Panorama macroeconômico brasileiro

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Panorama macroeconômico brasileiro, Sitación macroeconómica brasileña.

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Panorama macroeconômico brasileiro

  1. 1. Mr.Antonio Fernando G.Bessa Deputy Director DEREX Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs Brazilian Economy Overview
  2. 2. 2. Economic Highlights 3. Foreign Trade 4. Investments DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 1. Institutional .
  3. 3. Industry FIESP Federation of Industries of State of Sao Paulo Represents 131 sector business associations which stands for about 150,000 state and national firms CIESP Center of Industries of State of Sao Paulo 43 regional offices throughout the state which represents about 10,000 associated firms These entities work together in defense of the industry, providing services and support to their associated institutions and firms. DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs IRS Roberto Simonsen Institute Think tank specialized in industrial issues. It’s also responsible for the coordination of Superior Council
  4. 4. Education SESI Industrial Social Service Provides industrial employee’s families with social services, mainly education, culture, sports and health SENAI Industrial Technical Schools Promotes professional education through technical schools providing qualified workforce to the industry 220 basic schools and more than 273,000 children, youth, adults and elderly people 157 technical schools and more than 1 million students registrations per year DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs
  5. 5. DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs FIESP Structure PRESIDENCY SUPERIOR COUNCILS Guidelines for departments DEPARTMENTS Trade and Foreign Affairs Agribusiness Union and Labor Issues Competitiveness and Technology Infrastructure and Energy Regional Action Environment Small and Medium Companies Research and Economic Studies Legal Division Defense Industry Construction Industry
  6. 6. 1.015 379 700 Brazil SãoPaulo State Fiesp 100% 37% 69% Sao Paulo State and FIESP’s representativeness in the Brazilian Economy Main Industrial Sectors Represented by FIESP Aircraft Food Fuels Oil Refinery Electric Energy Ethanol Fertilizer and Animal Food Machinery Metallurgy Paper and Cellulose Chemical Products Oil and Gas Textiles and Apparel Vehicles and auto parts Industrial GDP (US$ Billions) 33% of Total GDP (*) US$ 709 bi 24% of Total Exports (**) US$ 59.9 bi 57% of Brazil´s Industrialized Exports (**) US$ 53.3 bi SP State Share in Brazil’s GDP and Exports (*)2010, latest effective figure available (**)2012
  7. 7. Sao Paulo State and FIESP’s representativeness in Brazilian Economy 2. Economic Highlights 3. Foreign Trade 4. Investments
  8. 8. 5.7 3.2 4.0 6.1 5.2 -0.3 7.5 2.7 0.9 3.0 3.5 3.5 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015* GDP average growth (%YoY) Average 3.5% Average 4.0% Brazil´s GDP Growth for the next 3 years is projected to be around 3,6%. DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs Note: (*) Forecast: BCB/Focus, Apr, 12th, 2013 Source: IBGE Compilation : FIESP
  9. 9. 118.1 131.0 103.8 124.3 131.1 128.8 125.5 feb-07 jun-07 oct-07 feb-08 jun-08 oct-08 feb-09 jun-09 oct-09 feb-10 jun-10 oct-10 feb-11 jun-11 oct-11 feb-12 jun-12 oct-12 feb-13 Industrial Production Index (02=100) seasonally adjusted Despite the incentives adopted by the Government, the industrial production fell 2,7% in 2012 DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs Source: IBGE Compilation : FIESP
  10. 10. In 2012, vehicle production fell 1.8%. Production of cars grew with IPI reduction, but the truck’s production decreased… DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs Source: ANFAVEA Compilation : FIESP -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Production of vehicles Vehicles (1000 units) % YoY
  11. 11. The new light vehicle sales had been boosted by incentives granted by the Government in 2012 Source: ANFAVEA Compilation : FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Production of vehicles by category Vehicles production Light vehicles Trucks Buses 1,000 units % YoY
  12. 12. Retail sales growth remains strong with an increase of 8.4% in 2012 Source: BCB Compilation : FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 72.5 76.6 82.2 92.4 98.7 106.1 110.2 feb-07 jun-07 oct-07 feb-08 jun-08 oct-08 feb-09 jun-09 oct-09 feb-10 jun-10 oct-10 feb-11 jun-11 oct-11 feb-12 jun-12 oct-12 feb-13 Retail Sales Index (11=100) seasonally adjusted
  13. 13. Strong demand versus flat supply... Note: (¹) Index number, seasonally adjusted Source: IBGE, Macrodados Compilation : FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 feb-07 jun-07 oct-07 feb-08 jun-08 oct-08 feb-09 jun-09 oct-09 feb-10 jun-10 oct-10 feb-11 jun-11 oct-11 feb-12 jun-12 oct-12 feb-13 Industrial Production versus Retail Sales (jan/07=100)¹ Industrial Production Retail Sales Industrial production fell 2.7% in 2012 Retail sales increased 8.4% in 2012
  14. 14. ...consistent credit expansion in Brazil, but... Note: (*) Preliminary data Source: BCB Compilation : FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 35,0 40,0 45,0 50,0 55,0 0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* Credit Expansion Loans Loans % GDP USD bn %
  15. 15. credit over GDP is still low compared to other economies Source: World Bank Compilation : FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 206% 194% 187% 173% 135% 122% 116% 71% 65% 61% 55% 55% 51% 26% 17% Credit (% of GDP) - Selected Economies
  16. 16. The Brazilian tax burden is very high. Partners with similar ratio have a per capita GDP more than three times higher DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs Source: IBGE, IMF, IMD, RFB Compilation: DECOMTEC/FIESP Tax burden x per capita GDP Taxburden(%ofGDP) Per capita GDP (PPP)
  17. 17. In April 2012 public banks started to reduce lending rate boosting competition. This brought pressure on lending spreads, which began a declining trend. Source: BCB Compilation : FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 feb-11 may-11 aug-11 nov-11 feb-12 may-12 aug-12 nov-12 feb-13 Financial System Spread Total Individuals Companies Public banks lending rate reduction
  18. 18. Brazilian Monetary Authority promoted an aggressive monetary expansion… Note: The Brazilian Central Bank increased the SELIC rate to 7.50% on April, 18th, 2013 Source: BCB, IBGE Compilation : FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 10.50% 7.25% 6.2% 5.2% 4.9% 5.2% 5.5% 5.8% 6.3% 6.59% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% jan-12 mar-12 may-12 jul-12 sep-12 nov-12 jan-13 mar-13 Monetary Policy Consumer prices (IPCA): YoY Policy Rate (SELIC)
  19. 19. Inflation remains within the bounds set by the government Source: Brazilian Central Bank and the IMF Compilation: FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 8.6% 5.8% 7.4% 11.9% 9.0% 7.4% 5.6% 3.1% 4.4% 5.8% 4.2% 5.8% 6.3% 5.7% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Inflation (IPCA YoY) IPCAinflation Target Upper/lowerbounds
  20. 20. …several stimulus policies are in progress in response to the ongoing international crisis environment. Stimulus policy DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 1) Expansive monetary policy 2) Tax exemption for dynamic sectors (IPI) 3) Fiscal and credit stimulus for Industry “Brasil Maior” 4) “PAC equipamentos”: anticipation of government purchases 5) Reduction in energy costs Automobile White line Building material For consumers of medium and large (in the case of industries), the value can reach 32%.
  21. 21. Unemployment down in Brazil... Source: IBGE Compilation : FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 5.5 6.2 5.9 5.4 5.4 4.6 5.4 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 jan-12 mar-12 may-12 jul-12 sep-12 nov-12 jan-13 Unemployment Rate - seasonally adjusted (% p.m)
  22. 22. Source: IBGE Development: FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs Brazilian population is ageing. More than 47% is above 30 years old. 7.03 7.62 8.73 8.56 8.63 8.46 14.49 12.01 8.74 5.26 3.89 6.78 7.34 8.44 8.43 8.61 8.64 15.15 12.83 9.68 6.10 5.34 0-4 years old 5-9 years old 10-14 years old 15-19 years old 20-24 years old 25-29 years old 30-39 years old 40-49 years old 50-59 years old 60-69 years old 70-over Demographic composition (Millionpersons) Women Men
  23. 23. Around 30 million people have entered the middle class from 2003 to 2009. DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs Note: (*) Forecast: CPS/FGV. Last effective data: 2009 Source: CPS/FGV Compilation : FIESP Class A/B more than US$ 2,790; Class C between US$ 648 – 2,790; Class D: between US$ 467 – 648. Class E: up to US$ 467; Note: monthly per capita income per households and class, in prices of 2009. Social Class Mobility (% of total population and millions of people) 2003 2009 2014* 28% 27% 37% 8% 13 49 47 66 15% 24% 50% 11% 29 44 95 20 8% 20% 56% 16% Class A/ B Class C Class D Class E16 40 113 31
  24. 24. 3. Foreign Trade 4. Investments DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs
  25. 25. Trade flow follows a positive trend. In 2011, exports and imports reached highest historical level. Forecast: FIESP *YTD until march DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* Brazilian Trade Balance Exports Imports Balance USD bn USD bn Source: MDIC Compilation : FIESP
  26. 26. Since 2008, commodities¹ represents the most part of Brazilian exports DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs Note: (¹) Commodities represents primary products and semimanufactured goods Source: MDIC Compilation : FIESP 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Brazilian exports composition (% of total) Commodities Non-Commodities
  27. 27. Asia is Brazil´s number 1 trade partner... DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs Source: MDIC Compilation : FIESP Trade Balance: share by trade partner (2012) United States European Union Latin America Asia Others
  28. 28. Brazilian Exports USD bn ∆ % (2012 x 2011) Brazilian Imports USD mn ∆ % (2012 x 2011) 1º China 41,2 -7,0% China 34,2 4,4% 2º USA 26,7 3,5% USA 32,4 -4,7% 3º Argentina 18,0 -20,7% Argentina 16,4 -2,7% 4º Netherlands* 15,0 10,3% Germany 14,2 -6,6% 5º Japan 8,0 -16,0% South Korea 9,1 -9,9% Trade balance by destinations and origins (2012) Top 5 destinations and origins of Brazilian exports and imports. Note: (*) Main logistical hub of Europe Source: MDIC Compilation : FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs
  29. 29. Brazilian Exports USD mn Brazilian Imports USD mn Iron ores and concentrates 30.989 Petroleum, crude 20.306 Petroleum, crude 13.406 Soybeans, whether or not broken 17.455 Natural gas 3.336 Chicken 6.732 Coal, whether or powder, unagglomerated 3.006 Soybean bran 6.595 Wheat grains 1.757 Rubber, in natura 662 Main BASIC products (2012) Main primary products exports and imports... Source: MDIC Compilation : FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs
  30. 30. Brazilian Exports USD mn Brazilian Imports USD mn Airplanes 4.747 Spare parts for vehicles 3.778 Spare parts for vehicles 6.771 Passenger car 3.725 Passenger car 9.567 Refined sugar 2.814 Fuel oils 6.712 Ethyl alcohol 2.186 Medicines 6.114 Electronic integrated circuits 4.249 Main MANUFACTURED products (2012) ...main manufactured products exports and imports. Source: MDIC Compilation : FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs
  31. 31. 4. Investments DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs
  32. 32. 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Investment Inflow (USD mn) International Reserves Foreign Direct Investiment Forecast* BCB/Focus US$ 60 bn Consistent expansion of Foreign Direct Investment and International Reserves. FDI increased 110% from 2009 to 2012 in Brazil... Note: (*) Forecast: BCB/Focus, Apr, 12th, 2013 Source: BCB Compilation : FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs
  33. 33. TOP 10 origins of direct investment in Brazil DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs Source: BCB Development: FIESP FDI in Brazil: share by country (2012) Country US$ Mil Share United States 12,310 20.3% Netherlands* 12,213 20.2% Luxembourg 5,965 9.9% Switzerland 4,333 7.2% Spain 2,523 4.2% France 2,155 3.6% Chile 2,013 3.3% United Kingdom 1,953 3.2% Canada 1,950 3.2% Japan 1,471 2.4% * Netherlands is an investment hub
  34. 34. Brazil leads agribusiness production and exports globally for several products … Source: USDA (apr/2013) and DEAGRO – FIESP Compilation : FIESP DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 1st 1st 1st 1st 2nd 1st 2nd 4th 81% 45% 35% 28% 19% 31% 22% 9% 1st 1st 3rd 1st 2nd 2nd 3rd 4th 57% 22% 20% 37% 17% 24% 9% 3% ExportsProduction Brazil | Leadership in World Ranking (2012/13) Orange Juice Sugar Broiler Coffee Beef Soy Complex Corn Pork
  35. 35. DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs Note: (*) Estimative Source: Conab (Apr/2013) and DEAGRO - FIESP. Compilation : FIESP 1.5 3.5 37% 217% Area (million ha): Production (million tons): 38 52 58 184 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13* Productivity (tons/ha):+127% Brazil | Production of grains Grains: cotton, peanuts, rice, oats, canola, rye, barley, beans, sunflower, castor beans, corn, soybeans, sorghum, wheat and triticale.
  36. 36. Brazil stands out for the high share of renewable energy in its energy matrix than the BRICS and G7 countries... DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 2.8 3.2 3.3 5.4 7.7 8.7 9.7 10.0 11.9 16.9 26.1 45.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Russia United Kingdom Japan United States France Germany Italy South Africa China Canada India Brazil Renewable Energy Souces (% of energy supply) Source: Brazilian Ministry of Finance, Apr 2012 Economic Outlook Report. Compilation : FIESP
  37. 37. Fifteen biggest Projects in the World’s Energy Sector* (USD bn) DEREX | Department of Trade and Foreign Affairs 2.5 3.0 4.2 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 8.2 10.0 10.2 12.0 12.6 16.0 18.2 Brazil Colombia India Brazil China Canada Canada China Brazil Brazil China USA Brazil Brazil China Pescadero Hydroelectric Angra 3 Nuclear Station Jirau Hydroelectric (RO) Mundra Thermoelectric Xiangjiaba Hydroelectric Romaine Hydroelectric Pace River Hydroelectric Xiluodu Hydroelectric Santo Antônio Hydroelectric (RO) Yangjiang Nuclear Station Green Power Express Transmission Belo Monte Hydroelectric (PA) São Luiz do Tapajós Hydroelectric (PA) Jiuquan Eolic Platform Teles Pires Hydroelectric (MT-PA) Note: (*) Final stage or in progress Source: Brazilian Ministry of Finance, Apr 2012 Economic Outlook Report. Compilation : FIESP

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