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BREXIT and Beyond: How UK can upset the global economy

This was for the Grand Rapids, MI Economics Club

In a vote that shocked the world, the UK voted to exit the European Union and disrupted the trend towards global integration. Quickly, these dominoes fell: UK PM David Cameron resigned, global stock markets swooned, and UK real estate prices fell the most in 7 years.
Will this continue? When will Article 50 be triggered and will Prime Minister Theresa May be forced into a "hard Brexit"? Will other countries vote to the leave the EU? How will this impact the US and the global economy?
As a realistic optimist, Andy sees potential good solutions coming out of bad situations. By using a combination of humor, anecdotes and stories, he engages audiences and helps them understand the big picture on the mash-up of business, politics and economics. As a journalist, author and researcher, Andy Busch draws on 30 years of experience to give your audience the tools they need to understand the political economy and political events like Brexit.
BTW, here's an article he wrote just after the vote occurred:
http://www.andrewbusch.com/2016/06/28/brexit-what-happened-and-how-it-will-impact-your-business/2017

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BREXIT and Beyond: How UK can upset the global economy

  1. 1. www.andrewbusch.com Brexit and Beyond How UK Can Upset the Global Economy
  2. 2. www.andrewbusch.com Problems and Solutions US, UK & Michigan Economic Situation BREXIT: vote, outcome, adventure 2016 Elections
  3. 3. www.andrewbusch.com
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  6. 6. www.andrewbusch.com 2.9% 0.5% 0.7%
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  8. 8. www.andrewbusch.com 17%
  9. 9. www.andrewbusch.com #13
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  11. 11. www.andrewbusch.com "We are not only each other's largest investors in each of our countries, one to the other, but the fact is that every day almost one million people go to work in America for British companies that are in the United States, just as more than one million people go to work here in Great Britain for American companies that are here. So we are enormously tied together, obviously. And we are committed to making both the U.S.-UK and the U.S.-EU relationships even stronger drivers of our prosperity." US Secretary of State John Kerry
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  13. 13. www.andrewbusch.com 4.9%
  14. 14. www.andrewbusch.com +5.4K
  15. 15. www.andrewbusch.com
  16. 16. www.andrewbusch.com +0.2% +0.6%
  17. 17. www.andrewbusch.com Quiz Time!
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  20. 20. www.andrewbusch.com Productivity=Growth
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  23. 23. www.andrewbusch.com “There are limits to what monetary policy can and, indeed, should, do. The burden must also fall on fiscal and other policies to do their part to help create conditions conducive to economic stability.” SF Fed President John Williams
  24. 24. www.andrewbusch.com US, UK, MI emoji summary
  25. 25. www.andrewbusch.com Biggest breakup since?
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  29. 29. www.andrewbusch.com Polls
  30. 30. www.andrewbusch.com GBPUSD 20%
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  35. 35. www.andrewbusch.com “The UK would not be a big enough market to be a priority for us in that case[Brexit]. As a drugs market it is more important for us to launch in France, Germany and Sweden than in the UK because they adopt and pay for the drugs... The UK is a challenge now but without the EU [it] will get left behind…” AstraZeneca’s Mene Pangalos
  36. 36. www.andrewbusch.com
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  38. 38. www.andrewbusch.com Abbot AbbVie Baxter International Beam Suntory Caterpillar CDW CF Industries Mondelez International Navigant Northern Trust Tenneco W.W. Grainger Walgreens Boots Alliance
  39. 39. www.andrewbusch.com 'I think, as I was saying to you a little earlier, that one of the issues is that a lot of people will invest here in the UK because it is the UK in Europe. If we were not in Europe, I think there would be firms and companies who would be looking to say, do they need to develop a mainland Europe presence rather than a UK presence? So I think there are definite benefits for us in economic terms.' PM Theresa May 1mth b4 vote
  40. 40. www.andrewbusch.com PM Theresa May 4mths after vote "There will be no unnecessary delays in invoking Article 50. We will invoke it when we are ready. And we will be ready soon. We will invoke Article 50 no later than the end of March next year. It is not up to the House of Commons to invoke Article 50, and it is not up to the House of Lords. It is up to the government to trigger Article 50 and the government alone.”
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  44. 44. www.andrewbusch.com Brexit emoji summary
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  47. 47. www.andrewbusch.com Policy solutions for growth Free Trade=lower tariffs Reg. Relief=reduced costs Tax reform=capital formation w/incentives Infrastructure=efficiency Energy Production
  48. 48. www.andrewbusch.com Source: PIIE
  49. 49. www.andrewbusch.com 2016 Recap Clinton: biz tax hikes build on regs cap gains tax no free trade big alternatives big infra create pathway enhance D-F Trump: biz tax cuts reduce regs full expensing no free trade big hydro carbon big infra build a wall end D-F DJT HRC
  50. 50. www.andrewbusch.com What is the hope? Trump is a “businessman” Clinton is a “compromiser”
  51. 51. www.andrewbusch.com
  52. 52. www.andrewbusch.com New Key Election Developments
  53. 53. www.andrewbusch.com Policy solution emoji summary
  54. 54. www.andrewbusch.com Brexit takeaways Currency biggest loser 2016=trade Fed is done
  55. 55. www.andrewbusch.com Final Thoughts…

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