Individually Smart,
Collectively Stupid
Lean Agile Scotland
Edinburgh
September 2012

David J. Anderson
David J. Anderson ...
Division 3 is attracting a lot more interest this
season!

It’s not rational,
man!

2001
Agile Manifesto
Adam Smith

Lean
...
So was sending Rangers to Division 3, an act of
collective stupidity?
An act of spiteful schadenfreude
(taking pleasure fr...
What’s happening to Rangers is tribal & emotional!

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Stack …


To understand how to be collectively smart,
we must understand tribal, social behavior.
Tribal behavior in the ...
Delays

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Collective stupidity manifests in poor
flow efficiency

delay

work
time
The first Kanban implementation at Microsoft exhi...
Flow Efficiency in manufacturing industries can
be >70% often >90%

Manufacturing workers appear to be
collectively smart!...
Why is it important to improve Flow Efficiency
and eliminate delay?

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Little’s Law

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Little’s Law

Completion Rate

=

WIP
Lead Time
Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Easily validated by visual inspection of a
cumulative flow diagram

Avg. Lead Time

Time
Inventory

Started

Designed

Cod...
Little’s Law
…we increase this

…to maintain this,…

Completion Rate

WIP

=

Lead Time
As this increases,…
We observe tha...
In 2005, HP printer firmware division in Boise,
Idaho discovered they had 4.5 years of WIP!!!
This was invisible until the...
Induced Work
the longer the delay to
fix a defect, the longer it
takes to fix

Defect
rate

time

Lean
Agile
Scotland

The...
Eventually, these effects combine to slow the
delivery rate to a trickle while large quantities
of work remain in progress...
Cost of Delay

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Long lead times add risk and cost. The future is
uncertain and faster delivery gives us greater
certainty of the utility o...
Stack…




1. Tribal Behavior isn't rational (as Adam
Smith defined it)
2. If we are to be collectively smart we must
ad...
Lean

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
How does Lean improve Flow Efficiency?


Optimize the whole!



Use a Systems Thinking approach!



To understand this,...
Graeme Obree

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Alex Ferguson

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
So Lean typically employs a system thinking
designer like Graeme Obree or Alex Ferguson.
The designer designs a new system...
Lean text books will tell you to "map the valuestream." In knowledge work, we tend to use an
older term "workflow" as the ...
How does Lean improve Flow Efficiency?


Optimize the whole!



Use a Systems Thinking approach!



Identify wasteful, ...
For knowledge work, this means identifying all the
delays and in turn the causes of delay, and then
designing them out of ...
So let's take a look at how an experienced and
successful coach introduced a number of famous
Scots to their new future st...
[Video clip from Damned United]

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
The team may not always accept the proposed
new process definition (or the designers opinion)!

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agile...
Stack…






1. Tribal Behavior isn't rational (as Adam
Smith defined it)
2. If we are to be collectively smart we must...
Self-organization

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
So, if people will resist being told what to do, or
perhaps our grand system designer can't get it
right all of the time, ...
Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Smith believed that all we required was to
construct a set of rational incentives to guide
individual behavior and markets...
Renee Descartes

If we were to
optimize the whole,
all we needed to
do was optimize
the parts by asking
each to act
ration...
Unfortunately, it is this line of thinking that caused
the need for a Lean revolution.

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
In recent times, the Internet has enabled and
encouraged self-organization on a massive scale.
But the best of these, such...
We might conclude from this that selforganization of large systems of humans is
challenging.

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilema...
The alternative to
Smith's Invisible Hand
was
constructed by an
Englishman - Thomas
Hobbes and his
Leviathan

Lean
Agile
S...
It was an English
version of the
Renaissance that
gave us socialist 5
year plans and
command and control
structures in
cor...
Now in the 21st Century, we are aware that both
of these extremes don't work. The command and
control Leviathan with its d...
Men (and women)
don't act rationally.
Modern knowledge
workers will not be
commanded and
controlled.

Lean
Agile
Scotland
...
Stack…








1. Tribal Behavior isn't rational (as Adam
Smith defined it)
2. If we are to be collectively smart we m...
Complexity

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
So why didn’t Mark Cavendish win Gold at the
Olympics?...

Mark Cavendish
Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
[video clip of Mark Cavendish]

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
The point of this story is that the obvious script
based on observed team capabilities didn't play
out because of the psyc...
The British, the Germans and the Australians
were "all-in" with their strategy of a sprint finish
with their top sprinter ...
Risk
(or, the future is uncertain)

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Risk is the idea that
things may not
work out exactly as
we would like them
to. If we wanted to
measure risk it is
the cha...
The British, Australian and German cycling teams
failed to manage their risk appropriately. The
complexity of the situatio...
Stack…










Lean
Agile
Scotland

1. Tribal Behavior isn't rational (as Adam
Smith defined it)
2. If we are to be...
Risk in Knowledge Work

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Unlike manufacturing industry, we often don't
know exactly what benefit will be derived from a
piece of software. It is al...
As a result, we can't know with certainty which
ideas for features and functions will produce the
greatest utility. Our re...
But multi-tasking means things take longer, and
longer is likely to affect quality, and incur a cost of
delay. So there is...
This should immediately make you think there is
an optimization problem here. What is the
optimum amount of multi-tasking ...
The truth is there is unlikely to be a recipe for this.
The answer will be situational and context
specific. As we can onl...
Instead we want our system to be adaptive and
for it to evolve to produce the fittest possible
process given current circu...
Stack…










Lean
Agile
Scotland



1. Tribal Behavior isn't rational (as Adam Smith defined
it)
2. If we are to...
Introduction to Kanban

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Kanban systems model workflow and limit WIP at each
step, signaling available capacity, effectively creating a pull
system...
Boards typically visualize a workflow as columns (input) left
to (output) right
WIP Limit – regulates
work at each stage i...
Tickets on the board are “committed”
Backlog items remain “options”
Kanban systems defer commitment & enable dynamic
prior...
Tickets on the board are committed. Items in the
backlog are merely options
5

4

Analysis
Input
Queue In Prog Done

3

4
...
Pull criteria policies encourage a focus on quality
& progress with imperfect information
5

4

Analysis
Input
Queue In Pr...
Cost of delay function sketches provide
a qualitative taxonomy to delineate
classes of risk
Function
impact

Expedite – wh...
Allocate capacity across classes of service
mapped against demand
5

4

Analysis
Input
Queue In Prog Done

3

4

Developme...
Benefits of a Kanban System


There are predictable benefits from the
merely complicated, mechanical nature of the
system...
The Kanban Method


What I didn’t predict was that kanban
systems, coupled with visualization would
create a positive ten...
Definition of
The Kanban Method

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Foundational Principles

1.
2.

3.

4.

Lean
Agile
Scotland

Start with what you do now
Agree to pursue incremental,
evolu...
Lean
Agile
Scotland

Kanban in Action tried to visually capture the principles

@agilemanager
Core practices to enable evolutionary capability

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

6.

Lean
Agile
Scotland

Visualize
Limit Work-in-Progres...
System Thinking Approach to Introducing Kanban
Understand Sources of Dissatisfaction

1.




From viewpoint of internal ...
Philosophy Behind
The Kanban Method

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
People resist change for emotional reasons. If
resistance wasn't emotional, the logical,
reasoning part of the brain could...
Emotional reasoning, in this sense, means the
older parts of our brain that process sensory
information and match patterns...
There is a psychological and sociological
component to resistance to change:
The psychology of the individual ego, self-im...
When a change is perceived to threaten the
individual’s sense of self or the tribe then it will be
resisted.

Lean
Agile
S...
Kanban embraces the Zen influenced philosophy
of Bruce Lee. Kanban should be like water! It
should flow around the rock! T...
Initial Kanban implementations should be
designed to avoid emotional resistance by
anticipating the self-image, and tribal...
The systems thinking approach to introducing
Kanban is designed to identify what can be
improved. The implementation shoul...
How many psychologists does it take to change a
lightbulb?

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Kanban's visual, tactile and collaborative nature
acts to move the participants to conclude for
themselves that changes ne...
There are no teams or organizational structures
defined in Kanban. Keeping existing
organizational structures avoids emoti...
It turns out that the initial implementation of the
kanban (pull) system can often be argued
logically because it does not...
As a result many of the predictable benefits from
the mechanical side of implementing a kanban
system are easily realized....
Kanban is not a software development lifecycle
or project management process. It is a method
for creating institutional ev...
Conclusions

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
And so, to pop some things from our stack…


Kanban is an approach to institutional
evolutionary capability. This enables...
And so, to pop some things from our stack…




Lean
Agile
Scotland

Kanban is an approach to institutional
evolutionary ...
And so, to pop some things from our stack…




Lean
Agile
Scotland

Whether a new method or process will be
embraced and...
And so, to pop some things from our stack…




The field of Behavioral Economics is
emerging to incorporate human psycho...
And so, to pop some things from our stack…
Defined and managed change on a large scale doesn't work
because the people inv...
How to be Collectively Smart?

Lean
Agile
Scotland
@agilemanager
Waste has to be eliminated by a self-aware
system that mutates and evolves using models to
guide changes
gradually improvi...
The guiding light is faster delivery of work to
produce the better economic results at a
sustainable pace. We must visuali...
An institutional capability to reflect and adapt
needs to be present and we need leadership that
is tolerant to failure an...
A Decade of Influences
Published June 2012

Lean
Agile
Scotland

115,000 words of
anecdotes explaining
my approach to lead...
Kanban Method Explained
Published April 2010

Lean
Agile
Scotland

A 72,000 word
intro to the topic

@agilemanager
Thank you!

Lean
Agile
Scotland

dja@djaa.com
http://djaa.com/

@agilemanager
http://leankanbanuniversity.com
http://www.limitedwipsociety.org

Yahoo! Groups: kanbandev

Yahoo! Groups: kanbanops
About…
David Anderson is a thought leader in
managing effective software teams. He leads
a consulting, training, publishin...
German
published January, 2011

Lean
Agile
Scotland

Translation by
Arne Roock &
Henning Wolf
of IT-Agile

@agilemanager
Spanish
published May 2011

Lean
Agile
Scotland

Translated by
Masa K Maeda, PhD

@agilemanager
Kanban System Adoption Examples Globally
USA
McKesson
Vanguard
GoDaddy
Xbox
Motley Fool
CityGrid Media
Ultimate Software
C...
Kanban System Adoption by Industry


Media




Games




Vanguard, Motley Fool, Chase, ASR

Software & Telecoms


Am...
Key Note - Lean Agile Scotland - Individually Smart, Collectively Stupid!
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Key Note - Lean Agile Scotland - Individually Smart, Collectively Stupid!

3,945 views

Published on

Complex creative knowledge worker environments require adaptive management solutions such as the Kanban Method. The psychology and sociology of people involved means that prescriptive solutions to process definitions and organizational performance will meet with resistance and the outcomes are unreliable.

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
3 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
3,945
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
151
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
40
Comments
0
Likes
3
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Key Note - Lean Agile Scotland - Individually Smart, Collectively Stupid!

  1. 1. Individually Smart, Collectively Stupid Lean Agile Scotland Edinburgh September 2012 David J. Anderson David J. Anderson & Associates, Inc. dja@djaa.com Twitter @agilemanager
  2. 2. Division 3 is attracting a lot more interest this season! It’s not rational, man! 2001 Agile Manifesto Adam Smith Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  3. 3. So was sending Rangers to Division 3, an act of collective stupidity? An act of spiteful schadenfreude (taking pleasure from the misfortunes of others). Is it irrational economically, serving no other purpose than providing that feel good factor from gloating over the football results every weekend for the next 3 years? I don't think so! Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  4. 4. What’s happening to Rangers is tribal & emotional! Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  5. 5. Stack …  To understand how to be collectively smart, we must understand tribal, social behavior. Tribal behavior in the workplace can affect performance and make us look collectively stupid.  but more about tribes later... Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  6. 6. Delays Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  7. 7. Collective stupidity manifests in poor flow efficiency delay work time The first Kanban implementation at Microsoft exhibited 8% flow efficiency initially. My personal experience is 5% - 15% before any improvement initiative is started Lean Agile Scotland Hakan Forss, a consultant from Sweden reports clients typically exhibit < 5% flow efficiency @agilemanager
  8. 8. Flow Efficiency in manufacturing industries can be >70% often >90% Manufacturing workers appear to be collectively smart! Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  9. 9. Why is it important to improve Flow Efficiency and eliminate delay? Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  10. 10. Little’s Law Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  11. 11. Little’s Law Completion Rate = WIP Lead Time Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  12. 12. Easily validated by visual inspection of a cumulative flow diagram Avg. Lead Time Time Inventory Started Designed Coded Complete 30 -M ar 23 -M ar 16 -M ar 9M ar 2M ar eb Avg. Comp Rate Lean Agile Scotland 24 -F eb WIP 17 -F eb 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 10 -F Features Device Management Ike II Cumulative Flow @agilemanager
  13. 13. Little’s Law …we increase this …to maintain this,… Completion Rate WIP = Lead Time As this increases,… We observe that as lead times increases due to delay, we tend to increase WIP in order to have a steady flow of delivery. We keep starting stuff! More WIP tends to cause longer leads times due to multi-tasking and quality issues. Vicious cycle can spiral out of control! Lean Agile Scotland We start more stuff! @agilemanager
  14. 14. In 2005, HP printer firmware division in Boise, Idaho discovered they had 4.5 years of WIP!!! This was invisible until they plotted a CFD based on data from their development tracking system Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  15. 15. Induced Work the longer the delay to fix a defect, the longer it takes to fix Defect rate time Lean Agile Scotland The longer the delays in designing something the more likelihood of defects. This has been observed to be non-linear. @agilemanager
  16. 16. Eventually, these effects combine to slow the delivery rate to a trickle while large quantities of work remain in progress Lean Agile Scotland And finally we stop starting stuff! But we still can't finish our work-in-progress @agilemanager
  17. 17. Cost of Delay Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  18. 18. Long lead times add risk and cost. The future is uncertain and faster delivery gives us greater certainty of the utility of what we delivering. Note the use of the word "utility" from economics and not "value". Utility isn't always a tangible monetary value. It merely implies usefulness that didn't previously exist. The longer it takes to deliver something the less certain we can be about its utility. There is an opportunity cost of delay - the risk adjusted utility of what we are building. So faster delivery gives us more certainty and is likely to deliver greater utility. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  19. 19. Stack…   1. Tribal Behavior isn't rational (as Adam Smith defined it) 2. If we are to be collectively smart we must address causes of delay Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  20. 20. Lean Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  21. 21. How does Lean improve Flow Efficiency?  Optimize the whole!  Use a Systems Thinking approach!  To understand this, let’s meet some well known Scottish systems thinkers… Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  22. 22. Graeme Obree Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  23. 23. Alex Ferguson Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  24. 24. So Lean typically employs a system thinking designer like Graeme Obree or Alex Ferguson. The designer designs a new system to optimize the whole and eliminate the waste. But how well does this scale? Obree is a craftsman working empirically on a small scale with few or any collaborators Ferguson is arguably a (benevolent) dictator of a small to medium sized enterprise Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  25. 25. Lean text books will tell you to "map the valuestream." In knowledge work, we tend to use an older term "workflow" as the metaphor of a stream implies a single direction and knowledge work flows tend to be complex and involve loops. So we should "Map the Workflow". This gives us a definition of our current process. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  26. 26. How does Lean improve Flow Efficiency?  Optimize the whole!  Use a Systems Thinking approach!  Identify wasteful, delaying activities and eliminate them Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  27. 27. For knowledge work, this means identifying all the delays and in turn the causes of delay, and then designing them out of our future process. So Lean employs a system thinking designer to design out causes of delay and define our new process. The Lean consultant will then plan and manage the transition from the old process to the new process. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  28. 28. So let's take a look at how an experienced and successful coach introduced a number of famous Scots to their new future state process… Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  29. 29. [Video clip from Damned United] Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  30. 30. The team may not always accept the proposed new process definition (or the designers opinion)! Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  31. 31. Stack…    1. Tribal Behavior isn't rational (as Adam Smith defined it) 2. If we are to be collectively smart we must address causes of delay 3. People (often) resist defined & managed change for emotional reasons Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  32. 32. Self-organization Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  33. 33. So, if people will resist being told what to do, or perhaps our grand system designer can't get it right all of the time, … the Agile community argues that we should allow individuals to self-organize to produce the best outcome - it's written into the Principles behind the Agile Manifesto. The father of self-organization is, of course, a Scotsman... Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  34. 34. Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  35. 35. Smith believed that all we required was to construct a set of rational incentives to guide individual behavior and markets would selforganize around optimal, efficient solutions. Loosely regulated markets would produce the optimal system outcome as each individual would act in his/her own best interests. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  36. 36. Renee Descartes If we were to optimize the whole, all we needed to do was optimize the parts by asking each to act rationally. Donaldson Brown Lean Agile Scotland Fredrick Taylor Couple this with Cartesian decomposition and it was inevitable that the ScottishFrench version of the Renaissance would deliver us to Taylorism and the invention of another great Scotsman, Donaldson Brown, CFO at GM, cost accounting. @agilemanager
  37. 37. Unfortunately, it is this line of thinking that caused the need for a Lean revolution. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  38. 38. In recent times, the Internet has enabled and encouraged self-organization on a massive scale. But the best of these, such as the open source software development communities like Linux, do not survive without a benevolent dictator. The Invisible Hand is indeed very visible and attached to a human leader. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  39. 39. We might conclude from this that selforganization of large systems of humans is challenging. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  40. 40. The alternative to Smith's Invisible Hand was constructed by an Englishman - Thomas Hobbes and his Leviathan Lean Agile Scotland The concept is simple the people cannot be trusted to act rationally (ethically or morally) and hence must be controlled through command and the rule of law. @agilemanager
  41. 41. It was an English version of the Renaissance that gave us socialist 5 year plans and command and control structures in corporations - albeit a Frenchman, Henri Fayol, who documented it as an approach to management around the turn of the 20th Century. Lean Agile Scotland Henri Fayol @agilemanager
  42. 42. Now in the 21st Century, we are aware that both of these extremes don't work. The command and control Leviathan with its designed outcomes and 5 year master plans have been shown to fail us. Equally, we suffer at the Invisible Hand that supposedly guided the markets to act rationally and optimize the outcome. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  43. 43. Men (and women) don't act rationally. Modern knowledge workers will not be commanded and controlled. Lean Agile Scotland And those that would command and control are often working with flawed plans and designs built on incomplete models and false assumptions. @agilemanager
  44. 44. Stack…     1. Tribal Behavior isn't rational (as Adam Smith defined it) 2. If we are to be collectively smart we must address causes of delay 3. People (often) resist defined & managed change for emotional reasons 4. After 250 years of the Leviathan & the Invisible Hand, we need a new philosophy to guide the organization of human activity in the 21st Century Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  45. 45. Complexity Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  46. 46. So why didn’t Mark Cavendish win Gold at the Olympics?... Mark Cavendish Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  47. 47. [video clip of Mark Cavendish] Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  48. 48. The point of this story is that the obvious script based on observed team capabilities didn't play out because of the psychology of the people involved and pre-race events that changed perception. Had Cavendish not won the final stage of the Tour De France so convincingly, he may indeed be the Olympic champion today. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  49. 49. The British, the Germans and the Australians were "all-in" with their strategy of a sprint finish with their top sprinter taking the Gold. They lacked adaptability and despite this lack of adaptability they also lacked the ability to collaborate in order for their strategy to have a chance. They were collectively stupid and sprinted for 17th place to save face. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  50. 50. Risk (or, the future is uncertain) Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  51. 51. Risk is the idea that things may not work out exactly as we would like them to. If we wanted to measure risk it is the chance and the magnitude of an actual outcome being different from our intended outcome. Lean Agile Scotland Managing risk is the science of minimizing the difference between a desired outcome and an actual outcome @agilemanager
  52. 52. The British, Australian and German cycling teams failed to manage their risk appropriately. The complexity of the situation meant that effective risk management required collaboration that did not emerge. Lean Agile Scotland If we ran the race over again, the outcome would be different, as the starting psychological starting conditions would be different. @agilemanager
  53. 53. Stack…      Lean Agile Scotland 1. Tribal Behavior isn't rational (as Adam Smith defined it) 2. If we are to be collectively smart we must address causes of delay 3. People (often) resist defined & managed change for emotional reasons 4. After 250 years of the Leviathan & the Invisible Hand, we need a new philosophy to guide the organization of human activity in the 21st Century 5. Human collaboration creates complexity from psychological and sociological influences. Results will change based on the starting conditions, all other things being equal @agilemanager
  54. 54. Risk in Knowledge Work Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  55. 55. Unlike manufacturing industry, we often don't know exactly what benefit will be derived from a piece of software. It is almost impossible to determine what a feature or function might be worth. Individually, one might be worthless, but combined with others it will have some utility but precisely how much? This can generally only be determined retrospectively. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  56. 56. As a result, we can't know with certainty which ideas for features and functions will produce the greatest utility. Our reaction to this is to hedge our bets by working on more than one at a time. Hence, due to the nature of knowledge work, multi-tasking is inevitable. It is the economically smart thing to do. It turns out, some multi-tasking isn't stupid at all, it's smart. Multi-tasking helps us mitigate risk. Multi-tasking buys us options. Options have value in the face of uncertainty. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  57. 57. But multi-tasking means things take longer, and longer is likely to affect quality, and incur a cost of delay. So there is a conflict! Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  58. 58. This should immediately make you think there is an optimization problem here. What is the optimum amount of multi-tasking (or additional work-in-progress) to mitigate the uncertainty of the future while providing the shortest possible lead times to maximize the utility of the work-inprogress? Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  59. 59. The truth is there is unlikely to be a recipe for this. The answer will be situational and context specific. As we can only have perfect knowledge from hindsight, the nature of this problem, means it is unlikely we can design a process to produce an optimal outcome. The GB Cycling team showed us this dramatically during the Olympics. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  60. 60. Instead we want our system to be adaptive and for it to evolve to produce the fittest possible process given current circumstances. And should circumstances change, for that evolutionary capability to be inherent to our system so that it can adapt again and again, optimizing the whole around the current economic challenges of our business and the risks we are managing. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  61. 61. Stack…      Lean Agile Scotland  1. Tribal Behavior isn't rational (as Adam Smith defined it) 2. If we are to be collectively smart we must address causes of delay 3. People (often) resist defined & managed change for emotional reasons 4. After 250 years of the Leviathan & the Invisible Hand, we need a new philosophy to guide the organization of human activity in the 21st Century 5. Human collaboration creates complexity from psychological and sociological influences. Results will change based on the starting conditions, all other things being equal 6. To cope adequately with complexity and risk we need a system that is adaptive and has an inherent evolutionary capability @agilemanager
  62. 62. Introduction to Kanban Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  63. 63. Kanban systems model workflow and limit WIP at each step, signaling available capacity, effectively creating a pull system for work orders. First used at Microsoft in 2005 Lean Agile Scotland White boards were introduced in 2007 to visualize workflow, signal capacity and show work orders flowing through the system @agilemanager
  64. 64. Boards typically visualize a workflow as columns (input) left to (output) right WIP Limit – regulates work at each stage in the process Pull Flow – from Engineering Ready to Release Ready Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  65. 65. Tickets on the board are “committed” Backlog items remain “options” Kanban systems defer commitment & enable dynamic prioritization when “pull” is signaled 5 4 Analysis Input Queue In Prog Done 3 4 Development Dev Ready In Prog Done Commitment point 2 Build Ready Test Release Ready Stage Prod. Lean Agile Scotland Flow 2 @agilemanager
  66. 66. Tickets on the board are committed. Items in the backlog are merely options 5 4 Analysis Input Queue In Prog Done 3 4 Development Dev Ready In Prog Done 2 Build Ready Test Release Ready Stage Prod. Lean Agile Scotland Pink tickets show blocking issues 2 @agilemanager
  67. 67. Pull criteria policies encourage a focus on quality & progress with imperfect information 5 4 Analysis Input Queue In Prog Done 4 Development Dev Ready In Prog Done Policies ~~~~~~ ~~~~ 2 2 Build Ready Test Policies ~~~~~~ ~~~~ Release Ready Stage Policies ~~~~~~ ~~~~ Prod. Lean Agile Scotland Policies ~~~~~~ ~~~~ 3 @agilemanager
  68. 68. Cost of delay function sketches provide a qualitative taxonomy to delineate classes of risk Function impact Expedite – white; critical and immediate cost of delay; can exceed other kanban limit (bumps other work); 1st priority - limit 1 time impact Fixed date – orange; cost of delay goes up significantly after deadline; Start early enough & dynamically prioritize to insure on-time delivery impact time time time Standard - yellow; cost of delay is shallow but accelerates before leveling out; provide a reasonable lead-time expectation Intangible – blue; cost of delay is not incurred until significantly later; important but lowest priority Lean Agile Scotland impact Colour @agilemanager
  69. 69. Allocate capacity across classes of service mapped against demand 5 4 Analysis Input Queue In Prog Done 3 4 Development Dev Ready In Prog Done 2 Build Ready 2 = 20 total Test Release Ready Allocation +1 = +5% 10 = 50% 6 = 30% Lean Agile Scotland 4 = 20% @agilemanager
  70. 70. Benefits of a Kanban System  There are predictable benefits from the merely complicated, mechanical nature of the system...      Deferred Commitment Reduced & more predictable lead times Improved quality from removing overburdening Improved quality due to focus Controlled quality due to explicit policies Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  71. 71. The Kanban Method  What I didn’t predict was that kanban systems, coupled with visualization would create a positive tension catalyzing process evolution Seeing (lack of) flow, understanding system level effects, enabled improvements in small evolutionary steps  While kanban systems dealt with merely complicated system dynamics, they enabled an evolutionary response to complex problems Lean Agile Scotland  @agilemanager
  72. 72. Definition of The Kanban Method Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  73. 73. Foundational Principles 1. 2. 3. 4. Lean Agile Scotland Start with what you do now Agree to pursue incremental, evolutionary change Initially, respect current roles, responsibilities & job titles Encourage acts of leadership at all levels in your organization @agilemanager
  74. 74. Lean Agile Scotland Kanban in Action tried to visually capture the principles @agilemanager
  75. 75. Core practices to enable evolutionary capability 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Lean Agile Scotland Visualize Limit Work-in-Progress Manage Flow Make Policies Explicit Implement Feedback Loops Improve Collaboratively (using models & scientific method) @agilemanager
  76. 76. System Thinking Approach to Introducing Kanban Understand Sources of Dissatisfaction 1.   From viewpoint of internal & external stakeholders Source of variability that cause dissatisfaction Demand and Capability Analysis 2.  (Ideally) By work item type & class of service Risk Analysis 3.  Identify dimensions to manage & taxonomies Model Workflow 4.  Understand the knowledge discovery process by type Kanban System Design Visualization Roll out Plan 5. 6. 7. Negotiation & shuttle diplomacy This process tends to be iterative Lean Agile Scotland  @agilemanager
  77. 77. Philosophy Behind The Kanban Method Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  78. 78. People resist change for emotional reasons. If resistance wasn't emotional, the logical, reasoning part of the brain could be persuaded with rational argument showing improved economics or risk management. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  79. 79. Emotional reasoning, in this sense, means the older parts of our brain that process sensory information and match patterns rather than the more recent, in evolutionary terms, logical reasoning part of our brains. The mistake is to assume humans behave based on logical reasoning. They don't when there is a dissonance between the newer logical, thinking part of our brain and our older, sensory, emotional brain, the emotional part always wins. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  80. 80. There is a psychological and sociological component to resistance to change: The psychology of the individual ego, self-image and how they derive self-esteem. The sociology of the workplace tribe, an individuals position in the tribal hierarchy, how they are respected and valued within the tribe, and the tribes own self-image and how it derives its tribal pride and sense of worth. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  81. 81. When a change is perceived to threaten the individual’s sense of self or the tribe then it will be resisted. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  82. 82. Kanban embraces the Zen influenced philosophy of Bruce Lee. Kanban should be like water! It should flow around the rock! The rock is emotional resistance to change. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  83. 83. Initial Kanban implementations should be designed to avoid emotional resistance by anticipating the self-image, and tribal memberships of the individuals involved. Kanban implementers predict how selfesteem and tribal worth are derived and avoid changing mechanisms that are core to the psychology and sociology of the individuals involved in the change. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  84. 84. The systems thinking approach to introducing Kanban is designed to identify what can be improved. The implementation should then be designed to introduce only the changes that will not meet with initial resistance while highlighting and raising awareness of possible future improvements. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  85. 85. How many psychologists does it take to change a lightbulb? Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  86. 86. Kanban's visual, tactile and collaborative nature acts to move the participants to conclude for themselves that changes need to be made! Lean Agile Scotland The lightbulb decides to change itself! @agilemanager
  87. 87. There are no teams or organizational structures defined in Kanban. Keeping existing organizational structures avoids emotional resistance. Changes to roles, team and organization structures must be self-motivated. Roles and organizational structures must evolve. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  88. 88. It turns out that the initial implementation of the kanban (pull) system can often be argued logically because it does not invoke an emotional reaction. Kanban does not threaten the self-image of individuals or the tribes they are members of. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  89. 89. As a result many of the predictable benefits from the mechanical side of implementing a kanban system are easily realized. Predictability improves Lead times are reduced Quality improves But often it is not enough. To cope with the uncertainties of demand and future risks, the organization needs a capability to evolve. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  90. 90. Kanban is not a software development lifecycle or project management process. It is a method for creating institutional evolutionary capability. WIP limits and visualization and a focus on flow provide the tension to catalyze discussion of improvement. Hence the cartoon on the cover of the book! Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  91. 91. Conclusions Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  92. 92. And so, to pop some things from our stack…  Kanban is an approach to institutional evolutionary capability. This enables an organization to better cope with complexity. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  93. 93. And so, to pop some things from our stack…   Lean Agile Scotland Kanban is an approach to institutional evolutionary capability. This enables an organization to better cope with complexity Whether a new method or process will be embraced and implemented successfully depends a lot on the starting conditions, and the psychological and sociological elements in play - just like planning to win the Gold medal in the Men's Road Race! As a result, every implementation has to be unique and the results from one implementation cannot fully predict the outcome elsewhere @agilemanager
  94. 94. And so, to pop some things from our stack…   Lean Agile Scotland Whether a new method or process will be embraced and implemented successfully depends a lot on the starting conditions, and the psychological and sociological elements in play - just like planning to win the Gold medal in the Men's Road Race! As a result, every implementation has to be unique and the results from one implementation cannot fully predict the outcome elsewhere The field of Behavioral Economics is emerging to incorporate human psychology (neuropsychology) and sociology into our models for economic behavior @agilemanager
  95. 95. And so, to pop some things from our stack…   The field of Behavioral Economics is emerging to incorporate human psychology (neuropsychology) and sociology into our models for economic behavior Defined and managed change on a large scale doesn't work because the people involved resist the changes. Change must be self-motivated and the organization must be willing to experiment, mutate and evolve to cope with changes in the market and the economic environment. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  96. 96. And so, to pop some things from our stack… Defined and managed change on a large scale doesn't work because the people involved resist the changes. Change must be self-motivated and the organization must be willing to experiment, mutate and evolve to cope with changes in the market and the economic environment.  We need a new philosophy to guide how we organize for the 21st Century economy. The dichotomy of the Invisible Hand versus the Leviathan no longer serves us well. Selforganization requires leadership and a guiding light by which to steer it. Controls need to define clear boundaries and be neatly aligned to the risks we are managing. Both the True North that guides self-organization and the rules that define the boundaries of empowerment must be capable of evolving as conditions change. Lean Agile Scotland  @agilemanager
  97. 97. How to be Collectively Smart? Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  98. 98. Waste has to be eliminated by a self-aware system that mutates and evolves using models to guide changes gradually improving shortening lead times improving flow efficiency minimizing cost of delay and managing business risk better. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  99. 99. The guiding light is faster delivery of work to produce the better economic results at a sustainable pace. We must visualize key risks such as cost of delay, customers to be served and the quantity and nature of their demand Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  100. 100. An institutional capability to reflect and adapt needs to be present and we need leadership that is tolerant to failure and encourages experimentation. Our organization should be constantly adapting and evolving. In doing so waste will be eliminated – not through grand design & managed change - but incrementally through evolutionary adaptation - self-motivated change, led from within and implemented without resistance. Lean Agile Scotland @agilemanager
  101. 101. A Decade of Influences Published June 2012 Lean Agile Scotland 115,000 words of anecdotes explaining my approach to leadership, management & change @agilemanager
  102. 102. Kanban Method Explained Published April 2010 Lean Agile Scotland A 72,000 word intro to the topic @agilemanager
  103. 103. Thank you! Lean Agile Scotland dja@djaa.com http://djaa.com/ @agilemanager
  104. 104. http://leankanbanuniversity.com http://www.limitedwipsociety.org Yahoo! Groups: kanbandev Yahoo! Groups: kanbanops
  105. 105. About… David Anderson is a thought leader in managing effective software teams. He leads a consulting, training, publishing and event planning business dedicated to developing, promoting and implementing sustainable evolutionary approaches for management of knowledge workers. He has 30 years experience in the high technology industry starting with computer games in the early 1980’s. He has led software teams delivering superior productivity and quality using innovative methods at large companies such as Sprint and Motorola. David is the author of three books. The latest is Lessons in Agile Management – on the Road to Kanban. 2010 saw publication of the best selling Kanban – Successful Evolutionary Change for your Technology Business. http://leankanbanuniversity.com Email: dja@djaa.com Twitter: agilemanager Lean Agile Scotland David is a founder of the Lean Kanban University, a business dedicated to assuring quality training in Lean and Kanban for knowledge work throughout the world. @agilemanager
  106. 106. German published January, 2011 Lean Agile Scotland Translation by Arne Roock & Henning Wolf of IT-Agile @agilemanager
  107. 107. Spanish published May 2011 Lean Agile Scotland Translated by Masa K Maeda, PhD @agilemanager
  108. 108. Kanban System Adoption Examples Globally USA McKesson Vanguard GoDaddy Xbox Motley Fool CityGrid Media Ultimate Software Constant Contact SEP REI Robert Bosch Chile LAN Mainland EU Ubuntu Xing BWin Brazil ASR BBVA Petrobras CESAR Phidelils O Globo Israel Amdocs Answers.com TypeMock China & HK Thomson-Reuters Nike Australia Lonely Planet Telstra New Zealand Ministry of Social Development Lean Agile Scotland Argentina Huddle ThomsonReuters UK BBC IPC Media Financial Times Microsoft Scandinavia Unibet Volvo Skania Spotify Ericsson @agilemanager
  109. 109. Kanban System Adoption by Industry  Media   Games   Vanguard, Motley Fool, Chase, ASR Software & Telecoms  Amdocs, Ultimate, Constant Contact, Phidelis, SEP, Huddle, CESAR, Ubuntu Public Sector  Ministry of Defence (Denmark), Ministry of Social Development (New Zealand) Lean Agile Scotland  Includes Robert Bosch, Volvo, Skania, Petrobras, Nike Finance & Insurance   Mostly small studios includes video arcade thru mobile games to online gambling such as Unibet & Bwin Manufacturing   Includes BBC, Sky, Lonely Planet, Time/Life, IPC, Mobile.de, O Globo, Financial Times, NBC Universal, Thomson-Reuters @agilemanager

×