StrataNY_2011_ferrari

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Talk at Strata Summit, NY Sept 2011

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StrataNY_2011_ferrari

  1. 1. Atmospheric Analytics Michael Ferrari CSC
  2. 2. Atmospheric Analytics How has weather & climate data availability changed?How are smart businesses are relying on, and profiting from, the ubiquitous weather & climate data? WCI: Technology/Methodology transfer What is on the horizon/NASA-NCCS….?
  3. 3. Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
  4. 4. Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
  5. 5. Mount Washington, NHDimbokro, Cote-d’Ivoire
  6. 6. Weather Black Swans Source: Weather Trends International
  7. 7. From J. Schnase, NASA
  8. 8. Source: Lloyds, Forecasting Risk, 2011 Source: National Center for Environmental Prediction
  9. 9. Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research Applications MERRA: Publicly available, 28 Physical Parameters 1979-present Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, MERRA
  10. 10. Network Analysis – Reanalysis data application Source: Elsner et al, Geophys. Res. Ltrs, 2009
  11. 11. Applying WCI to Global Food Supply & Price Risk Management (C) (B) (E) (E) (C) (A) (A) (D) (D) (F) (B)
  12. 12. Food Production
  13. 13. Food Production Extreme Events(Pakistan Floods)
  14. 14. Food Production Extreme Events(Pakistan Floods) Monsoon Activity
  15. 15. New Business Models will emerge Combining Strata with Where
  16. 16. New Business Models will emerge Mining Environmental Sensor Network data Source: NSF CyberInfrastructure Report, 2003
  17. 17. New Business Models will emerge Scientific Data Services: Climate Data Service
  18. 18. WDGD?
  19. 19. Apply Climate &Weather Informatics toDo Things That Matter
  20. 20. 35/40
  21. 21. MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for applied models
  22. 22. MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for applied models
  23. 23. WCI Summary• Applying climate indices to scenario planning is the classic case of ‘Decision Making Under Uncertainty’. However, using a traditional forecast as an operational tool is difficult beyond a 7-10 day window (introduction of error, etc.)• With more data and more tools to analyze data, current climate indices can be applied, as well as new climate indices developed (teleconnections)• Risk Quantification becomes an operational issue as well as a financial issue• NASA/NOAA data repositories are a wonderful testbed for the applied data scientist• Use reanalysis information (NASA/NOAA) to monitor, and adjust, prior assumptions. Flexibility enables robustness.
  24. 24. WWDD?
  25. 25. Thanks • Edd Dumbill • Mac Slocum • John Schnase, PhD • Phil Webster, PhD • Dan Walker, PhD

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