Make sure your
is not just a bunch of hype:)… here’s how!
Minimum Viable Hypothesis Formation Workshop
Say HY to hypothesis
And BYe to buying outputs over outcomes
1. State your hypothesis
2. Test your hypothesis
3. Learn from your hypothesis
4. State your next hypothesis (this is the educated
part of the educated guess)
5. Test your new hypothesis
6. Learn from your new hypothesis
7. State your NEXT hypothesis
8. Test your NEXT hypothesis
9. Learn From your NEXT hypothesis
10. Repeat FOREVER and change the world
1) I believe, we think,
we predict, we
Can one word change a culture? No… but make sure your
hypothesis starts with uncertainty… this makes it safe to fail learn.
This is your BINGO free space... it is the same every time. Literally
start by writing these words...
Let’s try it together… (ten minutes
before Gabe Karp gets up here!)
1. http://bit.ly/hypothesesinthed #LeanLabsDetroit
2. Your human must be super specific!
3. Your # must be 2, 20, 200 or 2,000
4. Your date must be 2 days, weeks or 2 months
5. Once you have the following…. I believe 200 of this person will do THIS within
2 weeks because (or some derivation thereof) facilitators will help you with the
two bold variables. Share it on our Trello board or on Twitter or stick it on the
wall (if we are allowed… it’s art right?)
● No alignment across the equation
● Not risky enough - too easy
● Not testing what you think you are testing “free beer effect”
● Action is vague
● You forgot a date (can never fail)
● You included a date (and it was too long/slow)
Don’t be George Costanza...
● Russell: Well, why am I watching it?
● George: Because it's on TV.
● Russell: (pausing) Not yet.
I BELIEVE (risk, uncertainty) [APPENDIX]
THESE HUMANS [APPENDIX]
● Design thinking
● Head Size segmentation
WILL DO (risk, uncertainty) [APPENDIX]
If validated learnings are the FRUIT of
#leanstartup, hypotheses are the seeds.
It’s the DNA.
Validated learnings from your last
experiment are the educated part of the
educated guess in your next hypothesis