Quarterly telecommunications observatory 2012 12 ENGLISH version


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Quarterly Telecommunications Observatory (updated December 31st, 2012)

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Quarterly telecommunications observatory 2012 12 ENGLISH version

  1. 1. Autorità per le garanzie nelle comunicazioniQuarterly Telecommunication Markets Observatory (*)- Updated to 31 December 2012 -(*) – Data provided by operators and elaborated by Agcom.
  2. 2. IndexFocus - " Top Five" Incumbent - competitive trends1. Fixed access lines (total)2. Fixed access lines (new entrants)3. Retail broadband access lines4. Mobile subscribers – customer base (excl. mvno)5. Mobile subscribers by customer/contract type (excl. Mvno)6. Mobile broadband7. Mobile virtual operators (MVNO)8. Mobile telephony: number portability
  3. 3. Focus - " Top Five" Incumbent - competitive trends0,010,020,030,040,050,060,070,0DeutscheTelekomTelefonica FranceTelecomTelecomItaliaBritishTelecom48,056,046,266,923,744,747,941,452,431,42006 1H12-3,3 - 8,1 -4,8 -14,5 +7,7010203040506070DeutscheTelekomTelefonica FranceTelecomTelecomItaliaBritishTelecom476758645948555248392006 2011+1 -12 -6 -16 -20Source : Digital Agenda scoreboard, http://scoreboard.lod2.eu/index.php?page=exportSource: Ofcom, International Communications Market Report 2012, pag. 248FixedbroadbandlinesMarket shares(%)Fixed voicecall volumesMarket shares(%) During 2006-1H2012 the difference between themarket shares of the major European incumbents inthe broadband access tend to shrink. Telecom Italy is the operator with the highest declinein market share (-14.5%), followed by Telefonica (-8,1) and France Telecom -4,8). British Telecom increased by 7.7 pp. Between 2006 and 2011, with the British Telecomexception, Telecom Italia is the incumbent with thebiggest decrease in the fixed network voice trafficmarket share (-16%). Telecom Italy market share (48%) is aligned with DT(up 1%), while is lower than France Telecom (52%)and Telefonica (55%) shares.
  4. 4. 8,0010,0012,0014,0016,0018,0020,0022,0024,004Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q1215,38 15,17 14,99 14,86 14,68 14,48 14,30 14,16 14,007,09 7,28 7,35 7,31 7,42 7,50 7,53 7,51 7,66Telecom Italia fixed access lines OLO access lines21,6622,4722,10TelecomItalia; 66,4Wind; 13,2Fastweb;7,3VodafoneItalia; 9,7BT Italia; 0,4Tiscali; 1,8Others; 1,21. Fixed access lines (total) (1) (2) 4Q20124Q2011(1) – Starting from present update, fixed network include WiMax lines. Data serie is in homegenous, consequently the market shares shown are not entirely consistent with previous updates.(2) Including Telecom Italia physical access, full unbundling (voice and data), Dsl Naked, WLR, Wimax and fiber lines.Lines[mln] Compared with December 2011, direct fixed access lines decreased by about450 thousands, with a slight acceleration compared to the decrease observedin 2011 (-360 thousand accesses). In the last twelve months, Telecom Italia’s market share further decreased by1.8% to 64,6%. The market position of Vodafone Group is stable on annual basis with a slightincrease (+0,2%) compared to last September. Wind has consolidated its market share on a yearly basis (+0.3% with a slightdecline (-0.1%) compared to September. Fastweb increases market share both on annual (+1,0%) and quarterly(+0,4%) basis.Source: Agcom evaluation on data provided by operatorsTelecomItalia; 64,6Wind; 13,5Fastweb;8,3VodafoneItalia; 9,7BT Italia; 0,3Tiscali; 1,8Others; 1,7
  5. 5. Wind39,4%BTItalia1,1%Fastweb21,9%Vodafone28,9%Tiscali5,2%Others3,5%Wind38,3%BTItalia1,0%Fastweb23,6%Vodafone27,3%Tiscali5,1%Others4,7%0,001,002,003,004,005,006,007,008,004Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q120,95 1,01 1,02 0,98 0,96 0,93 0,87 0,83 0,804,78 4,89 4,94 4,92 5,02 5,09 5,15 5,18 5,260,04 0,05 0,06 0,07 0,09 0,11 0,14 0,17 0,191,04 1,05 1,05 1,06 1,09 1,08 1,08 1,06 1,110,28 0,28 0,29 0,270,28 0,28 0,28 0,280,29Wholesale Line Rental Unbundling (voice, voice + data) (1) WiMax Nakeddsl Fiber7,09 7,42 7,652. Fixed access lines (new entrants) 4Q20124Q2011Lines[mln](1) – Including virtual LLU.Source: Agcom evaluation on data provided by operators On an annual basis accesses grew by about 230 thousand accesses (340,000 in2011). Given the growth of the lines Full Ull (1) (+240 thousand on annual basis) wasoffset by a decline in WLR access by some 160 thousand lines. On a quarterlybasis, the overall growth of approximately 140 thousand lines. In direct accesses distribution by operator, Wind positioned in first place (38,3%), isin decline compared both to last December (-1.1%) and to September (-1,0%). Grows, both on an annual and quarterly basis, the weight of Fastweb (respectively+1,7% and + 0,8%). Decrease, in both cases, of Vodafone market share (correspondingly -1.5% and-0.1%). The growth of WiMax lines, representing – with an increase of 110 thousandaccesses - just under half of the total OLO line increase on an annual basis, is thebasis of the increase in weight of "other actors" (+1, 2% on an annual basis). Linkem represents over 50% of the specific segment, which at y.e. exceed, overall,190 thousands subs. (2).(2) – Including Aria, Linkem, Mandarin e WaveMax
  6. 6. 8,009,0010,0011,0012,0013,0014,004Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q1212,77 12,96 13,01 13,04 13,13 13,16 13,15 13,14 13,170,33 0,35 0,37 0,37 0,38 0,41 0,44 0,47 0,51DSL Other technologies13,1013,51 13,683. Retail broadband access lines 4Q20124Q2011Lines[mln] YoY, broadband lines growth was about +160 thousands. Compared withSeptember, the customer base increased by some 60 thousands lines (1). Telecom Italia’s market share (51.4%) falls (-1.5% compared with the lastyear) to the benefit of Fastweb (+1,1%) and the smaller companies,represented largerly by WiMax operators (+0,7%). Compared with December 2011, Vodafone has experienced a slightsubscribers and market share reduction (-65 thousands and -0,6%,respectively). Avg. download speed increased: in the last year, lines with nominal speedequal to or greater than 2 Mbit/s increased from 86,5% to 88,5%.(1) Starting to the present Observatory update, data including also WiMax accesses. Data serie is in homogeneous termsSource: Agcom evaluation on data provided by operatorsTelecomItalia52,9%Wind15,9%Fastweb11,8%Tiscali3,7%VodafoneItalia12,5%Others3,2%TelecomItalia51,4%Wind16,3%Fastweb12,9%Tiscali3,6%VodafoneItalia11,9%Others3,9%
  7. 7. TelecomItalia34,9%Vodafone32,4%Wind22,7%3 Italia10,0%80,082,084,086,088,090,092,04Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q1290,60 90,89 91,13 91,60 92,39 92,60 92,35 92,56 92,784Q20124Q2011Lines[mln]4. Mobile subscribers – customer base (excl. Mvno, see page 9)Source: Agcom evaluation on data provided by operators YoY, the customer base has increased of 400 thousands and of some 200thousands from last september. In 2012, the number of residential lines decreased (-307 thousands), balanced bya growth of business lines (about +700 thousands). In the mean time, the number of prepaid lines decreased of 1,55 million, while thenumber of postpaid lines increased of about 2 million, showing that the expansionof postpaid customer base continues (see the following slide). YoY, Telecom Italia’s and Vodafone’s market shares decreased by 0,2 and 0,7%,H3G’s and Wind’s market shares grow up (+0.3% and +0,7%, respectively). Voice traffic (more than 137 billion minutes in 2012) increased by 3,8%. SMS sent(more than 96 billion) increased by some 7,5%.TelecomItalia34,7%Vodafone31,7%Wind23,4%3 Italia10,3%
  8. 8. TI32,7%Vod32,1%Wind26,9%"3"8,4%TI43,0%Vod29,9%Wind8,8%"3"18,3%TI59,2%Vod28,2%Wind5,8%"3"6,8%TI30,9%Vod32,2%Wind26,1%"3"10,8%0,0020,0040,0060,0080,004Q104Q114Q1214,29 15,96 17,9576,32 76,43 74,84Postpaidlines Prepaidlines0,0020,0040,0060,0080,004Q104Q114Q1210,9211,7112,4179,69 80,68 80,38Business lines Residential lines5. Mobile subscribers – by customer/contract type (excl. Mvno)ResidentialLines[mln]BusinessPrepaid PostpaidMarket share by contracts – 4Q2012 (%)Market share by customers – 4Q2012 (%)Customer type Contract typeContract type 80, 6% of active lines about the "prepaid“ (82,7%, in December 2011). In two years, mainly due to growth of smartphones and tablets, postpaid lines grew by 3,7millions and, correspondingly, the "prepaid" declined slightly less than 1,5 million lines. In the “prepaid” market Telecom Italy and Vodafone are both just under 33% while Wind isclose to 27%, an increase of about 1% compared to 2011. In the "postpaid" segment Telecom Italy has confirmed market leader with 43%, but wasdown by 2.4%, compared to December 2011 and by 5% vs end of 2010.Source: Agcom evaluation on data provided by operators(31,5)(32,9)(25,2)(10,4) (7,2)(5,9)(28,9)(58,0)(32,7)(32,6)(25,8)(8,9)(45,4)(15,0)(31,6)(8,1)(the corresponding values for December 2011 are shown​​ in brackets)Customer type The business customers (12,4 million in December) grew by about 700,000 lines on annualbasis, while at the same time the residential segment (80,4 million of sim at year end)declined by about 300,000 lines. The business customers weight increased by 0.7% (from 12,7 to 13,4% of the totalcustomer base). The first operator in the residential segment is Vodafone with 32.2% (32.9% in 2011),followed by Telecom and Wind. Telecom Italy, with 59.2% (58.0 in 2011), is widely leader in business segment.
  9. 9. 010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.0004Q11 4Q12192.254 251.202+30,7%6. Mobile broadband (1)Sim data traffic (*1000) Connect card (internet key) (*1000)Data traffic from the b.y. (terabyte) In December, SIMs with broadband data traffic exceeded 31,5millions (+17% compared with Dec. 2011). The dedicated "connect card" (the keys) reached about 8,6millions (+27,5% compared with end 2011). YoY, data traffic has grown by 30.7%.(1) As a result of a change in the methodologies used in data management by operators, the values are not consistent with the corresponding data in previous Observatory updates . Starting from present update, data included also​​Mvno mobile broadband,.05.00010.00015.00020.00025.00030.00035.0004Q11 4Q1226.97831.557+17,0%01.0002.0003.0004.0005.0006.0007.0008.0009.0004Q11 4Q126.7398.590+27,5%
  10. 10. 1,001,502,002,503,003,504,004Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q123,06 3,26 3,46 3,62 3,653,95 4,31 4,40 4,507. Mobile virtual operators (MVNO)Lines[*‘000]4Q20124Q2011 The growth of MVNO subscribers continues (+850 thousands in2012), total lines reached 4,5 millions (about 4.6% of the totalcustomer base). Poste Mobile’s market share is about 55% due to the integration ofmobile and postal services. It is worth noting Noverca performance,its customer base increased, during 2012, from 20 thousand to 130thousands subscribers. YoY, voice traffic and SMSs sent has increased by about 29% and60%, respectively.PosteMobile55,7%Fastweb14,8%Coop Italia7,7%DailyTelecom6,4%ErgMobile6,9%Others8,5%PosteMobile55,3%Fastweb15,0%Coop Italia7,2%DailyTelecom5,0%ErgMobile7,1%Others10,4%(1) – Starting from the present update, are included also Bip Mobile and Green ICN data
  11. 11. 0,05,010,015,020,025,030,035,040,045,050,04T10 1T11 2T11 3T11 4T11 1T12 2T12 3T12 4T1228,8 30,9 32,8 34,7 37,1 39,643,1 46,249,98. Mobile telephony: number portability4Q12 - Lines as donor (in the quarter)Lines[mln] In 3Q2012, the number of ported mobile lines reached, cumulatively, some 50millions. Mobile virtual operators were able to gain more than 1.3m net adds in the numberof lines, a slight decrease compared to September On annual basis, the net balance “donating-recipient" is negative for Telecom Italy(-490 thousand sim) and Vodafone (-420 thousand) and is positive for Wind (+185thousand), MVNOs (+278 thousand) but especially for H3G (+446 thousand) Correspondingly, on a quarterly basis the indicator improves only for Telecom Italy(from -353 to -118 thousand). H3G and Wind maintain, albeit reduced, a positivebalance. Vodafone worsens its position (already negative in September) while forthe first time the value is negative also for mvno.4Q12 - Lines as recipient (in the quarter)H3G7,6%TelecomItalia29,1%Vodafone31,8%Wind25,8%Mvno5,8%H3G12,3%TelecomItalia25,8%Vodafone29,3%Wind28,1%Mvno4,5%