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Sustaining Peace
Negotiation and the Dynamical Negotiation
Network Model
systems, applications, interventions
Łukasz Joche...
Instead of introduction
●
Who am I?
– Psychologist University of Warsaw→
– Trained in complex systems
– Trained in negotia...
Introductory questions
●
Negotiations
– Negotiation training
– Negotiation practice (eg negotiating pocket money with
pare...
Complicated vs complex
Fractal geometry
Workshop Plan
●
About the Dynamical Negotiation Networks
model
●
Exercise Build your own network→
●
What can we infer from...
Shared
reality
Negotiation communication←
Dynamical Negotiation Network
(Jochemczyk & Nowak, 2010)
●
Negotiation process in which parties are constructing→
a networ...
9
Product
quality
Seller's
pressures
Elements:
●
Parties' representation „Pressures”→
●
Facts / Objects Nodes→
●
Relations...
Interactions in the network
Price
Product
quality
Good
reason
NCAA
quality
Playing in
the USA
Player's
quality
Player's
age
Player's
experience
President's
pressures
Agent's
pressures
...
Playing
professionally
President's
pressures
Agent's
pressures
Player's
quality
Player's
age
Player's
experience
Playing i...
Network structure
●
Sources Out-degree←
●
Sinks In-degree←
●
Bridges In-betweenness←
●
Direct influence link to outcome←
–...
Exercise
1) Read carefully
2) Highlight nodes in the text of the
conversation
3) Write down names of the nodes on the post...
Analysis
●
Which nodes / links are crucial for the
outcome in your network?
●
What to add / change in the network?
●
What ...
The network – my interpretation
How to improve negotiate
negotiation?
●
Start early
●
Use your “Sources”
●
Build good “Bridge(s)”
●
Instead of fighting fo...
1 2 3 4 5
Negotiation stage
Meanfinalvaluesofout-degree
oftheintroducednodes
2,5
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
Introduction of key eleme...
1 2 3 4 5
Negotiation stage
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
Meanfinalvaluesofin-degreeof
theintroducednodes
Introduction of key elemen...
Introduction of key elements Betweenness
1 2 3 4 5
Negotiation stage
5,0E-4
1,0E-3
1,5E-3
2,0E-3
2,5E-3
Meanfinalvaluesofi...
1 2 3 4 5
Negotiation stage
0,010
0,015
0,020
0,025
0,030
0,035
0,040
Meanfinalvaluesofout-closeness
oftheintroducednodes
...
In-Closeness
1 2 3 4 5
Negotiation Stage
0,022
0,023
0,024
0,025
0,026
0,027
0,028
0,029MeanFinalIn-Closeness
1 2 3 4 5
Negotiation stage
10
20
30
40
50
Numberofintroducednewnodes
Initial disagreement
Low
High
Network construction d...
Network construction dynamics - Links
1 2 3 4 5
20
30
40
50
60
Numberointroducednewlinks
Initial disagreement
Low
High
Neg...
Negotiators' High vs Low rigidity
←Low rigidity
High rigidity →
Network density in time
1 2 3 4 5
1,10
1,15
1,20
1,25
1,30
1,35
1,40
Initial conflict
Low
High
Meanin/out–degree
Negotiati...
High Variability Nodes (HVN)
●
Increase both their in-degree and out-
degree throughout the whole
negotiation.
●
The more ...
28
HVN Out-Degree→
Number of changes of Out-Degree in stages following an introduction
115
13
2 1 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
...
29
HVN In–Degree→
121
11
0 1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 1 2 3
Number of changes
Numberofnodesthatchange
givennumberoftime...
Network extraction process
1)Competent judges
●
Stages:
1)Identifying nodes
●
Combining nodes between the judges (Rule “2 ...
Conclusions
What can we get from DNN model?
●
See where is the conflict
●
Disentangle the conflict
●
Provide on which elem...
33
Readings
●
Jochemczyk, L. W., & Nowak, A. (2010).
Constructing a Network of Shared
Agreement: A Model of Communication
...
34
Questions / Discussion
Lukasz Jochemczyk
LWJ@psych.uw.edu.pl
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Negotiation and the dynamical negotiation network model Jochemczyk_Lukasz

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At Columbia University's Sustaining Peace Conference Lukasz Jochemczyk of the University of Warsaw presented the Dynamical Negotiation Network model, a new way to explore how to think about and construct negotiation talk, particularly for difficult conflicts. The purpose of negotiation is to achieve a joint decision. When people negotiate, they create a shared representation of the problem. This representation serves as a foundation for developing a joint decision through the negotiation process. In this workshop, Lukasz will show how the quality of the shared representation of the problem relates to the outcome of negotiation. The workshop will also explore ways to achieve a better outcome.

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Negotiation and the dynamical negotiation network model Jochemczyk_Lukasz

  1. 1. Sustaining Peace Negotiation and the Dynamical Negotiation Network Model systems, applications, interventions Łukasz Jochemczyk This project was funded in the framework of the Polish National Science Center grant No. 2011/01/D/HS6/02264
  2. 2. Instead of introduction ● Who am I? – Psychologist University of Warsaw→ – Trained in complex systems – Trained in negotiation and mediation – Research on Negotiation, Conflict, NIMBY, Social Dilemmas, Risk, Time Perspectives ... ● Why I am here? – Understanding communication in negotiation ● Communication result→ ● Procedural / Distributive satisfaction ● What I bring with me? – Dynamical Negotiation Networks (Jochemczyk & Nowak, 2010)
  3. 3. Introductory questions ● Negotiations – Negotiation training – Negotiation practice (eg negotiating pocket money with parents) – What does it mean to win in negotiation ● Win-win ● Sustainable solution ● Complex systems – Complicated vs complex ● Networks – Structure (in-degree, out-degree, betweenness, closeness) ● Fractal geometry
  4. 4. Complicated vs complex
  5. 5. Fractal geometry
  6. 6. Workshop Plan ● About the Dynamical Negotiation Networks model ● Exercise Build your own network→ ● What can we infer from the model ● Summary
  7. 7. Shared reality Negotiation communication←
  8. 8. Dynamical Negotiation Network (Jochemczyk & Nowak, 2010) ● Negotiation process in which parties are constructing→ a network – shared representation of a problem ● The network is gradually constructed during the negotiation process – Nodes objects / arguments→ – Links relations between objects / arguments→ ● Changes in one part changes in other parts→ ● The outcome depends on: – Dynamics of the network construction – Changes in the network – Structure of the network
  9. 9. 9 Product quality Seller's pressures Elements: ● Parties' representation „Pressures”→ ● Facts / Objects Nodes→ ● Relations links→ + –
  10. 10. Interactions in the network Price Product quality Good reason
  11. 11. NCAA quality Playing in the USA Player's quality Player's age Player's experience President's pressures Agent's pressures Example – Negotiation of a basketball player's contract
  12. 12. Playing professionally President's pressures Agent's pressures Player's quality Player's age Player's experience Playing in the USA NCAA quality Club quality Experience in the 1'st league Players' experience Quality of the sporting facilities Foreign players in the club Player's pay190 Player’s 'foreignness’ Player’s development possibilities 150120 Competitive offer Sponsor Average league player’s pay 180170
  13. 13. Network structure ● Sources Out-degree← ● Sinks In-degree← ● Bridges In-betweenness← ● Direct influence link to outcome← – Sponsor ● Feedback loop – Player's quality Player's development→ possibilities” In degreeOut degree Price Betweenness In degree Out degree Source Source Sink Sink Bridge
  14. 14. Exercise 1) Read carefully 2) Highlight nodes in the text of the conversation 3) Write down names of the nodes on the post-its 4) Try to play with them arrange them in a→ network according to your understanding of the conversation 1) If you are not satisfied with current arrangement → 1)Discuss it 2)Try to rearrange it again Think what is the cause and what is the result (which node influences and which node is influenced)
  15. 15. Analysis ● Which nodes / links are crucial for the outcome in your network? ● What to add / change in the network? ● What could be done if you are stuck?
  16. 16. The network – my interpretation
  17. 17. How to improve negotiate negotiation? ● Start early ● Use your “Sources” ● Build good “Bridge(s)” ● Instead of fighting for “Sinks” discuss consequences ● Use the whole network throughout the negotiation
  18. 18. 1 2 3 4 5 Negotiation stage Meanfinalvaluesofout-degree oftheintroducednodes 2,5 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 Introduction of key elements Out-degree time
  19. 19. 1 2 3 4 5 Negotiation stage 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 Meanfinalvaluesofin-degreeof theintroducednodes Introduction of key elements In – degree time
  20. 20. Introduction of key elements Betweenness 1 2 3 4 5 Negotiation stage 5,0E-4 1,0E-3 1,5E-3 2,0E-3 2,5E-3 Meanfinalvaluesofin-betweenness oftheintroducednodes time
  21. 21. 1 2 3 4 5 Negotiation stage 0,010 0,015 0,020 0,025 0,030 0,035 0,040 Meanfinalvaluesofout-closeness oftheintroducednodes Distance from the network center: Out-Closeness time
  22. 22. In-Closeness 1 2 3 4 5 Negotiation Stage 0,022 0,023 0,024 0,025 0,026 0,027 0,028 0,029MeanFinalIn-Closeness
  23. 23. 1 2 3 4 5 Negotiation stage 10 20 30 40 50 Numberofintroducednewnodes Initial disagreement Low High Network construction dynamics - Nodes
  24. 24. Network construction dynamics - Links 1 2 3 4 5 20 30 40 50 60 Numberointroducednewlinks Initial disagreement Low High Negotiation stage
  25. 25. Negotiators' High vs Low rigidity ←Low rigidity High rigidity →
  26. 26. Network density in time 1 2 3 4 5 1,10 1,15 1,20 1,25 1,30 1,35 1,40 Initial conflict Low High Meanin/out–degree Negotiation stage
  27. 27. High Variability Nodes (HVN) ● Increase both their in-degree and out- degree throughout the whole negotiation. ● The more HVN in negotiation the better result (both win-win & sustainable)
  28. 28. 28 HVN Out-Degree→ Number of changes of Out-Degree in stages following an introduction 115 13 2 1 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 1 2 3 4 Number of changes Numberofnodesthatchange agivennumberoftimes
  29. 29. 29 HVN In–Degree→ 121 11 0 1 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 1 2 3 Number of changes Numberofnodesthatchange givennumberoftimesNumber of changes of In-Degree in stages following an introduction
  30. 30. Network extraction process 1)Competent judges ● Stages: 1)Identifying nodes ● Combining nodes between the judges (Rule “2 of 3”) 2)Naming nodes 3)Identifying connections & indicating node values ● Combining connections between the judges (Rule “2 of 3”) 4)Indicating connection strengths ● Designated computer program (available around this summer) 2) Do it on your own ● Designated computer program (expected this fall)
  31. 31. Conclusions What can we get from DNN model? ● See where is the conflict ● Disentangle the conflict ● Provide on which elements focus the communication in order to negotiate constructively ● What to do in order to reach win-win solution
  32. 32. 33 Readings ● Jochemczyk, L. W., & Nowak, A. (2010). Constructing a Network of Shared Agreement: A Model of Communication Processes in Negotiations. Group Decision and Negotiation, 19(6), 591–620. doi:10.1007/s10726-009-9165-y ● Jochemczyk, L. W., Pietrzak, J., Zawadzka, A. (in review). Finding Common Ground: Dynamical Negotiation Networks.
  33. 33. 34 Questions / Discussion
  34. 34. Lukasz Jochemczyk LWJ@psych.uw.edu.pl

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