Long tail

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Long tail

  1. 1. Social media & the long tail Denis Gillet & Adrian Holzer The copyright of images belong to their authors. I will remove them on demand. Contact me at adrian.holzer@epfl.ch
  2. 2. Hits Rule
  3. 3. Our culture is a constant popularity contest
  4. 4. But hits start to rule less
  5. 5. Number of hit albums
  6. 6. All time top 100 albums 22 are from 20 are from the 1980s the 1990s 7 are from the 2000s [wiki]
  7. 7. Why
  8. 8. Piracy ? Free music ? “there’s something to that.”
  9. 9. P2P technology provided users with more choice
  10. 10. MP3 players allowed more selection and variety
  11. 11. “What if instead of a single top 40 there are now 400 top 40s or 40’000 or 400’000.” Chris Anderson
  12. 12. Niches & the long tail
  13. 13. Ecast online jukebox What percentage of the 10’000 albums available sold at least one track per quarter? Typically for WalMart the answer is < 50%
  14. 14. 98% The 98% rule seems universal in digital distribution
  15. 15. The long tail is the large number of occurrences far from the "head" or central part of a distribution of popularities. Number of sales [wiki] still not zero Titles ranked by popularity
  16. 16. The problem with brick & mortar retailers
  17. 17. Shelf space is expensive Theaters must sell 1500 tickets over 2 weeks Retailers must sell 4 copies of an album per year
  18. 18. Number of sales Tyranny of locality Titles not carried by local retailers Titles ranked by popularity
  19. 19. Markets without end
  20. 20. vs Total Sales 5000 3750 45 % 55 % 2500 1250 Products not available at WalMart 0 W Inventory Size (thousands)
  21. 21. vs Total Sales 90 25 % 67.5 N 45 75 % Products not available at Blockbuster 22.5 0 B Inventory Size (thousands)
  22. 22. vs Total Sales 5000 30 % 3750 a 2500 70 % 1250 B&N Products not available at B&N 0 Inventory Size (thousands)
  23. 23. The first step towards the long tail
  24. 24. 1886 ! Richard Sears, a railway agent started a watch distribution company
  25. 25. Using the rail and mail as distribution channel
  26. 26. and the wish book as aggregator
  27. 27. Three forces that lead to the long tail
  28. 28. Production democratization leads to more stuff...
  29. 29. ...and lengthens the tail
  30. 30. Distribution democratization leads to more access to niches...
  31. 31. ...and fattens the tail
  32. 32. Connect supply & demand
  33. 33. ... drives business from hits to niches
  34. 34. The three forces Production democratization Distribution democratization Connect supply & demand
  35. 35. Three steps to infinite variety
  36. 36. 1.Physical Profit thresholds 2.Hybrid 3.Digital
  37. 37. Using social media to reach the long tail
  38. 38. Social media as production tools
  39. 39. Social media as distribution aggregator
  40. 40. storage distribution shelf space billing COST 0/year $10 0% fee 3
  41. 41. Social media as connection tools
  42. 42. Number of followers
  43. 43. Number of friends
  44. 44. The copyrights of images belong to their authors. I will remove them on demand. Contact me at adrian.holzer@epfl.ch

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