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Knowledge based system recognition

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KBSC ist die laufende systematische Analyse des aktuellen Projektsystems mit dem Ziel, Turbulenzen zu minimieren durch die Bewusstmachung der systemtheoretischen Muster.

Published in: Leadership & Management
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  • DOWNLOAD THAT BOOKS INTO AVAILABLE FORMAT (2019 Update) ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... Download Full PDF EBOOK here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full EPUB Ebook here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... Download Full doc Ebook here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... Download PDF EBOOK here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... Download EPUB Ebook here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... Download doc Ebook here { http://bit.ly/2m6jJ5M } ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... ................................................................................................................................... eBook is an electronic version of a traditional print book that can be read by using a personal computer or by using an eBook reader. (An eBook reader can be a software application for use on a computer such as Microsoft's free Reader application, or a book-sized computer that is used solely as a reading device such as Nuvomedia's Rocket eBook.) Users can purchase an eBook on diskette or CD, but the most popular method of getting an eBook is to purchase a downloadable file of the eBook (or other reading material) from a Web site (such as Barnes and Noble) to be read from the user's computer or reading device. Generally, an eBook can be downloaded in five minutes or less ......................................................................................................................... .............. Browse by Genre Available eBooks .............................................................................................................................. Art, Biography, Business, Chick Lit, Children's, Christian, Classics, Comics, Contemporary, Cookbooks, Manga, Memoir, Music, Mystery, Non Fiction, Paranormal, Philosophy, Poetry, Psychology, Religion, Romance, Science, Science Fiction, Self Help, Suspense, Spirituality, Sports, Thriller, Travel, Young Adult, Crime, Ebooks, Fantasy, Fiction, Graphic Novels, Historical Fiction, History, Horror, Humor And Comedy, ......................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................... .....BEST SELLER FOR EBOOK RECOMMEND............................................................. ......................................................................................................................... Blowout: Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth,-- The Ride of a Lifetime: Lessons Learned from 15 Years as CEO of the Walt Disney Company,-- Call Sign Chaos: Learning to Lead,-- StrengthsFinder 2.0,-- Stillness Is the Key,-- She Said: Breaking the Sexual Harassment Story That Helped Ignite a Movement,-- Atomic Habits: An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones,-- Everything Is Figureoutable,-- What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence,-- Rich Dad Poor Dad: What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!,-- The Total Money Makeover: Classic Edition: A Proven Plan for Financial Fitness,-- Shut Up and Listen!: Hard Business Truths that Will Help You Succeed, ......................................................................................................................... .........................................................................................................................
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Knowledge based system recognition

  1. 1. Knowledge Based System Cognition Peter Addor ANCHOR Management Consulting AG August 2008
  2. 2. Cobb‘s Paradox We know why projects fail, we know how to prevent their failure so why do they still fail? Martin Cobb (Treasury Board of Canada)
  3. 3. , ` Das Gesetzt der Migrations- und Integrationsprojekte Zielformulierung, AnforderungskatalogWork in Progress Wissen, auf was zu achten ist Issuelist .
  4. 4. Proj ektman ager Proje ktteam Marketing Managem ent PM des Kunden/Lief eranten Projektsysteme
  5. 5. Gegenseitige Abhängigkeit in Systemen
  6. 6. Zwei Parteien – einander abgewandt „Rot“ oder „Blau“ auf einen Zettel schreiben
  7. 7. Beispiel Gefangenendilemma Gruppe B Gruppe A BLAU ROT BLAU ROT +1 +1 -1 -1 -2 +5 +5 -2
  8. 8. Aufmerksamkeitschecks für den Fortgang der Handlung OK? OK? OK? OK? Sollzustand ja ja Routinebehandlung in vertrauter Umgebung („Autopilot“) Problem Ist das Problem gelöst? Wende gespeicherte Wenn- dann-Regel an Gibt es ein Muster? Analysiere die abstrakten Beziehungen zwischen Struktur und Funktion Leite Diagnose ab und formuliere Korrekturmassnahmen ja nein nein nein Interrupt Handlungsmodell von Rasmussen und Reason affektive und kognitive Ablenkungs- kräfte
  9. 9. Erläuterung • Handlungen vor allem auf den unteren Ebene • Diese sind billig und schnell • Jede Ebene hat ihre typischen Verhaltensmuster • Menschen, wenn sie die Wahl haben, verhalten sich bevorzugt wie kontextspezifische Mustererkenner, statt dass sie versuchen hochzurechnen oder zu optimieren“ (W.B. Rouse, 1981)
  10. 10. Fehlerkategorien nach J. Reason Patzer (Aufmerk- samkeit) Schnitzer (Gedächtnis) Regel- basierte Fehler (Verhaltens- routinen) Wissens- basierte Fehler (Wissen und Problem- lösungs- strategien) Regel- über- tretungen Motivationaler Bereich BeabsichtigtesHandeln UnbeabsichtigtestHandeln J. Reason, Human Error. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge 1990 „Die wissensbasierte Ebene kommt bei neuartigen Situationen ins Spiel, in denen Handlungen unter Verwendung analytischer Prozesse und gespeichertem Wissen geplant werden“ (Reason)
  11. 11. Zwei Fehler der regelbasierten Ebene Menschen neigen in unsicheren und chaotischen Situationen, wie sie Projekten gemein sind, auf die regelbasierte Ebene zurück zu fallen. Dort gibt es zwei fatale Verhaltensweise: • Thematisches Vagabundieren: Wenn Du einsiehst, dass Du nicht fähig bist, das Problem zu lösen, dann widme Dich einem anderen Thema • Reduktive Hypothesenbildung: Wenn die Situation unübersichtlich und unbestimmt ist, dann suche einen einfachen, zentralen Grund für die Probleme und reduziere alles auf diesen
  12. 12. • Probleme mit der Kausalität: – Laundry List Thinking – Positive vs. negative Rückkopplungen – Unterschätzung der Neben- und Fernwirkungen • Probleme mit der Komplexität – Unterschätzung von Kontingenzen – Schwierigkeiten mit Zeitstrukturen und Verzögerungen – Unzureichende Berücksichtigung nichtlinearer Zeitverläufe Zwei Fehlerkomplexe auf der wissensbasierten Ebene * ° + + * ° + − * ° − − a b c d e
  13. 13. Umgang mit Zeitstrukturen 154 BWL-Studenten. Nach Ossimitz, 2003 • Wann reisten am meisten Gäste ab? (95%) • Wann nahm die Anzahl der Gäste zu? (21%) • Wann waren am meisten Gäste im Hotel? (19%)
  14. 14. Umgang mit Verzögerungen 1. und 3. Ordnung 1000 „Output“„Input“ „Output“ 1000 Körner in Gruppe Tauben werfen 1000 „Input“ 1000 Briefe nach USA 10 Tage
  15. 15. Neben- und Fernwirkungen individuelle Kundenwünsche + Individualisierung der Gesellschaft Differenz zwischen Kundenwünschen und Angebotseigenschaften - B4 Nachfragesteigernde Massnahmen net income Nachfrage Verkäufe A1 Produktion Kosten Preis Attraktiviät des Angebotes - B2 Qualität - B3 wahrgenommener Kundennutzen Preis - Ressourcen A6 Angebotseigenschaften - Massnahmen zur Anpassung des Angebots an die Kundenwünsche Mut zur Veraenderung Preisstrategie B7 Marktpreis Differenz Marktpreis und Preis Kostensenkung smassnahmen - - B5
  16. 16. Knowledge Based System Cognition Voraussetzungen: • Kenntnisse der systemischen Muster • Einbezug eines systemischen post-mortem Abbilds der abgeschlossenen Projekte in die Risikoanalyse des neuen Projekts KBSC ist die laufende systematische Analyse des aktuellen Projektsystems mit dem Ziel, Turbulenzen zu minimieren durch die Bewusstmachung der systemtheoretischen Muster
  17. 17. Roll-out • Level I: 2-3 tägige interaktive Einführung in systemisches Projektmanagement • Level IIa: Lessons Learned in aktuellen Projekten. Einige einzelne Tagesworkshops während z.B. einem halben Jahr mit jeweils mehreren Projektmanager • Level IIb: Begleitung einzelner Projekte in Projekt-, Tall Gate und Risikomanagement-Meetings mit Hinweisen auf spezielle Aspekte des Komplexitätsmanagement • Level III: Coaching des Komplexitätsmanagementprozesses einzelner Projektmanager Komplexitätsmanagement findet auf der wissensbasierten Ebene statt. Es basiert auf Wissen und nicht auf Methoden und Regeln.

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