Overview of the Economic and Social Impacts of the New Manzanillo Port  Alejandro Díaz-Bautista,  Ph.D.   Professor of Eco...
<ul><li>Mexico’s port system was centrally managed by public firms until 1993 reforms liberalized and decentralized it to ...
<ul><li>Since the privatization of Mexico's ports began in 1994, facilities at Manzanillo have registered substantial impr...
<ul><li>The Progress of Port Modernization in Colima is now conceived as a fundamental part of the transportation chain, a...
Port of Manzanillo, Colima <ul><li>Access channel: 816.8 m long; 120.00 m width; 12.5 m depth. </li></ul><ul><li>Navigatio...
 
<ul><li>Supporting services for the port are a major target for inward investment and the port's expanding capacity is a d...
The economic role that the port of Manzanillo plays is significant. Manzanillo is the principle gateway for the Center and...
Mexican Ports <ul><li>After handling just 2,670 cargo containers in 2003, the Port of Lazaro Cardenas Michoacan grew to 16...
Sector Configuration in Mexican Ports
Mexican Ports in Development
WHAT DO STATES LIKE COLIMA WANT? <ul><li>An economic base that generates tax revenues. </li></ul><ul><li>Good jobs for res...
Colima’s Economy <ul><li>Colima’s economy relies heavily on agricultural production, coffee and particularly fruits and ve...
<ul><li>Colima has two massive thermoelectric power plants located in Manzanillo. The plants supply the entire state with ...
Colima’s Economy LNG Plant <ul><li>Mexico's CFE and Pemex have launched the tender for the construction of a US$430mn liqu...
NewPort Manzanillo's Economic Impact Benefits for the Region <ul><li>Initial investment in the port and rail line has been...
821 hectares = 9,819,078.28 yrd² 9000 meters = 5.59 miles  NewPort Manzanillo, Colima
Berth Depth Considerations at the Port   <ul><li>Design Depth  </li></ul><ul><li>-  Future max draft. </li></ul><ul><li>- ...
 
Berth Alignment in the Port <ul><li>Provides flexibility </li></ul><ul><li>Can accommodate mix of ships </li></ul><ul><li>...
NewPort Manzanillo, Colima
Newport Manzanillo Economic Development Impacts <ul><li>An Input Output System Approach </li></ul><ul><li>The economic dev...
Port’s Economic Impact Method:  State’s Input-Output Model  <ul><li>The I-O Matrix is used to estimate the quantifiable im...
Input-Output Models <ul><li>Origin and Previous Work on I-O Models: </li></ul><ul><li>Wassily Leontief - 1974 Nobel Prize ...
Input-Output Modeling <ul><li>Uses of I-O </li></ul><ul><li>Projection of output requirements to meet levels of final dema...
<ul><li>Colima’s Newport Manzanillo has positive indirect economic impacts in other sectors of the Economy. Agribusiness a...
<ul><li>Newport Manzanillo will also develop: </li></ul><ul><li>Develop marine terminals, rail terminals and other facilit...
NewPort Manzanillo's Economic  and Social Impact Benefits for the Region <ul><li>The Port is willing to invest for the lon...
NewPort Manzanillo's Economic  and Social Impact Benefits for the Colima Region <ul><li>The potential positive impacts of ...
NewPort Manzanillo's Economic  and Social Impact Benefits for the Colima Region <ul><li>The operation of Newport Manzanill...
Compliance of Economic, Environmental, Social and Health and Safety Management Systems <ul><li>The Newport Manzanillo proj...
Newport Manzanillo National and International Economic Perspective
Newport Manzanillo International Framework <ul><li>The Port will operate according to the International Ship and Port Faci...
<ul><li>The new econometric model for forecasting commercial traffic cargo for NewPort Manzanillo would be based in time s...
NewPort Manzanillo Econometric Model for Forecasting Cargo Traffic CROSS BORDER CROSS BORDER NATIONAL HINTERLAND COLIMA EC...
Increasing World Transhipments  (in Thousands of TEU’s)
<ul><li>World Largest Ports (TEU’s) </li></ul>
China is expanding its markets, and the U.S. becomes less important, Latin America also expands   Source: GIWTM
Latin America could absorb 10% of China’s container exports by 2010 Source: GIWTM
Latin Americas containers to the U.S. in 2006 were close to 3 million TEUs 2007 3.2 million TEUs 2015 4.2 million TEUs Alm...
Latin America imported 1.5 million TEUs from the U.S. in 2006. 2007 1.5 million TEUs 2015 2.0 million TEUs 3% average annu...
<ul><li>China is investing heavily in developing deep-water ports in Mexico to bring an unprecedented volume of containers...
<ul><li>China business projections are driving the frenzy to open Mexican ports to NAFTA corridors. Container traffic from...
Mexican alternative Port Projects to feed the US market are being discussed Manzanillo $3.5 billion  Alfa-Omega Line $4 bi...
<ul><li>Mexican President Felipe Calderón mentioned that he had a high priority in his plan to invest in the country's por...
<ul><li>Dr. Luis Tellez, Mexico's secretary of communications and transport and a strong proponent of the country's port d...
Mexico’s Multimodal Systems and Port Infrastructure in 2012 FUENTE: Programa Nacional de Infraestructura, Secretaría de Co...
Manzanillo in Nafta’s Superhighway <ul><li>The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU) gav...
<ul><li>The Ports-to-Plains Trade Corridor is a planned, multimodal transportation corridor including a multi-lane divided...
Manzanillo in Nafta’s Superhighway Colima has a total of 1,225 miles (1,971.5 kilometers) of highways. Colima’s highways c...
Growing Strength of Railroad Intermodal Facilities Port Rail Connections <ul><li>Manzanillo – Ciudad Juárez (FERROMEX) </l...
Growing Strength of Railroad Intermodal Facilities Port Rail Connections <ul><li>The passage across Mexico is possible bec...
Manzanillo in Nafta’s Superhighway <ul><li>This map shows the Super Highways now underway to connect the United States, Ca...
Alternative to NAFTA Superhighway, the Expansion of Panama Canal A secondary southern route for Asian containers traveling...
<ul><li>World growth to slow in 2008, but still expected to remain solid at 4.75 percent.  </li></ul><ul><li>Major emergin...
<ul><li>Although there has been a slowdown in trans-Pacific shipping this year, due largely to the downturn in the U.S. ho...
<ul><li>Ports like Newport Manzanillo, Colima are thriving gateways to international trade and economic prosperity. The im...
Overview of the Economic and Social Impacts of the New Manzanillo Port  Alejandro Díaz-Bautista,  Ph.D.   Professor of Eco...
References <ul><li>European Commission (1997). Guidelines on State Aid to Maritime Transport, Official Journal, C 205. </l...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Professor Alejandro Diaz-Bautista Port Economics Presentation

1,848 views

Published on

Overview of the Economic and Social Impacts of the New Manzanillo Port.

Alejandro Diaz-Bautista, Ph.D.

Professor of Economics and Researcher

adiazbau@gmail.com

Published in: News & Politics, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,848
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
29
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • One of the hardest decisions the port engineer has to make is the depth of the berth. Getting the balance between minimising capital expenditure and future proofing can be difficult. Most hub ports are building terminals with a depth of 18m and a few such a Tanjung Pelepas have designed for 19m
  • A straight quay provides flexibility and better crane utilisation A1200m quay provides quay provides for one Panamax, one post-Panamax and on ULCS. With a mix of smaller vessels and feeders it could be considered a 4 berth terminal but better to consider it as a single quay
  • A short term forecast can be developed by building on good national and local statistical information. The forecast of imports and exports will be based on the port’s potential market share of serving the immediate hinterland and the country as a whole. Industries adjacent to the port should be a captive market whereas landlocked neighbouring countries may have a choice To understand the transhipment potential you have to understand the regional trade and the shipping lines’ operations Longterm forecasts are more difficult and need to consider global trends. The globalisation of trade and the efficiency of containerisation has resulted in a year on year growth of 8% in container traffic. The longterm predictions will always be susceptible to variation due to external factors such a wars, political upheavals and global or regional depressions
  • Professor Alejandro Diaz-Bautista Port Economics Presentation

    1. 1. Overview of the Economic and Social Impacts of the New Manzanillo Port Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Ph.D. Professor of Economics and Researcher at the Department of Economics at Colef. Ph.D. Economic Consultant. Visiting Research Fellow and Guest Scholar 2008, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California San Diego (UCSD). January 30, 2008 . [email_address]
    2. 2. <ul><li>Mexico’s port system was centrally managed by public firms until 1993 reforms liberalized and decentralized it to regional port authorities to improve its efficiency. </li></ul><ul><li>The Port of Manzanillo, located on the Pacific coast, is one of the busiest ports in Mexico. </li></ul><ul><li>The Ministry of Transport and Communications, Manzanillo Port Administration (API) and the State Government are promoting a new port in Colima in order to expand the port’s capacity and to increase industrial activities in the region. </li></ul>
    3. 3. <ul><li>Since the privatization of Mexico's ports began in 1994, facilities at Manzanillo have registered substantial improvement in efficiency and the port has recorded rapid growth in recent years. Ships attended rose to 1,077 in 2000 from 700 in 1997, container movements increased to 426,717 from 256,425, and tonnage rose to 9.3 million from 7.9 million. The number of shipping lines, agencies, destinations and service companies has grown apace. </li></ul><ul><li>Manzanillo is Mexico's most important deep-sea port with 446,000 TEUs (Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit) of cargo imported through the port in 2005, the highest volume of cargo on the country's Pacific coast. </li></ul><ul><li>The port covers437 hectares and is outfitted with world-class navigational and cargo equipment. The Port of Manzanillo is a significant player in Mexico's industrial and commercial corridor carrying goods from all major points in Mexico. Internationally, the port has shipping lanes to the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Colombia, Peru and the Pacific Rim. </li></ul>
    4. 4. <ul><li>The Progress of Port Modernization in Colima is now conceived as a fundamental part of the transportation chain, and not solely as an infrastructure with a limited participation in market dynamics and the economy. </li></ul><ul><li>Manzanillo is Mexico's leading Pacific port, with shipping lines serving the Pacific Rim. </li></ul><ul><li>Manzanillo is a port capable of double-stacking containers onto railcars, providing efficient movement of cargo by a private railroad company, Ferromex, throughout Mexico and as far as the Texas border 1,000 miles away. </li></ul>
    5. 5. Port of Manzanillo, Colima <ul><li>Access channel: 816.8 m long; 120.00 m width; 12.5 m depth. </li></ul><ul><li>Navigation Channel: 1,263.5 m long; 120.00 m width; 12.5 m depth. </li></ul><ul><li>Two turning basins: 460.00 m diameter each one; 12.5 m depth. </li></ul><ul><li>Eight berthing positions. Band A (pier 2 and 3, length is 450.00 mts both); Band B (piers 4, 5 & 6, overall length is 570.00mts); and Band C (piers 7, 8 & 9, overall length is 685.00 mts) </li></ul><ul><li>All piers in Manzanillo are 3.5 Tons per Cubic Meter strength. </li></ul><ul><li>Also there is a very vast area for anchorage at the bay of Manzanillo. </li></ul>
    6. 7. <ul><li>Supporting services for the port are a major target for inward investment and the port's expanding capacity is a draw for other industrial activities. </li></ul><ul><li>The Port of Manzanillo represents the most important pole of economic development for the state of Colima. </li></ul>Colima officials see the port as the cornerstone for the state's economic development.
    7. 8. The economic role that the port of Manzanillo plays is significant. Manzanillo is the principle gateway for the Center and Bajio zones of Mexico. This area is integrated by 16 states that represent more than 60 percent of the integral gross production and 47 percent of the national population, for the foreign exchange by maritime traffic. The geographic position both internationally as well as nationally counts with an extensive influential zone in Mexico.
    8. 9. Mexican Ports <ul><li>After handling just 2,670 cargo containers in 2003, the Port of Lazaro Cardenas Michoacan grew to 160,000 containers in 2005. Nov, it is in the process of expanding its capacity to as much as 2.2 million units per year and with 6,000 acres at its disposal, experts predict the port could handle upwards of 6 million containers within the next five years. </li></ul><ul><li>The Port of Ensenada, about 70 miles south of Tijuana, handled 123,000 containers in 2006, a number that is likely to rise significantly after the rail lines are built to the U.S. border in the near future. </li></ul><ul><li>The Port of Manzanillo in the state of Colima is Mexico’s Biggest port handling 1.2 million containers last year. </li></ul>
    9. 10. Sector Configuration in Mexican Ports
    10. 11. Mexican Ports in Development
    11. 12. WHAT DO STATES LIKE COLIMA WANT? <ul><li>An economic base that generates tax revenues. </li></ul><ul><li>Good jobs for residents (in the city or state of Colima). </li></ul><ul><li>An array of amenities for the residents. </li></ul><ul><li>Colima’s port system is being modernized to enable it to offer a competitive, quality service with international level tariffs. </li></ul><ul><li>The port supports the participation of the Colima economy in international trade markets. </li></ul>
    12. 13. Colima’s Economy <ul><li>Colima’s economy relies heavily on agricultural production, coffee and particularly fruits and vegetables such as lemons, bananas, corn, rice, maize, copra, mangoes, sugar cane, and avocados. Mining extraction of copper, lead, iron and salt are also important, and Colima accounted for more than one-third of the nation’s production of iron in the mid-1990s. Fishing, raising livestock, salt production, forestry and tourism are other significant economic activities. </li></ul><ul><li>The Revilla Gigedos islands produce sulphur, guano, timber, fruit, sheep and fish. </li></ul><ul><li>Colima has major technological industry with companies involved with software development, information technology, and biotechnical development. </li></ul><ul><li>Besides container facilities, Manzanillo port handles agricultural grains, plant and animal fluids, cement and raw materials, and has cold storage for perishables. A massive Pemex refueling station dominates the southwest curve of the port's bay. </li></ul><ul><li>A portion of the port of Manzanillo is reserved for fishing. The corporation, Marindustrias, operates a tuna fleet that can catch up to 20,000 tons of tuna a year and includes other vessels to catch species such as giant squid and shark. The company's processing plants are located within the port area. </li></ul>
    13. 14. <ul><li>Colima has two massive thermoelectric power plants located in Manzanillo. The plants supply the entire state with electrical energy. In addition, 95% of the power they generate goes to the rest of Mexico and is sold to other countries. </li></ul><ul><li>The new LNG project in Colima in its first stage the project will process about 500 million cubic feet a day of LNG and supply gas to the 1,200MW Manzanillo I and 700MW Manzanillo II thermoelectric plants in Colima state, the 565MW Bajío and 866MW Salamanca plants in Guanajuato state and the 601MW El Sauz plant in Queretaro state. </li></ul><ul><li>The project will also supply gas to the new Guadalajara I and II combined cycle projects in Jalisco state. </li></ul><ul><li>The LNG regasification project will be built in three years and create 1,500 direct jobs. </li></ul>Colima’s Economy Power Plants
    14. 15. Colima’s Economy LNG Plant <ul><li>Mexico's CFE and Pemex have launched the tender for the construction of a US$430mn liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification project in Manzanillo, Colima. With regards to the selection of the site for the LNG project, CFE originally selected a location near the thermo-electrical plant of Manzanillo, in the Lagoon of Cuyutlan, (Vaso I), where technically, economically, safety-wise, and environmentally, this project was very feasible. CFE heard the demands of the local residents of Manzanillo, and their perception of a more secure ambience for their suburbs. To alleviate their concern, CFE moved the project to the Canal de Tepalcates. </li></ul><ul><li>Therefore, the site for the construction of the Terminal for Liquid Natural Gas will be in the Lagoon of Cuyutlan (Vaso II), adjacent to the right flank of the Channel of Tepalcates, 12 km south of the Port of Manzanillo. </li></ul><ul><li>Currently, the access is via the Manzanillo-Campos road that also joins Federal Hwy. 200 Colima-Manzanillo. It also counts with railroad tracks that are adjacent to the site and that hook up to the Guadalajara-Manzanillo route that currently supplies the thermo-electrical plant with its “combustoleo”. </li></ul>
    15. 16. NewPort Manzanillo's Economic Impact Benefits for the Region <ul><li>Initial investment in the port and rail line has been estimated at as much as $3.5 billion. </li></ul><ul><li>According to the preliminary economic impact study, Newport Manzanillo is more than a center for trade and commerce in the state of Colima: it is a growing focal point of regional economic development, creating thousands of jobs, driving the economy of Colima and serving as a statewide and regional catalyst for economic development. </li></ul><ul><li>The port will have a designated zone for light industry and logistics. It is designed to serve as a transshipment center for onward movement of goods to North and South America, Asia and beyond. It will boast an integrated transport system with seamless high-speed transition from sea to rail, road and air, making Manzanillo the main gateway to Central Mexico. </li></ul>
    16. 17. 821 hectares = 9,819,078.28 yrd² 9000 meters = 5.59 miles NewPort Manzanillo, Colima
    17. 18. Berth Depth Considerations at the Port <ul><li>Design Depth </li></ul><ul><li>- Future max draft. </li></ul><ul><li>- Underkeel clearance. </li></ul><ul><li>- Allow for over dredge. </li></ul><ul><li>Accommodate ships with underkeel clearance at low water </li></ul><ul><li>Most hub terminals are designed for – 18m or – 19m. </li></ul>
    18. 20. Berth Alignment in the Port <ul><li>Provides flexibility </li></ul><ul><li>Can accommodate mix of ships </li></ul><ul><li>Good crane utilization </li></ul><ul><li>For hub optimum length may be 1200 m </li></ul>Straight
    19. 21. NewPort Manzanillo, Colima
    20. 22. Newport Manzanillo Economic Development Impacts <ul><li>An Input Output System Approach </li></ul><ul><li>The economic development contribution of the Port consists of both quantifiable impacts and intangible benefits. </li></ul><ul><li>The quantifiable contributions are measured in terms of jobs, income, local government revenues and similar economic indicators. </li></ul><ul><li>The intangible benefits include synergies with other industries that increase productivity and create a positive brand image that attract new investments. </li></ul><ul><li>The intangible benefits, though difficult to quantify, are essential for sustaining regional economic growth and development. </li></ul><ul><li>The I-O Matrix for Colima will be used to estimate all economic impacts in the economy. </li></ul>
    21. 23. Port’s Economic Impact Method: State’s Input-Output Model <ul><li>The I-O Matrix is used to estimate the quantifiable impacts and intangible benefits. The I-O matrix gives an more precise estimation of the direct and indirect effects. </li></ul><ul><li>Purpose: </li></ul><ul><li>Analyze Linkages among sectors of our Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Project Sector output requirements from an Economic change </li></ul><ul><li>Port Sector  Rest of the Economy </li></ul>
    22. 24. Input-Output Models <ul><li>Origin and Previous Work on I-O Models: </li></ul><ul><li>Wassily Leontief - 1974 Nobel Prize </li></ul><ul><li>Regional I/O Models - 1960’s </li></ul><ul><li>National I/O Model Mexico – </li></ul><ul><li>1980 – 1990 by INEGI and Bank of Mexico </li></ul><ul><li>Regional I/O Models 1990’s – 2000’s </li></ul>Leontief developed an input-output method for estimating economic impacts and tracing the flows of dollars. Professor Leontief won the Nobel Prize in 1973, largely related to the work in economic input output models.
    23. 25. Input-Output Modeling <ul><li>Uses of I-O </li></ul><ul><li>Projection of output requirements to meet levels of final demand. </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of economic changes in a sector due to a new project. </li></ul><ul><li>Uses of I-O </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Location of new industry in an area. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Government policy changes - local impacts. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Projection resource and labor needs </li></ul></ul><ul><li>L (I-A) -1 * y </li></ul><ul><li>L=vector (1 x n) of labor use per $ of output. </li></ul>
    24. 26. <ul><li>Colima’s Newport Manzanillo has positive indirect economic impacts in other sectors of the Economy. Agribusiness and mining as well as more recent industrial activities in electronics, automotive, and textiles and also the energy and tourism industry. </li></ul><ul><li>In automotive, it could impact in the development of regional clusters that take advantage of port infrastructure. It would also impact textiles and yarn and thread manufacturing. It would also have an impact in the field of electronics, such as software development and component manufacture for investment. </li></ul><ul><li>Impacts in the primary sector of the economy are expected. The port enhances economic impacts for modular pre-cooling units, tropical fruit processing and packaging plants, milk pasteurizing plants, and cattle and poultry production. The mining sector is also impacted, iron and steel production for the export market, ceramic and stone tile manufacturing, and limestone extraction, among others. </li></ul><ul><li>Some other sectors that are impacted would be the wood and cellulose extraction subsector, tropical wood production, and other activities. </li></ul>NewPort Manzanillo's Economic Impact Benefits for the Region
    25. 27. <ul><li>Newport Manzanillo will also develop: </li></ul><ul><li>Develop marine terminals, rail terminals and other facilities for handling cargo and accommodating passengers. </li></ul><ul><li>Buy and improve pieces of property for lease - or sometimes to sell - to private industry for industrial and commercial uses. </li></ul><ul><li>Provide air and water pollution control facilities. </li></ul><ul><li>Operate trade centers and export trading companies. </li></ul><ul><li>Provide environmental enhancement, protection and public access. </li></ul><ul><li>Build and operate or lease out marinas and related facilities and provide public boat ramps for public use. </li></ul>NewPort Manzanillo's Economic and Social Impact Benefits for the Region
    26. 28. NewPort Manzanillo's Economic and Social Impact Benefits for the Region <ul><li>The Port is willing to invest for the long-run prosperity of their communities. The Port will make significant investments in infrastructure and building facilities that will eventually house social projects that reinvest in the community. </li></ul><ul><li>Promotes tourism as an economic stimulus within the port district. </li></ul><ul><li>The Port is not only an important generator of income, jobs, and economic output, but it is also an important catalyst for attracting high-wage industries. High-wage industries generate economic benefits for all industries and create jobs (directly or indirectly) at all occupational levels. </li></ul>
    27. 29. NewPort Manzanillo's Economic and Social Impact Benefits for the Colima Region <ul><li>The potential positive impacts of Newport Manzanillo during construction include new employment opportunities and economic benefits to the State of Colima and to the government of Mexico due to the payment of taxes by the project. During operations, the Port is likely to have a positive economic impact in the State of Colima, mainly from taxes, as well as providing economic reactivation in many sectors associated with the employment opportunities related to the terminal’s operations. </li></ul><ul><li>The new Port will also help alleviate additional waiting times, provide additional competition regarding handling and storage fees and allow further specialization among the existing ports such that each port will handle the cargo type (containers, liquid cargo, grains, etc.) for which it is most suited. </li></ul>
    28. 30. NewPort Manzanillo's Economic and Social Impact Benefits for the Colima Region <ul><li>The operation of Newport Manzanillo’s port would generate jobs for Colima’s economy. </li></ul><ul><li>From the survey of employment and occupation, we observe that the Economically Active Population (EAP) in the state of Colima stood at 267,800 people, representing 62.3% of the population 14 years and older. Of these, 96.9% are occupied and the remaining 3.1% unemployed. </li></ul><ul><li>A total of 259,500 people are employed in the state, having increased by 2,500 over the last twelve months. Most of the growth in employment is located in the tertiary sector and small establishments. </li></ul><ul><li>Direct Employment associated with port related activities would exceed 17,000 jobs, which would be between 6.5 and 7% of all the jobs available in the state of Colima. </li></ul>
    29. 31. Compliance of Economic, Environmental, Social and Health and Safety Management Systems <ul><li>The Newport Manzanillo project complies with all adequacy and sufficiency of the proposed Economic, Environmental, Social and Health and Safety Management Systems, in terms of written policies and procedures, defined staff responsibilities, training programs, auditing/inspection programs, and reporting procedures, in particular the environmental, social and health and safety monitoring programs for both the project construction and operation phases, including independent (third-party) quality control or project supervision activities. </li></ul><ul><li>Also the adequacy and sufficiency of the project’s risks assessment for both the construction and operation phases including both natural hazards and man-induced risks (i.e., spills, fires,accidents, unplanned emissions/discharges, etc.) and the construction and operation phase contingency plans (emergency plan, spill prevention and control plan. </li></ul>
    30. 32. Newport Manzanillo National and International Economic Perspective
    31. 33. Newport Manzanillo International Framework <ul><li>The Port will operate according to the International Ship and Port Facilities Security Code (ISPSCode). </li></ul><ul><li>The objectives of this Code are to establish an international framework involving co-operation between Contracting Governments, Government agencies, local administrations and the shipping and port industries to detect/assess security threats and take preventive measures against security incidents affecting ships or port facilities used in international trade. </li></ul>
    32. 34. <ul><li>The new econometric model for forecasting commercial traffic cargo for NewPort Manzanillo would be based in time series analysis with the error correction model that is used in major Asian ports such as Hong Kong. It would also use a panel data technique combination for the cross section and time series. Some of the variables that are initially proposed for the estimation of the model are: the exchange rate, time series of regional exports and imports, GDP per capita in the hinterland of Colima Economy and at the national level, regional average revenue per crew, number of vessels, dummy variable for the year t where t is a period where there is a construction or extension of docks at other ports in the Pacific like Long beach, Los Angeles, Oakland, Topolobampo, Prince Rupert or Punta Colonet. Finally, it would consider the growth of the multimodel system in Mexico and growth of supply and demand for trading and transhipment ports in the Pacific. </li></ul>NewPort Manzanillo Econometric Model for Forecasting Cargo Traffic
    33. 35. NewPort Manzanillo Econometric Model for Forecasting Cargo Traffic CROSS BORDER CROSS BORDER NATIONAL HINTERLAND COLIMA ECONOMY TRANSHIPMENT IMPORT EXPORT PORT RELATED INDUSTRIES
    34. 36. Increasing World Transhipments (in Thousands of TEU’s)
    35. 37. <ul><li>World Largest Ports (TEU’s) </li></ul>
    36. 38. China is expanding its markets, and the U.S. becomes less important, Latin America also expands Source: GIWTM
    37. 39. Latin America could absorb 10% of China’s container exports by 2010 Source: GIWTM
    38. 40. Latin Americas containers to the U.S. in 2006 were close to 3 million TEUs 2007 3.2 million TEUs 2015 4.2 million TEUs Almost 4% average annual growth Exports from Latin America to the Far East (China) will grow by 6.0%/year and hit 1.4 million TEUs in 2015. Far East
    39. 41. Latin America imported 1.5 million TEUs from the U.S. in 2006. 2007 1.5 million TEUs 2015 2.0 million TEUs 3% average annual growth Imports from the Far East (China) will grow by 7.1%/year and hit 2 million TEUs in 2015. Far East
    40. 42. <ul><li>China is investing heavily in developing deep-water ports in Mexico to bring an unprecedented volume of containers into the U.S. along the emerging NAFTA Super Highway. This move signals China’s emergence as the unexpected economic winner in the North American Union free market. </li></ul>
    41. 43. <ul><li>China business projections are driving the frenzy to open Mexican ports to NAFTA corridors. Container traffic from China and the Far East has exploded, with industry experts expecting the cargo traffic from China to double by 2020. Today jumbo cargo ships containing 8,000 TEUs routinely cruise Pacific Trade routes. Unloading 8,000 containers from a single ship can take up to 3 days, even with experienced dock workers and state-of-the-art cranes. </li></ul><ul><li>West coast ports such as Los Angeles and Long Beach are regularly described as overwhelmed with containers arriving from the Far East, resulting in a virtual gridlock that causes expensive delays. As a result, inland ports such as the Free Trade Alliance of San Antonio and Kansas City Smartport, both members of the North America’s SuperCorridor Coalition Inc. (NASCO), are exploring with enthusiasm opening NAFTA corridors to facilitate the movement from Mexican ports 50% to 60% of all containers entering the U.S. from China that are destined for delivery in the heart of the U.S. </li></ul>
    42. 44. Mexican alternative Port Projects to feed the US market are being discussed Manzanillo $3.5 billion Alfa-Omega Line $4 billion Port Ruffo UP + Hutchison BNSF + Grupo Mexico MTC + Carlos Slim Others? <ul><li>MHFM Transport (Mexico) </li></ul><ul><li>SPV (Japan) </li></ul><ul><li>Arias Asia (China) </li></ul>Punta Colonet
    43. 45. <ul><li>Mexican President Felipe Calderón mentioned that he had a high priority in his plan to invest in the country's port infrastructure over the next five years through partnerships with the private sector. </li></ul><ul><li>His strategy also includes new ports and major improvements in the transportation infrastructure, as a lever to raise Mexico into a central role in North American supply chains, during the period 2008-2012. </li></ul>
    44. 46. <ul><li>Dr. Luis Tellez, Mexico's secretary of communications and transport and a strong proponent of the country's port development, asserted that Mexico has the resources and is in the process of making improvements. </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;Our great challenge in this scenario is to be able to achieve this quantum jump and to transform the port infrastructure into a world-wide class one, that really contributes to the rest of the Mexican economy,&quot; Dr. Luis Tellez, Mexico’s Minister of Transport and Communications. </li></ul><ul><li>At the top of the agenda will be expansion of the short-sea shipping. Currently, only about 1 percent of the $14 billion in U.S.-Mexico trade is handled via ocean shipping </li></ul>
    45. 47. Mexico’s Multimodal Systems and Port Infrastructure in 2012 FUENTE: Programa Nacional de Infraestructura, Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes
    46. 48. Manzanillo in Nafta’s Superhighway <ul><li>The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU) gave rise to new trading blocs that have underpinned the new integrated global marketplace. </li></ul><ul><li>The document also addresses the need to place an integrated North American economy and marketplace into an emerging global marketplace that is increasingly dominated by China and India. </li></ul><ul><li>Coupled with the emergence of new economic powers such as China and India, global marketplace integration is driving the distribution of economic activity, as well as the expansion of world trade. </li></ul><ul><li>Unloading the container in Mexican ports, such as Manzanillo and Lazaro Cardenas on Mexico's Pacific coast south of Texas, further reduces costs by using Mexican dock workers to unload the goods and Mexican trucks and Mexican trains to transport the goods north along trade corridor transportation infrastructure, such as TTC-35. The proposed TTC-35 corridor generally parallels I-35. The initial study area is approximately 600 miles long, extending from north of Dallas/Forth Worth to Mexico and possibly the Gulf Coast. </li></ul>
    47. 49. <ul><li>The Ports-to-Plains Trade Corridor is a planned, multimodal transportation corridor including a multi-lane divided highway that will facilitate the efficient transportation of goods and services from Manzanillo Mexico, through West Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, and Oklahoma, and ultimately on into Canada and the Pacific Northwest. </li></ul><ul><li>Together, the communities along the Ports-to-Plains Trade Corridor are becoming the Gateway to trade throughout the nation and with Mexico and Canada. The Ports-to-Plains Trade Corridor will provide a vast number of benefits for communities along the corridor. The Trade Corridor will allow for the development of less congested ports of entry along the Texas/Mexico border. In addition, it will provide alternatives to other congested corridors that run through major metropolitan areas. In doing so, the trade between Mexico, Canada, and the United States will continue to dramatically increase and all three nations will continue to see a rise in their regional mobility and economic status. </li></ul>Manzanillo in Nafta’s Superhighway
    48. 50. Manzanillo in Nafta’s Superhighway Colima has a total of 1,225 miles (1,971.5 kilometers) of highways. Colima’s highways connect with the NAFTA route, beginning in Manzanillo, passing through the cities of Tecomán and Colima and continuing on to Jalisco state where it joins the Guadalajara-Mexico highway to the U.S. and Canada.
    49. 51. Growing Strength of Railroad Intermodal Facilities Port Rail Connections <ul><li>Manzanillo – Ciudad Juárez (FERROMEX) </li></ul><ul><li>Lázaro Cárdenas y Pantaco–Nuevo Laredo (KCS) </li></ul><ul><li>Mexicali–Guadalajara–Querétaro– Pantaco (FERROMEX) </li></ul><ul><li>Veracruz–Pantaco (KCS and FERROSUR) </li></ul><ul><li>Mexican ports have faced a dramatic increase in cargo movement since the enactment of NAFTA in 1994. There has also been an exponential increase of imports from Asian countries. The increase in traffic coupled with the privatization of railroads in 1998, which brought the participation of international railroad corporations, is changing the profile of the transportation and logistics sector in Mexico. </li></ul><ul><li>At present the only port with a double stack train service is Manzanillo, where rail’s market share has been increasing: in the year 2000, around 40 per cent of its containers were moved by rail. Increasing 10% each year. This gives Manzanillo an additional competitive advantage that will allow it, in the long term, to continue climbing upwards in the global port hierarchy. </li></ul><ul><li>The Port of Manzanillo is a Mexican container port that can provide railroad service to the U.S. market, all the way to Kansas City. </li></ul>
    50. 52. Growing Strength of Railroad Intermodal Facilities Port Rail Connections <ul><li>The passage across Mexico is possible because of a new Mexican law that allows foreign freight to cross Mexico “in bond,” without tariffs or duties, if it travels to the U.S. market. Trucks do not have same advantage under the law, except when making deliveries the short distance between the Port of Ensenada in Baja California, Mexico, to the border city of Mexicali. </li></ul><ul><li>As freight moves by rail across Mexico toward the U.S. market, it can stop at San Luis Potosí in North Central Mexico for storage and services, also without incurring duties or tariffs, thanks to the foreign trade zone operating at an integrated logistics center. The 1,300-acre ceter is along Kansas City Southern’s “NAFTA Railway” route, as well as on the main truck corridor between Mexico City and Laredo, Texas in the U.S.-Mexico Border. </li></ul>
    51. 53. Manzanillo in Nafta’s Superhighway <ul><li>This map shows the Super Highways now underway to connect the United States, Canada, and Mexico to help bring about the creation of a North American Union similar to the European Union. </li></ul>
    52. 54. Alternative to NAFTA Superhighway, the Expansion of Panama Canal A secondary southern route for Asian containers traveling through the Panama Canal and linking up with Canadian National routes in Louisiana, or heading north into the Atlantic to connect with Canadian National in Halifax. The development of the port in Prince Rupert, B.C., as an official &quot;Asian Gateway“ is another alternative to NAFTA super highway.
    53. 55. <ul><li>World growth to slow in 2008, but still expected to remain solid at 4.75 percent. </li></ul><ul><li>Major emerging markets have taken over as leading contributors to global growth in 2008. U.S. economy expected to remain weak. Markets of Asia and Eastern Europe will experience some growth; the United States, Western Europe and Japan will be experience slower growth in 2008. Even with slower economic growth, container traffic growth will increase in the next 5 years will push many ports to their full capacity limits, before the Panama Canal is expanded. The search for alternative ports in Latin America, like Newport Manzanillo is on. </li></ul>
    54. 56. <ul><li>Although there has been a slowdown in trans-Pacific shipping this year, due largely to the downturn in the U.S. housing industry, trade is expected to double over the next 10 years and triple by 2025. </li></ul><ul><li>With the new generation of megaships carrying 8,000 to 10,000 TEUs – the standard measure of containerized cargo – West Coast ports are unlikely to be able to handle the load, despite expansion projects in the works everywhere from Prince Rupert in Canada to the giant Los Angeles-Long Beach complex that processes two-thirds of Asian shipments into the United States. </li></ul><ul><li>Newport Manzanillo will have facilities to handle cargo and dry bulk and will be equipped to receive the world’s largest vessels. </li></ul><ul><li>Newport Manzanillo yields intangible economic benefits that help sustain long term economic growth. </li></ul>
    55. 57. <ul><li>Ports like Newport Manzanillo, Colima are thriving gateways to international trade and economic prosperity. The impact that the new port has on job growth, generation of business revenues and overall quality of life is extraordinary. That makes the port an invaluable force in spurring regional, state and national economic growth. </li></ul><ul><li>An efficient and economically viable Port in Manzanillo is essential to the long run economic vitality of Colima. </li></ul>
    56. 58. Overview of the Economic and Social Impacts of the New Manzanillo Port Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, Ph.D. Professor of Economics and Researcher at the Department of Economics at Colef. Ph.D. Economic Consultant. Visiting Research Fellow and Guest Scholar 2008, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California San Diego (UCSD). January 30, 2008 . [email_address]
    57. 59. References <ul><li>European Commission (1997). Guidelines on State Aid to Maritime Transport, Official Journal, C 205. </li></ul><ul><li>CEPAL (2005), El Ciclo Marítimo y las Tendencias de América Latina. Boletín de la CEPAL No.228, de agosto. </li></ul><ul><li>Díaz-Bautista, Alejandro (2003), “The Determinants of Economic Growth: Convergence, Trade and Institutions”. “ Los determinantes del Crecimiento Económico: Comercio Internacional, Convergencia y las Instituciones”. Editorial Plaza y Valdez. </li></ul><ul><li>Díaz-Bautista, Alejandro (2007) “Los Puertos en México y la Política Económica Portuaria Internacional&quot; en Observatorio de la Economía Latinoamericana, Nº 92, 2008. Texto completo en http://www.eumed.net/cursecon/ecolat/mx/2008/adb.htm </li></ul><ul><li>Papageorgiou, K., Giannopoulos, G.: The Port System Reinvented: Could Process Orientation and a Dynamic Configuration of Actors be the Solution?, International Journal of Maritime Economics. </li></ul><ul><li>Peralta Sánchez, José Ignacio (2007), Consideraciones Teóricas para el Diseño de un Modelo de Pronóstico de la Carga Marítima como Fundamento para la Planeación del Desarrollo de la Infraestructura Portuaria en el Pacífico Mexicano. Secretaria de Fomento Económico del Estado de Colima. </li></ul><ul><li>Presidencia de la Republica (2007), El Primer Informe de Gobierno del Presidente Felipe Calderón, México. </li></ul><ul><li>SCT (2007), Primera Conferencia de Puertos Mexicanos y los Puertos de Los Angeles y Long Beach, Puerto de Los Ángeles, del 14 al 16 de noviembre del 2007. </li></ul><ul><li>SCT (2008), Datos de la Secretaria de Comunicaciones y Transportes. </li></ul><ul><li>UNCTAD (2006). Review of MaritimeTransport 2006. UNTACD, Geneva. </li></ul>

    ×