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PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
METHODOLOGY
Visit our website: adobe.ly/AdobeInsights
Sign up for email alerts: http://www.cmo.com/adiregister.html
Follow us: @adobeinsights
Most comprehensive report of its kind in industry
Based on analysis of aggregate and anonymous data via:
• Daily revenue model based on analysis of more than 1 trillion visits to the U.S. based on retail websites
• Product and pricing insights based on analysis of sales of more than 55 million unique products
• Adobe Analytics measures transactions at 80 of the top 100** retailers on the web in the U.S.
Adobe Advertising Cloud
** Source: Adobe Analysis of Internet Retailer 2018
Adobe Experience Cloud Adobe Analytics Cloud
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
KEY FINDINGS
State of E-commerce
• E-Commerce Growth Continues Strong in H1 2019 with +12.8%YoY
• Mobile is Not JustThe FutureOf E-Commerce, It’s the Present
• Dollars Spent on SmartphonesWill Surpass Desktop In 2022
Prime Day
• The Retail Giants Will See their Best Prime DayYetThisYear
• Retail Giants Are Learning HowTo Convert Prime DayTraffic
• Every RetailerThat’s Growing Will Experience the Halo Effect
• Physical Locations Give an EdgeOn Prime Day
• EmailWill Be the Key to a Successful Prime Day
• Heightened EngagementWithVideoAds
• The Demographics Of Prime Day Skew Middle Class And Urban
• Electronics, And Smart Devices In Particular, Will SeeThe Best Prime Day Discounts
• Deeper Discounts Don’tAlways Mean More Sales
• Return Rates Increase for Purchases Made on Prime Day
STATE OF RETAIL
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
E-COMMERCE GROWTH CONTINUES STRONG IN H1 2019 W/ +12.8%
YoY• Q1 saw a slow down in growth compared
to a year ago at 11.6%YoY.
• Consumers picked up their online
spending in Q2 to drive a strong 14%
growth over the same period in 2018.
• Overall, E-commerce growth is not
showing signs of slowing down. H1
combined grew at 12.8%YoY.
• We expect strong double digit growth
going into Q4 and the holiday shopping
season.
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
SMARTPHONES AREN’T JUSTTHE FUTURE OF E-COMMERCE,THEY’RE THE
PRESENT
• Smartphone is here and now.The
vast majority of visits to retail
websites come from mobile
devices.
• Consumers are shopping and
researching on the go, whenever
and wherever they’d like.
• Capturing, directing and
converting mobile traffic is
imperative for a growing retailer.
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
DOLLARS SPENT ON SMARTPHONES WILL SURPASS DESKTOP IN
2022
• While smartphones are the devices
of e-commerce research, the last
step is still mostly completed on
desktops.
• About $1 in $3 is spent online
through smartphones.
• We project the smartphones to
become the primary device for
checking out by May 2022, and will
account for more than 50% of
revenue by the end of that year.
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
RETAIL GIANTS WILL SEETHEIR BEST PRIME DAYYET
• Online retailers are seeing an
increasingly strong “halo effect” on
Prime Day.
• The big e-commerce competitors are
becoming better and better at
reaping the benefits of this artificial
holiday, indicating Prime Day isn’t
just an Amazon holiday anymore.
• We predict the revenue lift for this
year to be stronger than ever at 79%.
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
RETAIL GIANTS ARE LEARNING HOWTO CONVERT PRIME DAY
TRAFFIC
• The big retailers’ edge lies in their ability to better
convert the traffic they get on Prime Day:
conversion accounts for 70% of the Prime Day lift
for the big retailers.
• An influx in visits is also contributing factor on Prime
Day, although a much smaller one.
• Over the past 3 years the big retailers have
improved significantly how they convert the traffic
on Prime Day.
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
RETAILERS THAT ARE GROWING WILL EXPERIENCE A HALO EFFECT
• Retailers in the average and above average growth buckets saw a revenue lift greater than 15% on Prime Day.
• Retailers who are growing below the industry benchmark saw almost no lift on Prime Day.
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
PHYSICAL LOCATIONS GIVE AN EDGE ON PRIME DAY
• Consumers usually use Buy-
Online-Pick-Up-In-Store
(BOPIS) for less expensive
items that result in a smaller
AverageOrderValue.
• Prime Day brings BOPIS order
values up closer to the online
average.
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
EMAILWILL BETHE KEYTO A SUCCESSFUL PRIME DAY
• Retailers who showed the highest share of their
revenue coming from their email campaigns saw a
significant Halo effect last year.
• Retailers with a poorly developed or completely
undeveloped email channel saw zero lift on Prime
Day.
• Overall, the email channel saw an 8.8% increase in
order share on Prime Day.
8.8
%
INCREASE IN SHARE OF
ORDERS ON PRIME DAY
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
HEIGHTENED ENGAGEMENT WITHVIDEO ADS
• While video advertising CPMs
stay relatively flat for Prime
Day, engagement is
heightened, with click-through-
rates up 55% and viewable
completion rates up 20%
• This engagement lift is
primarily driven through
desktop, indicating advertisers
should focus their energy here
rather than mobile
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
THE DEMOGRAPHICS OFTHE
“PRIME DAY HALO EFFECT”
SKEW MIDDLE CLASS AND
URBAN
• Some of the major cities with the biggest Prime Day
lift:
• Baton Rouge, LA
• Mooresville, NC
• Long Beach, CA
Methodology: analysis based on Census county data combined
w/ Adobe Analytics
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
WHERETO FINDTHE BEST PRIME DAY DISCOUNTS
• The best deals on Prime Day can be
found on electronics, apparel, and
home goods
• Discounts on home goods and
electronics are on par with discounts
found on Cyber Monday, while
Prime Day apparel and linen
discounts outpace holiday discounts
• Look for the steepest electronic
discounts on smart items,
specifically watches,TVs, and home
accessories
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
DEEPER DISCOUNTS DON’T ALWAYS MEAN MORE SALES
• Consumers are most discount sensitive toward toys and home/garden goods, but steeper discounts on
appliances, personal care products, and groceries doesn’t necessarily indicate more purchases
• Items in the $50-$100 bucket see the strongest relationship between discount and units purchased
PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019
RETURN RATES INCREASE FOR PURCHASES MADE ON PRIME DAY
• In 2018 there was a 30% increase in returns for items purchased on Prime Day, indicating that consumers are
quick to buy items they don’t ultimately want
Adobe Digital Insights -- Prime Day 2019

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Adobe Digital Insights -- Prime Day 2019

  • 1.
  • 2. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 METHODOLOGY Visit our website: adobe.ly/AdobeInsights Sign up for email alerts: http://www.cmo.com/adiregister.html Follow us: @adobeinsights Most comprehensive report of its kind in industry Based on analysis of aggregate and anonymous data via: • Daily revenue model based on analysis of more than 1 trillion visits to the U.S. based on retail websites • Product and pricing insights based on analysis of sales of more than 55 million unique products • Adobe Analytics measures transactions at 80 of the top 100** retailers on the web in the U.S. Adobe Advertising Cloud ** Source: Adobe Analysis of Internet Retailer 2018 Adobe Experience Cloud Adobe Analytics Cloud
  • 3. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 KEY FINDINGS State of E-commerce • E-Commerce Growth Continues Strong in H1 2019 with +12.8%YoY • Mobile is Not JustThe FutureOf E-Commerce, It’s the Present • Dollars Spent on SmartphonesWill Surpass Desktop In 2022 Prime Day • The Retail Giants Will See their Best Prime DayYetThisYear • Retail Giants Are Learning HowTo Convert Prime DayTraffic • Every RetailerThat’s Growing Will Experience the Halo Effect • Physical Locations Give an EdgeOn Prime Day • EmailWill Be the Key to a Successful Prime Day • Heightened EngagementWithVideoAds • The Demographics Of Prime Day Skew Middle Class And Urban • Electronics, And Smart Devices In Particular, Will SeeThe Best Prime Day Discounts • Deeper Discounts Don’tAlways Mean More Sales • Return Rates Increase for Purchases Made on Prime Day
  • 5. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 E-COMMERCE GROWTH CONTINUES STRONG IN H1 2019 W/ +12.8% YoY• Q1 saw a slow down in growth compared to a year ago at 11.6%YoY. • Consumers picked up their online spending in Q2 to drive a strong 14% growth over the same period in 2018. • Overall, E-commerce growth is not showing signs of slowing down. H1 combined grew at 12.8%YoY. • We expect strong double digit growth going into Q4 and the holiday shopping season.
  • 6. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 SMARTPHONES AREN’T JUSTTHE FUTURE OF E-COMMERCE,THEY’RE THE PRESENT • Smartphone is here and now.The vast majority of visits to retail websites come from mobile devices. • Consumers are shopping and researching on the go, whenever and wherever they’d like. • Capturing, directing and converting mobile traffic is imperative for a growing retailer.
  • 7. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 DOLLARS SPENT ON SMARTPHONES WILL SURPASS DESKTOP IN 2022 • While smartphones are the devices of e-commerce research, the last step is still mostly completed on desktops. • About $1 in $3 is spent online through smartphones. • We project the smartphones to become the primary device for checking out by May 2022, and will account for more than 50% of revenue by the end of that year.
  • 9. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 RETAIL GIANTS WILL SEETHEIR BEST PRIME DAYYET • Online retailers are seeing an increasingly strong “halo effect” on Prime Day. • The big e-commerce competitors are becoming better and better at reaping the benefits of this artificial holiday, indicating Prime Day isn’t just an Amazon holiday anymore. • We predict the revenue lift for this year to be stronger than ever at 79%.
  • 10. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 RETAIL GIANTS ARE LEARNING HOWTO CONVERT PRIME DAY TRAFFIC • The big retailers’ edge lies in their ability to better convert the traffic they get on Prime Day: conversion accounts for 70% of the Prime Day lift for the big retailers. • An influx in visits is also contributing factor on Prime Day, although a much smaller one. • Over the past 3 years the big retailers have improved significantly how they convert the traffic on Prime Day.
  • 11. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 RETAILERS THAT ARE GROWING WILL EXPERIENCE A HALO EFFECT • Retailers in the average and above average growth buckets saw a revenue lift greater than 15% on Prime Day. • Retailers who are growing below the industry benchmark saw almost no lift on Prime Day.
  • 12. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 PHYSICAL LOCATIONS GIVE AN EDGE ON PRIME DAY • Consumers usually use Buy- Online-Pick-Up-In-Store (BOPIS) for less expensive items that result in a smaller AverageOrderValue. • Prime Day brings BOPIS order values up closer to the online average.
  • 13. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 EMAILWILL BETHE KEYTO A SUCCESSFUL PRIME DAY • Retailers who showed the highest share of their revenue coming from their email campaigns saw a significant Halo effect last year. • Retailers with a poorly developed or completely undeveloped email channel saw zero lift on Prime Day. • Overall, the email channel saw an 8.8% increase in order share on Prime Day. 8.8 % INCREASE IN SHARE OF ORDERS ON PRIME DAY
  • 14. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 HEIGHTENED ENGAGEMENT WITHVIDEO ADS • While video advertising CPMs stay relatively flat for Prime Day, engagement is heightened, with click-through- rates up 55% and viewable completion rates up 20% • This engagement lift is primarily driven through desktop, indicating advertisers should focus their energy here rather than mobile
  • 15. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 THE DEMOGRAPHICS OFTHE “PRIME DAY HALO EFFECT” SKEW MIDDLE CLASS AND URBAN • Some of the major cities with the biggest Prime Day lift: • Baton Rouge, LA • Mooresville, NC • Long Beach, CA Methodology: analysis based on Census county data combined w/ Adobe Analytics
  • 16. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 WHERETO FINDTHE BEST PRIME DAY DISCOUNTS • The best deals on Prime Day can be found on electronics, apparel, and home goods • Discounts on home goods and electronics are on par with discounts found on Cyber Monday, while Prime Day apparel and linen discounts outpace holiday discounts • Look for the steepest electronic discounts on smart items, specifically watches,TVs, and home accessories
  • 17. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 DEEPER DISCOUNTS DON’T ALWAYS MEAN MORE SALES • Consumers are most discount sensitive toward toys and home/garden goods, but steeper discounts on appliances, personal care products, and groceries doesn’t necessarily indicate more purchases • Items in the $50-$100 bucket see the strongest relationship between discount and units purchased
  • 18. PRIME DAY PREDICTIONS | 2019 RETURN RATES INCREASE FOR PURCHASES MADE ON PRIME DAY • In 2018 there was a 30% increase in returns for items purchased on Prime Day, indicating that consumers are quick to buy items they don’t ultimately want