Spectrum 2020. Presentation by Andrew Kerans, Executive Manager, Spectrum Infrastructure Branch, ACMA


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Radcomms 2011 - Andrew Kearns.

"Spectrum 2020"

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  • Mobile traffic growth slide 1:Exponential increase in mobile broadband traffic as predicted by many industry pundits showing nearly a 500 fold increase in 13 years.This is based on the Ericsson prediction extrapolated to 2020 and normalised to 2007.IF technology and infrastructure do not improve, a similar exponential demand for mobile spectrum will result.
  • Mobile traffic growth slide 2:Highlighting 2007 and 2014
  • Mobile traffic growth slide 3:Highlighting 2020
  • Mobile traffic growth slide 4:Mobile data growth from an individual’s point of view.The predictions of exponential growth in mobile data demand, and by association an exponential growth in mobile data spectrum demand, can be hard to comprehend.By thinking about a single user the predictions start to make sense.For example: 2 years ago I had a GSM phone on a plan that provided 60 MB per year and it was more than enough. Now I have a smart phone and a plan that provides 3 GB of data per month and every byte is used. That’s 36 GB per year, or a 600 fold increase in two years.I wish my super grew that fast.
  • Methods of traffic abatement slide 1:It is unlikely that any country will be able to allocate 500 times more spectrum for mobile. Take Australia for example, in 2007 there was 380 MHz allocated for mobile spectrum, a 500 fold increase means that Australia will need to allocate an additional 190 GHz of spectrum for mobile. That’s approximately 1500 digital dividends for those playing along at home! This is clearly an unsustainable situation.Fortunately the exponential growth in mobile data can be offset by improvements in technology and infrastructure (next slide).Technological improvements include advancements in modulation schemes (GMSK, CDMA, wide CDMA, OFDMA), addition of MIMO at base stations and UE, significant increases in the processing power and on board memory in UE, and ability to use increased bandwidth in UE.
  • Methods of traffic abatement slide 2:Increasing infrastructure, i.e. a greater number of smaller cells.Smaller cells, smaller power. Smaller power, less interference. Less interference, greater frequency reuse.
  • Spectrum prediction 1 – overall graph
  • Spectrum prediction 2 – highlighting 2007 and 2014
  • Spectrum prediction 3 – highlighting the peak about 2018
  • Spectrum prediction 4 – highlighting the 2020
  • Data offload: slide 1.Normal situation, cell phone outside, communicating with macro base station that covers a suburban area.
  • Data offload: slide 2.Now the cell phone has moved inside a house but it is still communicating with the macro base station.
  • Data offload: slide 3.Now the cell phone is inside a house but it is communicating with a Data Offload Device (femto cell, wi-fi, UWB), that is connected to the NBN fibre.
  • Data offload: slide 4 (lots of notes)What other devices can leverage fibre connectivity using a data offload device?In the home:Computers,Television – subscription and IP TV services,Game consoles,Audio broadcasting – IP “radio”Not shown in this scene but becoming more important in the future as Smart Grids and smart infrastructure take off:Hot water service,Fridge,HVAC,Electric car charging,Alternative energy re-sale (selling excess back to the grid)and many others.What are the spectral implications of these home networks?What tech will be used?Where will the spectrum come from?
  • Extract from ARSP 2009 chartIt is expected any extra spectrum needed for DoDs will be found between 3.8 and 30 GHz.The ACMA is asking industry and academia how much spectrum will be needed for data offload and where should it come from?
  • Cog-radio is still being studied…
  • Map showing maximum contiguous white space channels post restack
  • Zoomed in version of pervious slide showing TV white space is not going to be that useful in dense urban areas like Sydney.
  • Splat taken from “Earth Station Siting Policy” paper.Splat shows spectrum denial from ABC C-Band Rx at Ultimo.
  • Example of a suitable area for a C-Band earth station.This is near Quirindi NSW. Blue line is a fixed link.
  • Spectrum 2020. Presentation by Andrew Kerans, Executive Manager, Spectrum Infrastructure Branch, ACMA

    1. 1. Spectrum 2020<br />Dr. Andrew Kerans<br />Executive Manager<br />Spectrum Planning Branch<br />
    2. 2. Overview.<br />Broadband demand.<br />Efficiency offsets.<br />Spectrum demand.<br />The evolving user.<br />WiFi congestion.<br />Spectrum from where?<br />Cognitive radio.<br />Whitespace; are there any opportunities?<br />A wide brown land (horses for courses).<br />
    3. 3. Mobile data traffic growth<br />
    4. 4. Consumer demand expected to plateau, however M2M expected to climb resulting in overall exponential growth.<br />
    5. 5. Mobile data traffic growth<br />
    6. 6. Mobile data traffic growth<br />
    7. 7. Mobile data traffic growth<br />
    8. 8. Methods of traffic abatement<br />New technologies<br /><ul><li>1995. 1 bit/Hz
    9. 9. 2000. 5 bits/Hz
    10. 10. 2005. 10 bits/Hz
    11. 11. 2010. 15 bits/Hz
    12. 12. 2020. 20 bits/Hz??</li></ul>Technologies such as MIMO may deliver up to 50 bits/Hz. That’s 500 Mbit for a 10 MHz Channel!!!!<br />So where is the Shannon limit????<br />
    13. 13. Methods of traffic abatement<br />Increased infrastructure — greater number of smaller cells.<br />Not acceptable to trade spectrum for infrastructure $$ while legacy equipment still operates.<br />ACMA will consider incumbents before re-farming spectrum.<br />
    14. 14. Effects of traffic abatement on mobile spectrum demand<br />
    15. 15. Effects of traffic abatement on mobile spectrum demand<br />
    16. 16. Effects of traffic abatement on mobile spectrum demand<br />
    17. 17. Effects of traffic abatement on mobile spectrum demand<br />
    18. 18. Mobile devices outside<br />
    19. 19. Mobile device inside<br />
    20. 20. Data offload<br />
    21. 21. Data offload<br />
    22. 22. Congestion!!<br />The problems begin at about 39:50 into the keynote speech at World Wide Developers Conference , when Jobs tries to connect to the New York Times Web site from the iPhone. Jobs gives an audible sniff of disgust (40:03) when the page doesn’t load, saying “our networks in here are always unpredictable, so… no idea what we’re going to find,” then “they are slow today.”40:20 “you know you can help me out if you’re on WiFi, if you’d just get off… I’d appreciate it” (laughs). Then he finally gave up, saying “I have a problem and I’m not going to be able to show you much today.” He then punted to show photos from the camera roll – which doesn’t require a network connection.<br />it was the overwhelming number of portable WiFi access points competing for airspace that caused the problems.  According to InfoWorld’s consultation with an Apple engineer at the event, over 500 networks were in operation at the same time.<br />Do we need to allocate more spectrum??<br />60 GHz???? <br />Project IEEE 802.11ad Very High Throughput in 60 GHz<br />
    23. 23. Spectrum for data offload devices<br />Where will it come from?<br />The ACMA is asking this question.<br />
    24. 24. Cognitive radioACMA engineers continue to look at the issues and contribute to international debate.<br />
    25. 25. Whitespace????Maximum contiguous white space channels post restack<br />
    26. 26. Maximum contiguous white space channels post restack: Sydney Basin<br />
    27. 27. Earth Stations<br />
    28. 28. Spectrum denial from C-Band receiver<br />
    29. 29. Earth station siting<br />
    30. 30. Questions?<br />