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Palestinian Israeli Conflict
Team Palestinian-Israeli Conflict<br />1<br />
Requirement<br />What are the prospects for a Palestinian-Israeli comprehensive peace deal in the next three years?<br /><ul><li>Where are areas of compromise and areas of disagreement likely during these negotiations?
What are the likely conditions in order for Hamas and Fatah to reconcile?
What are the likely areas of leverage in the negotiations?
How will select geopolitically relevant entities influence negotiations?</li></ul>2<br />
Key Findings<br />Highly unlikely there will be a comprehensive Palestinian-Israeli peace deal in the next three years due primarily to:<br />Hamas’s inability to be an accountable political entity<br />West’s view of Hamas <br />Israel’s reluctance on settlements <br />4<br />
Hamas’s inability to be an accountable political entity<br />Operation Cast Lead<br />Hamas failure to sign reconciliation treaty <br />5<br />Post Operation Cast Lead Gaza January 2009 <br />
West’s view of Hamas as a terrorist organization<br />Israel’s refusal to recognize Hamas <br />Hamas stated Israel should not be trusted<br />Hamas called for renewing bombing attacks<br />6<br />Hamas militant groups often fire rockets into Israel<br />
Israel’s reluctance to negotiate on settlements with Fatah <br />Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refuses to freeze settlements<br />Palestinian Authority President MahmoudAbbas refuses to negotiate without settlement freeze<br />7<br />Palestinian Authority President MahmoudAbbas<br />
Recent Developments<br />Hamas rejects Egyptian reconciliation<br />Abbas proposes elections<br />Abbas threatens to not run<br />Central Election Committee calls off elections<br />Fatah proposes independence at UN<br />9<br />Palestinian elections have been delayed by the Central Election Committee<br />
Negotiations and Compromises<br />1967 borders<br />Settlements in Jerusalem and West Bank<br />East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital<br />10<br />Original 1967 borders<br />
Palestinian Reconciliation<br />Hamas’s political popularity<br />Negotiated permanent party status or percentage of parliamentary seats guaranteed<br />11<br />Hamas and Fatah popularity levels of 2008 and 2009<br />
Leverage Point for Israel over Fatah<br />Highly likely best interest to keep Fatah and Hamas separate<br />Settlements<br />Roadblocks and checkpoints<br />12<br />Israeli checkpoint influences West Bank economy<br />
Leverage Points for Israel over Hamas<br />Israel’s economic blockade on the Gaza Strip<br />Likely the loss of funds from tunnels makes Hamas’s administration look incompetent<br />13<br />Smuggling tunnels are primary economic source for Gaza<br />
Leverage Points of Hamas over Israel<br />Tunnel system<br />International community<br />Terrorist operations<br />14<br />Hamas’s actions affect international opinion <br />
Threats from Hamas to Hamas<br />Gazan reconstruction under Hamas control<br />Right wing militant organizations<br />15<br />Islamic militant groups pose a threat to Gazan control<br />
Leverage Points for Hamas over Fatah<br />Hamas can bash Abbas individually, but not Fatah<br />Opportunity increase appeal<br />16<br />Abbas’s popularity is declining <br />
Leverage Points for Fatah over Hamas<br />A Palestinian reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah<br />17<br />Reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah is highly unlikely<br />
Leverage points for Fatah over Israel<br />U.S. training of Palestinian soldiers<br />Fatah can bring international pressure on Israel <br />18<br />U.S. trained Palestinian soldiers<br />
Additional Opportunities<br />It is likely in Israel, Hamas and Fatah's self interests to implement a three state solution:<br />Exchange Gazanterritory for control of Jerusalem<br />Israel and Fatah already are moving in this direction by excluding Hamas<br />21<br />