Quick Water: Update on the water related indicators for sustainable crop-livestock intensification planning in Ethiopia ‘early win’ project
Quick Water: Update on the water related indicatorsfor sustainable crop-livestock intensification planning in Ethiopia ‘early win’ project Charlotte MacAlister (IWMI) Africa Rising Quick Water Early Win Project Final Workshop, Addis Ababa, 14 September 2012
• Introduction to Africa Rising• Introduction to Quick Water approach: scope and objectives• Methodology for development of intensification trajectories in Ethiopia• Ethiopian context: development and intensification planning and policy background from food for work/MERIT to FEWsnet• Selection of trajectories and indicators for Ethiopia• Roundtable discussion and feedback• Mapping trajectories-indicators and development of toolbox• Demonstration of tool• Roundtable testing of toolbox• Feedback and future development
Management Structure Program Research Framework Program Coordination Team Task Force (IITA, ILRI, IFPRI, USAID) Information/data Systems Team Communications Team (IFPRI) (ILRI, USAID)West Africa Project Ethiopian Highlands Project E&SA ProjectSteering Committee Steering Committee (ILRI) Steering Committee (IITA) (IITA) FY2012 Activities 1. Program design 2. Quick Win projects
Africa RISINGProgram Purpose and ObjectivesProvide pathways out of hunger and poverty for small holder families,particularly for women and children, through sustainably intensified farmingsystems that sufficiently improve food, nutrition, and income security andconserve or enhance the natural resource base.• Identify demand-driven sustainable intensification options that are socially acceptable, economically feasible, and environmentally sound• Combine and adapt these options to address constraints and exploit opportunities.• Evaluate their effectiveness at multiple scales.• Catalyze ongoing sustainable farm intensification.
Africa RISINGProgram Outcomes • Whole farm productivity • Natural resource management • Connect to markets & input suppliers • Nutrition and poverty, especially women and children • Economic & environmental resilience
Africa RISINGBeyond tradeoffs?• Increase above- and below-ground biomass to improve soil health & system productivity (e.g., fertilizer trees, legumes, N/P fertilization)• Diversification (crop & enterprise) for greater resilience, productivity, and nutrition• Integrating livestock and mechanization into conservation agriculture• Improve water productivity to reduce risk & enhance investment
Africa RISING Quick Wins in the Ethiopian Highlands:• Improving the evidence for targeting agricultural management interventions in Ethiopia• Targeting research design for technology integration at farm scale• Sustainable tree-crop-livestock intensification as a pillar for the Ethiopian climate resilient green economy• Regionalizing fertilizer rate recommendation for wheat-teff production systems• Fodder and feed as a key opportunity for driving sustainable intensification of crop-livestock systems• Improving productivity and rural livelihoods of smallholder farmers in the Bale highlands by integrating pulses in crop-livestock production systems
Why Agricultural Intensification in Ethiopia? 6 5 4 3T/ha 2 1 0 Malawi Ethiopia Nigeria Uganda Mali Mozambique Average national yield Average yield from on-farm demonstration
Objective: to provide a tool which can be used to support the spatialtargeting of agricultural intensification practices to areas where thebiophysical and livelihood conditions are likely to sustain long termdevelopment. Water is the entry point.Project scope and limitations: proof of concept/demonstration of what ispossible; short term project with limited time/resourcesTeam: Economist/policy – Gebre; Crop specialist – Teklu; Livestock – Amare;Water – Charlotte; Spatial – Catherine/Yenenesh/An/AbisalomProcess: identification of trajectories and indicators; consultation with lineagencies at regional level– feedback on bothDevelopment of simple tool which produces national maps of selectedtrajectories and targets
Some key challenges to making intensification sustainable:• Do agricultural intensification initiatives account for water centered issues?• Is there consistency across different initiatives / policies locally and nationally?• Are the indicators for agricultural intensification planning strategies based on local and global experience?• Are ongoing intensification efforts embedded in the livelihood of local communities?
Identifying Development Trajectories for Ethiopia: Principles
Identifying Development Trajectories for Ethiopia: Process
Identifying Development Trajectories for Ethiopia: Process
Global Development of Land Use PlanningApproaches Key indicators CommentsLand capability Soil, landscape, land use/land cover, hydrology, Lacks social & environmentalassessment climate dimensionsAgro-ecological Mainly climatic parameters & associatedzones agricultural practicesLand suitability Land cover, climate, soil, topography, land uses, Target certain use typesanalysis distance to village, streams & springs, cost-benefit analysisLand suitability Based on geography, production & markets, i.e. Includes some social dimensions& livelihood includes livelihood assets & land suitabilityzoningVulnerability & Indicators related to exposure, sensitivity & Similar to land suitability &resilience to adaptive capacity livelihood but incorporates globalclimate change CC phenomenaDevelopment Agricultural potential, access to markets, Includes socio-economicdomains population density indicators; Targeting broad, generic development strategies
Identifying Development Trajectories for Ethiopia: Process
Introduction:• The history of planned agricultural development in Ethiopia goes back to the late 19th century with the introduction of agricultural innovation systems of better farming practices and new tree species.• Since then, agricultural modernization undergone several stages with some disruptions (such as the Italian occupation).• During the 1960s, the modernization process was mainly based on elites’ (landlord) commercial farms followed by the command economy that discouraged private investment during the 1970s and 1980s.• Following the change of government in 1991, most strategies focused on the balance between poverty reduction, economic development and equity.• As stipulated in the PASDEP, the agricultural development strategy revolves around the intensification of marketable farm products.• In line with the development strategies, different programs and projects have been initiated which some of them are reviewed as follows.
MERET: Land Regeneration In Ethiopia• Response to the drought and famine of 1973/74 in the northern part of the country.• Gradually shifted to development program with the objective of linking short-term food assistance with long-term development opportunities and sustainable livelihoods.• Supports more than 50 activities and technical packages implemented in chronically food-insecure areas• Participants are from food-insecure households.• The project provides opportunities through long-term food security measures, but is limited to a specified range of livelihood systems.
Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Developmentto End Poverty - PASDEP (1)Main objectives of PASDEP: • Accelerate the transformation of the subsistence smallholder agriculture. • Increased productivity and share of marketed production. • Support to pro-poor basic agriculture within the framework of the national food security program. • Smallholder capacity building through training, development and adoption of a high yielding technology.
PASDEP (2)• Strengthened agricultural research and extension service delivery mechanisms• Promotion of increased diversification of agriculture through high value added commodities• Promotion of commercialization of agriculture and establishment of a marketing system• Development of small-scale irrigation and water harvesting technologies and sustainable use/management of natural resources.
PASDEP (3)Recognized three main agro-ecological zones based on rainfall, land type andaltitude to respond to the particular conditions:Zone 1: High rainfall areas • Efficient utilization of available rainwater for improved agricultural production with a special emphasis on high value crops for export. • Natural resources conservation, agro-forestry and livestock development.Zone 2: Moisture stress areas • Food security measures and increased off-farm income opportunities. • Soil and water conservation livestock resources development (small ruminants) and small-scale irrigation.Zone 3: Pastoral areas • Livestock production and marketing was given importance.
Agricultural Growth Program (AGP)• Food security and poverty reduction remains at the heart of agriculture and water resources development.• Gradual shift to high-value crops, promoting niche high-value export crops.• Facilitates the commercialization of agriculture where it is feasible .• Integrates farmers with both local and global markets.• Although AGP uses relatively comprehensive indicators (both bio-physical and socio-economic), focus is given to selected high-potential areas.
Sustainable Land Management (SLM)• Parallel to the AGP, the Sustainable Land Management (SLM) program was crafted to ensure sustainability of the natural resource base focusing on the high potential less degraded areas.• Unlike the MERET project that operates in degraded and food insecure areas, SLM targets the food secured and less degraded areas, but food security is still the major objective
Growth CorridorsRegional focus, based largely on resource endowment.For example: • Tigray Region has delineated the Raya Valley-Humera lowland growth corridors based on their ground and surface water potentials. • Oromia regional state acknowledge that the lowland parts of the region are vulnerable to recurrent droughts but supposed to have sufficient surface/ground water and good development potential . • Amhara followed different approach to classify the region into six growth corridors/poles (namely Central, Eastern, North-West, South-West, Tana- Beles and Tekeze catchments) . • In general the growth corridor approach was based on water and water based investment potentials.
AgWater Solutions Project• Water as the entry point.• Addresses pro-poor needs rather than on the development of potentially suitable areas/resources.• Different people in different places have different needs.• Demand for investment in water likened to availability of water and needs.• Livelihood mapping was essentially based on three criteria, hence it is likely to reach at different livelihood settings if other criteria are considered.
Gap Analysis (1)The gap analysis is based on the following principles:• Whether agricultural intensification initiatives in Ethiopia are planned with the perception of water centered problems and sustainable intensification trajectories• Whether there is consistencies across different initiatives in terms of indicators used to plan and monitor the intensification process and paths to make the exchange of information between projects simpler• Whether these indicators for agricultural intensification planning and post implementation monitoring are drawn based on global experiences• Whether the ongoing efforts of intensification embedded the livelihood of local community into agricultural intensification process.
Gap Analysis (2)• Almost all programs and projects have targeted agricultural production and poverty reduction.• Water as entry point has been given due emphasis in all projects/programs• They lack consistency in terms of livelihood systems.• PASDEP: indicators used to characterize livelihood zones were mainly bio- physical characteristics with little consideration to socio-economic characteristics.• PASDEP and Agwater solution project were more comprehensive to address all production/livelihood systems• Livestock as livelihood system did not come bold except in PASDEP
Gap Analysis (3)In terms of trajectories: • MERET project targets degraded and chronically food insecure areas where soil and water conservation is the main intervention. • AGP aims to transform the agricultural sector from subsistance to surplus production. • AGP overlooks the individual potential of different areas given a limited investment capacity implying that priority must be given to high return investments. • Unlike MERET, SLM targets less fragile areas. • AgWater Solutions project identified different trajectories based on which of the 17 livelihood systems were suggested.
Identifying Development Trajectories for Ethiopia: Process
Description of the selected trajectories and key indicators: 1-4Trajectories Description Some key indicatorsIntegrated Natural Resources Soil erosion and nutrient depletion Soil erosion rate and extent ofConservation based crop- is the major focus area affectedlivestock systems Crop, livestock and trees are Human and livestock populationintensification system components with a number of sub trajectoriesSmall-Scale Irrigation Based Highly populated area with access Potential suitable areasCrop-Livestock Intensification to surface or ground water for Market access irrigation with access to marketLarge-Scale Irrigation Based Areas with large irrigable land Potential suitable areasCrop-Livestock Intensification (>3000 hectares), with high value Market access and roads commercial or industrial crops, where crops and livestock are major componentsAgro-Pastoral Rainfed Based Receives sufficient rainfall, soil is Amount of rainfall, human andCrop-Livestock Intensification relatively deep and fertile, crop, livestock population, land use livestock and trees are major land cover components
Description of the selected trajectories and key indicators: 5-8Trajectories Description Some key indicatorsPastoral Livestock Based Livestock are the major components Aridity index, LGP, availability ofIntensification where feed, water, veterinary surface water services and market are major issues Human and livestock populationPeri-Urban Dairy Based Crop- Dairy, fattening and vegetable Access to marketLivestock Intensification farming on small plots are the major components; poultry may also be integratedVertisol Management Based Water logged vertisol areas receiving Area covered by vertisols andIntensification high rainfall, especially where annual precipitation temperature is mild to induce high evaporation. Crop and livestock are both major components.Rainfed commercial farming Extensive arable land sparsely Rainfall, human populationintensification in crop- populated and receiving sufficient density, and land use land coverlivestock systems rainfall, where commercial/high value (protected areas) and industrial crops are suitable
Description and reason for selection of indicators / proxiesTrajectory Indicator / proxy Simplified reason for selectionSoil & water conservation erosion rate Major process of land degradationin crop livestock systems population density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demand livestock density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demandSmall-medium scale irrigable area OR Area suitable for irrigation (potential for small/ medium)irrigation in crop livestock presence of shallow ground water (15-20m) Based on geological datasystems protected forest area Avoid protected forest areas access to market Necessary for sale of cash crop and access to inputsRainfed smallholder minimum annual rainfall Sufficient rainfall presentintensification in crop- maximum annual rainfall Sufficient rainfall presentlivestock systems or agro- protected forest area Avoid protected forest areaspastoralist systems population density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demandLarge scale irrigation potential large scale irrigation Area suitable for large scale irrigation (>3000ha) all-weather roads Necessary for sale of cash crop and access to inputsLivestock based minimum aridity index Not suitable for cropintensification maximum aridity index Not suitable for crop population density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demand livestock density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demand Difference: current & potential capacity Difference between current stocking rate and potential capacityPeri-urban dairy access to market OR Necessary for sale of milk Addis neighbourhood Largest milk market potentialVertisol management Vertisol / soil map Vertisol area present minimum annual rainfall Amount of rainfall above which waterlogging occursRainfed commercial minimum annual rainfall Sufficient rainfall presentfarming intensification in maximum annual rainfall Sufficient rainfall presentcrop-livestock /agro- protected forest area Avoid protected forest areaspastoralist systems population density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demand
Background to the tool – howtrajectories and indicators can be turned into maps
Transforming indicators into mapsFor each indicator spatialdata (geographical layer) isidentified1 indicator = 1 map=> Mapping tool box
Mapping toolboxCombines indicator maps into trajectoriesLivelihood scale – Units of observation are livelihood zones – Links trajectories to livelihoods – FEWSNET livelihood zone map (180 zones): Areas within which households (on average) share similar livelihood patterns i.e. they have access to the same set of food and cash income sources and to the same markets
The mapping toolboxTrajectories Indicator 1 (I1) Indicator 2 (I2) Indicator 3 (I3)Excel sheet I1zj> x1 I2zj> x2 I3zj> x3Spatial processing1. Aggregates indicator maps to livelihood maps (by zonal statistic)2. Selects livelihood zones where all of conditions of the indicators are metArc GIS Suitable livelihood zone for a given intensification trajectory