Understanding Attribution: IAB Customer Conversion Journey Seminar

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  • Where does attribution fit in? For TF it is one of several separate but related issues within marketing analytics to answer the question: “is my advertising working”. You can look at this as effectiveness measures, audience analytics and attribution. When we talk about attribution we really mean just this piece. When we read around this subject we find that people can often confuse these issues, which just makes it harder to think through clearly. Audience Analytics: What audiences are most likely to meet your client’s marketing objectives Effectiveness Measures: How you decide if a campaign is working or not and how you compare media owners Attribution: How to you decide how much to pay each provider for their service
  • Here’s an illustrative example of why this matters. If you have a shopping basket and you need to award your media partners for driving conversions to that shopping basket then you need to know how much to pay them. If you just have one search partner on the entire plan – one player on the team - and an organic or paid search click results in a conversion then you pay “1” to the search partner. Life would be simple. For many small business who use only SEM this is the case, though don’t ask how they know whether the ad in the local paper is working or not
  • However, it turns out that as much as 75% of the last exposures to an ad before a conversion are search terms while display ads are more dominant in earlier stages of the funnel. Every team has more than one player.
  • But we know that’s a bad idea because there have been plenty of studies to show that search and display work better together from an overall effectiveness perspective than separately. In this case, without good attribution, it’s like dropping your wingers because they’re not scoring goals but not noticing that they were helping to create goals.
  • But we know that’s a bad idea because there have been plenty of studies to show that search and display work better together from an overall effectiveness perspective than separately. In this case, without good attribution, it’s like dropping your wingers because they’re not scoring goals but not noticing that they were helping to create goals.
  • If, instead, you had only a ppc or click to conversion partner on the media plan your attribution model would be in danger of not only paying one player in your team but possibly paying for goals that hadn’t even crossed the line, or if it was possible, crossed the wrong line. Look at the conversion behaviours for this UK business banking client. In this example, the converting behaviours are predominantly executive careers and executive cars. This is the profile of a small business owner.
  • What if you are using last view attribution? i.e. the media partner showing the last ad before the user converts gets the full display ad conversion attribution. This is the prevalent model today for display and while we think it is the “least worst” option versus click through rate measurement and click to conversion attribution it does lead to bad practice. In our example here, a user has already visited the site. Now all the media partners in the plan with a retargeting pixel on the site are incentivised to show as many ads as possible to the use on the cheapest inventory they can find whether that ad was visible on the page or not. The infamous “spray and pray technique. This happens even though we often know the timelag between a visit and a conversion event. Which should tell you to dial down post-visit impressions after a certain time lapse and try to bring people to the site for that investigative visit.
  • Last view attribution is like encouraging everyone to goal hang and hope someone else humps into the box for them to bang it in. It’s not wrong – after all “people do what you measure not what you expect” - but it’s not pretty and it doesn’t encourage best practice. Think Wimbledon 1988 versus Barcelona 2011.
  • No good reason for this slide...
  • We’re going to walk through various attribution scenarios to examine the potential issues and build up a picture of how to think about attribution. Then we’ll look at what you can do about it today.
  • This is an example of a methodology sometimes called even attribution. Originator: First source, makes the introduction Converter: Last source before the transaction Assist: 2 nd to last source before the transaction This is something you can implement immediately. You can run your in-house analytics to determine this, and we know that many digital agencies do this. And you can set up to award conversions in this way (you already deduplicate conversions on a last view basis) One thing you need to know though is what your cost per acquisition should be: that’s a whole other conversation.
  • The second thing you need is a data collection strategy and data warehousing infrastructure. For data collection you need to in a position to collect data on as many touch points for your client as possible. For data warehousing it used to be that you couldn’t buy anything off the shelf. That’s not quite true any more and companies like Netezza and Greenplum can help now. Integration, though, as always, is challenging. However, they approach this as an IT systems and infrastructure problem to solve, which is why they were bought by IBM and EMC respectively. We think the market is moving too fast and expectations too customised to solve by throwing hardware at the problem. We also think they will struggle to stay flexible enough. We’ve seen attribution reporting based on internal infrastructure from Artemis via Havas and from ZAP via the Mig. I’m sure there are others. Agencies are making good progress here but, as ever, the question is whether they can maintain the in house tech investment required
  • The final thing you can do about attribution is to make sure you have the right tag management infrastructure across your client sties. This isn’t always your choice, the client will often select the vendor, but we find that tag addition and removal is a key barrier to effective campaign management, timely audience analytics and even attribution itself. Add, edit or remove ANY online marketing tag/pixel instantly, direct from the web page and without changing the code of the site Load all page tags/pixels only when they are needed and not compromising page download speeds See all the online marketing events – search, display, email, affiliates, social media - that appear in a customer's path to conversion, in order, in detail and in real-time Award credit and commission across all online channels based on every channel's real role in the path to conversion and according to flexible attribution models There are a number of new players in this space that can provide this along with the traditional vendors of container tags like DFA and Atlas
  • Networks - Move away from last ad view but still want a higher mix for online display Google - Need to protect last click search business. Still >80% of revenues Tag management - Convince you current tag management is not sufficient Attribution “specialists” - You’re duplicating payments so they can save you money and you need their models to improve ROI Agency tech - You need to switch to a Havas or Group M agency
  • What if it’s a lot more complicate than that with multiple ad impressions, generic product keyword search terms and brand keyword searches terms? What if there are rich media interactions, social interactions, affiliates and emails? In this case there is a major challenge in tracking the interactions on all the events, storing them and sorting them. Looking across the full spectrum of marketing activity, what do you do if the plans has offline components to the plan like tv, radio and outdoor? The point is, with attribution, you are never done.
  • The problem with even attribution models is that they tend to be static, take a long time to complete the original studies and then come back to the planning team in a format that may be difficult to interpret. They tell you what would have happened under constant conditions for different payouts. This is descriptive but not predictive. What Tribal Fusion is interested in is being predictive. We want to optimise campaigns based on live attribution inputs. Dynamic regression attribution models need you to collect all the campaign data then run regression models in real-time to understand which events are more predictive of driving conversions than others. As enough data is gathered those weightings will change over time as the campaign evolves and various components are added to or removed from the plan. From a TF perspective this is what we want to get to. We would love the conversion feed so we could work out which audiences are more or less likely to convert and the real-time attribution weighting feed so that we could add those variables to our optimisation. Limit the scope to what we can measure. i.e. If we know that last view ads are not being attributed a high score and we know that an impression is more likely to be a last ad (from time to convert analysis) then we can downweight the scoring for that impression and award it to another campaign. Equally, if we know that early session impressions are being awarded then we can optimise to find users early in the day with first impressions that we see on them. We have a research paper on this that we’re happy to share with your technical teams. Our first step is to develop this on our network so that we’re sure we are doing the right things. When we get there the idea is to be able to provide this as a solution for our clients.
  • What if it’s a lot more complicate than that with multiple ad impressions, generic product keyword search terms and brand keyword searches terms? What if there are rich media interactions, social interactions, affiliates and emails? In this case there is a major challenge in tracking the interactions on all the events, storing them and sorting them. Looking across the full spectrum of marketing activity, what do you do if the plans has offline components to the plan like tv, radio and outdoor? The point is, with attribution, you are never done.
  • Understanding Attribution: IAB Customer Conversion Journey Seminar

    1. 1. UNDERSTANDING ATTRIBUTION <ul><li>DOUG CONELY | SENIOR DIRECTOR, GLOBAL DATA & TARGETING </li></ul>
    2. 2. AGENDA <ul><li>“ Last view attribution is the least worst solution today” </li></ul><ul><li>If you don’t like it there are things you can do right now </li></ul><ul><li>But dynamic multi-touch attribution is the real solution </li></ul>
    3. 3. DIFFERENT WAYS TO ASK “IS MY ADVERTISING WORKING?” Attribution Effectiveness Measures Audience Analytics
    4. 4. AGENDA <ul><li>“ Last view attribution is the least worst solution today” </li></ul><ul><li>If you don’t like it there are things you can do right now </li></ul><ul><li>But dynamic multi-touch attribution is the real solution </li></ul>
    5. 5. SEARCH ONLY ATTRIBUTION +1 Brand keyword click
    6. 6. SEARCH ONLY ATTRIBUTION +1 Illustrative Brand keyword click
    7. 7. SEARCH ONLY ATTRIBUTION +1 Brand keyword click
    8. 8. SEARCH AND DISPLAY IN COMBINATION +1 Brand keyword click Display ad impression
    9. 9. +1 Brand keyword click Display ad impression
    10. 10. CLICK TO CONVERSION MEASUREMENT +1 Display ad click Conversion behaviours
    11. 11. CLICK TO CONVERSION MEASUREMENT +1 Display ad click Click behaviours
    12. 12. LAST VIEW ATTRIBUTION +1 Display ad impression 3 Display ad impression 2 Display ad impression 1 Site visit http://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2010/11/24/spray-and-pray-baby-the-insider-view-on-the-dysfunctional-state-of-display/
    13. 13. LAST VIEW ATTRIBUTION +1 Display ad impression 3 Display ad impression 2 Display ad impression 1 Site visit Wimbledon 1988 FA Cup Barcelona 2006, 2009, 2011 European Cup 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011 La Liga 2009 Copa del Rey
    14. 14. LAST VIEW ATTRIBUTION +1 Display ad impression 3 Display ad impression 2 Display ad impression 1 Site visit
    15. 15. AGENDA <ul><li>“ Last view attribution is the least worst solution today” </li></ul><ul><li>If you don’t like it there are things you can do right now </li></ul><ul><li>But dynamic multi-touch attribution is the real solution </li></ul>
    16. 16. THE PERILS OF POOR ATTRIBUTION CONTROL AND ANALYSIS… Paying more than once for the same conversion Encourages bad practice among display participants Spend optimised to the “wrong” media partners 1 2 3 ? … AND WHAT YOU CAN DO ABOUT IT
    17. 17. THE PERILS OF POOR ATTRIBUTION CONTROL AND ANALYSIS… Paying more than once for the same conversion Encourages bad practice among display participants Spend optimised to the “wrong” media partners 1 2 3 … AND WHAT YOU CAN DO ABOUT IT Attribution analysis framework Campaign data collection Tag management instrumentation 1 2 3
    18. 18. ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK |EVEN ATTRIBUTION WEIGHTING Source: http://c3metrics.com/white-paper/ > This is a great starting place but not the end goal 1
    19. 19. CAMPAIGN DATA COLLECTION Social Media SEM/ SEO Display Affiliates Email 2
    20. 20. TAG MANAGEMENT INSTRUMENTATION 3
    21. 21. THE PERILS OF POOR ATTRIBUTION CONTROL AND ANALYSIS… Paying more than once for the same conversion Encourages bad practice among display participants Spend optimised to the “wrong” media partners Attribution analysis framework Campaign data collection Tag management instrumentation 1 2 3 1 2 3 … AND WHAT YOU CAN DO ABOUT IT
    22. 22. REMEMBER THAT EVERYONE HAS A VESTED INTEREST HERE…
    23. 23. AGENDA <ul><li>“ Last view attribution is the least worst solution today” </li></ul><ul><li>If you don’t like it there are things you can do right now </li></ul><ul><li>But dynamic multi-touch attribution is the real solution </li></ul>
    24. 24. RECOGNISE THE USER JOURNEY +1 Brand keyword searches Display ad impression 2 Display ad impression 1 Generic product keyword searches +1 +1 +0.25 +0.25 +0.25 +0.25 +f( x ) +f( x ) +f( x ) +f( x ) Last View Last Click Linear Multi-Touch Dynamic Mulit-Touch
    25. 25. TF APPROACH: DYNAMIC REGRESSION ATTRIBUTION MODELS Campaign Delivery Attribution Analysis Campaign Planning Attribution in the typical campaign lifecycle Campaign Delivery Attribution as part of campaign optimisation
    26. 26. WITH ATTRIBUTION YOU ARE NEVER DONE… +1 Brand keyword searches Display ad impression 2 Display ad impression 1 Generic product keyword searches
    27. 27. FURTHER READING <ul><li>http://blog.comscore.com/2010/12/rid_meddlesome_click.html </li></ul><ul><li>http://c3metrics.com/white-paper/ </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.atlassolutions.com/uploadedFiles/Atlas/Atlas_Institute/Published_Content/dmi-TheLongRoadtoConversion.pdf </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.iab.net/media/file/IAB_WHITE_PAPER_FINAL_AUGUST-3-2010.pdf </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.havasdigital.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/HD_Insight_AttributionDM.pdf </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.ensighten.com/whitepapers </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.exchangewire.com/blog/2010/11/24/spray-and-pray-baby-the-insider-view-on-the-dysfunctional-state-of-display/ </li></ul><ul><li>http://blog.tribalfusion.co.uk/?p=116 </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=152611 </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.clearsaleing.com/archives/2011/06/14/clearsaleing%E2%80%99s-altitude-exposes-a-36-percent-flaw-in-last-%C2%ADad-attribution/ </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.omniture.com/offer/953?cms_site_lang=1&s_rtid=37079&&s_iid=31017&ct=email&cp=customer%20retention </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.tagman.com/index.php/forrester-white-paper </li></ul><ul><li>http://collective.com/insight/causal-attribution </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.clearsaleing.com/a-guide-to-market-leadership-in-2012 / </li></ul><ul><li>http://econsultancy.com/uk/blog/9022-credit-where-it-s-due-dealing-with-the-myths-of-attribution </li></ul>
    28. 28. AGENDA <ul><li>“ Last view attribution is the least worst solution today” </li></ul><ul><li>If you don’t like it there are things you can do right now </li></ul><ul><li>But dynamic multi-touch attribution is the real solution </li></ul>

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