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Professor TD Noakes OMS, MBChB, MD, DSc, PhD (hc), FACSM, (hon) FFSEM (UK)
             Discovery Health Professor of Exercise and Sports Science
          MRC/UCT Research Unit for Exercise Science and Sports Medicine,
                          University of Cape Town and
                      Sports Science Institute of South Africa
Economic             Within 5 years of     The presence of      A high fat diet
considerations       the widespread        the genetic          reverses
drove the adoption   adoption of these     predisposing         allknown
of the current       guidelines rates of   condition,           coronary risk
dietary guidelines   diabetes and          carbohydrate-        factors in persons
without proper       obesity increased     resistance,          with carbohydrate-
scientific           explosively.          explains why large   resistance
evaluation or                              numbers of           whereas a high
proof.                                     persons in           carbohydrate diet
                                           predisposed          worsens those
                                           populations          factors.
                                           become obese and
                                           diabetic when
                                           exposed to a high
                                           carbohydrate diet.
TODAY         2.5 - 3.5 MILLION
                             YEARS AGO




Omnivore                                               Vegetarian




           Homo sapiens   Australopithecus Africanus
This change       For 3.5 million years
occurred as humans     we have done very
  became the best      well without being
mid-day persistence   told what we should
   hunters in the              eat
  animal kingdom
TRIBE / COUNTRY            HEIGHT (cm)
                   Cheyenne                   176.7
                   Arapaho                    174.3
                   Crow                       173.6
                   Sioux                      172.8
                   Blackfeet                  172.0
                   Australia                  172.0
                   Canada                     171.0
                   United States              171.0
                   Norway                     169.0
                   United Kingdom             166.0
                   Russia                     165.0
                   Italy                      161.0

     PLAINS INDIANS HUNTING BUFFALO BEFORE
          THE ARRIVAL OF THE WHITE MAN
Steckel RH, Prince JM. Tallest in the world: Native Americans of the
Great Plains in the nineteenth century. Am Econ Rev 2001; 91: 287-294.
MODERN PLAINS INDIANS HUNTING
    THE WHITE MAN’S DIET
THE COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE
             OF OBESE ADULTS
         Rank   Country                          Adult obesity (%)
           1    Nauru                                         78.7
           2    Samoa                                         74.8
           3    Tokelau                                       63.2
           4    Kiribati                                      50.3
           5    Marshall Islands                              46.0
           6    Federated States of Micronesia                44.0
           7    French Polynesia                              40.4
           8    Saudi Arabia                                  36.1
           9    Panama                                        33.9
          10    United States                                 33.7
          11    United Arab Emirates                          32.8
          12    Iraq                                          32.2
          13    Mexico                                        29.4
          14    Kuwait                                        29.0
          15    Egypt                                         28.9
          16    Bahrain                                       28.5
          17    New Zealand                                   25.4
          18    Macedonia                                     25.3
          19    Seychelles                                    25.1
          20    Australia                                     24.8
          21    United Kingdom                                24.0
ANCEL KEYS (1904-2004)
                        8

                        7                                                        US
                                                                     Canada
                        6
CHD (deaths per 1000)




                                                               Australia
                        5

                        4                                                    England & Wales

                        3

                        2
                                                     Italy
                        1
                                Japan
                        0
                            0           10         20                30               40       50
                                                 Percent calories from fat
CHANGES IN CIGARETTE CONSUMPTION MATCHES
                             THE CHANGING INCIDENCE OF HEART DISEASE
                            40      All heart disease                                                    5000
                                    Cigarette consumption
                            35
                                                                                                         4000




                                                                                                                Cigarettes per capita per year
Annual deaths per 100,000




                            30

                            25                                                                           3000
                            20

                            15                                                                           2000

                            10
                                                                                                         1000
                            5

                            0                                                                             0
                            1900   1910   1920   1930   1940   1950 1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010
                                                                  Year
COUNTRIES WHERE DATA WERE AVAILABLE
                                      WHEN KEYS PUBLISHED
                          8
                                                                                           US
                        “….the evidence from 22 countries for which data are available
                          7                              Finland                      Canada
                                                                                             US
                                                                                Canada
                        indicates that the association between the percentage of fat
                          6
                                                            Australia
CHD (deaths per 1000)




                                                                            Australia
                        calories available for consumption in the national diets and
                          5                                                                    NZ
                                                                Ireland
                        mortality from arteriosclerotic and degenerativeGreat Britain
                          4
                                                 Israel                                     heart disease is
                                                                                   England & Wales
                        not valid; the association is specific neither for dietary fat nor
                                                                  Switzerland
                                                                               W. Germany
                                                                                                Sweden
                          3                                                                   Chile
                        for heart disease mortality. Clearly this tenuous association
                                              Italy                   Italy                 Norway
                          2                                           Portugal     Holland
                        cannot Japan as much support
                                 serve                    Italy for the hypothesis which
                          1
                                             etiologic factor France
                        implicates fat as anCeylon Denmark in arteriosclerotic and
                               Japan                             Mexico
                        degenerative heart disease.”
                          0
                            0          10               20                  30               40         50
                                                           Percent calories from fat
                        Yerushalmy J, Hilleboe HE. Fat in the diet and mortality from heart disease; a methodologic note.
                        N Y State J Med 1957; 57: 2343-2354.
“….the evidence from 22 countries for which data are available
indicates that the association between the percentage of fat
calories available for consumption in the national diets and
mortality from arteriosclerotic and degenerative heart disease is
not valid; the association is specific neither for dietary fat nor
for heart disease mortality. Clearly this tenuous association
cannot serve as much support for the hypothesis which
implicates fat as an etiologic factor in arteriosclerotic and
degenerative heart disease.”
RICHARD NIXON
APPOINTS EARL   “Food Bill” insures that US
   BUTZ AS      farmers receive $5 billion per
 SECRETARY OF   year to grow corn and soy.
 AGRICULTURE    An additional $5 billion for
                other farmers.
“Food Bill” insures that US
farmers receive $5 billion per
year to grow corn and soy.
An additional $5 billion for
other farmers.
• Reduce consumption of fat
• Switch from saturated fat to vegetable fats
• Reduce cholesterol to 1 egg per day
• Eat more carbohydrate, especially grains
The McGovern Report was written by a junior staffer, a
vegan, who had no training in the nutritional sciences.
UNITED STATES SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON
 NUTRITION AND HUMAN NEEDS (1968-1977)


               “What right has the federal
               government to propose that the
               American people conduct a vast
               nutritional experiment, with
               themselves as subjects, on the
               strength of so very little evidence?”

               Philip Handler, National Academy of Science
UNITED STATES SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON
 NUTRITION AND HUMAN NEEDS (1968-1977)

               “Resolution of this dilemma turns on
               a value judgment. The dilemma so
               posed is not a scientific question; it is
               a question of ethics, morals, politics.
               Those who argue either position
               strongly are expressing their values;
               they are not making scientific
               judgments”.
               Philip Handler, National Academy of Science
UNITED STATES SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON
   NUTRITION AND HUMAN NEEDS (1968-1977)

“…a trial of the low fat diet recommended by the McGovern
Committee and the American Heart Association has never
been carried out. It seems that the proponents of this dietary
change are willing to advocate an untested diet to the nation
on the basis of suggestive evidence obtained in tests of a
different diet. This illogic is presumably justified by the belief
than benefits will be obtained, vis-à-vis                CHD
prevention, by any diet that causes a
reduction in plasma lipid levels”.
Ahrens EH. Dietary fats and coronary heart
disease: unfinished business. Lancet 1979; 2: 1345-1348.
2010:

 …no significant
 evidence for                                             During 5-23 y of follow-up of
 concluding that dietary                                  347,747 subjects, 11,006
                                                          developed CVD or stroke.
 saturated fat is                                         Intake of saturated fat was not
 associated with an                                       associated with an increased
 increased risk of                                        risk of CHD, stroke or CVD.
                                                          Consideration of age, sex and
 coronary heart disease                                   study quality did not change
 or cardiovascular                                        the results.
 disease.
Siri-Tarino PW, Sun Q, Hu FB, Krauss RM. Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies evaluating the
association of saturated fat with cardiovascular disease. Am J ClinNutr 2010; 91: 535-546.
2011:

There were no clear
effects of dietary fat
changes on total mortality
or cardiovascular mortality.
CONSUMPTION OF ANIMAL FAT IN USA FALLS AS
                                     INCIDENCE OF HEART DISEASE RISES
                            40                                                            All heart disease   15
                                                                                          Animal fat
                            35




                                                                                                                   Pounds animal fat per year per person
Annual deaths per 100,000




                            30
                                                                                                              10
                            25

                            20

                            15
                                                                                                              5
                            10

                            5

                            0                                                                                0
                            1900    1910   1920   1930   1940   1950 1960   1970   1980   1990    2000    2010
                                                                   Year
Economic             Within 5 years of     The presence of       A high fat diet
considerations       the widespread        the genetic           reverses
drove the adoption   adoption of these     predisposing          allknown
of the current       guidelines rates of   condition, carbohy    coronary risk

                                            CONCLUSION:
dietary guidelines   diabetes and          drate-                factors in persons
without proper       obesity increased     resistance, explain   with carbohydrate-
scientific           explosively.          s why large           resistance
evaluation or                              numbers of            whereas a high
proof.                             Keys was wrong.
                                           persons in
                                           predisposed
                                                                 carbohydrate diet
                                                                 worsens those

                           Fat in the diet does not cause
                                           populations           factors.
                                           become obese and
                                           diabetic when
                                    heart disease.
                                           exposed to a high
                                           carbohydrate diet.

                          Diet-heart hypothesis is wrong.
Economic             Within 5 years of     The presence of       A high fat diet
considerations       the widespread        the genetic           reverses
drove the adoption   adoption of these     predisposing          allknown
of the current       guidelines rates of   condition, carbohy    coronary risk
dietary guidelines   diabetes and          drate-                factors in persons
without proper       obesity increased     resistance, explain   with carbohydrate-
scientific           explosively.          s why large           resistance
evaluation or                              numbers of            whereas a high
proof.                                     persons in            carbohydrate diet
                                           predisposed           worsens those
                                           populations           factors.
                                           become obese and
                                           diabetic when
                                           exposed to a high
                                           carbohydrate diet.
MILLIONS OF YEARS
28
YEARS
INFLUENCE OF 1977 DIETARY GUIDELINES ON
                                            % OBESITY IN USA
                            50


                            40
                                       Dietary goals for
Percent with BMI> 30kg.m2




                                          Americans
                                           released
                            30


                            20

                                                                            45-64 years
                            10                                              30-44 years
                                                                            65 years & over
                                                                            18-29 years
                            0
                             1971-74      1976-80             1988-94   1999-00        2005-06
                                                                               2001-02
                                                           Year
DIABETES AND OBESITY RATES IN THE US HAVE SORED
      SINCE THE ADOPTION OF THE 1977 DIETARY GUIDELINES
% of Americans with diabetes                                  % of US children who are obese


     1980
              2010                                                 1980
                                                                              2010
                               % of US adults who are obese




                               1980

                                                2010
CHANGES IN US MACRONUTRIENT INTAKES – 1971 - 2000
                                             NHANES MEN                                             NHANES WOMEN
                       3000 CHO:FAT:PROT                                            3000 CHO:FAT:PROT
                                  42:37:17                     49:33:16                        45:36:17             52:33:15
                                                                          +6.8%
                       2500                                                         2500

                                                         Carbohydrate-induced Hyperphagia
                       2000                                                         2000
Energy intake (kcal)




                                                                                                                               +21.7%


                       1500                                                         1500
                                                                          +23.4%

                       1000                                                         1000                                       +38.4%
                                                                          -5%
                                                                                                                               +11%
                       500                                                           500
                                                                          -14%
                                                                                                                               +3%
                         0                                                             0
                         71-74            76-80        88-94       99-2000             71-74        76-80   88-94       99-2000
                                 Intake           Carbohydrates           Fat      Saturated fat
            Hite AH, Feinman RD, Guzman GE, et al. In the face of contradictory evidence: report of the
Economic             Within 5 years of     The presence of       A high fat diet      The Woman’s

                                                        CONCLUSION:
considerations       the widespread        the genetic           reverses             Health Initiative
drove the adoption   adoption of these     predisposing          allknown             Randomized
of the current       guidelines rates of   condition, carbohy    coronary risk        Controlled Dietary
dietary guidelines   diabetes and          drate-                factors in persons   Modification Trial
without proper
scientific
                     obesity increased
                     explosively.
                                           Explosive increase in rates
                                           resistance, explain
                                           s why large
                                                                 with carbohydrate-
                                                                 resistance
                                                                                      (WHIRCDMT) of
                                                                                      which my
evaluation or
proof.
                                              of obesity and Type II
                                           numbers of
                                           persons in
                                                                 whereas a high
                                                                 carbohydrate diet
                                                                                      opponent was
                                                                                      Project Leader
                                              diabetes in the US has
                                           predisposed
                                           populations
                                                                 worsens those
                                                                 factors.
                                                                                      proves that the
                                                                                      prescription of a
                                                been caused by an
                                           become obese and
                                           diabetic when
                                                                                      high carbohydrate
                                                                                      diet to persons

                                            increased carbohydrate
                                           exposed to a high
                                           carbohydrate diet.
                                                                                      with either known
                                                                                      heart disease or

                                            intake resulting from the                 diabetes
                                                                                      constitutes

                                             1977 Dietary Guidelines
                                                                                      medical
                                                                                      malpractice.
Economic             Within 5 years of     The presence of       A high fat diet
considerations       the widespread        the genetic           reverses
drove the adoption   adoption of these     predisposing          allknown
of the current       guidelines rates of   condition, carbohy    coronary risk
dietary guidelines   diabetes and          drate-                factors in persons
without proper       obesity increased     resistance, explain   with carbohydrate-
scientific           explosively.          s why large           resistance
evaluation or                              numbers of            whereas a high
proof.                                     persons in            carbohydrate diet
                                           predisposed           worsens those
                                           populations           factors.
                                           become obese and
                                           diabetic when
                                           exposed to a high
                                           carbohydrate diet.
WHY DOES OBESITY OCCUR ONLY IN SOME WHEN ALL EAT
           HIGH CARBOHYDRATE DIETS?




      Largest man in the    American police
        world in 1903        officer in 2012
Obesity cannot be due simply to doing too little
exercise.
In a homeostatically-regulated system, any
reduction in energy expenditure will be matched
by an exactly equal reduction in energy intake.
Conversely any sustained increase in energy
consumption should be matched by an increase
in energy expenditure.
Hence the problem must be that the homeostat
has been broken by the 1977 Dietary Guidelines.
THE CONDITON OF CARBOHYDRATE RESISTANCE
                                              KF Petersen, S Dufour, DB Savage. PNAS. 104; 12587–12594, 2007.
                                     180    Meal      Meal                                                                 250     Meal           Meal
                                            10am     2:30pm            Insulin-resistant                                           10am           2:30pm
Plasma glucose concentrations




                                                                                           Plasma insulin concentrations
                                     160                               Insulin-sensitive
                                                                                                                           200
                                     140
                                                                                                                           150




                                                                                                     (µU/mL)
           (mg/dL)




                                     120
                                                                                                                           100
                                     100

                                      80                                                                                   50

                                      60                                                                                    0
                                           10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 10pm 12am 2am 4am 6am                                           10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 10pm 12am 2am 4am 6am

                                     180                                                                                   28                           P = 0.00005
Plasma triglyceride concentrations




                                     160                                                                                   24
                                     140
                                                                                           De novo lipogenesis
                                                                                                                           20
                                     120
                                                                                                (mg/dL)                    16
             (mg/dL)




                                     100
                                     80                                                                                    12
                                     60
                                                                                                                            8
                                     40
                                     20                                                                                     4
                                      0                                                                                     0
                                           10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 10pm 12am 2am 4am 6am                                                    Insulin sensitive           Insulin resistant
Petersen KF, Dufour S, Savage DB, et al. The role of skeletal muscle insulin resistance in the
The metabolism of every human is
          not the same.
    Those with carbohydrate
    resistance are unable to
 metabolize carbohydrate safely.
METABOLIC PROFILE OF PERSONS WITH CR
 INGESTING A HIGH CARBOHYDRATE DIET
           Elevated blood glucose concentrations
           Elevated blood insulin concentrations
              Elevated HbA1c concentrations
         Elevated blood triglyceride concentrations
   Reduced blood HDL-cholesterol concentrations (HDL-C)
    Increased small LDL-cholesterol particles (LDL-C P)
          Increased blood uric acid concentrations
     Increased blood ultrasensitive CRP concentrations
                    Additional features:
                      Fatty liver
                      Obesity
                      Hypertension
BLOOD RISK FACTORS FOR CORONARY HEART DISEASE
                       Total Cholesterol
                      Ultrasensitive CRP
                          Fibrinogen
                           Glucose
                            HbA1c
                        Homocysteine
                        HDL-cholesterol
                       LDL-Cholesterol
            LDL- Cholesterol particle size or number
                             Lp (a)
                            Insulin
                  Omega 6 to Omega 3 ratios
                         Triglycerides
                           Uric Acid
THE DIETARY FAT HYPOTHESIS FOR HEART DISEASE
             Atherogenic Dyslipidaemia (AD)




                  Increased LDL
  High fat        cholesterol                 Arterial
      diet        Increased                   “clogging”
                  triglycerides
                  Reduced HDL
                  cholesterol


OBESITY, DIABETES, HYPERTENSION, GOUT, METABOLIC
  SYNDROME ARE SEPARATE/DISTINCT DISEASES
RELATIVE IMPORTANCE (BASED ON HAZARD RATIO) OF
DIFFERENT RISK FACTORS FOR CORONARY HEART DISEASE

                    RISK FACTOR               HAZARD RATIO (RANGE)
                    Diabetes                      2.04 (1.76 – 2.35)

                    Age                           1.87 (1.73 – 2.02)

                    Current smoking               1.79 (1.66 – 1.94)

                    Systolic blood pressure       1.31 (1.26 – 1.37)

                    Total [Cholesterol]           1.22 (1.17 – 1.27)

                    [Triglyceride]                1.19 (1.15 – 1.23)

                    [HDL-Cholesterol]             0.83 (0.78 – 0.87)

  Di AE, Gao P, Pennells L, et al. Lipid-related markers and cardiovascular disease
PREDICTIVE VALUE OF HbA1c FOR CORONARY HEART
                                           DISEASE EVENTS AND ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY
                                         8
                                                      Coronary heart disease events
                                         7            All-cause mortality
  Age-adjusted relative risk (95% CI)




                                         6

                                         5
                                                    Carbohydrate resistance
                                         4              “Pre-diabetes”

                                         3

                                         2

                                         1                                                                Total Cholesterol
                                                                                                          Hazard Ratio
                                         0
                                             <5.0          5-5.4       5.5-5.9    6.0-6.4      6.5-6.9      >7.0        Known
                                                                                                                       diabetes
                                                                      Hemoglobin A1C concentrations (%)
Khaw KT, Wareham N, Bingham S, et al. Association of hemoglobin A1c with cardiovascular disease and mortality in adults:
CUMULATIVE INCIDENCE OF IHD FOR DIFFERENT
                                      RANDOM BLOOD GLUCOSE CONCENTRATIONS
                                     Ischemic heart disease                          Myocardial infarction
                               100
                                              >11mmol/L (>198 mg/dL)
                               90             9-10.9 mmol/L (162-197 mg/dL)
                                              7-8.9 mmol/L (126-161 mg/dL)
                               80             5-6.9 mmol/L (90-125 mg/dL)
                                              <5 mmol/L (<90 mg/dL)
    Cumulative incidence (%)




                               70 Overall log rank p<0.001
                               60
                               50
                               40
                               30
                               20
                               10
                                0
                                 20      30     40    50 60 70         80     90 100 20   30   40   50 60 70         80     90 100
                                                       Age (Years)                                   Age (Years)
Benn M et al. Non-fasting glucose, ischemic heart disease and myocardial infarction. Journal of the American College of Cardiology 59; 2012.
BLOOD GLUCOSE (mmol/L) IN THE NORMAL RANGE PREDICTS
              CARDIOVASCULAR OUTCOME
               2.0




               1.5
Hazard Ratio




                                                                        Total Cholesterol
               1.0                                                      Hazard Ratio




               0.5
                     Group 1   Group 2      Group 3       Group 4      Group 5           IFG
                     2.8-4.4   4.5-4.6      4.7-4.9       5.0-5.2      5.3-5.5         5.6-7.0
        Shaye K, Amir T, Shlomo S, Yechezkel S. Fasting glucose levels within the high normal range
                                                                         .
Economic
considerations
                     Within 5 years of
                     the widespread
                                           The presence of
                                           the genetic             CONCLUSION:
                                                                A high fat diet
                                                                reverses
                                                                allknown
                                                                                     The Woman’s
                                                                                     Health Initiative
drove the adoption   adoption of these     predisposing                              Randomized
of the current
dietary guidelines
                     guidelines rates of
                     diabetes and
                                           condition,
                                           carbohydrate-
                                                                    Their abnormal
                                                                coronary risk
                                                                factors in persons
                                                                                     Controlled Dietary
                                                                                     Modification Trial
without proper       obesity increased     resistance,               carbohydrate
                                                                with carbohydrate-   (WHIRCDMT) of
scientific
evaluation or
                     explosively.          explains why large
                                           numbers of            metabolism explains
                                                                resistance
                                                                whereas a high
                                                                                     which my
                                                                                     opponent was
proof.                                     persons in
                                           predisposed
                                                                    why those with
                                                                carbohydrate diet
                                                                worsens those
                                                                                     Project Leader
                                                                                     proves that the
                                           populations               carbohydrate
                                                                factors.             prescription of a
                                           become obese and
                                           diabetic when          resistance develop high carbohydrate
                                                                                     diet to persons
                                           exposed to a high
                                           carbohydrate diet.
                                                                 obesity, diabetes and
                                                                                     with either known
                                                                                     heart disease or
                                                                coronary heart disease
                                                                                     diabetes
                                                                  when eating a high constitutes
                                                                                     medical
                                                                  carbohydrate diet. malpractice.
Economic             Within 5 years of     The presence of       A high fat diet
considerations       the widespread        the genetic           reverses
drove the adoption   adoption of these     predisposing          allknown
of the current       guidelines rates of   condition, carbohy    coronary risk
dietary guidelines   diabetes and          drate-                factors in persons
without proper       obesity increased     resistance, explain   with carbohydrate-
scientific           explosively.          s why large           resistance
evaluation or                              numbers of            whereas a high
proof.                                     persons in            carbohydrate diet
                                           predisposed           worsens those
                                           populations           factors.
                                           become obese and
                                           diabetic when
                                           exposed to a high
                                           carbohydrate diet.
A HIGH FAT DIET REVERSES ALL CORONARY RISK
         FACTORS MORE EFFECTIVELY THAN A LOW FAT DIET
      ApoB/ApoA-1                                                                      High Carbohydrate Low Fat
                         ApoB                                                          Low Carbohydrate High Fat
   Total Saturated Fatty Acids                                                         12% CHO 60% Fat KetogenicDIet

   Small LDL-C particles
           Triglyceride/HDL-C
       HDL-C
             Triglyceride AUC
                   Triglyceride
                         Leptin
                        HOMA
                        Insulin
                       Glucose
                 Abdominal fat
                   Body mass
                  10              0         -10          -20          -30        -40            -50          -60
                                                                      Percent change
Volek JS, Fernandez ML, Feinman RD, Phinney SD. Dietary carbohydrate restriction induces a unique metabolic state positively
“Meta-analysis … on data obtained in 1,141 obese
patients, showed the low carbohydrate diet to be
associated with significant decreases in body weight,
body mass index, abdominal circumference, systolic
blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, plasma
triglycerides, fasting plasma glucose,
glycatedhaemoglobin, plasma insulin and plasma C-
reactive protein, as well as an increase in high-density
lipoprotein cholesterol. Low-density lipoprotein
cholesterol and creatininedid not change
significantly,whereas limited data exist concerning
plasma uric acid”.
Santos FL et al.
THE DIETARY CARBOHYDRATE HYPOTHESIS FOR HEART DISEASE
Hyperglycaemic HyperinsulinaemicAtherogenic Dyslipidaemia (HHAD)

                                          Low
                      Glucose           Omega
                      Insulin           3, high
                                        Omega 6
           High       Triglycerides
  carbohydrate        HDL-C                  • Arterial inflammation
         *
 (fructose) diet      Small LDL-C            • Metabolic syndrome
                        particles             • Coronary heart
                                                disease/stroke
                      Uric acid*
                                              • Obesity
                      CRP                    • Diabetes
                     Fatty liver              • Hypertension


        ONE CAUSE, ONE TREATMENT FOR ALL CONDITIONS
Economic             Within 5 years of     The presence of the    A high fat diet


     CONCLUSION:
considerations       the widespread        genetic                reverses
drove the adoption   adoption of these     predisposing           allknown
of the current       guidelines rates of   condition, carbohyd    coronary risk
dietary guidelines   diabetes and          rate-                  factors in persons
without proper       obesity increased     resistance, explains   with carbohydrate-
scientific           explosively.          why large numbers      resistance
evaluation or                              of persons in          whereas a high
proof.                                     predisposed            carbohydrate diet
                                           populations become     worsens those
                                           obese and diabetic     factors.
                                           when exposed to a
                                           high carbohydrate
                                           diet.
The 48 836-person
Economic             Within 5 years of     The presence of       A high fat diet
                                                                                      Woman’s Health
considerations       the widespread        the genetic           reverses
                                                                                      Initiative of which
drove the adoption   adoption of these     predisposing          allknown
                                                                                      my opponent was
of the current       guidelines rates of   condition, carbohy    coronary risk
                                                                                      the Project
dietary guidelines   diabetes and          drate-                factors in persons
                                                                                      Director proves
without proper       obesity increased     resistance, explain   with carbohydrate-
                                                                                      that the 1977 US
scientific           explosively.          s why large           resistance
                                                                                      Dietary Guidelines
evaluation or                              numbers of            whereas a high
                                                                                      accelerate disease
proof.                                     persons in            carbohydrate diet
                                                                                      progression in
                                           predisposed           worsens those
                                                                                      persons with
                                           populations           factors.
                                                                                      either known heart
                                           become obese and
                                                                                      disease or
                                           diabetic when
                                                                                      diabetes. Thus his
                                           exposed to a high
                                                                                      landmark study
                                           carbohydrate diet.
                                                                                      provides the
                                                                                      definitive evidence
                                                                                      disproving Keys’
                                                                                      false diet-heart
                                                                                      hypothesis.
WOMEN’S HEALTH DIETARY MODIFICATION TRIAL
                                 48 836 post-menopausal women


               40% assigned to low fat                          60% to self-selected
                   eating pattern                                dietary behaviour


              Subjects reduced energy from                 Control subjects received a copy
            fat to 20% and from saturated fat                  of Dietary Guidelines for
              to 7% and increased fruit and                  Americans “as well as other
             vegetable intake to at least five              health-related material but had
            servings per day and grains to at                 no contact with nutritional
                 least six servings per day.                       interventionists”.



                               Subjects were followed for 8.1 years.

Howard BV, Van HL, Hsia J, et al. Low-fat dietary pattern and risk of cardiovascular disease: the Women's
Conclusion: The study “did not
significantly reduce the risk of coronary
heart disease, stroke, or cardiovascular
disease in postmenopausal women and
achieved only modest effects on
cardiovascular risk factors”.


  But was that all they found?
“...THE HR FOR THE 3.4%
                            OF WOMEN WITH CVD AT
                            BASELINE WAS 1.26 (95%
                            CI 1.03-1.54)....”

This is entirely predictable as a high carbohydrate diet produces
HHAD
(hyperglycaemichyperinsulinaemicatherogenicdyslipidaemia) in
those who are metabolically vulnerable.
“The results of this study do not change
established recommendations on disease
prevention. Women should continue to …
work with their doctors to reduce their
risks for heart disease including following
a diet low in saturated fat, trans fat and
cholesterol”.
E Nabel, Director, NHLBI.
“This study shows that just reducing total fat
intake does not go far enough to have an
impact on heart disease risk. While the
participants’ overall change in LDL “bad”
cholesterol was small, we saw trends towards
greater reductions in cholesterol and heart
disease risk in women eating less saturated
and trans fat”.
J Rossouw, Project Director, WHIRCDMT
THE UPTON SINCLAIR THEOREM


“It is difficult to get
a man to understand
something, when his
salary depends
upon his not
understanding it”.
Shikany JM, Margolis KL, Pettinger M, et al. Effects of a low-fat dietary intervention on glucose, insulin, and insulin
resistance
“….women with diabetes at baseline did
experience adverse glycemic effects of the low-
fat diet, which indicated that


unless accompanied by additional
recommendations to guide carbohydrate
intake”.
Shikany JM et al.
The Look AHEAD Trial was terminated
prematurely in October 2012 after 11.5
years as it was found that even when
combined with exercise, the Prudent diet
had no measureble effect on development
of arterial disease and its complications in
persons with Type 2 Diabetes. Continuing
the trial was considered “pointless”.
CONCLUSION:
Economic             Within 5 years of     The presence of       A high fat diet      The 48 836-person
considerations       the widespread        the genetic           reverses             Woman’s Health
drove the adoption   adoption of these     predisposing          allknown             Initiative proves
of the current       guidelines rates of   condition, carbohy    coronary risk        that the 1977 US
    The WHI provides the definitive
dietary guidelines
without proper
                     diabetes and
                     obesity increased
                                           drate-
                                           resistance, explain
                                                                 factors in persons
                                                                 with carbohydrate-
                                                                                      Dietary Guidelines
                                                                                      accelerate disease
     evidence from a randomized
scientific
evaluation or
                     explosively.          s why large
                                           numbers of
                                                                 resistance
                                                                 whereas a high
                                                                                      progression in
                                                                                      persons with
proof.controlled clinical trial that       persons in
                                           predisposed
                                                                 carbohydrate diet
                                                                 worsens those
                                                                                      either known heart
                                                                                      disease or
 disproves the diet-heart hypothesis.      populations
                                           become obese and
                                                                 factors.             diabetes. Thus the
                                                                                      research of my
 Following the 1977 US “Prudent” Diet      diabetic when
                                           exposed to a high
                                                                                      opponent provides
                                                                                      the definitive
 Guidelines worsens the outcome of         carbohydrate diet.                         evidence that
                                                                                      disproves Keys’

  those who are the most vulnerable                                                   false diet-heart
                                                                                      hypothesis.

    because they have either heart
         disease or diabetes.
Economic             Within 5 years of     The presence of       A high fat diet      The 48 836-person
considerations       the widespread        the genetic           reverses             Woman’s Health
drove the adoption   adoption of these     predisposing          allknown             Initiative of which
of the current       guidelines rates of   condition, carbohy    coronary risk        my opponent was

                                    CONCLUSION:
dietary guidelines   diabetes and          drate-                factors in persons   the Project Leader
without proper       obesity increased     resistance, explain   with carbohydrate-   proves that the
scientific           explosively.          s why large           resistance           1977 US Dietary
evaluation or                              numbers of                                 Guidelines
proof.  The Diet Heart Hypothesis of Ancel Keys is WRONG.
                                           persons in
                                                                 whereas a high
                                                                 carbohydrate diet    accelerate disease
                                           predisposed           worsens those        progression in
    Its widespread promotion in the name of good science
                                           populations           factors.             persons with

    represents the single greatest error in medicine in the
                                           become obese and
                                           diabetic when
                                                                                      either known heart
                                                                                      disease or
                        past 60 years.     exposed to a high
                                           carbohydrate diet.
                                                                                      diabetes. Thus
                                                                                      that landmark
                                                                                      study provides the
                                                                                      definitive evidence
                                                                                      disproving Keys’
                                                                                      false diet-heart
                                                                                      hypothesis.

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Cholesterol is not an important risk factor for heart disease and current dietary recommendations do more harm than good, by Tim Noakes

  • 1. @ProfTimNoakes Slides available on www.health.uct.ac.za Professor TD Noakes OMS, MBChB, MD, DSc, PhD (hc), FACSM, (hon) FFSEM (UK) Discovery Health Professor of Exercise and Sports Science MRC/UCT Research Unit for Exercise Science and Sports Medicine, University of Cape Town and Sports Science Institute of South Africa
  • 2.
  • 3. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet considerations the widespread the genetic reverses drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown of the current guidelines rates of condition, coronary risk dietary guidelines diabetes and carbohydrate- factors in persons without proper obesity increased resistance, with carbohydrate- scientific explosively. explains why large resistance evaluation or numbers of whereas a high proof. persons in carbohydrate diet predisposed worsens those populations factors. become obese and diabetic when exposed to a high carbohydrate diet.
  • 4. TODAY 2.5 - 3.5 MILLION YEARS AGO Omnivore Vegetarian Homo sapiens Australopithecus Africanus
  • 5. This change For 3.5 million years occurred as humans we have done very became the best well without being mid-day persistence told what we should hunters in the eat animal kingdom
  • 6. TRIBE / COUNTRY HEIGHT (cm) Cheyenne 176.7 Arapaho 174.3 Crow 173.6 Sioux 172.8 Blackfeet 172.0 Australia 172.0 Canada 171.0 United States 171.0 Norway 169.0 United Kingdom 166.0 Russia 165.0 Italy 161.0 PLAINS INDIANS HUNTING BUFFALO BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE WHITE MAN Steckel RH, Prince JM. Tallest in the world: Native Americans of the Great Plains in the nineteenth century. Am Econ Rev 2001; 91: 287-294.
  • 7. MODERN PLAINS INDIANS HUNTING THE WHITE MAN’S DIET
  • 8. THE COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF OBESE ADULTS Rank Country Adult obesity (%) 1 Nauru 78.7 2 Samoa 74.8 3 Tokelau 63.2 4 Kiribati 50.3 5 Marshall Islands 46.0 6 Federated States of Micronesia 44.0 7 French Polynesia 40.4 8 Saudi Arabia 36.1 9 Panama 33.9 10 United States 33.7 11 United Arab Emirates 32.8 12 Iraq 32.2 13 Mexico 29.4 14 Kuwait 29.0 15 Egypt 28.9 16 Bahrain 28.5 17 New Zealand 25.4 18 Macedonia 25.3 19 Seychelles 25.1 20 Australia 24.8 21 United Kingdom 24.0
  • 9. ANCEL KEYS (1904-2004) 8 7 US Canada 6 CHD (deaths per 1000) Australia 5 4 England & Wales 3 2 Italy 1 Japan 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Percent calories from fat
  • 10. CHANGES IN CIGARETTE CONSUMPTION MATCHES THE CHANGING INCIDENCE OF HEART DISEASE 40 All heart disease 5000 Cigarette consumption 35 4000 Cigarettes per capita per year Annual deaths per 100,000 30 25 3000 20 15 2000 10 1000 5 0 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
  • 11. COUNTRIES WHERE DATA WERE AVAILABLE WHEN KEYS PUBLISHED 8 US “….the evidence from 22 countries for which data are available 7 Finland Canada US Canada indicates that the association between the percentage of fat 6 Australia CHD (deaths per 1000) Australia calories available for consumption in the national diets and 5 NZ Ireland mortality from arteriosclerotic and degenerativeGreat Britain 4 Israel heart disease is England & Wales not valid; the association is specific neither for dietary fat nor Switzerland W. Germany Sweden 3 Chile for heart disease mortality. Clearly this tenuous association Italy Italy Norway 2 Portugal Holland cannot Japan as much support serve Italy for the hypothesis which 1 etiologic factor France implicates fat as anCeylon Denmark in arteriosclerotic and Japan Mexico degenerative heart disease.” 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Percent calories from fat Yerushalmy J, Hilleboe HE. Fat in the diet and mortality from heart disease; a methodologic note. N Y State J Med 1957; 57: 2343-2354.
  • 12. “….the evidence from 22 countries for which data are available indicates that the association between the percentage of fat calories available for consumption in the national diets and mortality from arteriosclerotic and degenerative heart disease is not valid; the association is specific neither for dietary fat nor for heart disease mortality. Clearly this tenuous association cannot serve as much support for the hypothesis which implicates fat as an etiologic factor in arteriosclerotic and degenerative heart disease.”
  • 13. RICHARD NIXON APPOINTS EARL “Food Bill” insures that US BUTZ AS farmers receive $5 billion per SECRETARY OF year to grow corn and soy. AGRICULTURE An additional $5 billion for other farmers.
  • 14. “Food Bill” insures that US farmers receive $5 billion per year to grow corn and soy. An additional $5 billion for other farmers.
  • 15. • Reduce consumption of fat • Switch from saturated fat to vegetable fats • Reduce cholesterol to 1 egg per day • Eat more carbohydrate, especially grains The McGovern Report was written by a junior staffer, a vegan, who had no training in the nutritional sciences.
  • 16. UNITED STATES SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON NUTRITION AND HUMAN NEEDS (1968-1977) “What right has the federal government to propose that the American people conduct a vast nutritional experiment, with themselves as subjects, on the strength of so very little evidence?” Philip Handler, National Academy of Science
  • 17. UNITED STATES SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON NUTRITION AND HUMAN NEEDS (1968-1977) “Resolution of this dilemma turns on a value judgment. The dilemma so posed is not a scientific question; it is a question of ethics, morals, politics. Those who argue either position strongly are expressing their values; they are not making scientific judgments”. Philip Handler, National Academy of Science
  • 18. UNITED STATES SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE ON NUTRITION AND HUMAN NEEDS (1968-1977) “…a trial of the low fat diet recommended by the McGovern Committee and the American Heart Association has never been carried out. It seems that the proponents of this dietary change are willing to advocate an untested diet to the nation on the basis of suggestive evidence obtained in tests of a different diet. This illogic is presumably justified by the belief than benefits will be obtained, vis-à-vis CHD prevention, by any diet that causes a reduction in plasma lipid levels”. Ahrens EH. Dietary fats and coronary heart disease: unfinished business. Lancet 1979; 2: 1345-1348.
  • 19. 2010: …no significant evidence for During 5-23 y of follow-up of concluding that dietary 347,747 subjects, 11,006 developed CVD or stroke. saturated fat is Intake of saturated fat was not associated with an associated with an increased increased risk of risk of CHD, stroke or CVD. Consideration of age, sex and coronary heart disease study quality did not change or cardiovascular the results. disease. Siri-Tarino PW, Sun Q, Hu FB, Krauss RM. Meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies evaluating the association of saturated fat with cardiovascular disease. Am J ClinNutr 2010; 91: 535-546.
  • 20. 2011: There were no clear effects of dietary fat changes on total mortality or cardiovascular mortality.
  • 21. CONSUMPTION OF ANIMAL FAT IN USA FALLS AS INCIDENCE OF HEART DISEASE RISES 40 All heart disease 15 Animal fat 35 Pounds animal fat per year per person Annual deaths per 100,000 30 10 25 20 15 5 10 5 0 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
  • 22. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet considerations the widespread the genetic reverses drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk CONCLUSION: dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons without proper obesity increased resistance, explain with carbohydrate- scientific explosively. s why large resistance evaluation or numbers of whereas a high proof. Keys was wrong. persons in predisposed carbohydrate diet worsens those Fat in the diet does not cause populations factors. become obese and diabetic when heart disease. exposed to a high carbohydrate diet. Diet-heart hypothesis is wrong.
  • 23. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet considerations the widespread the genetic reverses drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons without proper obesity increased resistance, explain with carbohydrate- scientific explosively. s why large resistance evaluation or numbers of whereas a high proof. persons in carbohydrate diet predisposed worsens those populations factors. become obese and diabetic when exposed to a high carbohydrate diet.
  • 26. INFLUENCE OF 1977 DIETARY GUIDELINES ON % OBESITY IN USA 50 40 Dietary goals for Percent with BMI> 30kg.m2 Americans released 30 20 45-64 years 10 30-44 years 65 years & over 18-29 years 0 1971-74 1976-80 1988-94 1999-00 2005-06 2001-02 Year
  • 27. DIABETES AND OBESITY RATES IN THE US HAVE SORED SINCE THE ADOPTION OF THE 1977 DIETARY GUIDELINES % of Americans with diabetes % of US children who are obese 1980 2010 1980 2010 % of US adults who are obese 1980 2010
  • 28. CHANGES IN US MACRONUTRIENT INTAKES – 1971 - 2000 NHANES MEN NHANES WOMEN 3000 CHO:FAT:PROT 3000 CHO:FAT:PROT 42:37:17 49:33:16 45:36:17 52:33:15 +6.8% 2500 2500 Carbohydrate-induced Hyperphagia 2000 2000 Energy intake (kcal) +21.7% 1500 1500 +23.4% 1000 1000 +38.4% -5% +11% 500 500 -14% +3% 0 0 71-74 76-80 88-94 99-2000 71-74 76-80 88-94 99-2000 Intake Carbohydrates Fat Saturated fat Hite AH, Feinman RD, Guzman GE, et al. In the face of contradictory evidence: report of the
  • 29. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet The Woman’s CONCLUSION: considerations the widespread the genetic reverses Health Initiative drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown Randomized of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk Controlled Dietary dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons Modification Trial without proper scientific obesity increased explosively. Explosive increase in rates resistance, explain s why large with carbohydrate- resistance (WHIRCDMT) of which my evaluation or proof. of obesity and Type II numbers of persons in whereas a high carbohydrate diet opponent was Project Leader diabetes in the US has predisposed populations worsens those factors. proves that the prescription of a been caused by an become obese and diabetic when high carbohydrate diet to persons increased carbohydrate exposed to a high carbohydrate diet. with either known heart disease or intake resulting from the diabetes constitutes 1977 Dietary Guidelines medical malpractice.
  • 30. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet considerations the widespread the genetic reverses drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons without proper obesity increased resistance, explain with carbohydrate- scientific explosively. s why large resistance evaluation or numbers of whereas a high proof. persons in carbohydrate diet predisposed worsens those populations factors. become obese and diabetic when exposed to a high carbohydrate diet.
  • 31. WHY DOES OBESITY OCCUR ONLY IN SOME WHEN ALL EAT HIGH CARBOHYDRATE DIETS? Largest man in the American police world in 1903 officer in 2012
  • 32. Obesity cannot be due simply to doing too little exercise. In a homeostatically-regulated system, any reduction in energy expenditure will be matched by an exactly equal reduction in energy intake. Conversely any sustained increase in energy consumption should be matched by an increase in energy expenditure. Hence the problem must be that the homeostat has been broken by the 1977 Dietary Guidelines.
  • 33. THE CONDITON OF CARBOHYDRATE RESISTANCE KF Petersen, S Dufour, DB Savage. PNAS. 104; 12587–12594, 2007. 180 Meal Meal 250 Meal Meal 10am 2:30pm Insulin-resistant 10am 2:30pm Plasma glucose concentrations Plasma insulin concentrations 160 Insulin-sensitive 200 140 150 (µU/mL) (mg/dL) 120 100 100 80 50 60 0 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 10pm 12am 2am 4am 6am 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 10pm 12am 2am 4am 6am 180 28 P = 0.00005 Plasma triglyceride concentrations 160 24 140 De novo lipogenesis 20 120 (mg/dL) 16 (mg/dL) 100 80 12 60 8 40 20 4 0 0 10am 12pm 2pm 4pm 6pm 10pm 12am 2am 4am 6am Insulin sensitive Insulin resistant Petersen KF, Dufour S, Savage DB, et al. The role of skeletal muscle insulin resistance in the
  • 34. The metabolism of every human is not the same. Those with carbohydrate resistance are unable to metabolize carbohydrate safely.
  • 35. METABOLIC PROFILE OF PERSONS WITH CR INGESTING A HIGH CARBOHYDRATE DIET Elevated blood glucose concentrations Elevated blood insulin concentrations Elevated HbA1c concentrations Elevated blood triglyceride concentrations Reduced blood HDL-cholesterol concentrations (HDL-C) Increased small LDL-cholesterol particles (LDL-C P) Increased blood uric acid concentrations Increased blood ultrasensitive CRP concentrations Additional features: Fatty liver Obesity Hypertension
  • 36. BLOOD RISK FACTORS FOR CORONARY HEART DISEASE Total Cholesterol Ultrasensitive CRP Fibrinogen Glucose HbA1c Homocysteine HDL-cholesterol LDL-Cholesterol LDL- Cholesterol particle size or number Lp (a) Insulin Omega 6 to Omega 3 ratios Triglycerides Uric Acid
  • 37. THE DIETARY FAT HYPOTHESIS FOR HEART DISEASE Atherogenic Dyslipidaemia (AD) Increased LDL High fat cholesterol Arterial diet Increased “clogging” triglycerides Reduced HDL cholesterol OBESITY, DIABETES, HYPERTENSION, GOUT, METABOLIC SYNDROME ARE SEPARATE/DISTINCT DISEASES
  • 38. RELATIVE IMPORTANCE (BASED ON HAZARD RATIO) OF DIFFERENT RISK FACTORS FOR CORONARY HEART DISEASE RISK FACTOR HAZARD RATIO (RANGE) Diabetes 2.04 (1.76 – 2.35) Age 1.87 (1.73 – 2.02) Current smoking 1.79 (1.66 – 1.94) Systolic blood pressure 1.31 (1.26 – 1.37) Total [Cholesterol] 1.22 (1.17 – 1.27) [Triglyceride] 1.19 (1.15 – 1.23) [HDL-Cholesterol] 0.83 (0.78 – 0.87) Di AE, Gao P, Pennells L, et al. Lipid-related markers and cardiovascular disease
  • 39. PREDICTIVE VALUE OF HbA1c FOR CORONARY HEART DISEASE EVENTS AND ALL-CAUSE MORTALITY 8 Coronary heart disease events 7 All-cause mortality Age-adjusted relative risk (95% CI) 6 5 Carbohydrate resistance 4 “Pre-diabetes” 3 2 1 Total Cholesterol Hazard Ratio 0 <5.0 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 6.0-6.4 6.5-6.9 >7.0 Known diabetes Hemoglobin A1C concentrations (%) Khaw KT, Wareham N, Bingham S, et al. Association of hemoglobin A1c with cardiovascular disease and mortality in adults:
  • 40.
  • 41. CUMULATIVE INCIDENCE OF IHD FOR DIFFERENT RANDOM BLOOD GLUCOSE CONCENTRATIONS Ischemic heart disease Myocardial infarction 100 >11mmol/L (>198 mg/dL) 90 9-10.9 mmol/L (162-197 mg/dL) 7-8.9 mmol/L (126-161 mg/dL) 80 5-6.9 mmol/L (90-125 mg/dL) <5 mmol/L (<90 mg/dL) Cumulative incidence (%) 70 Overall log rank p<0.001 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Age (Years) Age (Years) Benn M et al. Non-fasting glucose, ischemic heart disease and myocardial infarction. Journal of the American College of Cardiology 59; 2012.
  • 42. BLOOD GLUCOSE (mmol/L) IN THE NORMAL RANGE PREDICTS CARDIOVASCULAR OUTCOME 2.0 1.5 Hazard Ratio Total Cholesterol 1.0 Hazard Ratio 0.5 Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 IFG 2.8-4.4 4.5-4.6 4.7-4.9 5.0-5.2 5.3-5.5 5.6-7.0 Shaye K, Amir T, Shlomo S, Yechezkel S. Fasting glucose levels within the high normal range .
  • 43. Economic considerations Within 5 years of the widespread The presence of the genetic CONCLUSION: A high fat diet reverses allknown The Woman’s Health Initiative drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing Randomized of the current dietary guidelines guidelines rates of diabetes and condition, carbohydrate- Their abnormal coronary risk factors in persons Controlled Dietary Modification Trial without proper obesity increased resistance, carbohydrate with carbohydrate- (WHIRCDMT) of scientific evaluation or explosively. explains why large numbers of metabolism explains resistance whereas a high which my opponent was proof. persons in predisposed why those with carbohydrate diet worsens those Project Leader proves that the populations carbohydrate factors. prescription of a become obese and diabetic when resistance develop high carbohydrate diet to persons exposed to a high carbohydrate diet. obesity, diabetes and with either known heart disease or coronary heart disease diabetes when eating a high constitutes medical carbohydrate diet. malpractice.
  • 44. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet considerations the widespread the genetic reverses drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons without proper obesity increased resistance, explain with carbohydrate- scientific explosively. s why large resistance evaluation or numbers of whereas a high proof. persons in carbohydrate diet predisposed worsens those populations factors. become obese and diabetic when exposed to a high carbohydrate diet.
  • 45.
  • 46. A HIGH FAT DIET REVERSES ALL CORONARY RISK FACTORS MORE EFFECTIVELY THAN A LOW FAT DIET ApoB/ApoA-1 High Carbohydrate Low Fat ApoB Low Carbohydrate High Fat Total Saturated Fatty Acids 12% CHO 60% Fat KetogenicDIet Small LDL-C particles Triglyceride/HDL-C HDL-C Triglyceride AUC Triglyceride Leptin HOMA Insulin Glucose Abdominal fat Body mass 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Percent change Volek JS, Fernandez ML, Feinman RD, Phinney SD. Dietary carbohydrate restriction induces a unique metabolic state positively
  • 47. “Meta-analysis … on data obtained in 1,141 obese patients, showed the low carbohydrate diet to be associated with significant decreases in body weight, body mass index, abdominal circumference, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, plasma triglycerides, fasting plasma glucose, glycatedhaemoglobin, plasma insulin and plasma C- reactive protein, as well as an increase in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and creatininedid not change significantly,whereas limited data exist concerning plasma uric acid”. Santos FL et al.
  • 48. THE DIETARY CARBOHYDRATE HYPOTHESIS FOR HEART DISEASE Hyperglycaemic HyperinsulinaemicAtherogenic Dyslipidaemia (HHAD) Low  Glucose Omega  Insulin 3, high Omega 6 High  Triglycerides carbohydrate  HDL-C • Arterial inflammation * (fructose) diet  Small LDL-C • Metabolic syndrome particles • Coronary heart disease/stroke  Uric acid* • Obesity  CRP • Diabetes Fatty liver • Hypertension ONE CAUSE, ONE TREATMENT FOR ALL CONDITIONS
  • 49. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of the A high fat diet CONCLUSION: considerations the widespread genetic reverses drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohyd coronary risk dietary guidelines diabetes and rate- factors in persons without proper obesity increased resistance, explains with carbohydrate- scientific explosively. why large numbers resistance evaluation or of persons in whereas a high proof. predisposed carbohydrate diet populations become worsens those obese and diabetic factors. when exposed to a high carbohydrate diet.
  • 50. The 48 836-person Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet Woman’s Health considerations the widespread the genetic reverses Initiative of which drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown my opponent was of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk the Project dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons Director proves without proper obesity increased resistance, explain with carbohydrate- that the 1977 US scientific explosively. s why large resistance Dietary Guidelines evaluation or numbers of whereas a high accelerate disease proof. persons in carbohydrate diet progression in predisposed worsens those persons with populations factors. either known heart become obese and disease or diabetic when diabetes. Thus his exposed to a high landmark study carbohydrate diet. provides the definitive evidence disproving Keys’ false diet-heart hypothesis.
  • 51. WOMEN’S HEALTH DIETARY MODIFICATION TRIAL 48 836 post-menopausal women 40% assigned to low fat 60% to self-selected eating pattern dietary behaviour Subjects reduced energy from Control subjects received a copy fat to 20% and from saturated fat of Dietary Guidelines for to 7% and increased fruit and Americans “as well as other vegetable intake to at least five health-related material but had servings per day and grains to at no contact with nutritional least six servings per day. interventionists”. Subjects were followed for 8.1 years. Howard BV, Van HL, Hsia J, et al. Low-fat dietary pattern and risk of cardiovascular disease: the Women's
  • 52. Conclusion: The study “did not significantly reduce the risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, or cardiovascular disease in postmenopausal women and achieved only modest effects on cardiovascular risk factors”. But was that all they found?
  • 53.
  • 54. “...THE HR FOR THE 3.4% OF WOMEN WITH CVD AT BASELINE WAS 1.26 (95% CI 1.03-1.54)....” This is entirely predictable as a high carbohydrate diet produces HHAD (hyperglycaemichyperinsulinaemicatherogenicdyslipidaemia) in those who are metabolically vulnerable.
  • 55.
  • 56. “The results of this study do not change established recommendations on disease prevention. Women should continue to … work with their doctors to reduce their risks for heart disease including following a diet low in saturated fat, trans fat and cholesterol”. E Nabel, Director, NHLBI.
  • 57.
  • 58. “This study shows that just reducing total fat intake does not go far enough to have an impact on heart disease risk. While the participants’ overall change in LDL “bad” cholesterol was small, we saw trends towards greater reductions in cholesterol and heart disease risk in women eating less saturated and trans fat”. J Rossouw, Project Director, WHIRCDMT
  • 59. THE UPTON SINCLAIR THEOREM “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it”.
  • 60.
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 63. Shikany JM, Margolis KL, Pettinger M, et al. Effects of a low-fat dietary intervention on glucose, insulin, and insulin resistance
  • 64. “….women with diabetes at baseline did experience adverse glycemic effects of the low- fat diet, which indicated that unless accompanied by additional recommendations to guide carbohydrate intake”. Shikany JM et al.
  • 65.
  • 66. The Look AHEAD Trial was terminated prematurely in October 2012 after 11.5 years as it was found that even when combined with exercise, the Prudent diet had no measureble effect on development of arterial disease and its complications in persons with Type 2 Diabetes. Continuing the trial was considered “pointless”.
  • 67. CONCLUSION: Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet The 48 836-person considerations the widespread the genetic reverses Woman’s Health drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown Initiative proves of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk that the 1977 US The WHI provides the definitive dietary guidelines without proper diabetes and obesity increased drate- resistance, explain factors in persons with carbohydrate- Dietary Guidelines accelerate disease evidence from a randomized scientific evaluation or explosively. s why large numbers of resistance whereas a high progression in persons with proof.controlled clinical trial that persons in predisposed carbohydrate diet worsens those either known heart disease or disproves the diet-heart hypothesis. populations become obese and factors. diabetes. Thus the research of my Following the 1977 US “Prudent” Diet diabetic when exposed to a high opponent provides the definitive Guidelines worsens the outcome of carbohydrate diet. evidence that disproves Keys’ those who are the most vulnerable false diet-heart hypothesis. because they have either heart disease or diabetes.
  • 68. Economic Within 5 years of The presence of A high fat diet The 48 836-person considerations the widespread the genetic reverses Woman’s Health drove the adoption adoption of these predisposing allknown Initiative of which of the current guidelines rates of condition, carbohy coronary risk my opponent was CONCLUSION: dietary guidelines diabetes and drate- factors in persons the Project Leader without proper obesity increased resistance, explain with carbohydrate- proves that the scientific explosively. s why large resistance 1977 US Dietary evaluation or numbers of Guidelines proof. The Diet Heart Hypothesis of Ancel Keys is WRONG. persons in whereas a high carbohydrate diet accelerate disease predisposed worsens those progression in Its widespread promotion in the name of good science populations factors. persons with represents the single greatest error in medicine in the become obese and diabetic when either known heart disease or past 60 years. exposed to a high carbohydrate diet. diabetes. Thus that landmark study provides the definitive evidence disproving Keys’ false diet-heart hypothesis.

Editor's Notes

  1. In the interests of trying to keep to my time allocation I will be reading from a prepared text which is not my preferred method of lecturing but I have a very short time to convince you that everything you believe on this topic is wrong. Given enough time that would be an easy task. But to get through enough evidence to make you even consider it – I have to stick to my text. Even then I am going to go too fast and I apologise for that. However the slides are available on this website.So to begin: For 59 years we have been brainwashed by governments, industry, some NGO’s and the “experts” to believe that a diet that is killing us is actually good for us. And the evidence that this diet is killing us is all around us but for some reason we apparently can’t see it. Many of our parents have died from chronic diseases that our medicines have been powerless to prevent; our children’s generation is the most obese in the history of mankind. And our own health is not always ideal. I am a perfect example. Despite eating the so-called healthy low fat diet for 33 years I have developed adult-onset diabetes even though I ran more than 70 marathons or ultramarathons in my life and continue to run 30-60 minutes most days. Why is this?
  2. I began to question what I should eat when I was first exposed to these books. Gary Taubes’s book traces the changes in our understanding of nutrition over the past 200 years; Russell Smith describes what he calls the cholesterol conspiracy - the greatest scam in the history of medicine and Ben Goldacre looks at the pharmaceutical companies’ influence on what we teach our students. I decided that what I had written in my book Lore of Running was wrong and 2 years ago I said: Sorry I am wrong. And that then led to this debate.
  3. Tonight I am going to present 5 irrefutable facts that to my knowledge are not taught at any medical schools in the world. The reason they are not taught is because they are inconvenient – they require that we think differently. And that takes effort. Yet if these facts are true then by ignoring them we cannot arrive at a complete truth and help our patients. So my challenge tonight to this faculty is to ask this question: Do we teach all the facts and therefore have a chance at arriving at the truth? Or do we delete that which is inconvenient? In which case what we are teaching is a blind faith, a religious dogma, not a science. The choice Ladies and Gentlemen is simple but the effects will be profound. My story begin 2.5 million years ago….
  4. The acme of human physical perfection was reached in the 1800s by the American Plains Indians who at the time were the tallest in the world – taller even as you can see from this table than even the Australians.
  5. But all that changed when the white man shot out the bison and forced these Plains Indians to eat the White Man’s diet with lots of cereals and grains and sugar and other healthy processed foods. And every year millions of dollars are spent trying to understand what causes obesity.
  6. And this sequence is repeated all around the world. The 7 fattest nations in the world are small Pacific Islands where people where profoundly healthy eating the foods that existed in their environment. Until they adopted the low fat American health diet full of grains, sugar laden boxed cereals, bread and soft drinks like Coca-Cola and fruit juices. In all these countries, as happened with the Plains Indians, obesity follows immediately and diabetes within 10-20 years. Surely It does not require great intellect to work out what is going on? So where does the problem start?
  7. It begins with one man Ancel Keys who was a biochemist with ambition who strayed into epidemiology. In 1953 he collected some data from the World Health Organization and drew this very pretty graph apparently showing a straight line relationshiop between deaths from coronary heart disease in 6 countries and the amount of dietary fat that they ate. What he failed to mention was that an association like this does not prove causation. It was something he never understood at any point in his life. For this this type of study can never PROVE anything. Because it cannot ever exclude that some difference other than the one you measured causes the difference you have found. Do we really believe that the the only important difference between the Japanese and the Americans is that the Americans eat more fat in the diet. But Keys managed to convince the world that that was the case.
  8. Problem for Keys was that he was trying to fix a problem that did not need fixing. The rise in heart disease mortality had already reached its peak in 1953 when Keys began his crusade. He should have been around in 1920 to make a difference. In fact the dramatic rise in heart disease rates can be explained quite simply by the rise in cigarette smoking which begin to increase in 1905 nicely 15 years before the rise in heart disease as would be expected as cigarettes take time to cause health damage.
  9. Two American epidemiologists showed that Keys had reported only 6 countries not the 22 for which the data were available. They added in the 16 missing points and the graph no longer looked quite so spectacular. However they then looked at all possible factors that might explain this association and concluded - But their effort was wasted as no one took any notice and this classic paper is never read by modern scientists. Instead Key’s acquired political support and his idea became the accepted “truth”. The theory was helped by the next man in our story – President Richard Nixon
  10. who appointed Earl Butz as Secretary of Agriculture in 1971 with the twin goals of making the farmers wealthy and bringing down the price of food. Butz decided that the solution was to industrialize the production of corn with the use of massive subsidies to farmers. This drove down the price of corn and irreversibly changed what we have eaten since 1972.
  11. But there had to be a market into which the corn could be sold. This was conveniently provided by a Senate Select Committee which under the chairmanship of Senator George McGovern in 1977 produced the first dietary guidelines which fundamentally changed our attitude to what we should eat. Until 1960 everyone knew that carbohydrates are fattening and that is what would then have been taught at this Medical School. But these guidelines written by a vegan with no training in the nutritional science now made carbohydrates the health food and demonized fat producing what we call dietary lipophobia – the fear of fat.
  12. But not everyone agreed. Philip Handler President of the US National Academy of Science asked:
  13. He added that it could not be a scientific question since there were no data. Rather the decision was made on ethical, moral and political grounds.
  14. Dr Ahrens, a highly regarded scientist, who spent his life studying cholesterol metabolism was of the same opinion:
  15. But three decades later we know that Handler and Ehrens were correct: This meta-analysis of published studies involving 347 747 subjects studied for between 5 and 23 years concluded that there is (read):
  16. And the highest independent authority in science the Cochrane Collaboration has also concluded in 2011 that there is no evidence that reducing the fat in our diet will reduce our risk of dying from heart disease. So the Keys diet-heart theory is wrong– just as the real scientists of the 1950s and 60s warned. The challenge for this medical school is that we either embrace this or we ignore it and continue to teach blind faith. The choice is ours and I am only the messenger!
  17. Now we could also have saved ourselves 50 wasted years by simply checking what happened to animal fat consumption in the US as the incidence of heart disease was rising. It was completely stable but has fallen dramatically since 1950 as a direct result of lipohobia.
  18. So the first irrefutable truth is that: .
  19. The second irrefutable truth is that:..
  20. Clearly obesity rates at all ages start to rise immediately after the introduction of the 1977 guidelines.
  21. The change in the size of these circles gives an idea of how rapidly this change has occurred in diabetes (point), in childhood obesity and in adult obesity. The growth Is frightening.
  22. This slide shows the changes in energy and macronutrient consumption that has happened in these 30 years. ( Point to intake, carbohydrates, fat and saturated fat in men and women over time).
  23. So the conclusion of the second irrefutable fact is that:
  24. The third irrefutable fact is that we are not all the same – in particular we are not all equally able to metabolize carbohydrate. Instead some are like me and we are carbohydrate-resistant so that (read the slide)
  25. Why is that some become as large as these gentlemen? The answer is that the homeostat that regulates our weight has been busted in all who are overweight even those who are much less obese than the American policeman. We are told for example that one cause of obesity is simply because we exercise too little. Well (read overlay)
  26. The answer of why the homestat gets broken is best shown by this study from the US. The authors began by screening 400 healthy lean sedentary subjects with a glucose tolerance test and then selected those 12 who had the best carbohydrate metabolism and the 12 with the worst whom they called insulin resistant which is the same as carbohydrate resistant. They then studied the metabolic response of both groups when they ate 2 high carbohydrate meals (55% carbohydrate) plus a large sugar load. This is what was found:
  27. We have known since the 1960s that high carbohydrate diets cause the following changes in person with carbohydrate resistance. In the interests of time I am not going to read all of them. The point is that there is a unifying explanation for why these changes occur – they occur in genetically-predisposed individuals exposed to a high carbohydrate diet. All are features of the condition doctors recognize as the metabolic syndrome. The question is how important are all these changes?
  28. Now there are a number of chemicals in our blood that tell us something about our health status – again I do not have the time to discuss them all. But the point is that because of our blind faith in Keys’ diet-heart hypothesis, we generally only measure the following blood variables to predict our health and risk: Total cholesterol; HDL-cholesterol; LDL-cholesterol and triglycerides.We do this according to this model of heart disease:
  29. That a high fat diet causesatherogenicdyslipidaemia by raising blood cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations and lowering the good HDL cholesterol which then leads magically to arterial clogging. According to this disease a high fat diet causes heart disease but obesity, diabetes, hypertension, gout and the metabolic syndrome are different diseases requiring different treatments. But this model is false because as I will show a high fat diet does not always raise the LDL cholesterol but it always causes triglycerides to go up and HDL cholesterol to go down. In fact it is a high carbohydrate diet which causes the triglycerides to go up and the HDL cholesterol to go down.
  30. The next question we need to answer is which of these blood factors is the more important in predicting our future health. To answer this here is the most recent study I could find. In a study of 165 000 subjects of whom 15 000 developed heart attacks and 5000 had strokes it was found that these were the risk factors in order of predictive ability. It shows that the traditional measures of atherogenicdyslipidemia are the least good predictors and are in fact pretty useless. Which is very surprising if cholesterol is meant to be the unique cause of heart disease. The best predictor by far is the disease I have, diabetes. What is it about diabetes that raises the risk of heart disease?
  31. Answer comes from European Prospective Investigation in Cancer in 10 000 residents of Norfolk. It was found that the blood glycosylatedhaemoglobin concentration (HBA1c) was the best predictor of risk of heart disease. The HBA1c is a measure of the average blood glucose concentration over the previous 3 months. These data show that at any increasing level of HbA1c there was an increasing risk of heart disease and that at the end of the range the risk is increased more than 7 fold. This compares with an increase of only 1.2-fold for an elevated blood cholesterol concentration (press for arrow). This shows that HBA1c is a far superior predictor of risk than is a raised blood cholesterol concentration.
  32. Now HBA!C does not cause heart disease – it just tells us something about the historical blood glucose concentration. This study of 81 000 people in Denmark measured their random blood glucose concentrations many years earlier and then followed them for many years until a sufficient number had developed heart disease. What they found was that for those with a blood glucose of 11 which is found only in diabetes, the cumulative incidence of ischemic heart disease events rose very steeply whereas ….. The consequence was…. These data show that if you want to stay healthy for a long time, you need to keep your blood glucose concentration as close to 5 as possible. And this was confirmed in another recent study
  33. reported in the American Heart Journal In which cardiovascular outcome was measured in persons with what we call normal blood glucose concentrations. It was found that even within this range, heart attack risk rose to above that predicted by the total cholesterol concentration (arrow). So this seems to suggest that if you want to really know your heart attack risk you need to measure your blood glucose level regularly as do I with a simple and very cheap piece of equipment.
  34. So my conclusion is that …..
  35. The fourth irrefutable truth is that
  36. I knew nothing of this until I came across the work of Dr Jeff Volek who for the past 30 years has been the world’s leading researcher of the biological effects of low carbohydrate diets. His work is extensive and published in some of the best journals of the world but he has also collated the work in these books.
  37. A recent publication of his reviewed the findings in a study of subjects who ate either the heart healthy high carbohydrate diet or the heart unhealthy high fat diet. Both were calorie restricted. They found the following:Of course this is one study: But fortunately a recent meta-analysis of all these studies shows that Volek is right since a …
  38. So we come to the dietary carbohydrate hypothesis for heart disease which is that a …Note in this model there is a single cause.Interestingly this is so easy to test. Either the hypothesis is right or it is wrong. Would be very easy to prove me wrong. But who in the medical school is performing this trial and if no one is, why not? The only reason people don’t test theories is because they are scared of what they might find.
  39. So the 4th irrefutable truth is that a …………….
  40. The fifth irrefutable truth is that
  41. Here is the front page of the first publication dealing with the dietary findings of the Womans Health Inititative showing that Professor Rossouw is indeed an author of the paper. The study design was the following: …This was the conclusion. Of course this is predictable since we know that a low fat diet makes coronary risk factors worse compared to a high fat diet. But was that all that was found?
  42. So in a press release at the time Dr E Nable Director of the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute said this:…. She failed to mention that the diet low in fat had increased the risk that the health of women with heart disease would worsen if they ate the low fat diet.
  43. Professor Rossouw had his own spin on the study for he said But reducing fat intake in women with heart disease made their outcome worse! So how possibly could reducing it further do anything else than make their condition even worse.
  44. And then the final WHI Study relates to diabetes and again the finding is clear: Women with diabetes do worse if they eat the low fat diet. This is entirely predictable because a high carbohydrate diet worsens the metabolic profile in person with carbohydrate resistance as I showed earlier. So they found that (read text)Of course the authors of the WHI did not have the courage to say – actually women with diabetes should have been told to increase their fat intakes!
  45. Thus the final irrefutable truth is that:
  46. So my final conclusion based on the 5 irrefutable truths that I have presented is that: Thank you for your patience and attention.