Taxonomies and radar graphs 5. When is discussion needed ?
  • 27. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Where do you need to be more predictable ?
  • 28. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Qualitative Cost of Delay function sketches Expedite – white; critical and immediate cost of delay; can exceed other kanban limit (bumps other work); limit 1 Fixed date – orange; cost of delay goes up significantly after deadline Standard - yellow; increasing urgency, cost of delay is shallow but accelerates before leveling out Intangible – blue; cost of delay may be significant but is not incurred until significantly later, if at all time impact time impact time impact time impact Class of service and its policiesColor Function https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBPa0 FE4hRs
  • 29. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. COST OF DELAY TAXONOMY
  • 30. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. COST OF DELAY TAXONOMY Cost of Delay is for for big stuff ! • Majority of people understand it within minutes • Excellent for portfolio and project selection or features • Not so good for individual ticket selection on day to day basis
  • 31. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. ? WHAT DO WE DO FOR SMALL ITEMS ?
  • 32. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT 1. Blocker Analysis 2. Cost of Delay 3. Liquidity and real option theory 4. Taxonomies and radar graphs 5. When is discussion needed ?
  • 33. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Real Life Options: Now, later or not at all Real Life Options (Maassen, Matts) • Options have value • Options have expiry conditions • Do not commit early unless you know why
  • 34. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. TRUST & LIQUIDITY OF SYSTEMS
  • 35. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. TRUST & LIQUIDITY OF SYSTEMS
  • 36. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT • Liquidity tells us if our assumptions about our statistical models based on the near past are still right and have not moved outside the range of volatility ! (Lucas’ law) • Little’s Law & Variability & Throughput & WIP etc. • Liquidity is a general system health indicator metric of a pull system. Like blood pressure it is easy to observe and hard to fake • Olaav Massen and Chris Matts contribution to Lean Kanban Risk Management has taken paths into scheduling, hedging, liquidity & trust, discovery Kanban and much more
  • 37. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. General Health - Easy to Measure – Hard to Fake
  • 38. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Flow efficiencies of 1-5% are commonly reported. *, ** > 40% is good!
  • 39. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LIQUIDITY ISSUE – NO TAKERS FOR A TICKET
  • 40. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Real Life Options: Who gets assigned a ticket ? • Lean Kanban – Good enough to do the job first. Never assign the most flexible competent resources at first! Use those as coaches, reviewers, improvement thinkers… and only very occasionally “firefighters”. Keep options open ! • TOC – Same thinking • Cynefin – Same thinking
  • 41. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
  • 42. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. USE AVATARS FOR MANAGING LIQUIDITY & RISK
  • 43. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LOW WIP ? NOT ALWAYS !
  • 44. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
  • 45. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN DECISION FILTER Lean decision filter : Value trumps flow Expedite at the expense of flow to maximize value Flow trumps waste elimination Increase WIP to maintain flow even if this causes waste Waste elimination trumps economies of scale Never pursue economies of scale, balance demand with throughput 45
  • 46. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. CHARACTERISTIC OF A LIQUID FINANCIAL MARKET Tightness : Bid-Ask spread Immediacy : How quick an order is filled Breadth : Ability to handle large orders Depth : Processing orders at different prices Resiliency : Ability of the market to swing back to normal or adjust after a surge of orders off the market or one large order that moves the price
  • 47. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. CHARACTERISTIC OF A LIQUID KANBAN Tightness : Variance between customer expectations and probability of meeting it within current lead time capability (Due date performance) Immediacy : Flow efficiency or waiting time until pull (Time spent blocked or in done column) Breadth : Variety of types of work handled (Classes of service) Depth : Variety of risks under management and depth of taxonomies Resiliency : Ability of the market to recover to normal or adjust after a surge in orders breaking wip constraints or swarming on expedite lane
  • 48. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. CHARACTERISTIC OF A GOOD KANBAN METRIC A good Pull liquidity metric measures the transaction volume per unit of time. A usefull Lean metric is: • Simple • Self generating • Relevant • Leading indicator
  • 49. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LIQUIDITY = THOUGHPUT MEASUREMENT !
  • 50. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. TIGHTNESS – DUE DATE PERFORMANCE
  • 51. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. IMMEDIACY – FLOW EFFICIENCY Test Ready F E I G D GY PB DE MN P1 AB Customer Lead Time Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking Ideas Dev Ready 5 Ongoing Development Testing Done 3 35 UAT Release Ready ∞ ∞ WaitingWorking Working
  • 52. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. BREADTH – CLASSES OF SERVICE & SLA
  • 53. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. RESILIENCY - DEFERRED COMMITMENT
  • 54. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
  • 55. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT 1. Blocker Analysis 2. Cost of Delay 3. Liquidity and real option theory 4. Taxonomies and radar graphs 5. When is discussion needed ?
  • 56. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. SCHEDULING RISK TAXONOMY
  • 57. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. PRODUCT LIFECYCLE RISK
  • 58. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. DEPTH – RISK TAXONOMIES
  • 59. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
  • 60. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
  • 61. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
  • 62. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT
  • 63. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. INVESTING IN SAME RISK PROFILE IS BAD !
  • 64. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT 1. Blocker Analysis 2. Cost of Delay 3. Liquidity and real option theory 4. Taxonomies and radar graphs 5. When is discussion needed ?
  • 65. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. RISK TAXONOMIES BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS No talk needed !Let’s talk !
  • 66. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Demand Shaping Threshold Dimension 1 Dimension 2 Dimension 3 Dimension 5 Dimension 4 Definitely Do This Demand shaping threshold Talk about this one Definitely Don’t This Each risk dimension represents a taxonomy of categories describing a known risk. Policy describes the category in each dimension at or above which we wish to accept demand
  • 67. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. BAZARVOICE BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS
  • 68. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. RISK TAXONOMIES BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS
  • 69. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. RISK TAXONOMIES BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS
  • 70. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. RISK TAXONOMIES BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS
  • 71. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. RISK TAXONOMIES BASELINE & CONVERSATIONS
  • 72. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. RISK TAXONOMIES – SHAPING DEMAND
  • 73. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. RISK TAXONOMIES & CONVERSATIONS
  • 74. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. BACKUP SLIDES
  • 75. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LINKS TO CONTENT OF THIS PRESENTATION https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBPa0FE4hRs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00Ha_oA_Jeo
  • 76. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT – MORE LEAN STUFF
  • 77. dja@leankanban.com @lki_dja Official Licensed Material Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. LEAN RISK MANAGEMENT

Editor's Notes

  1. This section is intended as a game debrief and can be optional, delivered in part of in whole but any off-the-cuff debrief must cover the topics in these slides or the slides should be presented. If the instructor chooses to debrief entirely off-the-cuff using flipcharts etc, then this section of slides can be provided to attendees for later reference === This is how pull systems work. Kanban is a pull system.
  2. Quantitative approaches are really qualitative as they are arbitrary
  3. Blocker Clustering was pioneered by Klaus Leopold. It assumes blocker tickets record the number of days blocked as well as information about the source of the delay.
  4. Blocker Clustering was pioneered by Klaus Leopold. It assumes blocker tickets record the number of days blocked as well as information about the source of the delay.
  5. Blocker Clustering was pioneered by Klaus Leopold. It assumes blocker tickets record the number of days blocked as well as information about the source of the delay.
  6. Blocker Clustering was pioneered by Klaus Leopold. It assumes blocker tickets record the number of days blocked as well as information about the source of the delay.
  7. Blocker Clustering was pioneered by Klaus Leopold. It assumes blocker tickets record the number of days blocked as well as information about the source of the delay.
  8. Blocker Clustering was pioneered by Klaus Leopold. It assumes blocker tickets record the number of days blocked as well as information about the source of the delay.
  9. Blocker Clustering was pioneered by Klaus Leopold. It assumes blocker tickets record the number of days blocked as well as information about the source of the delay.
  10. Blocker Clustering was pioneered by Klaus Leopold. It assumes blocker tickets record the number of days blocked as well as information about the source of the delay.
  11. Increasing WIP, Specialisation and tickets increases liquidity and Trust
  12. General Health indicator .. Hard to fake, easy to measure like blood pressure !
  13. In this example, a risk threshold is established. Only the higher risk items are accepted. Low risk items are rejected. Items which straddle the threshold are discussed and accepted based on free capacity.