Opening & Key Note - Modern Management Methods UK 2013 - Kanban Evolutionary Management


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Opening & Key Note - Modern Management Methods UK 2013 - Kanban Evolutionary Management

  1. 1. Why Modern? Why now? What does modern mean and what is enabling new ways of managing in a new century Presenter: David J. Anderson CEO Lean Kanban Inc. Lean Kanban UK London October 2013 Release 1.0 @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  2. 2. Modern in Music @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  3. 3. Progressive but not Modern! @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  4. 4. Modern @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  5. 5. Modern in Art @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  6. 6. Photography The arrival of photography heralded an end to several hundred years of representational painting Photography was a discontinuous innovation @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  7. 7. Impressionism – a new beginning @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  8. 8. Modern in Science @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  9. 9. Newtonian physics was out and the era of Quantum Mechanics arrived James Clerk-Maxwell Albert Einstein Werner Heisenberg @lkuceo Niels Bohr Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  10. 10. The Drucker Challenge @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  11. 11. Drucker’s Challenge in 1999 Can we improve the productivity of knowledge workers by a factor of fifty times during the twenty first century? @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  12. 12. Where might a 50x improvement come from? Ready For Delivery Delivered Pool of Ideas Testing FlowCommitted measures the efficiency Development 3 ∞ percentage of total lead time 2 3 ∞ Ongoing Done is spent actually adding value Verification Acceptance (or knowledge) versus waiting efficiency% = Work Time Flow commonly reported*, ** Multitasking means time spent E in working columns is often waiting time G PB GY DE Waiting Working MN AB Waiting Working Lead Time * Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013 ** 2% reported by Zsolt Fabok, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012 @lkuceo x 100% Lead Time F Flow efficiencies of 1-5% are P1 D I ∞ Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Waiting Waiting
  13. 13. Modern Management @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  14. 14. We stand on the verge of a revolution in modern management New science, new thinking and new technology is enabling us to implement new ways of managing creative work for the businesses of the 21st Century @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  15. 15. Breakthroughs in Understanding humans The big innovation in understanding humans is the emergence of neuroscience in the past 25 years While significant advances in sociology have given us models for understanding tribal behavior in the workplace Advances in complexity science have given us ways to understand and react to situations where the outcome is emergent and the starting conditions matter @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  16. 16. The Quantum Era of Management Management has been rooted in the philosophy of determinism and reductionism. It's 18th Century in origin. Recent trends have seen us move to a more holistic systems thinking approach, and a probabilistic and statistical approach to risk and decision making These changes parallel the move from Newtonian Physics to Quantum Mechanics in natural philosophy @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  17. 17. New technologies enable a new form New technologies such as the humble Post-It note as well as tracking & simulation software, flat panel touch-sensitive displays, ubiquitous broadband Internet available globally, high definition web cams, and video over IP are just some of the technologies enabling us to embrace a new form of management @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  18. 18. Social Capital Reaps Rewards This new management involves understanding people - trusting them, empowering them But it is an empowerment without loss of control It is autonomy without loss of governance It's humane without being anarchistic @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  19. 19. The System & Environment Matter Modern management also recognizes that the system and the environment matter Individual performance isn't enough Reductionism to the smallest unit - the worker - local optimization - make each worker produce as much as possible - isn't the answer The complex system of which the worker is just a single part must be designed and managed Understanding and affecting the outcome from complex systems of work is the key to delivering on Drucker's challenge. Simply motivating people isn't enough! @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  20. 20. Conclusion @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  21. 21. The Form Must Change! The key idea with any modern movement is that a discontinuous innovation causes the form to change! Modern Management contains the idea that we must do things differently. View the world through a different lens. Frame and make decisions differently. To deliver on Drucker’s challenge we must understand the complex nature of modern work using new models & new science. We must use this understanding to make better decisions @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  22. 22. Thank you! @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  23. 23. Kanban and evolutionary management Presenter: David J. Anderson CEO Lean Kanban Inc. Lean Kanban UK London October 2013 Release 1.0 @lkuceo Lessons we can learn from Bruce Lee’s journey in martial arts Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  24. 24. Bruce Lee’s Journey in Martial Arts @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  25. 25. Bruce Lee rejected traditional teaching and styles of Chinese martial arts • There are some parallels in the story of Bruce Lee and the emergence of his approach to Kung Fu • Lee rejected the idea of following a particular style of Chinese Martial Arts @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  26. 26. Kung Fu Panda simplified the art to only four styles Mantis Snake Tiger Monkey @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  27. 27. There are in fact very many styles… @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  28. 28. “Dry land swimming” provides a false sense of capability • The only way to learn is to train with a live opponent • Lee rejected the many styles of martial arts for various reasons, mainly that they gave the practitioners a false sense of capability, putting them at risk in real combat situations • He was against Kata (learning patterns without an opponent) and described them in derogatory terms such as "dry land swimming.“ @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  29. 29. Lee wanted to start from first principles and core concepts Four ranges of combat • • • • Kicking Punching Trapping Grappling Five* Ways of Attack*** • Single Direct Attack (SDA) • Attack By Combination (ABC) • Progressive Indirect Attack (PIA) • (Hand) Immobilization Attack (HIA) • Attack by Drawing (ABD) • Single Angle Attack (SAA) *Apparently still called the Five Ways, there are actually now six **with the later inclusion of SAA **The fact that The Five Ways has six elements is evidence of evolution in action ***Incorporated core ideas such as "center line" and single fluid motion from Wing Chun and parrying from Epee Fencing**** ****Not a Chinese Martial Art and hence evidence of "no limitation as limitation" @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  30. 30. Lee’s approach still needed a name • He named his approach Jeet Kune Do - the way of the intercepting fist - after one of the practices taught in his method • He was quick to point out that it was just a name, a way of communicating a set of ideas. He was passionate that practitioners shouldn't get hung up on the name or the inclusion of any one move or action. @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  31. 31. Jeet Kune Do Having no limitation as limitation @lkuceo Using no way as way Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  32. 32. Jeet Kune Do encourages development of a uniquely personal style "absorb that which is useful“ discard the remainder @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. • a framework from which to pick & develop a personal style • an evolutionary approach where adoption of maneuvers is learned & reinforced by training with an opponent • Nothing was sacred
  33. 33. Training with an opponent provides the core feedback loop to drive adaptation Lee pursued ever more elaborate approaches to protected real combat training to enable the closed loop learning that was core to the evolutionary nature of JKD @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  34. 34. Kata are not adaptive In comparison with JKD, patterned styles of martial arts taught with "kata" were open loop and not adaptive. There is no learning from practicing kata @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  35. 35. Martial Arts viewed through a Cynefin* Lens Complex Jeet Kune Do Emergent Practices Complicated Patterned Styles Good Practices Chaotic Simple Novel Practices Individual Best Practice Kata * @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  36. 36. Lee’s genius was recognizing hand-to-hand combat is an unordered problem • Patterned styles are perfectly good for controlled circumstances such as competition • Sporting combat is an ordered domain problem • Street fighting is not orderly and therefore emergent practice is required • Unordered problem required a new philosophy @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  37. 37. Motivation for the Kanban Method @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  38. 38. Traditional Change is an A to B process Designed Current Process Defined transition Future Process • A is where you are now. B is a destination. • B is either defined (from a methodology definition) • or designed (by tailoring a framework or using a model based approach such as VSM* or TOC TP**) • To get from A to B, a change agency*** will guide a transition initiative to install B into the organization * Value stream mapping, ** Theory of Constraints Thinking Processes ***either an internal process group or external consultants @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  39. 39. Change initiatives fail (even) more often than projects Change initiatives often fail (aborted) or produce lack luster results They fail to institutionalize resulting in regression back to old behavior @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  40. 40. Daniel Kahneman has given us a simple model for how we process information Learning from theory Learning by Experience SLOW FAST But fast to learn But slow to learn System 1 Sensory Perception Pattern Matching @lkuceo Daniel Kahneman Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. System 2 Logical Inference Engine
  41. 41. How we process change… I logically evaluate change using System 2 I adapt quickly I feel change emotionally using System 1 Silicon-based life form I adapt slowly Daniel Kahneman @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Carbon-based life form
  42. 42. Adopting new processes challenges people psychologically & sociologically • New roles attack identity • New responsibilities using new techniques & practices threaten self-esteem & social status • Most people resist most change because individually they have more to lose than gain • It is safer to be conservative and stick to current practices and avoid shaking up the current social hierarchy • Only the brave, the reckless or the desperate will pursue grand changes @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  43. 43. The Kanban Method… • Rejects the traditional approach to change • Believes, it is better to avoid resistance than to push harder against it • Don’t install new processes • Don’t reorganize • Is designed for carbon-based life forms • Evolutionary change that is humane @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  44. 44. The Kanban Method… • Catalyzes improvement through use of kanban systems and visual boards* • Takes its name from the use of kanban but it is just a name • Anyone who thinks Kanban is just about kanban (boards & systems) is truly mistaken *also known as "kanban" in Chinese and in Japanese when written with Chinese characters @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  45. 45. The Kanban Method is a new approach to improvement Kanban is a method without methodology @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  46. 46. Water flows around the rock “be like water” the rock represents resistance @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  47. 47. The Kanban Method @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  48. 48. Kanban should be like water* In change management, resistance is from the people involved and it is always emotional (system 1) To flow around the rock, we must learn how to avoid emotional resistance * @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  49. 49. Principles behind the Kanban Method • Start with what you do now • Agree to pursue evolutionary change • Initially, respect roles, responsibilities and job titles • Encourage acts of leadership at all levels The first 3 principles were specifically chosen to address System 1 objections, to flow around the rock of emotional resistance in humans @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  50. 50. The Kanban Lens Kanban asks us to view the world of work through a new lens • Creative work is service-oriented • Service delivery involves workflow • Workflow involves a series of knowledge discovery activities Kanban would be less applicable if a serviceorientated view of work were difficult to conceive or the work was sufficiently new that a definable series of knowledge discovery activities had not emerged @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  51. 51. 6 Practices Enable Process Evolution The Kanban Method Visualize Limit Work-in-progress Manage Flow Make Policies Explicit Implement Feedback Loops Improve Collaboratively, Evolve Experimentally (using models & the scientific method) @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  52. 52. Start with what you do now • The Kanban Method evolved with the principle that it “should be like water” - enable change while avoiding sources of resistance • With Kanban you start with what you do now, and "kanbanize" it, catalyzing the evolutionary process into action. Changes to processes in use will occur • Evaluating whether a change is truly an improvement is done using fitness criteria that evaluate an external outcome @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  53. 53. Fitness Criteria @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  54. 54. Fitness criteria are metrics that measure observable external outcomes • Fitness criteria are metrics that measure things customers or other external stakeholders value • • • • Delivery time Quality Predictability Safety (conformance to regulatory requirements) • or metrics that value actual outcomes such as • customer satisfaction • employee satisfaction @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  55. 55. Net Promoter Score is a Fitness Evaluator but is it the only metric we need? • Steve Denning has proposed that Net Promoter Score (NPS) is the only metric that business should care about • NPS is interesting because it is a fitness evaluator. It will indicate whether a business (or product) is likely to survive & thrive • But is it the only metric we need? @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Steve Denning
  56. 56. Net Promoter Score is a way of evaluating customer satisfaction • In a general sense and at an abstract level NPS tells us whether customers like what we offer but we cannot know what they truly care about • For the abstract problem of, “Can we measure customer satisfaction?” NPV is a reasonably good measure, if used properly @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  57. 57. The problem with Net Promoter Score is that it doesn’t tell you what to do! • Net Promoter Score (if used properly) will tell you whether your product or service is likely to continue selling • However, it doesn’t give you any clues about what to do or how to improve • If NPS is your only metric you’re left to randomly experiment to generate a higher score • Like biological evolution, random mutation is expensive, takes a long time & involves luck @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  58. 58. Can we be smarter by using better fitness criteria than NPS? • If we have a service-oriented view of the world, and want to evaluate service delivery then we already know what customers care about • • • • Lead time Quality Predictability Safety (or conformance to regulatory reqs) @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  59. 59. If we order a pizza we know what we care about… • Fast delivery • lead time from order to delivery • Accuracy and quality • Pepperoni not Hawaiian • Still warm on delivery • Predictable Delivery • If they say “ready in 30 minutes”, we want delivery in 25-35 minutes @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  60. 60. If we need a medical procedure… • Short waiting time • Queuing time from diagnosis to procedure • Short procedure & recovery time • Fast procedure, fast recovery time, implies minimally invasive surgery and use of technology to reduce the craft input and eliminate variability • Predictability of schedule & outcome • Procedure should proceed as scheduled • Outcome should have high probability of success • Safe • Low risk of complications • Regulatory health & safety procedures followed @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  61. 61. Validate Fitness Criteria with real customers • It is necessary to keep checking that the fitness criteria we are measuring do indeed matter to customers • Variation in what matters to different customers provides the opportunity to segment demand and offer different classes of service within your kanban system • e.g. Will you pay extra to have your pizza delivered faster? @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  62. 62. Which system is fitter? System B System A Mean 17 days Mean 12 days 30 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 25 20 15 Frequency 10 Frequency 5 0 5 Lead Time (Days) 10 15 20 25 30 More Lead Time in Days We don’t know! System B is faster but without understanding customer expectations, both may be fit enough @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  63. 63. Measuring delivery against expectation System B System A Mean 17 days 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 System B is clearly fitter! Mean 12 days 30 25 20 15 Frequency 10 Frequency 5 System B delivers 5/7 within expectations System A only delivers 3/7 within expectations 0 5 10 15 Lead Time (Days) 20 10 8 6 4 Frequency 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Frequency -15 Lead Time Expectation Spread (Days) @lkuceo More System B 12 0 30 Lead Time in Days System A 2 25 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 More Lead Time Expectation Spread (Days) Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  64. 64. Business Risks, Fitness Criteria & Classes of Service should all align • If your kanban system is designed properly the classes of service you are offering should align with the true business risks in the domain • And the metrics being used to evaluate system capability, should be fitness criteria that are derived from the business risk being managed • For example, cost of delay requires us to measure lead time @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  65. 65. Assessing fitness to pursue a short Shelf-Life strategy 1-2 years) Lead Time If we plan to pursue short shelf-life opportunities, we must measure predictability, lead time, replenishment & delivery frequency as fitness Medium criteria. Expectations are set based on our chosen (months, strategy to pursue short shelf-life opportunities quarters, Delivery Frequent Short Frequent Replenishment Predictability Are our business agility & High predictability fit Short (days, enough for our weeks, strategy? months) Business Agility Long Low @lkuceo (years, decades) Seldom Long Kanban system dynamics Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Seldom
  66. 66. Evolutionary change has no defined end point Initial Process Evaluate Fitness Roll back Evaluate Fitness We don’t know the end-point but we do know our emergent process is fitter! Evaluate Fitness Roll forward Evolving Process Evaluate Fitness Evalua Fitnes Future process is emergent @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  67. 67. Kanban viewed through a Cynefin*work types Multiple Lens Ordered Kanban systems alone Unordered aren’t enough in the unordered domain domains Pragmatic Holistic Philosophy Probabilitic Quantum Mechanics Multiple classes of domains service Complex Kanban Method Emergent Practices Complicated Deep Kanban Good Practices System Single work type Enlightenment Reductionist Philosophy Single class of service disorder Chaotic Kanban Method Novel Practices Not Applicable * @lkuceo Simple Simple Kanban Best Practice System Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Deterministic Newtonian Physics
  68. 68. Enabling Evolutionary Management @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  69. 69. Institutionalize feedback systems to enable evolutionary change Operations Review System Capability Review Standup Meeting manager to subordinate(s) (both 1-1 and 1-team) @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  70. 70. Disintermediate! Risks, fitness criteria & classes of service should be explicit & transparent Operations Review Lead time Quality Predictability Expose risk, classes of service & fitness criteria at all 3 levels of Lead time Quality feedback System Capability Review manager to subordinate(s) (both 1-1 and 1-team) @lkuceo Predictability Standup Meeting Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Lead time Quality Predictability
  71. 71. Is there room for improvement? Ready For Delivery Delivered Pool of Ideas Testing FlowCommitted measures the efficiency Development 3 ∞ percentage of total lead time 2 3 ∞ Ongoing Done is spent actually adding value Verification Acceptance (or knowledge) versus waiting efficiency% = Work Time Flow commonly reported*, ** Multitasking means time spent E in working columns is often waiting time G PB GY DE Waiting Working MN AB Waiting Working Lead Time * Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013 ** 2% reported by Zsolt Fabok, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012 @lkuceo x 100% Lead Time F Flow efficiencies of 1-5% are P1 D I ∞ Copyright Lean Kanban Inc. Waiting Waiting
  72. 72. Other metrics should only be used as input to models to drive improvement • Flow efficiency will help us identify wasteful delay • Time blocked and blocker clustering will help identify wasteful delay from specific assignable causes such as vendor dependency • Metrics like this help us focus improvement initiatives to improve the fitness criteria results – e.g. removing delay improves lead time @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  73. 73. Know why you are using a metric! • Is your metric a fitness criteria that assesses system capability and indicates fitness for purpose and likelihood of surviving and thriving by satisfying customers? • Or, is your metric evaluating and guiding a specific change to improve fitness of the system? • If neither, you don’t need it! • Metrics guiding improvements should be temporary & discarded when no longer needed @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  74. 74. Conclusion @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  75. 75. The future of creative knowledge work should be inspired by Bruce Lee & JKD Our opponents are uncertainty & risk. Engage directly Visualize & make them explicit throughout the workflow & at all 3 levels of reporting Teach beginners to set up safe-to-fail, learning environments at the individual, workflow & business unit levels Evolutionary methods are required to help us manage in complex environments If humans are involved the environment is Train with live opponents complex Fitness-for-purpose & sustainability come No kata from developing strong adaptive capability No "dry land swimming“ @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  76. 76. Thank you! @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  77. 77. David Anderson is a thought leader in managing creative knowledge workers. He is CEO of Lean Kanban Inc. a business franchising training & events globally with a vision of sustainable evolutionary approaches for improved service delivery & management in creative 21st Century industries. About He has 30 years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software teams delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative methods at large firms such as Sprint and Motorola. David is the pioneer of the Kanban Method an evolutionary approach to improved service delivery and better business agility. His latest book is, Lessons in Agile Management – On the Road to Kanban. He founded Lean Kanban University, the education division of Lean Kanban Inc, a trade association of member firms & franchisees dedicated to assuring high quality Kanban training through a worldwide network of accredited trainers offering classes based on a defined and peer reviewed curriculum. @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  78. 78. Acknowledgements The idea of Modern Management Methods was inspired by History of Modern Part 2 by Orchestral Maneuvers in the Dark. Daniel S. Vacanti first suggested that the Kanban Method and related techniques of probabilistic forecasting, statistical methods, and both qualitative and quantitative risk management were creating a change in management methods of the same magnitude and of a similar nature to the shift from Newtonian physics to Quantum Mechanics. Janice Linden-Reed assisted with photo editing for this presentation @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  79. 79. Acknowledgements Joe Campbell first blogged about the similarity in philosophy between the Kanban Method and the teachings of Bruce Lee. He coined the phrase “Kanban should be like water”. The data on slides 60 & 61 was provided by Raymond Keating of CME Group. My approach to change was framed by an observation from Peter Senge, “People do not resist change, they resist being changed!” He intuited resistance was rooted in identity. The Cynefin Framework & “Safe-to-fail Experiment” originated with Dave Snowden. Steve Denning proposed NPS as the only metric that matters in his book, “Radical Management.” @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.
  80. 80. @lkuceo Copyright Lean Kanban Inc.