Demography Com Medicine

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Demography Com Medicine

  1. 1. DemographyDemography Instructor: Aijaz Ahmed SohagInstructor: Aijaz Ahmed Sohag – MSc (Env:Sc),M.A.S(H.S.A.),MBA(HealthMSc (Env:Sc),M.A.S(H.S.A.),MBA(Health Mgt),MPH , PhDMgt),MPH , PhD Prepared by: Abdulwasay BalochPrepared by: Abdulwasay Baloch
  2. 2. DemographyDemography • ‘’‘’Scientific or statistical study of HumanScientific or statistical study of Human population concerning theirpopulation concerning their sizesize (no. of persons(no. of persons in a population at a given time)in a population at a given time) distributiondistribution (arrangement of population in space at a given(arrangement of population in space at a given time) andtime) and structurestructure (distribution of population(distribution of population regarding age, sex, changes occur due to growthregarding age, sex, changes occur due to growth or decline of population resulting from births,or decline of population resulting from births, deaths, and in or out migration)’’deaths, and in or out migration)’’
  3. 3. Population studies and its importancePopulation studies and its importance • Besides demographic variable( birth, death,Besides demographic variable( birth, death, migration) and it has also relationship withmigration) and it has also relationship with – Socio economicSocio economic – PoliticalPolitical – BiologicalBiological – GeneticGenetic – GeographicalGeographical – EnvironmentEnvironment – Health and the likeHealth and the like
  4. 4. DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSDEMOGRAPHIC PROCESS • FertilityFertility • MortalityMortality • MarriageMarriage • MigrationMigration • Social mobilitySocial mobility
  5. 5. Demographic CycleDemographic Cycle • Stage 1 HIGH StationaryStage 1 HIGH Stationary • High birth rate, high death rateHigh birth rate, high death rate
  6. 6. • Stage 2 Early ExpandingStage 2 Early Expanding • Death rate begins to decline while birth rateDeath rate begins to decline while birth rate remains unchanged(e.g. South Asia & Africa)remains unchanged(e.g. South Asia & Africa)
  7. 7. • Stage 3 – Late ExpandingStage 3 – Late Expanding • Death rate declines still further and birth rateDeath rate declines still further and birth rate tends to fall, Population continue to grow.tends to fall, Population continue to grow. • Birth exceeds death rateBirth exceeds death rate
  8. 8. • Stage 4 – Low stationaryStage 4 – Low stationary • Low birth rate, low death rate with populationLow birth rate, low death rate with population becomes stationary.Zero population(e.g.becomes stationary.Zero population(e.g. industrialized nations like Sweden)industrialized nations like Sweden)
  9. 9. • Stage 5 – decliningStage 5 – declining • Birth rate less than death rateBirth rate less than death rate • Population starts decliningPopulation starts declining Example; Germany and Hungary. NegativeExample; Germany and Hungary. Negative Growth Rate)Growth Rate)
  10. 10. Population GrowthPopulation Growth • Slow growth less than 0.5Slow growth less than 0.5 • Moderate growth 0.5 to 1Moderate growth 0.5 to 1 • Rapid growth 1 to 1.5Rapid growth 1 to 1.5 • Very rapid growth 1.5 to 2Very rapid growth 1.5 to 2 • Explosive growth; greater than 2Explosive growth; greater than 2
  11. 11. Fertility indicators or StatisticsFertility indicators or Statistics • Birth RateBirth Rate • No of live births during the year/ * 1000 overNo of live births during the year/ * 1000 over estimated mid year populationestimated mid year population
  12. 12. • General fertility rate;GFRGeneral fertility rate;GFR – No of live births in an area during the year/ * 1000No of live births in an area during the year/ * 1000 Mid year female population in same area and sameMid year female population in same area and same yearyear
  13. 13. • Total fertility rate; TFRTotal fertility rate; TFR – No of children a woman would have if she were toNo of children a woman would have if she were to pass through her reproductive yearspass through her reproductive years
  14. 14. • Age specific fertility rate;ASFRAge specific fertility rate;ASFR – No of live births in an area during the year/ * 1000No of live births in an area during the year/ * 1000 Mid year female pop specific ageMid year female pop specific age
  15. 15. Demographic trendsDemographic trends 1.1. Total populationTotal population 2.2. Growth rateGrowth rate 3.3. population doubling timepopulation doubling time 4.4. Life expectancyLife expectancy 5.5. Literacy rateLiteracy rate 6.6. family sizefamily size 7.7. World population dayWorld population day 8.8. Govt deptGovt dept 9.9. NGO, Family Planning Assosiation of Pakistan, FPAPNGO, Family Planning Assosiation of Pakistan, FPAP
  16. 16. Growth rate, Annual Growth RateGrowth rate, Annual Growth Rate • When the crude death rate is subtracted fromWhen the crude death rate is subtracted from the crude birth rate, the net residual is thethe crude birth rate, the net residual is the annual growth rate, exclusive of Migrationannual growth rate, exclusive of Migration • Growth rate is dependant onGrowth rate is dependant on – Age distributionAge distribution – Marriage customsMarriage customs – Numerous cultural, social and economical factorsNumerous cultural, social and economical factors
  17. 17. Fertility/ NatalityFertility/ Natality Actual reproductive performance of a womanActual reproductive performance of a woman •It is the actual bearing of childrenIt is the actual bearing of children •A woman reproductive period is roughly from 15A woman reproductive period is roughly from 15 to 49to 49 •A woman married at 15 and living till 49 with herA woman married at 15 and living till 49 with her husband is exposed to the risk of pregnancy for 35husband is exposed to the risk of pregnancy for 35 years and may give birth to 42 children ( bearingyears and may give birth to 42 children ( bearing one child every 10 months)one child every 10 months)
  18. 18. FecundityFecundity • Physiological capability of a woman toPhysiological capability of a woman to reproduce or Physiological ability amongreproduce or Physiological ability among woman to conceivewoman to conceive
  19. 19. Population Doubling TimePopulation Doubling Time • Time that would take for a population to doubleTime that would take for a population to double • As the population increase in an compoundAs the population increase in an compound interest formula, a 1% per year increase wouldinterest formula, a 1% per year increase would cause the population to double in about 70 yearscause the population to double in about 70 years • If population increasing 3% per year, thatIf population increasing 3% per year, that doubling time will be 23.3doubling time will be 23.3
  20. 20. Causes of High FertilityCauses of High Fertility • Since human fertility falls far below fecundity,Since human fertility falls far below fecundity, there must be some explanations to thisthere must be some explanations to this differencedifference – the effect of disease and health condition of womenthe effect of disease and health condition of women are significantare significant – PhysiologicalPhysiological – SocialSocial – EconomicalEconomical – DemographicDemographic
  21. 21. OVER POPULATION(dependency/sex ratioOVER POPULATION(dependency/sex ratio ““WHEN THE POPULATION IS NOT INWHEN THE POPULATION IS NOT IN BALANCE WITH THE RESOURCES”BALANCE WITH THE RESOURCES” •Total dependency ratio;Total dependency ratio; 0-14 years +65 years and above/* 1000-14 years +65 years and above/* 100 15 to 65 years15 to 65 years •OR children + elderly /*OR children + elderly /* working agedworking aged
  22. 22. OVERPOPULATION (DR -cont)OVERPOPULATION (DR -cont) • DEPENDENCY RATIO CAN BE CALCULATEDDEPENDENCY RATIO CAN BE CALCULATED FROM AGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATIONFROM AGE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION • Dependency Ratio in Pakistan is 84Dependency Ratio in Pakistan is 84 • It means that for every 100 persons inIt means that for every 100 persons in economically active ages there are 84economically active ages there are 84 dependents as compared to Japan wheredependents as compared to Japan where dependency ratio is 44%dependency ratio is 44%
  23. 23. OVERPOPULATION- DR (cont)OVERPOPULATION- DR (cont) This difference is mainly due to high fertility andThis difference is mainly due to high fertility and high mortality in Pakistan and low fertility andhigh mortality in Pakistan and low fertility and low mortality in Japanlow mortality in Japan
  24. 24. OVER POPULATION (cont)OVER POPULATION (cont) • SEX RATIO:SEX RATIO: • ““it is expressed as the NUMBER of males perit is expressed as the NUMBER of males per 100 females”100 females” • number of males/number of females*100number of males/number of females*100
  25. 25. Population PyramidPopulation Pyramid • It is a pictorial/graphical presentation of age – sexIt is a pictorial/graphical presentation of age – sex composition of a populationcomposition of a population • It provides a demographic statement of the currentIt provides a demographic statement of the current age & sex distribution of a populationage & sex distribution of a population • Several facts could be ascertained by a glance at the chartSeveral facts could be ascertained by a glance at the chart – Whether the population is old or youngWhether the population is old or young – What is the dependency ratioWhat is the dependency ratio – At what rate the population is increasingAt what rate the population is increasing – What are the sex ratios at different age groupsWhat are the sex ratios at different age groups – Was there a recent change in fertility or mortality experienceWas there a recent change in fertility or mortality experience of this population etcof this population etc
  26. 26. • USES OF POPULQTION PYRAMID ratio can beUSES OF POPULQTION PYRAMID ratio can be calculatedcalculated • Male to female ratioMale to female ratio • Population changesPopulation changes • Dependency Ratio can be calculatedDependency Ratio can be calculated • Measures the economicalMeasures the economical resources(shelter,food)resources(shelter,food)
  27. 27. URBANIZATIONURBANIZATION • Increase attributed toIncrease attributed to:: • Natural growthNatural growth • Migration from villagesMigration from villages • Attraction of better livingAttraction of better living • AvailabilityAvailability • Social and economicalSocial and economical
  28. 28. DENSITY OF POPULATIONDENSITY OF POPULATION • Density of population is the “number of personsDensity of population is the “number of persons living per square kilometer”living per square kilometer” • Pakistan PD is 225.19 (2010)Pakistan PD is 225.19 (2010) • Our country PD was 217(2008)Our country PD was 217(2008)
  29. 29. Assignment 1Assignment 1 • Many govts in developing countries considerMany govts in developing countries consider fertility reduction to be an important componentfertility reduction to be an important component of their over all strategy for improving standardsof their over all strategy for improving standards of living. What measure has been attributedof living. What measure has been attributed with fertility reduction [ 1 ]with fertility reduction [ 1 ]
  30. 30. Assignment 2Assignment 2 • How you differentiate factors affecting highHow you differentiate factors affecting high fertility and determinants of fertility [ 1.5 ]fertility and determinants of fertility [ 1.5 ] Demographic factor has a role in increaseDemographic factor has a role in increase fertility.Elaborate [ 1.5 ]. Define Sex Ratio. Infertility.Elaborate [ 1.5 ]. Define Sex Ratio. In what scenarios sex ratio may be calculatedwhat scenarios sex ratio may be calculated separately[2]separately[2]
  31. 31. Assignment 3Assignment 3 • What is the simplest measure of fertility [ 1 ].What is the simplest measure of fertility [ 1 ]. • Why it is called crude measure [ 2 ].Why it is called crude measure [ 2 ]. • Total Fertility Rate TFR is not a summaryTotal Fertility Rate TFR is not a summary measure but a set of seven numbers. Explain [2 ]measure but a set of seven numbers. Explain [2 ]
  32. 32. • WORLD POPULATION DAYWORLD POPULATION DAY – 11 JULY– 11 JULY 20142014 • THEME; Aims on awareness of globalTHEME; Aims on awareness of global population issues; HUNGER,population issues; HUNGER, DISEASE,WARFARE, WELFARE & HUMANDISEASE,WARFARE, WELFARE & HUMAN RIGHTSRIGHTS

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