UCLA Luskin Center - PEV Infrastructure. Presentation given by JR DeShazo, Director UCLA Luskin Center on October 26th, 2011 at the E-Mobility Symposium organized by the German State of Baden-Wuerttemberg at the W-Hotel in Los Angeles.
W Hotel (Westwood)|Los Angeles October 26, 2011
Projected PEV Base in Los Angeles: 2000-2020 800,000 700,000 600,000Installed Base 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2018 2019 2020 2003 2005 2010 2015 2017 BEV Cumulative PHEV Cumulative Hybrid Cumulative Source: Jeffrey Dubin, et.al., UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.
Market Analysis PEVs projected to be 9% of new car sales in 2015, and 11.7% in 2020 Based on demographic and conjoint survey of 2,072 LA residents in 2010-2011.Source: Jeffrey Dubin, et.al., UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.
PEV Charging & Multifamily Dwellings Residential Parking a problem for Early Adopters “How much of a problem would it be if there were no EV chargers in your building?” Would prevent from buying an EV: 42% Serious problem, but could work: 27%Source: Jeffrey Dubin, et.al., UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.
PEV Charging & Multifamily Dwellings Unlocking Multifamily Dwelling Charging = Unlocking the Market Other, 0.7%Los Angeles Housing Stock (2009) Single Family, 46% Multifamily, 51% Duplex, 3%Source: David Peterson, UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.
PEV Charging & Multifamily Dwellings LA Green Building Code mandates new construction to install EVSE electrical conduits in low rise multifamily. LAGBC mandates designated PEV spaces for new high-rise constructionSource: City of Los Angeles Green Building Code, 2010.
PEV Charging & Multifamily Dwellings New residential construction is too slow to meet demand SR solutions? PHEVs & Extended range vehicles Workplace and publicly-accessible charging What are actual installation costs in overlapping areas of high nighttime demand and high concentrations of multifamily? What role can public policy play to expedite installations?
Siting & Managing Public Charging Workplace,Commercial and other Publicly-accessible charging addresses key need for niche markets: PEV drivers without residential charging PEVs with small batteries wanting to charge “opportunistically” Reducing range anxiety Whereshould they go, and how should they be managed?
Siting & Managing Public Charging Many siting methodologies exist: #1: Ad-hoc #2 Informed Estimating demand, identifying low cost supply sites, and matching supply and demand gives cities the power to: Leverage private investment Know where to upgrade old infrastructure Informs electric utility where to expect demand Plan for integration with transportation demand strategies (e.g., parking pricing)
Concentrations of Nighttime PEV Charging 2020Source: Jeffrey Dubin, et.al., UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011.
Siting & Managing Public Charging First Generation Charging Stations (07.2011) • Appx 35% of U.S. Gen 1 1000 charging stations are in 800 LA CountyEVSE (units) 600 312 • Most are 220-240 Volts 400 • Opportunity for low-cost 484 200 refurbishment 0 2 3 • Need to strategically target sites Public EVSE 1.0 L1 Public EVSE 1.0 L2 U.S. (ex-CA) CA (ex-LA County) LA County EV Charging Station Locations by Land Use Category (07.2011)• Over 50% of publicly-accessible Gen 1 Miscellaneous 1 charging stations on commercial Recreational 4 property. Industrial 6• Opportunity to leverage private Institutional 7 Government Owned Property 32 investment. Commercial 59 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Source: Peterson & Goepel, UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation, 2011. Number of Locations
Conclusion Need to responsibly site and manage infrastructure to avoid wasteful spending and costly decommissioning of stranded assets Public sector can have a hand in guiding this process Innovative solutions need to emerge for multi-unit dwellings Need for greater sharing of best practices across California and U.S.
www.luskin.ucla.edu J.R. DeShazo, Director 310.593.1198 firstname.lastname@example.org David Peterson, PEV Project Manager 650.477.4883 email@example.com