Cholesterol is not an important risk factor for heart disease and current dietary recommendations do more harm than good, by Tim Noakes
1. @ProfTimNoakes
Slides available on www.health.uct.ac.za
Professor TD Noakes OMS, MBChB, MD, DSc, PhD (hc), FACSM, (hon) FFSEM (UK)
Discovery Health Professor of Exercise and Sports Science
MRC/UCT Research Unit for Exercise Science and Sports Medicine,
University of Cape Town and
Sports Science Institute of South Africa
2.
3. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet
considerations the widespread the genetic reverses
drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown
of the current guidelines rates of condition, coronary risk
dietary guidelines diabetes and carbohydrate- factors in persons
without proper obesity increased resistance, with carbohydrate-
scientific explosively. explains why large resistance
evaluation or numbers of whereas a high
proof. persons in carbohydrate diet
predisposed worsens those
populations factors.
become obese and
diabetic when
exposed to a high
carbohydrate diet.
4. TODAY 2.5 - 3.5 MILLION
YEARS AGO
Omnivore Vegetarian
Homo sapiens Australopithecus Africanus
5. This change For 3.5 million years
occurred as humans we have done very
became the best well without being
mid-day persistence told what we should
hunters in the eat
animal kingdom
6. TRIBE / COUNTRY HEIGHT (cm)
Cheyenne 176.7
Arapaho 174.3
Crow 173.6
Sioux 172.8
Blackfeet 172.0
Australia 172.0
Canada 171.0
United States 171.0
Norway 169.0
United Kingdom 166.0
Russia 165.0
Italy 161.0
PLAINS INDIANS HUNTING BUFFALO BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WHITE MAN
Steckel RH, Prince JM. Tallest in the world: Native Americans of the
Great Plains in the nineteenth century. Am Econ Rev 2001; 91: 287-294.
8. THE COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE
OF OBESE ADULTS
Rank Country Adult obesity (%)
1 Nauru 78.7
2 Samoa 74.8
3 Tokelau 63.2
4 Kiribati 50.3
5 Marshall Islands 46.0
6 Federated States of Micronesia 44.0
7 French Polynesia 40.4
8 Saudi Arabia 36.1
9 Panama 33.9
10 United States 33.7
11 United Arab Emirates 32.8
12 Iraq 32.2
13 Mexico 29.4
14 Kuwait 29.0
15 Egypt 28.9
16 Bahrain 28.5
17 New Zealand 25.4
18 Macedonia 25.3
19 Seychelles 25.1
20 Australia 24.8
21 United Kingdom 24.0
9. ANCEL KEYS (1904-2004)
8
7 US
Canada
6
CHD (deaths per 1000)
Australia
5
4 England & Wales
3
2
Italy
1
Japan
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Percent calories from fat
10. CHANGES IN CIGARETTE CONSUMPTION MATCHES
THE CHANGING INCIDENCE OF HEART DISEASE
40 All heart disease 5000
Cigarette consumption
35
4000
Cigarettes per capita per year
Annual deaths per 100,000
30
25 3000
20
15 2000
10
1000
5
0 0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
11. COUNTRIES WHERE DATA WERE AVAILABLE
WHEN KEYS PUBLISHED
8
US
“….the evidence from 22 countries for which data are available
7 Finland Canada
US
Canada
indicates that the association between the percentage of fat
6
Australia
CHD (deaths per 1000)
Australia
calories available for consumption in the national diets and
5 NZ
Ireland
mortality from arteriosclerotic and degenerativeGreat Britain
4
Israel heart disease is
England & Wales
not valid; the association is specific neither for dietary fat nor
Switzerland
W. Germany
Sweden
3 Chile
for heart disease mortality. Clearly this tenuous association
Italy Italy Norway
2 Portugal Holland
cannot Japan as much support
serve Italy for the hypothesis which
1
etiologic factor France
implicates fat as anCeylon Denmark in arteriosclerotic and
Japan Mexico
degenerative heart disease.”
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Percent calories from fat
Yerushalmy J, Hilleboe HE. Fat in the diet and mortality from heart disease; a methodologic note.
N Y State J Med 1957; 57: 2343-2354.
12. “….the evidence from 22 countries for which data are available
indicates that the association between the percentage of fat
calories available for consumption in the national diets and
mortality from arteriosclerotic and degenerative heart disease is
not valid; the association is specific neither for dietary fat nor
for heart disease mortality. Clearly this tenuous association
cannot serve as much support for the hypothesis which
implicates fat as an etiologic factor in arteriosclerotic and
degenerative heart disease.”
13. RICHARD NIXON
APPOINTS EARL “Food Bill” insures that US
BUTZ AS farmers receive $5 billion per
SECRETARY OF year to grow corn and soy.
AGRICULTURE An additional $5 billion for
other farmers.
14. “Food Bill” insures that US
farmers receive $5 billion per
year to grow corn and soy.
An additional $5 billion for
other farmers.
15. • Reduce consumption of fat
• Switch from saturated fat to vegetable fats
• Reduce cholesterol to 1 egg per day
• Eat more carbohydrate, especially grains
The McGovern Report was written by a junior staffer, a
vegan, who had no training in the nutritional sciences.
16. UNITED STATES SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON
NUTRITION AND HUMAN NEEDS (1968-1977)
“What right has the federal
government to propose that the
American people conduct a vast
nutritional experiment, with
themselves as subjects, on the
strength of so very little evidence?”
Philip Handler, National Academy of Science
17. UNITED STATES SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON
NUTRITION AND HUMAN NEEDS (1968-1977)
“Resolution of this dilemma turns on
a value judgment. The dilemma so
posed is not a scientific question; it is
a question of ethics, morals, politics.
Those who argue either position
strongly are expressing their values;
they are not making scientific
judgments”.
Philip Handler, National Academy of Science
18. UNITED STATES SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON
NUTRITION AND HUMAN NEEDS (1968-1977)
“…a trial of the low fat diet recommended by the McGovern
Committee and the American Heart Association has never
been carried out. It seems that the proponents of this dietary
change are willing to advocate an untested diet to the nation
on the basis of suggestive evidence obtained in tests of a
different diet. This illogic is presumably justified by the belief
than benefits will be obtained, vis-à-vis CHD
prevention, by any diet that causes a
reduction in plasma lipid levels”.
Ahrens EH. Dietary fats and coronary heart
disease: unfinished business. Lancet 1979; 2: 1345-1348.
19. 2010:
…no significant
evidence for During 5-23 y of follow-up of
concluding that dietary 347,747 subjects, 11,006
developed CVD or stroke.
saturated fat is Intake of saturated fat was not
associated with an associated with an increased
increased risk of risk of CHD, stroke or CVD.
Consideration of age, sex and
coronary heart disease study quality did not change
or cardiovascular the results.
disease.
Siri-Tarino PW, Sun Q, Hu FB, Krauss RM. Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies evaluating the
association of saturated fat with cardiovascular disease. Am J ClinNutr 2010; 91: 535-546.
20. 2011:
There were no clear
effects of dietary fat
changes on total mortality
or cardiovascular mortality.
21. CONSUMPTION OF ANIMAL FAT IN USA FALLS AS
INCIDENCE OF HEART DISEASE RISES
40 All heart disease 15
Animal fat
35
Pounds animal fat per year per person
Annual deaths per 100,000
30
10
25
20
15
5
10
5
0 0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
22. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet
considerations the widespread the genetic reverses
drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown
of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk
CONCLUSION:
dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons
without proper obesity increased resistance, explain with carbohydrate-
scientific explosively. s why large resistance
evaluation or numbers of whereas a high
proof. Keys was wrong.
persons in
predisposed
carbohydrate diet
worsens those
Fat in the diet does not cause
populations factors.
become obese and
diabetic when
heart disease.
exposed to a high
carbohydrate diet.
Diet-heart hypothesis is wrong.
23. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet
considerations the widespread the genetic reverses
drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown
of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk
dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons
without proper obesity increased resistance, explain with carbohydrate-
scientific explosively. s why large resistance
evaluation or numbers of whereas a high
proof. persons in carbohydrate diet
predisposed worsens those
populations factors.
become obese and
diabetic when
exposed to a high
carbohydrate diet.
26. INFLUENCE OF 1977 DIETARY GUIDELINES ON
% OBESITY IN USA
50
40
Dietary goals for
Percent with BMI> 30kg.m2
Americans
released
30
20
45-64 years
10 30-44 years
65 years & over
18-29 years
0
1971-74 1976-80 1988-94 1999-00 2005-06
2001-02
Year
27. DIABETES AND OBESITY RATES IN THE US HAVE SORED
SINCE THE ADOPTION OF THE 1977 DIETARY GUIDELINES
% of Americans with diabetes % of US children who are obese
1980
2010 1980
2010
% of US adults who are obese
1980
2010
28. CHANGES IN US MACRONUTRIENT INTAKES – 1971 - 2000
NHANES MEN NHANES WOMEN
3000 CHO:FAT:PROT 3000 CHO:FAT:PROT
42:37:17 49:33:16 45:36:17 52:33:15
+6.8%
2500 2500
Carbohydrate-induced Hyperphagia
2000 2000
Energy intake (kcal)
+21.7%
1500 1500
+23.4%
1000 1000 +38.4%
-5%
+11%
500 500
-14%
+3%
0 0
71-74 76-80 88-94 99-2000 71-74 76-80 88-94 99-2000
Intake Carbohydrates Fat Saturated fat
Hite AH, Feinman RD, Guzman GE, et al. In the face of contradictory evidence: report of the
29. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet The Woman’s
CONCLUSION:
considerations the widespread the genetic reverses Health Initiative
drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown Randomized
of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk Controlled Dietary
dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons Modification Trial
without proper
scientific
obesity increased
explosively.
Explosive increase in rates
resistance, explain
s why large
with carbohydrate-
resistance
(WHIRCDMT) of
which my
evaluation or
proof.
of obesity and Type II
numbers of
persons in
whereas a high
carbohydrate diet
opponent was
Project Leader
diabetes in the US has
predisposed
populations
worsens those
factors.
proves that the
prescription of a
been caused by an
become obese and
diabetic when
high carbohydrate
diet to persons
increased carbohydrate
exposed to a high
carbohydrate diet.
with either known
heart disease or
intake resulting from the diabetes
constitutes
1977 Dietary Guidelines
medical
malpractice.
30. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet
considerations the widespread the genetic reverses
drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown
of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk
dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons
without proper obesity increased resistance, explain with carbohydrate-
scientific explosively. s why large resistance
evaluation or numbers of whereas a high
proof. persons in carbohydrate diet
predisposed worsens those
populations factors.
become obese and
diabetic when
exposed to a high
carbohydrate diet.
31. WHY DOES OBESITY OCCUR ONLY IN SOME WHEN ALL EAT
HIGH CARBOHYDRATE DIETS?
Largest man in the American police
world in 1903 officer in 2012
32. Obesity cannot be due simply to doing too little
exercise.
In a homeostatically-regulated system, any
reduction in energy expenditure will be matched
by an exactly equal reduction in energy intake.
Conversely any sustained increase in energy
consumption should be matched by an increase
in energy expenditure.
Hence the problem must be that the homeostat
has been broken by the 1977 Dietary Guidelines.
33. THE CONDITON OF CARBOHYDRATE RESISTANCE
KF Petersen, S Dufour, DB Savage. PNAS. 104; 12587–12594, 2007.
180 Meal Meal 250 Meal Meal
10am 2:30pm Insulin-resistant 10am 2:30pm
Plasma glucose concentrations
Plasma insulin concentrations
160 Insulin-sensitive
200
140
150
(µU/mL)
(mg/dL)
120
100
100
80 50
60 0
10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 10pm 12am 2am 4am 6am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 10pm 12am 2am 4am 6am
180 28 P = 0.00005
Plasma triglyceride concentrations
160 24
140
De novo lipogenesis
20
120
(mg/dL) 16
(mg/dL)
100
80 12
60
8
40
20 4
0 0
10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 10pm 12am 2am 4am 6am Insulin sensitive Insulin resistant
Petersen KF, Dufour S, Savage DB, et al. The role of skeletal muscle insulin resistance in the
34. The metabolism of every human is
not the same.
Those with carbohydrate
resistance are unable to
metabolize carbohydrate safely.
36. BLOOD RISK FACTORS FOR CORONARY HEART DISEASE
Total Cholesterol
Ultrasensitive CRP
Fibrinogen
Glucose
HbA1c
Homocysteine
HDL-cholesterol
LDL-Cholesterol
LDL- Cholesterol particle size or number
Lp (a)
Insulin
Omega 6 to Omega 3 ratios
Triglycerides
Uric Acid
37. THE DIETARY FAT HYPOTHESIS FOR HEART DISEASE
Atherogenic Dyslipidaemia (AD)
Increased LDL
High fat cholesterol Arterial
diet Increased “clogging”
triglycerides
Reduced HDL
cholesterol
OBESITY, DIABETES, HYPERTENSION, GOUT, METABOLIC
SYNDROME ARE SEPARATE/DISTINCT DISEASES
38. RELATIVE IMPORTANCE (BASED ON HAZARD RATIO) OF
DIFFERENT RISK FACTORS FOR CORONARY HEART DISEASE
RISK FACTOR HAZARD RATIO (RANGE)
Diabetes 2.04 (1.76 – 2.35)
Age 1.87 (1.73 – 2.02)
Current smoking 1.79 (1.66 – 1.94)
Systolic blood pressure 1.31 (1.26 – 1.37)
Total [Cholesterol] 1.22 (1.17 – 1.27)
[Triglyceride] 1.19 (1.15 – 1.23)
[HDL-Cholesterol] 0.83 (0.78 – 0.87)
Di AE, Gao P, Pennells L, et al. Lipid-related markers and cardiovascular disease
39. PREDICTIVE VALUE OF HbA1c FOR CORONARY HEART
DISEASE EVENTS AND ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY
8
Coronary heart disease events
7 All-cause mortality
Age-adjusted relative risk (95% CI)
6
5
Carbohydrate resistance
4 “Pre-diabetes”
3
2
1 Total Cholesterol
Hazard Ratio
0
<5.0 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 6.0-6.4 6.5-6.9 >7.0 Known
diabetes
Hemoglobin A1C concentrations (%)
Khaw KT, Wareham N, Bingham S, et al. Association of hemoglobin A1c with cardiovascular disease and mortality in adults:
40.
41. CUMULATIVE INCIDENCE OF IHD FOR DIFFERENT
RANDOM BLOOD GLUCOSE CONCENTRATIONS
Ischemic heart disease Myocardial infarction
100
>11mmol/L (>198 mg/dL)
90 9-10.9 mmol/L (162-197 mg/dL)
7-8.9 mmol/L (126-161 mg/dL)
80 5-6.9 mmol/L (90-125 mg/dL)
<5 mmol/L (<90 mg/dL)
Cumulative incidence (%)
70 Overall log rank p<0.001
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Age (Years) Age (Years)
Benn M et al. Non-fasting glucose, ischemic heart disease and myocardial infarction. Journal of the American College of Cardiology 59; 2012.
42. BLOOD GLUCOSE (mmol/L) IN THE NORMAL RANGE PREDICTS
CARDIOVASCULAR OUTCOME
2.0
1.5
Hazard Ratio
Total Cholesterol
1.0 Hazard Ratio
0.5
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 IFG
2.8-4.4 4.5-4.6 4.7-4.9 5.0-5.2 5.3-5.5 5.6-7.0
Shaye K, Amir T, Shlomo S, Yechezkel S. Fasting glucose levels within the high normal range
.
43. Economic
considerations
Within 5 years of
the widespread
The presence of
the genetic CONCLUSION:
A high fat diet
reverses
allknown
The Woman’s
Health Initiative
drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing Randomized
of the current
dietary guidelines
guidelines rates of
diabetes and
condition,
carbohydrate-
Their abnormal
coronary risk
factors in persons
Controlled Dietary
Modification Trial
without proper obesity increased resistance, carbohydrate
with carbohydrate- (WHIRCDMT) of
scientific
evaluation or
explosively. explains why large
numbers of metabolism explains
resistance
whereas a high
which my
opponent was
proof. persons in
predisposed
why those with
carbohydrate diet
worsens those
Project Leader
proves that the
populations carbohydrate
factors. prescription of a
become obese and
diabetic when resistance develop high carbohydrate
diet to persons
exposed to a high
carbohydrate diet.
obesity, diabetes and
with either known
heart disease or
coronary heart disease
diabetes
when eating a high constitutes
medical
carbohydrate diet. malpractice.
44. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet
considerations the widespread the genetic reverses
drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown
of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk
dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons
without proper obesity increased resistance, explain with carbohydrate-
scientific explosively. s why large resistance
evaluation or numbers of whereas a high
proof. persons in carbohydrate diet
predisposed worsens those
populations factors.
become obese and
diabetic when
exposed to a high
carbohydrate diet.
45.
46. A HIGH FAT DIET REVERSES ALL CORONARY RISK
FACTORS MORE EFFECTIVELY THAN A LOW FAT DIET
ApoB/ApoA-1 High Carbohydrate Low Fat
ApoB Low Carbohydrate High Fat
Total Saturated Fatty Acids 12% CHO 60% Fat KetogenicDIet
Small LDL-C particles
Triglyceride/HDL-C
HDL-C
Triglyceride AUC
Triglyceride
Leptin
HOMA
Insulin
Glucose
Abdominal fat
Body mass
10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60
Percent change
Volek JS, Fernandez ML, Feinman RD, Phinney SD. Dietary carbohydrate restriction induces a unique metabolic state positively
47. “Meta-analysis … on data obtained in 1,141 obese
patients, showed the low carbohydrate diet to be
associated with significant decreases in body weight,
body mass index, abdominal circumference, systolic
blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, plasma
triglycerides, fasting plasma glucose,
glycatedhaemoglobin, plasma insulin and plasma C-
reactive protein, as well as an increase in high-density
lipoprotein cholesterol. Low-density lipoprotein
cholesterol and creatininedid not change
significantly,whereas limited data exist concerning
plasma uric acid”.
Santos FL et al.
48. THE DIETARY CARBOHYDRATE HYPOTHESIS FOR HEART DISEASE
Hyperglycaemic HyperinsulinaemicAtherogenic Dyslipidaemia (HHAD)
Low
Glucose Omega
Insulin 3, high
Omega 6
High Triglycerides
carbohydrate HDL-C • Arterial inflammation
*
(fructose) diet Small LDL-C • Metabolic syndrome
particles • Coronary heart
disease/stroke
Uric acid*
• Obesity
CRP • Diabetes
Fatty liver • Hypertension
ONE CAUSE, ONE TREATMENT FOR ALL CONDITIONS
49. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of the A high fat diet
CONCLUSION:
considerations the widespread genetic reverses
drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown
of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohyd coronary risk
dietary guidelines diabetes and rate- factors in persons
without proper obesity increased resistance, explains with carbohydrate-
scientific explosively. why large numbers resistance
evaluation or of persons in whereas a high
proof. predisposed carbohydrate diet
populations become worsens those
obese and diabetic factors.
when exposed to a
high carbohydrate
diet.
50. The 48 836-person
Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet
Woman’s Health
considerations the widespread the genetic reverses
Initiative of which
drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown
my opponent was
of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk
the Project
dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons
Director proves
without proper obesity increased resistance, explain with carbohydrate-
that the 1977 US
scientific explosively. s why large resistance
Dietary Guidelines
evaluation or numbers of whereas a high
accelerate disease
proof. persons in carbohydrate diet
progression in
predisposed worsens those
persons with
populations factors.
either known heart
become obese and
disease or
diabetic when
diabetes. Thus his
exposed to a high
landmark study
carbohydrate diet.
provides the
definitive evidence
disproving Keys’
false diet-heart
hypothesis.
51. WOMEN’S HEALTH DIETARY MODIFICATION TRIAL
48 836 post-menopausal women
40% assigned to low fat 60% to self-selected
eating pattern dietary behaviour
Subjects reduced energy from Control subjects received a copy
fat to 20% and from saturated fat of Dietary Guidelines for
to 7% and increased fruit and Americans “as well as other
vegetable intake to at least five health-related material but had
servings per day and grains to at no contact with nutritional
least six servings per day. interventionists”.
Subjects were followed for 8.1 years.
Howard BV, Van HL, Hsia J, et al. Low-fat dietary pattern and risk of cardiovascular disease: the Women's
52. Conclusion: The study “did not
significantly reduce the risk of coronary
heart disease, stroke, or cardiovascular
disease in postmenopausal women and
achieved only modest effects on
cardiovascular risk factors”.
But was that all they found?
53.
54. “...THE HR FOR THE 3.4%
OF WOMEN WITH CVD AT
BASELINE WAS 1.26 (95%
CI 1.03-1.54)....”
This is entirely predictable as a high carbohydrate diet produces
HHAD
(hyperglycaemichyperinsulinaemicatherogenicdyslipidaemia) in
those who are metabolically vulnerable.
55.
56. “The results of this study do not change
established recommendations on disease
prevention. Women should continue to …
work with their doctors to reduce their
risks for heart disease including following
a diet low in saturated fat, trans fat and
cholesterol”.
E Nabel, Director, NHLBI.
57.
58. “This study shows that just reducing total fat
intake does not go far enough to have an
impact on heart disease risk. While the
participants’ overall change in LDL “bad”
cholesterol was small, we saw trends towards
greater reductions in cholesterol and heart
disease risk in women eating less saturated
and trans fat”.
J Rossouw, Project Director, WHIRCDMT
59. THE UPTON SINCLAIR THEOREM
“It is difficult to get
a man to understand
something, when his
salary depends
upon his not
understanding it”.
60.
61.
62.
63. Shikany JM, Margolis KL, Pettinger M, et al. Effects of a low-fat dietary intervention on glucose, insulin, and insulin
resistance
64. “….women with diabetes at baseline did
experience adverse glycemic effects of the low-
fat diet, which indicated that
unless accompanied by additional
recommendations to guide carbohydrate
intake”.
Shikany JM et al.
65.
66. The Look AHEAD Trial was terminated
prematurely in October 2012 after 11.5
years as it was found that even when
combined with exercise, the Prudent diet
had no measureble effect on development
of arterial disease and its complications in
persons with Type 2 Diabetes. Continuing
the trial was considered “pointless”.
67. CONCLUSION:
Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet The 48 836-person
considerations the widespread the genetic reverses Woman’s Health
drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown Initiative proves
of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk that the 1977 US
The WHI provides the definitive
dietary guidelines
without proper
diabetes and
obesity increased
drate-
resistance, explain
factors in persons
with carbohydrate-
Dietary Guidelines
accelerate disease
evidence from a randomized
scientific
evaluation or
explosively. s why large
numbers of
resistance
whereas a high
progression in
persons with
proof.controlled clinical trial that persons in
predisposed
carbohydrate diet
worsens those
either known heart
disease or
disproves the diet-heart hypothesis. populations
become obese and
factors. diabetes. Thus the
research of my
Following the 1977 US “Prudent” Diet diabetic when
exposed to a high
opponent provides
the definitive
Guidelines worsens the outcome of carbohydrate diet. evidence that
disproves Keys’
those who are the most vulnerable false diet-heart
hypothesis.
because they have either heart
disease or diabetes.
68. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet The 48 836-person
considerations the widespread the genetic reverses Woman’s Health
drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown Initiative of which
of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk my opponent was
CONCLUSION:
dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons the Project Leader
without proper obesity increased resistance, explain with carbohydrate- proves that the
scientific explosively. s why large resistance 1977 US Dietary
evaluation or numbers of Guidelines
proof. The Diet Heart Hypothesis of Ancel Keys is WRONG.
persons in
whereas a high
carbohydrate diet accelerate disease
predisposed worsens those progression in
Its widespread promotion in the name of good science
populations factors. persons with
represents the single greatest error in medicine in the
become obese and
diabetic when
either known heart
disease or
past 60 years. exposed to a high
carbohydrate diet.
diabetes. Thus
that landmark
study provides the
definitive evidence
disproving Keys’
false diet-heart
hypothesis.
Editor's Notes
In the interests of trying to keep to my time allocation I will be reading from a prepared text which is not my preferred method of lecturing but I have a very short time to convince you that everything you believe on this topic is wrong. Given enough time that would be an easy task. But to get through enough evidence to make you even consider it – I have to stick to my text. Even then I am going to go too fast and I apologise for that. However the slides are available on this website.So to begin: For 59 years we have been brainwashed by governments, industry, some NGO’s and the “experts” to believe that a diet that is killing us is actually good for us. And the evidence that this diet is killing us is all around us but for some reason we apparently can’t see it. Many of our parents have died from chronic diseases that our medicines have been powerless to prevent; our children’s generation is the most obese in the history of mankind. And our own health is not always ideal. I am a perfect example. Despite eating the so-called healthy low fat diet for 33 years I have developed adult-onset diabetes even though I ran more than 70 marathons or ultramarathons in my life and continue to run 30-60 minutes most days. Why is this?
I began to question what I should eat when I was first exposed to these books. Gary Taubes’s book traces the changes in our understanding of nutrition over the past 200 years; Russell Smith describes what he calls the cholesterol conspiracy - the greatest scam in the history of medicine and Ben Goldacre looks at the pharmaceutical companies’ influence on what we teach our students. I decided that what I had written in my book Lore of Running was wrong and 2 years ago I said: Sorry I am wrong. And that then led to this debate.
Tonight I am going to present 5 irrefutable facts that to my knowledge are not taught at any medical schools in the world. The reason they are not taught is because they are inconvenient – they require that we think differently. And that takes effort. Yet if these facts are true then by ignoring them we cannot arrive at a complete truth and help our patients. So my challenge tonight to this faculty is to ask this question: Do we teach all the facts and therefore have a chance at arriving at the truth? Or do we delete that which is inconvenient? In which case what we are teaching is a blind faith, a religious dogma, not a science. The choice Ladies and Gentlemen is simple but the effects will be profound. My story begin 2.5 million years ago….
The acme of human physical perfection was reached in the 1800s by the American Plains Indians who at the time were the tallest in the world – taller even as you can see from this table than even the Australians.
But all that changed when the white man shot out the bison and forced these Plains Indians to eat the White Man’s diet with lots of cereals and grains and sugar and other healthy processed foods. And every year millions of dollars are spent trying to understand what causes obesity.
And this sequence is repeated all around the world. The 7 fattest nations in the world are small Pacific Islands where people where profoundly healthy eating the foods that existed in their environment. Until they adopted the low fat American health diet full of grains, sugar laden boxed cereals, bread and soft drinks like Coca-Cola and fruit juices. In all these countries, as happened with the Plains Indians, obesity follows immediately and diabetes within 10-20 years. Surely It does not require great intellect to work out what is going on? So where does the problem start?
It begins with one man Ancel Keys who was a biochemist with ambition who strayed into epidemiology. In 1953 he collected some data from the World Health Organization and drew this very pretty graph apparently showing a straight line relationshiop between deaths from coronary heart disease in 6 countries and the amount of dietary fat that they ate. What he failed to mention was that an association like this does not prove causation. It was something he never understood at any point in his life. For this this type of study can never PROVE anything. Because it cannot ever exclude that some difference other than the one you measured causes the difference you have found. Do we really believe that the the only important difference between the Japanese and the Americans is that the Americans eat more fat in the diet. But Keys managed to convince the world that that was the case.
Problem for Keys was that he was trying to fix a problem that did not need fixing. The rise in heart disease mortality had already reached its peak in 1953 when Keys began his crusade. He should have been around in 1920 to make a difference. In fact the dramatic rise in heart disease rates can be explained quite simply by the rise in cigarette smoking which begin to increase in 1905 nicely 15 years before the rise in heart disease as would be expected as cigarettes take time to cause health damage.
Two American epidemiologists showed that Keys had reported only 6 countries not the 22 for which the data were available. They added in the 16 missing points and the graph no longer looked quite so spectacular. However they then looked at all possible factors that might explain this association and concluded - But their effort was wasted as no one took any notice and this classic paper is never read by modern scientists. Instead Key’s acquired political support and his idea became the accepted “truth”. The theory was helped by the next man in our story – President Richard Nixon
who appointed Earl Butz as Secretary of Agriculture in 1971 with the twin goals of making the farmers wealthy and bringing down the price of food. Butz decided that the solution was to industrialize the production of corn with the use of massive subsidies to farmers. This drove down the price of corn and irreversibly changed what we have eaten since 1972.
But there had to be a market into which the corn could be sold. This was conveniently provided by a Senate Select Committee which under the chairmanship of Senator George McGovern in 1977 produced the first dietary guidelines which fundamentally changed our attitude to what we should eat. Until 1960 everyone knew that carbohydrates are fattening and that is what would then have been taught at this Medical School. But these guidelines written by a vegan with no training in the nutritional science now made carbohydrates the health food and demonized fat producing what we call dietary lipophobia – the fear of fat.
But not everyone agreed. Philip Handler President of the US National Academy of Science asked:
He added that it could not be a scientific question since there were no data. Rather the decision was made on ethical, moral and political grounds.
Dr Ahrens, a highly regarded scientist, who spent his life studying cholesterol metabolism was of the same opinion:
But three decades later we know that Handler and Ehrens were correct: This meta-analysis of published studies involving 347 747 subjects studied for between 5 and 23 years concluded that there is (read):
And the highest independent authority in science the Cochrane Collaboration has also concluded in 2011 that there is no evidence that reducing the fat in our diet will reduce our risk of dying from heart disease. So the Keys diet-heart theory is wrong– just as the real scientists of the 1950s and 60s warned. The challenge for this medical school is that we either embrace this or we ignore it and continue to teach blind faith. The choice is ours and I am only the messenger!
Now we could also have saved ourselves 50 wasted years by simply checking what happened to animal fat consumption in the US as the incidence of heart disease was rising. It was completely stable but has fallen dramatically since 1950 as a direct result of lipohobia.
So the first irrefutable truth is that: .
The second irrefutable truth is that:..
Clearly obesity rates at all ages start to rise immediately after the introduction of the 1977 guidelines.
The change in the size of these circles gives an idea of how rapidly this change has occurred in diabetes (point), in childhood obesity and in adult obesity. The growth Is frightening.
This slide shows the changes in energy and macronutrient consumption that has happened in these 30 years. ( Point to intake, carbohydrates, fat and saturated fat in men and women over time).
So the conclusion of the second irrefutable fact is that:
The third irrefutable fact is that we are not all the same – in particular we are not all equally able to metabolize carbohydrate. Instead some are like me and we are carbohydrate-resistant so that (read the slide)
Why is that some become as large as these gentlemen? The answer is that the homeostat that regulates our weight has been busted in all who are overweight even those who are much less obese than the American policeman. We are told for example that one cause of obesity is simply because we exercise too little. Well (read overlay)
The answer of why the homestat gets broken is best shown by this study from the US. The authors began by screening 400 healthy lean sedentary subjects with a glucose tolerance test and then selected those 12 who had the best carbohydrate metabolism and the 12 with the worst whom they called insulin resistant which is the same as carbohydrate resistant. They then studied the metabolic response of both groups when they ate 2 high carbohydrate meals (55% carbohydrate) plus a large sugar load. This is what was found:
We have known since the 1960s that high carbohydrate diets cause the following changes in person with carbohydrate resistance. In the interests of time I am not going to read all of them. The point is that there is a unifying explanation for why these changes occur – they occur in genetically-predisposed individuals exposed to a high carbohydrate diet. All are features of the condition doctors recognize as the metabolic syndrome. The question is how important are all these changes?
Now there are a number of chemicals in our blood that tell us something about our health status – again I do not have the time to discuss them all. But the point is that because of our blind faith in Keys’ diet-heart hypothesis, we generally only measure the following blood variables to predict our health and risk: Total cholesterol; HDL-cholesterol; LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides.We do this according to this model of heart disease:
That a high fat diet causesatherogenicdyslipidaemia by raising blood cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations and lowering the good HDL cholesterol which then leads magically to arterial clogging. According to this disease a high fat diet causes heart disease but obesity, diabetes, hypertension, gout and the metabolic syndrome are different diseases requiring different treatments. But this model is false because as I will show a high fat diet does not always raise the LDL cholesterol but it always causes triglycerides to go up and HDL cholesterol to go down. In fact it is a high carbohydrate diet which causes the triglycerides to go up and the HDL cholesterol to go down.
The next question we need to answer is which of these blood factors is the more important in predicting our future health. To answer this here is the most recent study I could find. In a study of 165 000 subjects of whom 15 000 developed heart attacks and 5000 had strokes it was found that these were the risk factors in order of predictive ability. It shows that the traditional measures of atherogenicdyslipidemia are the least good predictors and are in fact pretty useless. Which is very surprising if cholesterol is meant to be the unique cause of heart disease. The best predictor by far is the disease I have, diabetes. What is it about diabetes that raises the risk of heart disease?
Answer comes from European Prospective Investigation in Cancer in 10 000 residents of Norfolk. It was found that the blood glycosylatedhaemoglobin concentration (HBA1c) was the best predictor of risk of heart disease. The HBA1c is a measure of the average blood glucose concentration over the previous 3 months. These data show that at any increasing level of HbA1c there was an increasing risk of heart disease and that at the end of the range the risk is increased more than 7 fold. This compares with an increase of only 1.2-fold for an elevated blood cholesterol concentration (press for arrow). This shows that HBA1c is a far superior predictor of risk than is a raised blood cholesterol concentration.
Now HBA!C does not cause heart disease – it just tells us something about the historical blood glucose concentration. This study of 81 000 people in Denmark measured their random blood glucose concentrations many years earlier and then followed them for many years until a sufficient number had developed heart disease. What they found was that for those with a blood glucose of 11 which is found only in diabetes, the cumulative incidence of ischemic heart disease events rose very steeply whereas ….. The consequence was…. These data show that if you want to stay healthy for a long time, you need to keep your blood glucose concentration as close to 5 as possible. And this was confirmed in another recent study
reported in the American Heart Journal In which cardiovascular outcome was measured in persons with what we call normal blood glucose concentrations. It was found that even within this range, heart attack risk rose to above that predicted by the total cholesterol concentration (arrow). So this seems to suggest that if you want to really know your heart attack risk you need to measure your blood glucose level regularly as do I with a simple and very cheap piece of equipment.
So my conclusion is that …..
The fourth irrefutable truth is that
I knew nothing of this until I came across the work of Dr Jeff Volek who for the past 30 years has been the world’s leading researcher of the biological effects of low carbohydrate diets. His work is extensive and published in some of the best journals of the world but he has also collated the work in these books.
A recent publication of his reviewed the findings in a study of subjects who ate either the heart healthy high carbohydrate diet or the heart unhealthy high fat diet. Both were calorie restricted. They found the following:Of course this is one study: But fortunately a recent meta-analysis of all these studies shows that Volek is right since a …
So we come to the dietary carbohydrate hypothesis for heart disease which is that a …Note in this model there is a single cause.Interestingly this is so easy to test. Either the hypothesis is right or it is wrong. Would be very easy to prove me wrong. But who in the medical school is performing this trial and if no one is, why not? The only reason people don’t test theories is because they are scared of what they might find.
So the 4th irrefutable truth is that a …………….
The fifth irrefutable truth is that
Here is the front page of the first publication dealing with the dietary findings of the Womans Health Inititative showing that Professor Rossouw is indeed an author of the paper. The study design was the following: …This was the conclusion. Of course this is predictable since we know that a low fat diet makes coronary risk factors worse compared to a high fat diet. But was that all that was found?
So in a press release at the time Dr E Nable Director of the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute said this:…. She failed to mention that the diet low in fat had increased the risk that the health of women with heart disease would worsen if they ate the low fat diet.
Professor Rossouw had his own spin on the study for he said But reducing fat intake in women with heart disease made their outcome worse! So how possibly could reducing it further do anything else than make their condition even worse.
And then the final WHI Study relates to diabetes and again the finding is clear: Women with diabetes do worse if they eat the low fat diet. This is entirely predictable because a high carbohydrate diet worsens the metabolic profile in person with carbohydrate resistance as I showed earlier. So they found that (read text)Of course the authors of the WHI did not have the courage to say – actually women with diabetes should have been told to increase their fat intakes!
Thus the final irrefutable truth is that:
So my final conclusion based on the 5 irrefutable truths that I have presented is that: Thank you for your patience and attention.