12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 1
Applying Deductive, Inductive, and Abductive
Reasoning to the S...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 2
Didier Koffi
Principal Business Architect
Pragmatic Cohesion Co...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 3
About Presenter’s Firm
• Since 2010, Pragmatic Cohesion has pro...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 4
CAI Achieves IT Operational Excellence
www.compaid.com
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Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
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PDU Credits Available for this Webinar
• The PMI has approved t...
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Online Webinar Recordings
NOW AVAILABLE
• Anytime Access
• Hund...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 7
Enjoy the benefits of ITMPI Membership
JOIN TODAY!
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Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
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Outline:
• Deductive Reasoning
• Inductive Reasoning
• Abductiv...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 9
Deductive reasoning is a form of reasoning that
shows that cert...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 10
Deductive reasoning is Top-Down, from generalizations
to parti...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 11
Inductive reasoning asserts that something is
probably true gi...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 12
• With Inductive reasoning we consider a “mass of
evidence” th...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 13
Abductive reasoning is concern with imaginative reasoning, a
p...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 14
Abductive reasoning is also used to generate inference
network...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 15
Eco’s “Overcoded Abduction” according to Schum
• We observe cl...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 16
From Evidence to Hypothesis Example
H=Hypothesis Set H=It rain...
12/1/2016
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Slide: 17
To go from Solution System Features to User Needs, we use Abdu...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 18
The Argument is
embedded in the
structure of a
Hierarchy of
Re...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 19
Evidence to Hypothesis Solution System Feature to User Need
H:...
12/1/2016
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Slide: 20
The Hierarchy of Requirements is
constructed to maximize:
P(R|...
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Slide: 21
The Solution System Features
are crafted to maximize:
P(S|R) :...
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Slide: 22
Features included in Solution System = S
Features not included...
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Slide: 23
We recommend viewing
the LinkedIn presentation
titled “ 6-Dime...
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Slide: 24
Reasoning Examples
• The User Needs are similar to the Hypothe...
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Slide: 25
Reasoning Examples
• Example of AQUATIO drinking fountain:
– U...
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Slide: 26
Reasoning Examples
• In turn, the lowest level of the Requirem...
12/1/2016
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Slide: 27
• X has property G (we wish to know why)
• If entity A has par...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 28
Reasoning Examples
Thagard’s “Existential Abduction” according...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 29
Reasoning Examples
Motivation
(Why)
Process
(How)
Data
(What)
...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 30
Motivation
(Why)
Process
(How)
Data
(What)
Contextual
(Scope)
...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 31
Motivation
(Why)
Process
(How)
Data
(What)
Contextual
(Scope)
...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 32
Motivation
(Why)
Process
(How)
Data
(What)
Contextual
(Scope)
...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 33
Motivation
(Why)
Process
(How)
Data
(What)
Contextual
(Scope)
...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 34
Motivation
(Why)
Process
(How)
Data
(What)
Contextual
(Scope)
...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 35
Motivation
(Why)
Process
(How)
Data
(What)
Contextual
(Scope)
...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 36
Motivation
(Why)
Process
(How)
Data
(What)
Contextual
(Scope)
...
12/1/2016
Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc.
Slide: 37
References:
• “Enterprise Business Motivation Model (EBMM)
TRI...
12/1/2016
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Slide: 38
Questions?
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Slide: 39
CAI Sponsors Proudly Sponsors
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Hosted by:
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ITMPI
Jessica_Dahbour@compaid.com
D...
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Deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning and their application in transforming user needs into a solution system

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Deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning and their application in transforming user needs into a solution system

  1. 1. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 1 Applying Deductive, Inductive, and Abductive Reasoning to the System Development Life-Cycle (SDLC)
  2. 2. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 2 Didier Koffi Principal Business Architect Pragmatic Cohesion Consulting, LLC didier@pragmaticohesion.com Hosted by: Jessica Dahbour ITMPI Jessica_Dahbour@compaid.com
  3. 3. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 3 About Presenter’s Firm • Since 2010, Pragmatic Cohesion has provided state of the art Business Architecture and Business Systems Analysis services that take advantage of our cutting edge approach to Enterprise Stakeholders’ collaboration and Business Model Assessment. • Our latest product is named the EBMM-TRIADs™ 3-day Assessment Workshop that measures your organization's ability to deliver outcomes that properly respond to the expectations and constraints imposed upon your business by its environment: markets, customers, suppliers, partners, competitors, regulators, shareholders, and various stakeholders. The assessment does so by asking a comprehensive set of simple questions that only require your familiarity with the various aspects of your business; NO books of records or balance sheets needed!
  4. 4. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 4 CAI Achieves IT Operational Excellence www.compaid.com
  5. 5. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 5 PDU Credits Available for this Webinar • The PMI has approved this webinar with PDUs • You will be eligible to receive 1.0 PDU credits • Your PDU email will be sent to you • This webinar is mapped to the TALENT TRIANGLE
  6. 6. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 6 Online Webinar Recordings NOW AVAILABLE • Anytime Access • Hundreds of Topics Visit: www.ITMPI.org/library
  7. 7. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 7 Enjoy the benefits of ITMPI Membership JOIN TODAY! • UNLIMITED Free Webinar Recordings • UNLIMITED Free PDU Credits • Hundreds of Topics Visit: www.ITMPI.org/subscribe
  8. 8. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 8 Outline: • Deductive Reasoning • Inductive Reasoning • Abductive Reasoning • From Evidence to Hypothesis • From Solution System Feature to User Need • Requirements Validation • System Verification • Reasoning types across the System Development Life Cycle (SDLC) • Illustrative Example Applying Deductive, Inductive, and Abductive Reasoning to the System Development Life-Cycle (SDLC)
  9. 9. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 9 Deductive reasoning is a form of reasoning that shows that certain conclusions follow necessarily from true premises Thale’s Theorem: Wikipedia In geometry, Thales' theorem states that if A, B and C are points on a circle where the line AB is a diameter of the circle, then the angle ∠ACB is a right angle
  10. 10. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 10 Deductive reasoning is Top-Down, from generalizations to particulars or from hypothesis to evidence.
  11. 11. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 11 Inductive reasoning asserts that something is probably true given some evidence relevant to it.
  12. 12. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 12 • With Inductive reasoning we consider a “mass of evidence” that we believe is relevant to a set of hypothesis H. The probabilistic nature of inductive inference comes from the following characteristics of the “mass of evidence”: – It is incomplete – It is inconclusive (It is consistent to some degree with the truth of every hypothesis in H) – It may be vague or imprecise – It may be dissonant (some of it favors one hypothesis and some favor others) – Its sources may not be perfectly credible
  13. 13. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 13 Abductive reasoning is concern with imaginative reasoning, a process through which new ideas or hypotheses come into existence based on observations. In deductive reasoning a conclusion is already embedded in its premises. In inductive reasoning, a hypothesis or idea already exists and we are just establishing probabilistic grounds for it.
  14. 14. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 14 Abductive reasoning is also used to generate inference networks: the skillful combination of relevance and credibility characteristics of evidence.
  15. 15. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 15 Eco’s “Overcoded Abduction” according to Schum • We observe clue E* (E* being evidence that event E occurred) • Based on our prior knowledge of contexts in which things like event E have occurred, we say: “Whenever something like H has occurred, then something like E has also occurred.” Rephrased, we might say: “If H were true, then E would follow as a matter of course.” • Thus, there is reason to suspect that H may explain the occurrence of clue E*. In other words, clue E* points to H as a possible explanation for its occurrence. From Evidence to Hypothesis
  16. 16. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 16 From Evidence to Hypothesis Example H=Hypothesis Set H=It rained overnight; Hc= It did not rain overnight E=Event relevant in an Inference about H E=My lawn is wet; Ec=My lawn is not wet E*=Evidence that E occurred E*:My hands were wet after touching a patch of grass From E* to E : Credibility Stage P(E*|E) Hit probability P(My hands were wet after touching a patch of grass | My lawn is wet) P(E*|Ec) False positive probability P(My hands were wet after touching a patch of grass | My lawn is not wet) From E to H : Relevance Stage P(E|H) > P(E|Hc) E favors H over Hc If P(My lawn is wet | It rained overnight) >P(My lawn is wet| It did not rain overnight) then ‘My lawn is wet’ favors H ‘It rained overnight’ P(E|H) < P(E|Hc) E favors Hc over H If P(My lawn is wet | It rained overnight) <P(My lawn is wet| It did not rain overnight) then ‘My lawn is wet’ favors Hc ‘It did not rain overnight’
  17. 17. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 17 To go from Solution System Features to User Needs, we use Abductive Reasoning through our imagination to generate an “Argument” much similar to linking Evidence to Hypothesis. From Solution System Features to User Needs
  18. 18. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 18 The Argument is embedded in the structure of a Hierarchy of Requirements: from detailed Technical Requirements and Specifications, System Requirements, Business Requirements, up to Mission Requirements. From Solution System Features to User Needs
  19. 19. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 19 Evidence to Hypothesis Solution System Feature to User Need H: Hypothesis Set User Need = UN E: Event relevant in an Inference about H Requirement= R : R satisfies UN E*: Evidence that E occurred System Features = S : Evidence that R is implemented From E* to E : Credibility Stage From S to R : Verification Stage P(E*|E) Hit probability P(S|R): is Requirement implemented? P(E*|Ec) False positive probability P(S|Rc): is Requirement not implemented? From E to H : Relevance Stage From R to UN : Validation Stage P(E|H) > P(E|Hc) E favors H over Hc P(R|UN) > P(R|UNc) : R satisfies UN over UNc P(E|H) < P(E|Hc) E favors Hc over H P(R|UN) < P(R|UNc) : R satisfies UNc over UN
  20. 20. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 20 The Hierarchy of Requirements is constructed to maximize: P(R|UN) > P(R|UNc) : the probability that the Requirements Hierarchy (R) satisfies User Needs (UN); which is the primary index of Requirements Validation Requirements Validation
  21. 21. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 21 The Solution System Features are crafted to maximize: P(S|R) : the likelihood that Requirements (R) are implemented by the Solution System Features (S); which is the primary Index of System Verification. System Verification
  22. 22. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 22 Features included in Solution System = S Features not included in Solution System = Sc Current User Needs=UN Not User Needs = UNc Requirements Hierarchy= R P(R|UN) > P(R|UNc) : R satisfies User Needs P(R|UN) < P(R|UNc) : R does not satisfy User Needs Validation Stage = Inductive Reasoning P(S|R) : are Requirements implemented? P(S|Rc) : are Requirements not implemented? Verification Stage Requirements Hierarchy is created through Abductive Reasoning Deductive Reasoning Deductive Reasoning Reasoning types across the System Development Life Cycle (SDLC)
  23. 23. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 23 We recommend viewing the LinkedIn presentation titled “ 6-Dimension Business Model” for an in-depth coverage on how to assemble a linked set of credibility and relevance evidence to transform Customer Demands and Relationships (User Needs) into appropriate and profitable Product and Service offerings. class EBMM Framework WHATWHY Business Policy Policy Type Mission Vision Principle Directive Business Initiative/Program Driver Business Goal Capability Road Map Charter/Legislation Business Strategy/Objective Success Metric/Measure Influencer Business Rules and Facts Customer Demand and Relationship Value Proposition RegulationCompetitive Pressure Business Trend Competitive Opportunity Business Model Assessment Business Judgement Potential ImpactPotential Reward Risk Issues StrengthWeakness Recommendation of Change WHO Stakeholder Governance Body Business Unit Business Alliance and Partnership Influencing Organization Market Segment Business Capability Required Competency Asset Product and Service Business Requirement Use Case or User Story Data Object WHERE Geography/ Locale Distribution Channels HOW Business Process / Activity Application System Interaction Point Application Feature Assessment Metric Process MetricKey Performance Indicator Finance and Revenue Model EBMM-TRIADS(TM) (c) 2013-2015 Pragmatic Cohesion Consulting LLC , All Rights Reserved requires describes governs use of described in responds to input to evaluates performs measures describes changes to provides impetus for Operates from targets quantifies responsible for governs tracks success of delivered through enforces generates provided by affect and demand tracks drives packages implemented through produces and consumes
  24. 24. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 24 Reasoning Examples • The User Needs are similar to the Hypothesis set. • The highest level of the Requirements Hierarchy such as Mission Requirements, correspond to the particulars or the evidence that we can deduce from the User Needs.
  25. 25. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 25 Reasoning Examples • Example of AQUATIO drinking fountain: – User Needs: A Drinking Fountain that does not splash water when user drinks directly from it and that requires minimal bending of user’ s body when operated. – Mission Requirements can de deduced from the formulation of use cases describing the interaction of the user with the Drinking Fountain in its expected operating environment(s).
  26. 26. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 26 Reasoning Examples • In turn, the lowest level of the Requirements Hierarchy such as the Technical Specifications resulting from design activities, can be used to deduce the Solution System Features. ”The fountain is shaped like a bowl and can be pivoted up to four inches which will considerably reduce the need to bend over when drinking water from the fountain. By pressing left side of the fountain, cold water will start to flow and pressing the right side will give you room temperature water.”
  27. 27. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 27 • X has property G (we wish to know why) • If entity A has particular relation R to any X, then that X has property G • Thus, there is possibly some A that has relation R to X (which explains why X has property G) Reasoning Examples Thagard’s “Existential Abduction” according to Schum: • System X has Goal G (we wish to know why) • If entity A has particular relation R to any System X, then that System X has Goal G • Thus, there is possibly some A that has relation R to System X (which explains why System X has Goal G)
  28. 28. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 28 Reasoning Examples Thagard’s “Existential Abduction” according to Schum: • System X has Goal G (we wish to know why) • If entity A has particular relation R to any System X, then that System X has Goal G • Thus, there is possibly some A that has relation R to System X (which explains why System X has Goal G) • System X has Goal G (we wish to know why) • If entity A is a System Rule for[relation] any System X, then that System X has Goal G • Thus, there is possibly some A that is a System Rule for[relation] System X (which explains why System X has Goal G)
  29. 29. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 29 Reasoning Examples Motivation (Why) Process (How) Data (What) Contextual (Scope) [C1] System Goals [C2] System Functions [C3] List of things important to the System Conceptual (Business Model) [C4] System Rules P(C4|C1) > P(C4|C1c) [C5] System Processes P(C5|C2) > P(C5|C2c) [C6] System Entities P(C6|C3) > P(C6|C3c) Logical (System model) support support support support support P(C2|C1) > P(C2|C1c) P(C3|C1) > P(C3|C1c)
  30. 30. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 30 Motivation (Why) Process (How) Data (What) Contextual (Scope) [C1] System Goals Provide drinkable Fountain Water that does not splash water when user requests drinking directly from it and that requires minimal bending of user’ s body when operated. [C2] System Functions [C3] List of things important to the System Conceptual (Business Model) [C4] System Rules [C5] System Processes [C6] System Entities ? ? ? ? ?
  31. 31. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 31 Motivation (Why) Process (How) Data (What) Contextual (Scope) [C1] Provide drinkable Fountain Water that does not splash water when user requests drinking directly from it and that requires minimal bending of user’ s body when operated. [C2] [C3] List of things important to the System Conceptual (Business Model) [C4] System Rules [C5] [C6] drive ? ? are supported by
  32. 32. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 32 Motivation (Why) Process (How) Data (What) Contextual (Scope) [C1] Provide drinkable Fountain Water that does not splash water when user requests drinking directly from it and that requires minimal bending of user’ s body when operated. [C2] [C3] -Water trajectory from its source to its consumption point -Water purity -Water splash level -Water temperature -Anatomy and physiology of users Conceptual (Business Model) [C4] -User controls water on/off flow -A flow of water splashes over a surface based on the speed of the flow and the angle with which it hits the surface -User drinks directly from the fountain with his/her mouth [C5] [C6] drive are supported by
  33. 33. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 33 Motivation (Why) Process (How) Data (What) Contextual (Scope) [C1] Provide drinkable Fountain Water that does not splash water when user requests drinking directly from it and that requires minimal bending of user’ s body when operated. [C2] System Functions [C3] -Water trajectory from its source to its consumption point -Water purity -Water splash level -Water temperature -Anatomy and physiology of users Conceptual (Business Model) [C4] -User controls water on/off flow -A flow of water splashes over a surface based on the speed of the flow and the angle with which it hits the surface -User drinks directly from the fountain with his/her mouth [C5] [C6] drive used by ?
  34. 34. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 34 Motivation (Why) Process (How) Data (What) Contextual (Scope) [C1] Provide drinkable Fountain Water that does not splash water when user requests drinking directly from it and that requires minimal bending of user’ s body when operated. [C2] -Dispense drinkable water to user’s mouth when requested -Suppress water splashing when operated by user -Preserve user’s standing body position during operation [C3] -Water trajectory from its source to its consumption point -Water purity -Water splash level -Water temperature -Anatomy and physiology of users Conceptual (Business Model) [C4] -User controls water on/off flow -A flow of water splashes over a surface based on the speed of the flow and the angle with which it hits the surface -User drinks directly from the fountain with his/her mouth [C5] [C6] ? System Processes are supported by govern
  35. 35. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 35 Motivation (Why) Process (How) Data (What) Contextual (Scope) [C1] System Goals Provide drinkable Fountain Water that does not splash water when user requests drinking directly from it and that requires minimal bending of user’ s body when operated. [C2] System Functions -Dispense drinkable water to user’s mouth when requested -Suppress water splashing when operated by user -Preserve user’s standing body position during operation [C3] things important to the System -Water trajectory from its source to its consumption point -Water purity -Water splash level -Water temperature -Anatomy and physiology of users Conceptual (Business Model) [C4] System Rules -User controls water on/off flow -A flow of water splashes over a surface based on the speed of the flow and the angle with which it hits the surface -User drinks directly from the fountain with his/her mouth [C5] System Processes -Controlling water on/off flow -Routing fountain water -Controlling water temperature -Controlling distance between water flow trajectory and user’s mouth with minimal body bending -Controlling water flow shape, speed and angle of impact on receiving surface [C6] System Entities govern use of ?produce are supported by
  36. 36. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 36 Motivation (Why) Process (How) Data (What) Contextual (Scope) [C1] System Goals Provide drinkable Fountain Water that does not splash water when user requests drinking directly from it and that requires minimal bending of user’ s body when operated. [C2] System Functions -Dispense drinkable water to user’s mouth when requested -Suppress water splashing when operated by user -Preserve user’s standing body position during operation [C3] Things important to the System -Water trajectory from its source to its consumption point -Water purity -Water splash level -Water temperature -Anatomy and physiology of users Conceptual (Business Model) [C4] System Rules -User controls water on/off flow -A flow of water splashes over a surface based on the speed of the flow and the angle with which it hits the surface -User drinks directly from the fountain with his/her mouth [C5] System Processes -Controlling water on/off flow -Routing fountain water -Controlling water temperature -Controlling distance between water flow trajectory and user’s mouth with minimal body bending -Controlling water flow shape, speed and angle of impact on receiving surface [C6] System Entities -Users’ height range -Water drinkable quality -Water trajectories induced by water flow shape and speed -Angle between water flow and receiving surface -Water flow splash level -Distances between water flow and user’s mouth while standing -User’s body bending angle per water flow trajectories and user’s body heights
  37. 37. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 37 References: • “Enterprise Business Motivation Model (EBMM) TRIADS™ –The Chemistry of Business Architecture Alignment,” Koffi A.D., Journal of Enterprise Architecture, volume 11, number 1, pp28-40 (2015) • “A Model for Characterizing the Influence of the Zachman Framework’s Enterprise Architecture Perspectives,” Koffi A.D., Journal of Enterprise Architecture, volume 6, number 2, pp30-47 (2010) • “Structuring design Knowledge for Better Design Synthesis”, Tomiyama T., International conference on Engineering Design, August pp19-20 (2003) • “Species of Abductive Reasoning in Fact Investigation in Law," Schum D. ,Cardozo Law Review, Vol 22, Nos 5 - 6, pp1645 -1681 (2001) • “The engineering design of systems: models and methods”, Buede D.M. , Wiley, New York (2000). • "Probabilistic Reasoning and the Science of Complexity," Shanteau, J., Mellors. B., Schum, D. (Eds.) Decision Science and Technology, Kluwer Academic Press, pp183-209 (1999) • “Systems engineering and analysis” Blanchard B.S. and Fabrycky W.J. , Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ (1998)
  38. 38. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 38 Questions?
  39. 39. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 39 CAI Sponsors Proudly Sponsors The IT Metrics & Productivity Institute • Accelerating IT Success: News & Education: www.aits.org • The Strategic CIO: www.thestrategiccio.com • Calendar of LIVE daily webinars: www.itmpi.org/webinars • HUGE repository of webinar recordings: www.itmpi.org/library • Enjoy the Benefits of ITMPI Membership at: www.itmpi.org/subscribe • Automatic Registration for Live Webinars • Unlimited Free PDU and Recording Access for ONE YEAR • Access to Over 1000+ PDUs for a Period of ONE YEAR • Stay tuned for our awesome new mobile app, the Great IT Pro!
  40. 40. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 40 Easily Maintain Your PMP with Unlimited Access To Over 1,000 PDU Approved Webinars For One Low Yearly Price! www.itmpi.org/subscribe
  41. 41. 12/1/2016 Webinar Sponsored by Computer Aid, Inc. Slide: 41 Hosted by: Jessica Dahbour ITMPI Jessica_Dahbour@compaid.com Didier Koffi Principal Business Architect Pragmatic Cohesion Consulting, LLC didier@pragmaticohesion.com

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