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Creating hypotheses in the d

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Step by step formula for creating a leanstartup hypothesis - First presented at #leanlabsdetroit

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Creating hypotheses in the d

  1. 1. I think, Therefore I
  2. 2. TEST MY HYPOTHESIS:)
  3. 3. Make sure your hypothesis... is not just a bunch of hype:)… here’s how! Minimum Viable Hypothesis Formation Workshop @adamberk @leanplc
  4. 4. Say HY to hypothesis driven decision making... And BYe to buying outputs over outcomes
  5. 5. 1. State your hypothesis 2. Test your hypothesis 3. Learn from your hypothesis 4. State your next hypothesis (this is the educated part of the educated guess) 5. Test your new hypothesis 6. Learn from your new hypothesis 7. State your NEXT hypothesis 8. Test your NEXT hypothesis 9. Learn From your NEXT hypothesis 10. Repeat FOREVER and change the world
  6. 6. Transparency. Accountability. SPEED. Focus.
  7. 7. 1) I believe, we think, we predict, we assume... Can one word change a culture? No… but make sure your hypothesis starts with uncertainty… this makes it safe to fail learn. This is your BINGO free space... it is the same every time. Literally start by writing these words...
  8. 8. 2) these people...
  9. 9. 3) Will take this action...
  10. 10. 4a + 4b) With this velocity /resource vector... #########
  11. 11. 5) BECAUSE!!!
  12. 12. I believe that 20+ of you will create a testable hypothesis within 10 (using zero dollars) minutes because… the presentation is clear + because you want a mentor to help you run the experiment
  13. 13. We think that if we add extra snap in the hot dog casing, sales will increase by 20% within 2 months.
  14. 14. When you and your team “ship” a hypothesis
  15. 15. Let’s try it together… (ten minutes before Gabe Karp gets up here!) 1. http://bit.ly/hypothesesinthed #LeanLabsDetroit 2. Your human must be super specific! 3. Your # must be 2, 20, 200 or 2,000 4. Your date must be 2 days, weeks or 2 months 5. Once you have the following…. I believe 200 of this person will do THIS within 2 weeks because (or some derivation thereof) facilitators will help you with the two bold variables. Share it on our Trello board or on Twitter or stick it on the wall (if we are allowed… it’s art right?)
  16. 16. APPENDIX
  17. 17. Common mistakes... ● No alignment across the equation ● Not risky enough - too easy ● Not testing what you think you are testing “free beer effect” ● Action is vague ● You forgot a date (can never fail) ● You included a date (and it was too long/slow)
  18. 18. Don’t be George Costanza... ● Russell: Well, why am I watching it? ● George: Because it's on TV. ● Russell: (pausing) Not yet. ● https://youtu.be/ofOSlsNz5I8?t=1m35s
  19. 19. HYPOTHESIS ITSELF [APPENDIX] ● http://firstround.com/review/to-build-great-products-build-this-strong-scalable-system-first/ ● https://barryoreilly.com/2013/10/21/how-to-implement-hypothesis-driven-development/
  20. 20. I BELIEVE (risk, uncertainty) [APPENDIX] ● https://barryoreilly.com/2013/10/21/how-to-implement-hypothesis-driven-development/
  21. 21. THESE HUMANS [APPENDIX] ● Custdev ● Design thinking ● Head Size segmentation
  22. 22. WILL DO (risk, uncertainty) [APPENDIX] ● https://barryoreilly.com/2013/10/21/how-to-implement-hypothesis-driven-development/
  23. 23. If validated learnings are the FRUIT of #leanstartup, hypotheses are the seeds. It’s the DNA. Validated learnings from your last experiment are the educated part of the educated guess in your next hypothesis
  24. 24. MATCHING 1. BELIEF 2. HUMAN 3. ACTION 4. VECTOR 5. EXPLANATION ● MVP ● RISKIEST ASSUMPTION ● CUSTDEV ● DESIGN THINKING ● EXPERIMENT ● INNOVATION ACCOUNTING ● PERSONA ● EARLY ADOPTER ●

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