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Michigan Solar Market Potential
Abhilash “Abhi” Kantamneni| MichiganTechnological University
Houghton Winters
Source: Mining Journal
Source: Mining Gazette
Source: Michigan Tech Alumni
Source: Mining Journal
Source:...
OCREA
ALGERDELTA
UPPCO
PRESQUEISLE
WEPCO
GREATLAKES
DTEELECTRIC
ALPENAPOWER
CONSUMERS
TRI-COUNTY
CHERRYLAND
MIDWEST…
THUMB...
Average Residential Electricity Retail Rates
by State (2013)
State
Average Price
[$/kWh]
Hawaii $0.37
Houghton $0.21-$0.24...
MichiganTech KRC Photovoltaic Research Center
Location:Tree Cover and SolarWindow
Image Source: www.solarfeeds.com
Best Summer Angle: 30*
Best Winter Angle: 60*
Best Av...
Advantages of High Module Tilt: Albedo
Source: nsidc.org
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
...
Advantages of High Module Tilt: Snow Shedding
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1
107
213
319
425
531
637
743
849
955
1,061
1,167
...
Source: MTU KRC Data
Houghton Average = 3.8 Peak Sun Hours/Day*
Energy = 1kW*3.8h = 3.8kWh
Source: pveducation.org
*Source: MTU KRC Data
Source: pveducation.org
California Average = 6 Peak Sun Hours/Day*
Energy = 1kW*6h = 6kWh
Source: MTU KRC Data
Nov-Feb total irradiance =
only 8% year total
Source: Michigan Public Service Commission
Source: www.nrel.gov
Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
•6000 [kWh] (source)
Annual
Consumption :
•6000/365 = ~ 16.4 [kWh]
Daily
Consumption:...
Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
• Daily Consumption / (Sun Hours * Derate
Factor)= 16.4/(3.8*0.8) = 5.4 [kW]System Si...
Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
•Energy*Rates =
6000*0.21 = $1,260
Annual
Savings
•System Costs / Annual
Savings = 11...
Utility Fuel Source Summary
Fuel Source USA OCREA UPPCO Region
Coal 39.10% 63.80% 54.11% 59.43%
Nuclear 19.18% 23.10% 23.0...
Currently all MI utilities are on track to
meet RES Compliance*
Phased integration of renewables 50%
cheaper than new coal...
Benefits of Renewables
 Michigan Department of Energy, Labor & Economic Growth Report on
Green Jobs says renewable energy...
Actual Quote: “The only green that matters,
is the color of my $$$$$”
(Obviously, not a philosopher)
Simple ROI Calculation
Population
Aggregate
MW Solar
People
Per
Panel
Houghton 30,000 0.003 2,500
California 38,041,430 1892.05 5
Texas 26,059,20...
Factors Influencing Solar Adoption
 Early adopters motivated by environmental factors [Falers et al]
 If consumers canno...
Steps to Solar
 How much am I consuming?
 Reading your electricity bill
 Can I install?
 Energy Policy?
 How much sun...
Steps to Solar
 How much am I consuming?
 Reading your electricity bill
 Can I install?
 Energy Policy?
 How much sun...
http://solarizehoughton.org/resources/
2013
2014
2015
Solar Market Penetration in Houghton
2013:-
~30kW
Summer
2014:
60kW
added
Fall 2015:
+200kW
expected.
Large majority of installed net metered
customer generation is Solar.
Source: MPSCAnnual Net Metering Report 2014
Figure: ...
Source: National Renewable Energy Labs
*Figure: MIRECS 2009-2013 Credits by Energy
Source
OCREA
ALGERDELTA
UPPCO
PRESQUEISLE
WEPCO
GREATLAKES
DTEELECTRIC
ALPENAPOWER
CONSUMERS
TRI-COUNTY
CHERRYLAND
MIDWEST…
THUMB...
PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rate Increases
OCREA
ALGERDELTA
UPPCO
PRESQUEISLE
WEPCO
GREATLAKES
DTEELECTRIC
A...
PV Market Opportunity by Average Annual Consumption
MI Average: 8MWh/Year
OCREA
ALGERDELTA
UPPCO
PRESQUEISLE
WEPCO
GREATLA...
Utility Rank by rates
Rank by rate
Increase
Rank by Consumption Aggregate Rank
OCREA 1 1 1 1
ALGER DELTA 2 3 2 2
UPPCO 3 2...
Utility Rank by rates
Rank by rate
Increase
Rank by
Consumption
Aggregate Rank
Rank by % Net-
Generation
OCREA 1 1 1 1 1
A...
http://solar.maps.umn.edu/app/
LIDAR Mapping of Solar Potential
for the entire state of MN
Source: NREL Study
On solar soft costs
What happens when net-metering programs end?
MPSC SolarWorking Group:Value Of Solar? (VOS)
1. Expand current program till 50MW aggregate
2. Buy all, credit all
3. Buy ...
Source: CAISO
Source: EIA
(VOS):Value of Solar
VOS proposed by Michigan Utility DTE
(VOS):Value of Solar
VOS used in Minnesota
(VOS):Value of Solar
VOS used in Austin,Texas
Summary
 Michigan Net-Metering program largely untapped (only 94% un-utilized)
 High electric rates offer good value pro...
Contact Information
Abhilash Kantamneni
221 Rekhi Hall
Michigan Tech
1400 Townsend Drive
Houghton MI
akantamn@mtu.edu
@aka...
Bonus Slides!
Cabbages and Solar?
Cabbages and Solar?
 Sell Price: $0.21 each
 Buying Price: $0.03
each
Electric Utility Markets are a
“Zero-Sum Game”
Rates = $$Generation + $$Transmission +
$$Distribution + $$Administration +...
Working Group
Recommendations
Expand Net
Metering to state
wide 50MW
Credit on net
generation
Credit on
generation
Source:...
Organic cabbages?
 Healthier
 Locally grown
 No new roads
 No large farms
Storage: Generation Shifting
Credit: climatetechwiki.org
Storage: Load Shifting
Credit: Scientific American
Reliable, affordable and
sustainable energy for all
Goals:
Source: Solar Energy Industry Forecast: U.S. DOE
Public Awareness
Technological Maturity
Regulatory Action
Legislative Support
Market Drivers
How to Bring Change:
Homeboy Solar
Industries
• Increases
Sustainability
• Reduced Prison
Recidivism
• Saves taxpayer
money
Husky Pride! Solarize Houghton
Solar Market Penetration in Houghton
2013:-
~30kW
Summer
2014:
60kW
added
Fall 2015:
+200kW
expected.
Solarizing Houghton (Summer 2015)
Buying
Club
Workshop
Public
Seminars
DIY Kits
Source: MTU KRC Data
Nov-Feb total irradiance =
only 8% year total
Summer Production:
77 Sq. miles
Winter Production:
1,732 Sq. miles
GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan
GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan
GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan
GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan
GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan
GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan
GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan
GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan
GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan
GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan
GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan
GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan
GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan
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GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan

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Presentation at MREA Energy Fair 2015. High utility rates
create significant opportunities for residential PV in
Michigan. Understand everything you ever need
to know about going solar: from estimating the size
of a PV system for your location to calculating the
financial and environmental benefits of PV on your
home.

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GLREA Michigan Energy Fair 2015 - Solar and Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Michigan

  1. 1. Michigan Solar Market Potential Abhilash “Abhi” Kantamneni| MichiganTechnological University
  2. 2. Houghton Winters Source: Mining Journal Source: Mining Gazette Source: Michigan Tech Alumni Source: Mining Journal Source: boniashburn.com
  3. 3. OCREA ALGERDELTA UPPCO PRESQUEISLE WEPCO GREATLAKES DTEELECTRIC ALPENAPOWER CONSUMERS TRI-COUNTY CHERRYLAND MIDWEST… THUMB CLOVERLAND XCEL WPS AEP MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC RATES 2013 [$/KWH] MI Average: $0.14/kWh Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013
  4. 4. Average Residential Electricity Retail Rates by State (2013) State Average Price [$/kWh] Hawaii $0.37 Houghton $0.21-$0.24 New York $0.19 Alaska $0.19 Connecticut $0.18 Vermont $0.18 New Hampshire $0.17 California $0.16 New England $0.16 Middle Atlantic $0.16 Massachusetts $0.16 New Jersey $0.16 Michigan $0.15 Source: www.eia.gov
  5. 5. MichiganTech KRC Photovoltaic Research Center
  6. 6. Location:Tree Cover and SolarWindow Image Source: www.solarfeeds.com Best Summer Angle: 30* Best Winter Angle: 60* Best Average Angle: 47*
  7. 7. Advantages of High Module Tilt: Albedo Source: nsidc.org 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 229 241 253 265 277 289 301 313 325 337 349 361 W/m^2 Day of the Year Solar Irradiation and Albedo S_Horizontal (W/m^2) Albedo (W/m^2) Source: MTU KRC
  8. 8. Advantages of High Module Tilt: Snow Shedding 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1 107 213 319 425 531 637 743 849 955 1,061 1,167 1,273 1,379 1,485 1,591 1,697 1,803 1,909 2,015 2,121 2,227 2,333 2,439 2,545 2,651 2,757 2,863 2,969 3,075 3,181 3,287 3,393 3,499 3,605 3,711 3,817 EnergyProduced(Wh) Hours since 12:00 Am Nov 1 2013 PV System Output Under Snowy Conditions 45* 30* 15* Shedding from 45* Source: MTU KRC
  9. 9. Source: MTU KRC Data
  10. 10. Houghton Average = 3.8 Peak Sun Hours/Day* Energy = 1kW*3.8h = 3.8kWh Source: pveducation.org *Source: MTU KRC Data
  11. 11. Source: pveducation.org California Average = 6 Peak Sun Hours/Day* Energy = 1kW*6h = 6kWh
  12. 12. Source: MTU KRC Data Nov-Feb total irradiance = only 8% year total
  13. 13. Source: Michigan Public Service Commission
  14. 14. Source: www.nrel.gov
  15. 15. Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton •6000 [kWh] (source) Annual Consumption : •6000/365 = ~ 16.4 [kWh] Daily Consumption: •3.8 [h] Average Daily Sun Hours
  16. 16. Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton • Daily Consumption / (Sun Hours * Derate Factor)= 16.4/(3.8*0.8) = 5.4 [kW]System Size • System Size*Cost Per kW = 5.4*$3,500 =$18,900System Cost • 30% of system costs = $18,900 – 30%*18,900 = $13,448 Federal Tax Rebate
  17. 17. Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton •Energy*Rates = 6000*0.21 = $1,260 Annual Savings •System Costs / Annual Savings = 11 years Payback Period
  18. 18. Utility Fuel Source Summary Fuel Source USA OCREA UPPCO Region Coal 39.10% 63.80% 54.11% 59.43% Nuclear 19.18% 23.10% 23.08% 25.36% Gas 27.57% 5.50% 8.90% 9.77% Oil 0.67% 0.10% 0.50% 0.55% Hydroelectric 7.07% 3.40% 9.55% 0.65% Biofuel 0.00% 0.00% 0.45% 0.49% Biomass 0.92% 0.10% 0.41% 0.45% Wind 4.11% 2.80% 2.50% 2.75% Wood 0.48% 0.10% 0.44% 0.49% Other 0.71% 1.10% 0.50% 0.44% Solar 0.20% 0.00% 0.02% 0.02% Source: OCREA Fuel Mix Report Source: MPSC Regional Average Fuel Mix Disclosure Source: EIA Total Power Industry Fuel Sources
  19. 19. Currently all MI utilities are on track to meet RES Compliance* Phased integration of renewables 50% cheaper than new coal generation facilities. *Source: MPSC Report on RESCompliance *Figure: MIRECS 2009-2013 Credits by Energy Source Impact of MI PA 295
  20. 20. Benefits of Renewables  Michigan Department of Energy, Labor & Economic Growth Report on Green Jobs says renewable energy sector job creation = 3% of all private sector employment in state  International Energy Agency Report on Energy Security says renewable energy systems reduce supply disruptions and reliance on imported fuel.
  21. 21. Actual Quote: “The only green that matters, is the color of my $$$$$” (Obviously, not a philosopher)
  22. 22. Simple ROI Calculation
  23. 23. Population Aggregate MW Solar People Per Panel Houghton 30,000 0.003 2,500 California 38,041,430 1892.05 5 Texas 26,059,203 185.47 35 Florida 19,317,568 93.91 51 New Mexico 2,085,538 151.7 3 Arizona 6,553,255 775.59 2
  24. 24. Factors Influencing Solar Adoption  Early adopters motivated by environmental factors [Falers et al]  If consumers cannot identify the relative advantage of solar power over their current sources of power, it is unlikely that adoption will follow. [Falers et al]  Economic intentional variables, as well as variables indicating basic knowledge and actual environmental behavior in the past, are strong predictors of the probability of adoption. [Arkesteijn et al]  The installation of one additional solar photovoltaic rooftop project within the past six months in a given area increased the average number of installations within a half mile radius by 44% [Graziano et al.]
  25. 25. Steps to Solar  How much am I consuming?  Reading your electricity bill  Can I install?  Energy Policy?  How much sun at my location?  How much does it cost?  System size?  Loan payments?  How much will I save?  Energy Rates?  How much will rates increase?  Performance?  Effects of snow?  System degradation over time?  Environmental Impact?  Alternatives?  Energy Efficiency savings?
  26. 26. Steps to Solar  How much am I consuming?  Reading your electricity bill  Can I install?  Energy Policy?  How much sun at my location?  How much does it cost?  System size?  Loan payments?  How much will I save?  Energy Rates?  How much will rates increase?  Performance?  Effects of snow?  System degradation over time?  Environmental Impact?  Alternatives?  Energy Efficiency savings?
  27. 27. http://solarizehoughton.org/resources/
  28. 28. 2013 2014 2015
  29. 29. Solar Market Penetration in Houghton 2013:- ~30kW Summer 2014: 60kW added Fall 2015: +200kW expected.
  30. 30. Large majority of installed net metered customer generation is Solar. Source: MPSCAnnual Net Metering Report 2014 Figure: MPSC 2013 Net Metering Program - Installed CapacityFigure: MPSC 2013 Net Metering Program - Installations Growth of Solar in Michigan
  31. 31. Source: National Renewable Energy Labs *Figure: MIRECS 2009-2013 Credits by Energy Source
  32. 32. OCREA ALGERDELTA UPPCO PRESQUEISLE WEPCO GREATLAKES DTEELECTRIC ALPENAPOWER CONSUMERS TRI-COUNTY CHERRYLAND MIDWEST… THUMB CLOVERLAND XCEL WPS AEP MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC RATES 2013 [$/KWH] MI Average: $0.14/kWh Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013 PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rates
  33. 33. PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rate Increases OCREA ALGERDELTA UPPCO PRESQUEISLE WEPCO GREATLAKES DTEELECTRIC ALPENAPOWER CONSUMERS TRI-COUNTY CHERRYLAND MIDWESTENERGY THUMB CLOVERLAND XCEL WPS AEP MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC RATE INCREASE 2001-2013 MI Average: 74% Source: MPSC Utility Rates Summary
  34. 34. PV Market Opportunity by Average Annual Consumption MI Average: 8MWh/Year OCREA ALGERDELTA UPPCO PRESQUEISLE WEPCO GREATLAKES DTEELECTRIC ALPENAPOWER CONSUMERS TRI-COUNTY CHERRYLAND MIDWESTENERGY THUMB CLOVERLAND XCEL WPS AEP MI AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION 2013 [MWH/YEAR]Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013
  35. 35. Utility Rank by rates Rank by rate Increase Rank by Consumption Aggregate Rank OCREA 1 1 1 1 ALGER DELTA 2 3 2 2 UPPCO 3 2 4 3 WEPCO 5 4 6 4 PRESQUE ISLE 4 12 3 5 ALPENA POWER 8 9 5 6 DTE ELECTRIC 7 8 9 7 GREAT LAKES 6 11 7 8 CONSUMERS 9 5 11 9 MIDWEST ENERGY 12 6 16 10 XCEL 15 13 8 11 CHERRYLAND 11 14 13 12 WPS 16 10 12 12 AEP 17 7 15 14 TRI-COUNTY 10 15 14 14 CLOVERLAND 14 16 10 16 THUMB 13 17 17 17 PV Residential Solar Market Potential
  36. 36. Utility Rank by rates Rank by rate Increase Rank by Consumption Aggregate Rank Rank by % Net- Generation OCREA 1 1 1 1 1 ALGER DELTA 2 3 2 2 2 UPPCO 3 2 4 3 4 WEPCO 5 4 6 4 11 PRESQUE ISLE 4 12 3 5 5 ALPENA POWER 8 9 5 6 6 DTE ELECTRIC 7 8 9 7 7 GREAT LAKES 6 11 7 8 8 CONSUMERS 9 5 11 9 12 MIDWEST ENERGY 12 6 16 10 9 XCEL 15 13 8 11 14 CHERRYLAND 11 14 13 12 N/A WPS 16 10 12 12 12 AEP 17 7 15 14 13 TRI-COUNTY 10 15 14 14 N/A CLOVERLAND 14 16 10 16 10 THUMB 13 17 17 17 3 PV Residential Solar Market Potential
  37. 37. http://solar.maps.umn.edu/app/ LIDAR Mapping of Solar Potential for the entire state of MN
  38. 38. Source: NREL Study On solar soft costs
  39. 39. What happens when net-metering programs end?
  40. 40. MPSC SolarWorking Group:Value Of Solar? (VOS) 1. Expand current program till 50MW aggregate 2. Buy all, credit all 3. Buy net, credit net Source: MPSC SolarWorking Group Report, June 2014
  41. 41. Source: CAISO
  42. 42. Source: EIA
  43. 43. (VOS):Value of Solar VOS proposed by Michigan Utility DTE
  44. 44. (VOS):Value of Solar VOS used in Minnesota
  45. 45. (VOS):Value of Solar VOS used in Austin,Texas
  46. 46. Summary  Michigan Net-Metering program largely untapped (only 94% un-utilized)  High electric rates offer good value proposition for solar  DIY packages/software tools to reduce soft costs  Michigan solar manufacturers and distributors to reduce hardware costs  VOS methodology aims to find ‘fair’ costs of adding solar.  Champion solar through passive data-driven community networking (free calculator)  Consider promoting efficiency as an accessible alternative to solar.  Abhi is awesome
  47. 47. Contact Information Abhilash Kantamneni 221 Rekhi Hall Michigan Tech 1400 Townsend Drive Houghton MI akantamn@mtu.edu @akantamn www.Abhilash.me www.SolarizeHoughton.org
  48. 48. Bonus Slides!
  49. 49. Cabbages and Solar?
  50. 50. Cabbages and Solar?  Sell Price: $0.21 each  Buying Price: $0.03 each
  51. 51. Electric Utility Markets are a “Zero-Sum Game” Rates = $$Generation + $$Transmission + $$Distribution + $$Administration + $$Return on Equity
  52. 52. Working Group Recommendations Expand Net Metering to state wide 50MW Credit on net generation Credit on generation Source: MPSC SolarWorking Group Report, June 2014
  53. 53. Organic cabbages?  Healthier  Locally grown  No new roads  No large farms
  54. 54. Storage: Generation Shifting Credit: climatetechwiki.org
  55. 55. Storage: Load Shifting Credit: Scientific American
  56. 56. Reliable, affordable and sustainable energy for all Goals:
  57. 57. Source: Solar Energy Industry Forecast: U.S. DOE
  58. 58. Public Awareness Technological Maturity Regulatory Action Legislative Support Market Drivers
  59. 59. How to Bring Change: Homeboy Solar Industries • Increases Sustainability • Reduced Prison Recidivism • Saves taxpayer money
  60. 60. Husky Pride! Solarize Houghton
  61. 61. Solar Market Penetration in Houghton 2013:- ~30kW Summer 2014: 60kW added Fall 2015: +200kW expected.
  62. 62. Solarizing Houghton (Summer 2015) Buying Club Workshop Public Seminars DIY Kits
  63. 63. Source: MTU KRC Data Nov-Feb total irradiance = only 8% year total
  64. 64. Summer Production: 77 Sq. miles Winter Production: 1,732 Sq. miles

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