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ADOBE DIGITAL ECONOMY PROJECT
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX
Table of contents
2
Overview
03 Economist advisors
04 Adobe Digital Index background
05 Adobe Digital Economy project:
new...
• Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics at The University
of Chicago's Booth School of Business
• Formerly served as Pres...
4
OVERVIEW
Adobe Digital Index background
Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from Adobe Marketing Cloud:
•...
5
OVERVIEW
Adobe Digital Economy project: news overview
Digital Price Index
(DPI)
Job Seeking Index
(JSI)
Digital Housing ...
Digital Price Index
(DPI)
7
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Methodology
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project
** Latest IR Top 500 Report 2015
Bas...
8
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Measuring rapid-shifting consumer preferences
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project
* ...
9
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
The importance of detail: Black Friday
DPI captures the effect of major discount
holidays like Black...
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project 10
• The data used contains transactions for ~110 K products between M...
• Between March 2015 and March 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 4.8%
• For March, prices increased 0.9% vs. Februar...
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project 12
• The data used contains transactions for ~1 M products between Mar...
• Prices for electronics decreased 9.4% between March 2015 and March 2016
• For March, prices decreased 0.8% vs. February
...
• Between March 2015 and March 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 13.6%
• For March, prices decreased 2.3% vs. Februa...
• Between March 2015 and March 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 19.8%
• For March, prices decreased 1.2% vs. Februa...
• This is an important category not specifically covered by the CPI because of their small
product coverage
• Between Marc...
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project 17
• The data used contains transactions for ~173 K products between M...
18
DIGITAL PRICE INDEX
Furniture and bedding essentially unchanged
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project
• B...
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project 19
Groceries
methodology
•  Our dataset covers an estimated 30-40% of ...
•  Between March 2015 and March 2016, DPI shows cumulative inflation of 0.5%
•  For March, prices decreased 0.5% vs. Febru...
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project 21
•  The data used contains transactions for ~249 K products between ...
•  Between March 2015 and March 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 5.3%
•  For March, prices decreased 2.9% vs. Febru...
Job Seeking Index
(JSI)
24
JOB SEEKING INDEX
Methodology
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project
Based on analysis of aggregated and a...
25
JOB SEEKING INDEX
Online job seeking declines
•  U.S. online job seeking is down 15.2% YoY in March
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX...
Digital Housing Index
(DHI)
27
DIGITAL HOUSING INDEX
Methodology
ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project
Based on analysis of aggregated a...
28
DIGITAL HOUSING INDEX
Online housing search growth slows
•  Online search for purchases and rentals up 15.7% YoY in Mar...
ADI Economic Indicator Report
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Last month Adobe announced the Digital Economy Project (DEP), which aims to use the power of big data to provide insights on everything from online inflation to job search. This month the DEP released updated economic data for the month of March and also expanded the Digital Price Index (DPI) to include several new categories, including Appliances, Toys, and Furniture.

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ADI Economic Indicator Report

  1. 1. ADOBE DIGITAL ECONOMY PROJECT ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX
  2. 2. Table of contents 2 Overview 03 Economist advisors 04 Adobe Digital Index background 05 Adobe Digital Economy project: news overview Digital Price Index 07 Methodology 08 Measuring rapid-shifting consumer preferences 09 The importance of detail: Black Friday 10 Appliances methodology 11 Appliances prices not decreasing as fast as electronics 12 Electronics methodology 13 Strong deflation in computers 14 Deflation of electronics continues 15 Continued deflation of televisions 16 Tablet prices declining again 17 Furniture and bedding methodology 18 Furniture and bedding essentially unchanged 19 Groceries methodology 20 Online groceries inflation slows 21 Toys methodology 22 Toys see most deflation since holidays Job Seeking Index 24 Methodology 25 Online job seeking declines Digital Housing Index 27 Methodology 28 Online housing search growth slows ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project
  3. 3. • Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics at The University of Chicago's Booth School of Business • Formerly served as President Obama’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers • The youngest member of the cabinet of President Obama ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project 3 OVERVIEW Economist advisors • Professor, Department of Economics, Stanford University • Formerly Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis • Currently Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco • Member of editorial boards for Econometrica, American Economic Review, Quarterly Review of Economics, Journal of Economic Perspectives and others Austan Goolsbee University of Chicago Pete Klenow Stanford University
  4. 4. 4 OVERVIEW Adobe Digital Index background Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from Adobe Marketing Cloud: •  Adobe Analytics and Adobe Mobile Services! Thousands of brands worldwide including two thirds of Fortune 50 companies rely on Adobe Marketing Cloud: •  $7.50 of every $10 spent online with top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud ** •  Adobe Marketing Cloud powers: •  20 of the top 30 U.S. employers •  9 of 10 largest hotel groups •  7 of 10 largest airlines ** Latest IR Top 500 Report 2015 ! Adobe!! Analy+cs! Adobe!! Mobile!Services! ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project
  5. 5. 5 OVERVIEW Adobe Digital Economy project: news overview Digital Price Index (DPI) Job Seeking Index (JSI) Digital Housing Index (DHI) ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project
  6. 6. Digital Price Index (DPI)
  7. 7. 7 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Methodology ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project ** Latest IR Top 500 Report 2015 Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data. •  Fisher Ideal Price Index •  Adobe measures 80% of all online transactions from top 100 U.S. retailers ** •  $7.50 of every $10 spent online with top 500 U.S. retailers go through Adobe Marketing Cloud ** •  Based on analysis of 4 billion website visits and 1.7 million online products sold between March 2014 and March 2016 CPI: Consumer Price Index Adobe: Digital Price Index Quantities Sold No Yes Products/quantities updated Every 4 years Daily Number of Products 83 thousand (all categories) 1.7 million (electronics, groceries, appliances, furniture/bedding, toys) Data Collection Frequency Bi-Monthly Daily Data Availability Monthly Daily Offline Prices Yes No Long history Yes No All categories of spending Yes No
  8. 8. 8 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Measuring rapid-shifting consumer preferences ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project * Products that have been available for 1 year or less ** A product is defined as an item for purchase which has an unique identifier (such as a SKU) • Electronics see an average of 80% of online spend on new* products** • 16% of monthly online spend for groceries on new products
  9. 9. 9 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX The importance of detail: Black Friday DPI captures the effect of major discount holidays like Black Friday and Cyber Monday because it measures quantities and does so in real-time. •  Lowest prices for TVs in 2015 were Thanksgiving and Black Friday •  Data demonstrates retailers trying to start sales earlier – the Sunday and Monday before Thanksgiving saw low prices ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project
  10. 10. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project 10 • The data used contains transactions for ~110 K products between March 2014 and March 2016 • Products include large appliances such as fridges, ovens, washers, dryers as well as smaller appliances such as vacuums, mixers, blenders etc. Appliances methodology
  11. 11. • Between March 2015 and March 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 4.8% • For March, prices increased 0.9% vs. February - Main inflation items are for refrigerators and dishwashers • Between February 2015 and February 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 5.7% - For the same period, CPI* reported cumulative deflation of 2.7% 11 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Appliances prices not decreasing as fast as electronics ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project * CPI category: Appliances
  12. 12. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project 12 • The data used contains transactions for ~1 M products between March 2014 and March 2016 • Products span across dozens of different categories such as televisions, laptops, Blu-ray players, desktops, tablets, wearables, headphones, video games, printers etc. Electronics methodology
  13. 13. • Prices for electronics decreased 9.4% between March 2015 and March 2016 • For March, prices decreased 0.8% vs. February - Main deflation in March happening in computers and televisions • For February, prices were down 0.6% over January - Main deflation in February for televisions, computers, cameras and smart watches 13 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Deflation of electronics continues ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project
  14. 14. • Between March 2015 and March 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 13.6% • For March, prices decreased 2.3% vs. February - Main deflation items are Apple and Lenovo computers • Between February 2015 and February 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 12.8% - For the same period, CPI* reported cumulative deflation of 7.8% 14 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Strong deflation in computers ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project * CPI category Personal computers and peripheral equipment used for comparison
  15. 15. • Between March 2015 and March 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 19.8% • For March, prices decreased 1.2% vs. February - Main price decreases in March are for Samsung televisions • Between February 2015 and February 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 20.3% vs. 15% reported by the CPI 15 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Continued deflation of televisions ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project
  16. 16. • This is an important category not specifically covered by the CPI because of their small product coverage • Between March 2015 and March 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 18.2% • For March, prices decreased 0.9% vs. February - Main price decreases in March are for Apple tablets 16 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Tablet prices declining again ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project
  17. 17. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project 17 • The data used contains transactions for ~173 K products between March 2014 and March 2016 • Products include interior and exterior furniture, mattresses and other bedding products Furniture and bedding methodology
  18. 18. 18 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Furniture and bedding essentially unchanged ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project • Between March 2015 and March 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 2.2% • For March, prices increased 0.1% vs. February - Main beds and mattresses • Between February 2015 and February 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 2.5% - For the same period, CPI* reported cumulative deflation of 0.5% • CPI category: Furniture and bedding
  19. 19. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project 19 Groceries methodology •  Our dataset covers an estimated 30-40% of all online grocery purchases. It contains transactions for ~195k products (2015-2016) and is heavily comprised of groceries bought online and picked-up in store •  The percent of shoppers buying groceries online is small, but growing by 35% YoY as of February •  Generally, those buying groceries online come from affluent backgrounds •  The mix of grocery products bought online is not the same as offline – the top category for online shopping is drinks (nonalcoholic), while for offline shopping it is meat •  Still, a significant portion of online grocery shopping is dedicated to meats, dairy, fruits and vegetables – more than 50% •  When it comes to products where there’s little substitution possible and consumer choice is minimal (like milk and eggs), the DPI tracks almost perfectly with the CPI. This is a good indication that prices online match offline prices well
  20. 20. •  Between March 2015 and March 2016, DPI shows cumulative inflation of 0.5% •  For March, prices decreased 0.5% vs. February -  Main deflation in Mar for fruits and vegetables, non-alcoholic beverages and eggs •  Between February 2015 and February 2016, DPI shows cumulative inflation of 0.8% -  For the same period, CPI* reported cumulative deflation of 0.3% 20 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Online groceries inflation slows ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project * CPI category “food at home” used for comparison
  21. 21. ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project 21 •  The data used contains transactions for ~249 K products between March 2014 and March 2016 •  Products include toys, games as well as playground equipment Toys methodology
  22. 22. •  Between March 2015 and March 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 5.3% •  For March, prices decreased 2.9% vs. February -  Main deflation items are Lego sets, Power Wheels and Barbie products •  Between February 2015 and February 2016, DPI shows cumulative deflation of 4.6% -  For the same period, CPI* reported cumulative deflation of 7.1% 22 DIGITAL PRICE INDEX Toys see most deflation since holidays ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project * CPI category: Toys
  23. 23. Job Seeking Index (JSI)
  24. 24. 24 JOB SEEKING INDEX Methodology ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from more than 1 billion visits to U.S. employment-search websites and top employer career pages from March 2015 through March 2016. •  Adobe Marketing Cloud powers 20 of the top 30 U.S. employers** ** Wikipedia
  25. 25. 25 JOB SEEKING INDEX Online job seeking declines •  U.S. online job seeking is down 15.2% YoY in March ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project
  26. 26. Digital Housing Index (DHI)
  27. 27. 27 DIGITAL HOUSING INDEX Methodology ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data from more than 2 billion visits to U.S. housing search websites between March 2015 and March 2015.
  28. 28. 28 DIGITAL HOUSING INDEX Online housing search growth slows •  Online search for purchases and rentals up 15.7% YoY in March •  NAR reports existing home sales increased 2.2% YoY in February ADOBE DIGITAL INDEX | Adobe Digital Economy Project

Last month Adobe announced the Digital Economy Project (DEP), which aims to use the power of big data to provide insights on everything from online inflation to job search. This month the DEP released updated economic data for the month of March and also expanded the Digital Price Index (DPI) to include several new categories, including Appliances, Toys, and Furniture.

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