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2016 Holiday Shopping Predictions: Europe And Asia-Pacific

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New analysis by Adobe Digital Insights finds that holiday spending will increase $15.8B year-over-year in 13 countries tracked. The main finding is that going online to shop is still about deals, but convenience factors are on the rise.

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2016 Holiday Shopping Predictions: Europe And Asia-Pacific

  1. 1. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. 2016 Holiday Shopping Predictions: Europe and Asia-Pacific Adobe Digital Insights
  2. 2. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Methodology 2 Most comprehensive and accurate report of its kind in industry  Report based on analysis of 100 billion visits to over 700 companies across Europe and Asia -Pacific from January 2013 to present  Companion research based on survey conducted in October 2016 with 4,000+ consumers in the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany and 800+ consumers in Australia and Singapore  Holiday Season estimates include data between November 1 and December 31 in each country; currency is converted and represented in USD Based on analysis of aggregated and anonymous data Data from different Adobe Marketing Cloud solutions: Adobe Analytics Adobe Mobile Services Adobe Social Adobe Marketing Cloud has seen strong adoption in the retail space – Adobe’s leadership in the Web analytics market has given it a big advantage here. Retailers need “big data” insights to optimize their cross-channel digital experiences and campaigns – and deliver the personalized, relevant experiences that inspire customer loyalty and advocacy. – Melissa Webster, IDCAdobe and the Adobe logo are either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe Systems Incorporated in the United States and/or other countries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners
  3. 3. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Consumers Will Increase Spend By 10% This Holiday Season Holiday spending will increase $15.8B year-over- year in the 13 countries tracked Going online to shop is still about deals, but convenience factors are on the rise (ADI Holiday Survey 2016)  Lower prices and good deals still tops the reason to shop online across all countries  However, convenience factors grew across the board, with the UK, France, and Singapore showing particular interest in the ability to avoid lines 3
  4. 4. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Companies See Visitors Mostly from Their Own Country 9 out of 10 visitors come from within the country  While some countries see sizable traffic from other countries, particularly the UK, most traffic is from residents Consumers indicate that price, familiarity with brand, and product reviews are the top influencers of a major purchase (ADI Holiday Survey 2016)  Price is the #1 influencer for a major purchase in all countries surveyed  Familiarity with brand ranks #2 4
  5. 5. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Consumers Either Choose Promotions, Or Wait Until The Last Minute 5  Promotions entice consumers to purchase around major sales events, such as Black Friday  Examples: United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden  Other countries skew towards last minute shopping, and major sales events drive little-to-no increases  Examples: Germany, Belgium, Austria Racetothe finish Begin shoppingearly
  6. 6. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Black Friday is Larger than Cyber Monday Across Europe 6 Over the past four years, Black Friday sales have grown more than twice as fast as Cyber Monday (+126%).  Nordic countries see Black Friday growth at 187% over four years compared to 66% for other European countries  Cyber Monday’s growth figures are 85% in Nordic countries, compared to 29% elsewhere
  7. 7. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Black Friday Changes Holiday Season Spending 7 2013: Holiday sales ramped up until mid- December,. The biggest day was Cyber Monday, and Boxing Day had a noticeable spike. 2015: Black Friday took off, with 20% higher sales than Cyber Monday. Daily sales evened out, and weekend dips disappeared.
  8. 8. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Holiday Sales Events Take Revenue From Other Days 8 The combined sales of Black Friday and Cyber Monday are growing faster than annual rates in the UK and Nordic countries (50% and 150%, respectively)  Despite growth on key dates, the holiday season isn’t getting any bigger. The share of annual sales in season in the UK is down -0.3%; in Nordic countries it is down -1.2%.  Sales now concentrate on key promotion dates: Roughly 10% of Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales come from other days in the holiday season
  9. 9. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. European Shoppers Spend 61% More Per Day During The Season 9 Monday is the most popular day to shop online in Europe in the regular season, but weekend shopping increases during the holiday  Holiday season (Nov. and Dec) sees 7% more revenue on weekends than during the rest of the year  Online shopping decreases 20% from Sunday to Saturday.
  10. 10. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Worldwide, Black Friday Grows Faster Than Cyber Monday 10 Black Friday continues to be adopted worldwide, with revenue growing 40% faster than Cyber Monday  Black Friday has become the biggest day in many countries, including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom
  11. 11. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. $1 in $4 Will Come From A Mobile Device During Holiday Smartphone revenue will nearly double (+96%) and browsing is is expected to be up 60% over last year  Tablet traffic is down 2%, while revenue is up by 13%  Smartphone holds a 2:1 advantage in share of revenue and more than a 3:1 advantage in share of browsing Use of smartphone and tablets vary by country  Mobile activity ranges by 50% across countries, reflecting a different mix in technology adoption  UK and Japan have the highest mobile usage during the holiday season  Belgium, France and Germany continue to be more desktop oriented  Europe continues to be the strongest region for tablets: British spend almost as much on tablets as phones (17% to 20%) 11
  12. 12. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Smartphone Revenue Will Surpass Tablets For First Time Smartphone revenue will surpass tablet revenue in Europe for the first time in 2016  133% growth over three years vs. tablet’s stagnant performance However, smartphone shopping still difficult  On average, only 23% of UK, France and Germany consumers say smartphone shopping has gotten easier since 2015  Australia (22%) Singapore (30%) see similar trends 12
  13. 13. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Despite smartphones having lower revenue contribution, consumers still check sales and buy with their smartphones  In every country, smartphones account for more revenue on Christmas Day than on Cyber Monday or Black Friday Christmas Continues To Be The Most Mobile Day Of The Season 13 Smartphones account for 58% more revenue on Christmas than on Cyber Monday and 34% more on Black Friday.
  14. 14. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Best Online Source for Shopping Deals and Bargains 14 US UK France Germany Australia Singapore Email directly from a retailer 22% 23% 21% 14% 26% 18% Ad seen from searching on a specific product/service 21% 27% 19% 22% 26% 16% In-person conversation with friends/family 14% 14% 21% 24% 15% 14% Display ad seen while browsing 13% 11% 16% 9% 10% 18% Online or traditional news media 12% 10% 8% 15% 10% 14% Social media 11% 7% 6% 7% 7% 11% Push notification from an app 5% 4% 4% 3% 4% 8% Email is consistently ranked high for receiving shopping deals and bargains, but not first in every country  The US, France, Australia, Singapore rank email #1 for receiving deals; the UK ranks email #2  Another method consistently ranked high includes ads seen from searching for a specific product or service Source: ADI Holiday Survey 2016
  15. 15. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Online Shopping Stats by Country Adobe Digital Insights
  16. 16. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. United Kingdom: Black Friday Drives the Season Biggest day of the year for online shopping will again be Black Friday Holiday Season Estimate: up $3 billion over last year  $29.6 billion, 10% YoY growth  Smartphone: 20% of revenue, 41% of browsing  Tablet: 17% of revenue, 16% of browsing Biggest day: Black Friday $1.1 billion  3.2x a typical day  $18.39 per Internet user 16
  17. 17. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Japan: Steady Growth Through The Season Until Year End No significant day expected Holiday Season Estimate: up nearly $3 billion  $35.7 billion, 8% YoY growth  Smartphone: 35% of revenue, 49% of browsing  Tablet: 6% of revenue, 6% of browsing Biggest day: December 11th - $696 million  1.3x a typical day  $6.05 per Internet user 17
  18. 18. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Germany: Black Friday Starts The Shopping Season, It Peaks in Mid-December No single day, but rather a steady increase in sales Holiday Season Estimate: up over $2 billion this year  $25.0 billion, 10% YoY growth  Smartphone: 14% of revenue, 33% of browsing  Tablet: 10% of revenue, 12% of browsing Biggest day: November 27th - $604 million  1.9x a typical day  $8.45 per Internet user 18
  19. 19. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. France: A New Shopping Period Is Emerging Black Friday weekend competes with the Winter Sale (Les Soldes)  Last year, the Sunday after Black Friday was 6% higher than the first day of the winter sale period (Jan 6, 2016)  Expect the Black Friday weekend to be higher again in 2016 Holiday Season Estimate  $15.6 billion, 11% YoY growth  Smartphone: 11% of revenue, 27% of browsing  Tablet: 10% of revenue, 11% of browsing Biggest day: Black Friday - $420 million  2.1x a typical day  $8.45 per Internet user 19
  20. 20. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Netherlands: Season Builds and Sees Shopping on Mondays in December No day is expected to be twice the norm, one of the lowest lifts among countries tracked Holiday Season Estimate  $5.6 billion, 13% YoY growth  Smartphone: 16% of revenue, 35% of browsing  Tablet: 10% of revenue, 13% of browsing Biggest day: December 12th - $128 million  1.7x a typical day  $8.06 per Internet user 20
  21. 21. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Sweden: Combines The Two European Trends – Binge and Wait Sweden sees shopping early and late in the season Holiday Season Estimate  $4.3 billion, 12% YoY growth  Smartphone: 21% of revenue, 37% of browsing  Tablet: 9% of revenue, 11% of browsing Biggest day: Black Friday- $149 million  2.9x a typical day  $16.35 per Internet user 21
  22. 22. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Austria: Shopping Doesn’t Start In Earnest Until December Cyber Monday is the official beginning of the season, which ends two weeks later Holiday Season Estimate  $2.3 billion, 7% YoY growth  Smartphone: 7% of revenue, 19% of browsing  Tablet: 7% of revenue, 9% of browsing Biggest day: December 12th - $60 million  2.4x a typical day  $8.38 per Internet user 22
  23. 23. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Belgium: Holidays Marked By Late Season Shopping Interest spikes on Black Friday and sales continue to grow through December Holiday Season Estimate  $3.2 billion, 12% YoY growth  Smartphone: 6% of revenue, 17% of browsing  Tablet: 6% of revenue, 10% of browsing Biggest day: December 12th - $81 million  2.0x a typical day  $8.18 per Internet user 23
  24. 24. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Denmark: Jumps On The Black Friday Bandwagon Black Friday will be most significant day Holiday Season Estimate  $1.7 billion, 14% YoY growth  Smartphone: 13% of revenue, 25% of browsing  Tablet: 13% of revenue, 15% of browsing Biggest day: Black Friday- $66 million  2.9x a typical day  $12.10 per Internet user 24
  25. 25. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Finland: Black Friday Kicks Off The Holiday Season Holiday Season Estimate  $1.9 billion, 9% YoY growth  Smartphone: 13% of revenue, 25% of browsing  Tablet: 13% of revenue, 15% of browsing Biggest day: Black Friday - $71 million  3.2x a typical day  $13.84 per Internet user 25
  26. 26. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Norway: Sales Rise Slowly After the Black Friday Spike Norwegians shop on Black Friday and take Christmas off Holiday Season Estimate  $1.2 billion, 15% YoY growth  Smartphone: 20% of revenue, 32% of browsing  Tablet: 12% of revenue, 11% of browsing Biggest day: Black Friday - $35 million  2.4 a typical day  $7.10 per Internet user 26
  27. 27. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Canada: Black Friday Kicks The Season Off, Cyber Monday Leads Black Friday kicks things off, immediately followed by Cyber Monday Holiday Season Estimate  $5.6 billion, 12% YoY growth  Smartphone: 18% of revenue, 38% of browsing  Tablet: 10% of revenue, 11% of browsing Biggest day: Cyber Monday - $203 million  3.0x a typical day  $6.34 per Internet user, lowest among all countries 27
  28. 28. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Appendix Adobe Digital Insights
  29. 29. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Data Table For ADI Holiday Survey 2016: Why Shop Online? 29 UK France Germany Australia Singapore Lower prices/good deals 64% 60% 50% 65% 69% Free Shipping 40% 33% 30% 49% 48% Product Variety 30% 33% 39% 25% 31% Product Availability 38% 34% 34% 31% 24% No traffic/lines 18% 31% 35% 19% 17% Can shop from work 8% 7% 12% 11% 9% Source: ADI Holiday Survey 2016
  30. 30. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Data Table For ADI Holiday Survey 2016: Influencers Of A Major Purchase 30 UK France Germany Australia Singapore 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 Price 78% 67% 82% 72% 81% 65% 78% 70% 79% 65% Familiarity with brand 49% 46% 46% 57% 37% 54% 60% 52% 53% 51% Product reviews 45% 50% 48% 43% 64% 49% 36% 41% 44% 53% Familiarity with retailer 27% 29% 24% 24% 14% 26% 23% 26% 21% 21% Social media 1% 8% 2% 5% 3% 6% 2% 11% 3% 11% Source: ADI Holiday Survey 2016
  31. 31. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential. Data Table: Reasons Why Online Shopping Has Gotten Easier 31 Source: ADI Holiday Survey 2016 US UK France Germany Australia Singapore Retailers doing better at mobile optimization for shopping 54% 62% 57% 56% 65% 60% Begun using apps for shopping, find them easier than browsing 41% 42% 33% 45% 48% 39% Upgraded to a larger screen smartphone, things easier to see 36% 31% 44% 38% 32% 43% Become more comfortable with smartphone security/privacy 32% 38% 34% 19% 41% 42% Better mobile payment options 32% 39% 26% 39% 48% 45%
  32. 32. © 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.

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