Speaker 2 molua africa-adapt_presentation_addis_2011

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Speaker 2 molua africa-adapt_presentation_addis_2011

  1. 1. Linking Policy to Practice Ernest L. Molua Agro-Environmental Economist (University of Buea, Cameroon) Redefining Africa's Agrarian Development Policies in the Face of Climate Change Challenge: AfricaAdapt Climate Change Symposium 2011, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  2. 2. Presentation Outline <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Rural & Agrarian Development Challenge </li></ul><ul><li>Climate Change Challenge </li></ul><ul><li>Wither or Weather the storm? </li></ul><ul><li>New Perspectives & Policy Outcomes </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusion </li></ul>
  3. 3. Introduction… <ul><li>Agricultural productivity growth in Africa during the past 40 years has not kept pace with population growth. </li></ul><ul><li>Cereal yields in the region have stagnated at about 1 metric ton per hectare over this period, while in East Asia cereal yields increased more than fourfold. </li></ul><ul><li>The per capita growth rate of agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) in Africa was negative during the 1980s and 1990s, though improvements have been noted since 2000. </li></ul>
  4. 5. Introduction… <ul><li>Climate change is one stress among many now affecting agro-ecosystems and the human beings that depend on them. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Climate change affect agriculture through bio-physical alterations in the agro-ecosystem and through social and economic changes at farm, region, nation, and global scales. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The challenge now is to create a framework for accommodating climate change impacts, adaptation strategies and capacity, and vulnerabilities, in the context of multiple stresses. </li></ul>
  5. 6. Aims & Rationale <ul><li>This discourse aims to reflect on the importance of linking policy making to practical effort on the ground that highlight the roles of institutional and governance arrangements in influencing livelihoods, power and politics to promoting adaptation to climate change. </li></ul>
  6. 7. 2. Rural Agrarian Development Challenge <ul><li>Post independence African states have employed diverse actions and initiatives taken to improve the standard of living in non-Urban neighbourhoods, countryside, and remote villages </li></ul><ul><ul><li>rural development intervention, aimed at social and economic development, involved direct provision of amenities to improve living conditions or to enhance production. </li></ul></ul>
  7. 8. … Rural Agrarian Development Challenge…. <ul><li>Challenges: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Developing an integrated vision on agriculture and development </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Strengthening agricultural sector governance </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Improving rural productivity </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Accessing remunerative markets </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Managing the natural resource base in a sustainable manner </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reducing Vulnerabilities </li></ul></ul></ul>
  8. 9. … Rural Agrarian Development… <ul><li>At the continental level, even NEPAD acknowledges that Agriculture & Rural Development is the key sector in overall development agenda: </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Land and water management (pillar 1) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Rural infrastructure and market access (pillar 2) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing food supply and reducing hunger (pillar 3) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Agricultural research, technology dissemination and adoption (pillar 4) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Cross cutting issues (knowledge) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sustainable development of livestock, fisheries and forestry </li></ul></ul></ul>
  9. 10. Climate Influence Water level Structure Beach state Overtop Breach Flood Waves Flood event Extreme wave climate Beach morphology Extreme water level climate Changes to structure Mean water level Surges Land level Tides Rainfall, freeze/thaw, wave damage, animal activity, vegetation ‘ Everyday’ wave climate Wind speed direction Global temperature Atmospheric pressure Climate
  10. 11. 3. Climate Change Challenge
  11. 12. Climate Change …
  12. 13. Climate Change … Source: Feddema and Freire (2001.) GCM Predictions
  13. 14. <ul><li>high dependence on agriculture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>contributes approximately 30% of GDP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>70-80% employment opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><li>low investment </li></ul><ul><li>limited arable land </li></ul><ul><li>reduction in crop yields: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>high mean temperatures; variable climate (precipitation) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>limited surface water availability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>poor soil quality </li></ul></ul><ul><li>force marginal areas out of agricultural production </li></ul><ul><li>increase stress on other fertile areas </li></ul>Africa’s Vulnerability to Climate Change
  14. 15. Reduction in the Area of Lake Chad 25000 km 2 To 1350 km 2 from reduced rain and irrigation The Challenge…
  15. 16. Climate Change Challenge Energy Demand Energy Supply Emissions Sequestration Climate Change Climate Variability Economic and Social Issues and Development Scenarios Scenarios Impacts Adaptation -ve Now, So what? Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Policy Risk Analysis Forecast Models Options Appraisal Policy Analysis Uncertainty Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Evaluation Uncertainty Uncertainty Uncertainty Uncertainty Uncertainty
  16. 17. Integrated actions Economic growth Sustainable environments Social equity 4. Wither or weather the Storm…?
  17. 18. A relational strategy... Wither or weather…?
  18. 19. Integration transect Wither or weather…?
  19. 20. <ul><li>Global </li></ul>- Need for integrated action Regional Local sectoral agriculture Fully integrated Global Warming water coastal health Drought Risk Coastal Risk Flood Risk Epidemic Risk wetter drier
  20. 21. 5. New Perspectives for Rural and Agrarian Development
  21. 22. Components of full-scale Policy Containment (Weyant et al., IPCC, 1996) Atmospheric Chemistry Ocean Carbon Cycle Atmospheric Composition Climate <ul><li>Ocean </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Sea level </li></ul>Climate & Sea Level Agriculture, Livestock & Forestry Energy System Other Human Systems Coastal System Human Systems Crops & Forests Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Unmanaged Ecosystems Hydrology Ecosystems
  22. 23. <ul><li>Identification of the most vulnerable groups; articulate unique local vulnerabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Identification of locally-relevant resilience-building options </li></ul><ul><li>Enhanced micro- and macro-level enabling conditions for adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>Built local adaptation awareness and engagement of local stakeholders (potential adaptation project implementers) </li></ul>Expected Policy Outcomes … New Perspectives & Policy Outcomes
  23. 24. Climate Change Policy Decision Making Framework Climate change issue Climate change application Adaptation strategies Climate change research, monitoring Climate change policy Socio-economic scenarios Climate change scenarios Impact assessment Climate change policy Identify problem Implement decision Establish criteria for decision-making Monitor Risk assessment Options appraisal Identify options Vulnerability assessment Problem defined correctly ? Data information collection Yes Yes No No Make decision Objectives met ? 6. Way Forward…..& Conclusion

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