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Francesco D'Orazio - Everything you know about virtual worlds is WRONG - MetaMeets 09, Amsterdam
Patterns and challenges in the evolution of immersive entertainment.
Plus, all the wrongest things you could possibly say at a virtual worlds conference.
EVERYTHING YOU KNOW ABOUT VIRTUAL
WORLDS IS WRONG* francesco dʼorazio, metameets 09, 22/23 may, amsterdam *freely inspired by “Everything you know about ARGs is wrong”, Dan Hon, Six To Start
The market evolution Virtual Worlds
platforms and registered accounts growth Worlds positioned by the average age of the users. This series only shows the 10-30 sector 2008 2006 2004
5 to 10 years old
(Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 70m+ Worlds in development: 08 Key growth areas: 1)Toy Brands and Franchises 2) Spaces to play 3) Relationship building
10 to 15 years old
(Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 230m+ Worlds in development: 07+ Key growth areas: 1) Avatar customization 2) Relationship building 3) Education
15 to 25 years old
(Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 50m+ Worlds in development: 09+ Key growth areas: 1) Mirror Worlds 2) Live Events 3) Media Convergence 4) Vertical Worlds
25+ years old (Q1 2009)
Total reg accounts: 20m+ Worlds in development: 06+ Key growth areas: 1) Mirror Worlds / Retail 2) Existing Social Networks 3) Business usage
Projections 22 % of global
broadband users will register for one or more virtual worlds over the next 10 years. -1 billion registrants - 8 billion dollar services opportunity eMarketer estimates that by 2011 53% of total Internet users ages 3-17 will visit a Virtual World at least once per month
Forecasts “80% of Active Internet
Users Will Have A quot;Second Lifequot; in the virtual world by the End of 2011” (Gartner, April 2007) ”52% of internet users in most developed countries will use a 3D avatar at least once a week by the end of 2016” (Metaverse Roadmap, 2007) “In the next 12 months 6-8 million Internet users will try virtual worlds and weekly active users will grow by 2-3 million” (Parks Associates, April 2008) quot;By 2012, 70% of organizations will have established their own private virtual worldsquot; (Gartner, May 2008)
it’s not real, I’m not
bothering something becomes real the moment when two or more people share it itʼs a matter of degrees on a continuum virtual is as real as quot;realquot; can get as long as itʼs shared. the problem is that virtual worlds are not shared enough, therefore they are not that real
Interoperability Capability of two or
more worlds to exchange data via a common set of exchange formats. Provides portability of identities, avatars and assets. • Acceptance of common standards • Every world has to connect to every world • Requires a strong collaboration from each publisher • Perceived as a zero-sum game • Who owns the standards? • Appearance • Inventory transfer and access • Names • IP issues • Payments and currency • Missing inter-world regulatory institutions
and how is markerless AR
going to challenge all this? turning the real world into a virtual world?
The number of virtual worlds
is increasing rapidly •200+ worlds online and in development •350m+ registered accounts •We are where the Social Networking industry was in 2003-2005 but •The technology is not mature •The market is not mature •The growth and life cycles of virtual worlds are very different
multi cross vs world world
using multiple virtual worlds for different engaging in purposes, maintaining interactions that multiple active unfold across two or accounts in various more virtual worlds worlds happening now starting to happen content creators, explorers, socializers (multi-avatar 15%, avg 3, min2, max 16)
so what are the next
steps • cross-world mentality • web integration • connecting worlds • storytelling • keeping it real: things and places
Web integration Now Social networks
integration More virtual worlds / web mashups More synchronous communication tools into web pages 2D/3D integrations More web-based virtual worlds Virtual worlds/web integrations Mobile access to virtual worlds Virtual worlds / real world data blending Future
Outeroperability A central hub or
destination for all avatars that acts as the gateway between the virtual worlds. Connects virtual worlds and the web and the worlds between them using the web as a bridge. Worlds need it to be visible, users need it to keep up easily with their virtual lives. • Worlds don’t need to speak to each other • Light involvement of the virtual world publisher • The integration is modular and based on standard web technology • It doesn’t support portability • But it doesn’t involve the issues connected to it • Allows the development of applications on top of the virtual worlds
Outeroperability ‣Single sign-on Mobile Client
‣Identity Management ‣Search Apps ‣Worlds Browsing The Web ‣Social Networking ‣Social Ranking ‣Recommendations ‣Mobile Apps Gateway ‣Micro Payments ‣Gaming World 7 World 1 World 6 World 2 World 3 World 5 World 4
What are we going to
do with connected worlds? Structuring participation is key to achieve immersive engagement “we do not merely 'suspend' a critical faculty; we also exercise a creative faculty. We do not suspend disbelief so much as we actively create belief ” (sharon murray)
Immersive Storytelling The user plays
the role of the protagonist in a dramatically rich environment The user wanders around a dramatic universe of possibilities which lacks the sense of directed inevitability. Storytelling is a need and a huge opportunity for virtual worlds
Patterns and challenges in the evolution of immersive entertainment.
Plus, all the wrongest things you could possibly say at a virtual worlds conference.
EVERYTHING YOU KNOW ABOUT VIRTUAL
WORLDS IS WRONG* francesco dʼorazio, metameets 09, 22/23 may, amsterdam *freely inspired by “Everything you know about ARGs is wrong”, Dan Hon, Six To Start
The market evolution Virtual Worlds
platforms and registered accounts growth Worlds positioned by the average age of the users. This series only shows the 10-30 sector 2008 2006 2004
5 to 10 years old
(Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 70m+ Worlds in development: 08 Key growth areas: 1)Toy Brands and Franchises 2) Spaces to play 3) Relationship building
10 to 15 years old
(Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 230m+ Worlds in development: 07+ Key growth areas: 1) Avatar customization 2) Relationship building 3) Education
15 to 25 years old
(Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 50m+ Worlds in development: 09+ Key growth areas: 1) Mirror Worlds 2) Live Events 3) Media Convergence 4) Vertical Worlds
25+ years old (Q1 2009)
Total reg accounts: 20m+ Worlds in development: 06+ Key growth areas: 1) Mirror Worlds / Retail 2) Existing Social Networks 3) Business usage
Projections 22 % of global
broadband users will register for one or more virtual worlds over the next 10 years. -1 billion registrants - 8 billion dollar services opportunity eMarketer estimates that by 2011 53% of total Internet users ages 3-17 will visit a Virtual World at least once per month
Forecasts “80% of Active Internet
Users Will Have A quot;Second Lifequot; in the virtual world by the End of 2011” (Gartner, April 2007) ”52% of internet users in most developed countries will use a 3D avatar at least once a week by the end of 2016” (Metaverse Roadmap, 2007) “In the next 12 months 6-8 million Internet users will try virtual worlds and weekly active users will grow by 2-3 million” (Parks Associates, April 2008) quot;By 2012, 70% of organizations will have established their own private virtual worldsquot; (Gartner, May 2008)
it’s not real, I’m not
bothering something becomes real the moment when two or more people share it itʼs a matter of degrees on a continuum virtual is as real as quot;realquot; can get as long as itʼs shared. the problem is that virtual worlds are not shared enough, therefore they are not that real
Interoperability Capability of two or
more worlds to exchange data via a common set of exchange formats. Provides portability of identities, avatars and assets. • Acceptance of common standards • Every world has to connect to every world • Requires a strong collaboration from each publisher • Perceived as a zero-sum game • Who owns the standards? • Appearance • Inventory transfer and access • Names • IP issues • Payments and currency • Missing inter-world regulatory institutions
and how is markerless AR
going to challenge all this? turning the real world into a virtual world?
The number of virtual worlds
is increasing rapidly •200+ worlds online and in development •350m+ registered accounts •We are where the Social Networking industry was in 2003-2005 but •The technology is not mature •The market is not mature •The growth and life cycles of virtual worlds are very different
multi cross vs world world
using multiple virtual worlds for different engaging in purposes, maintaining interactions that multiple active unfold across two or accounts in various more virtual worlds worlds happening now starting to happen content creators, explorers, socializers (multi-avatar 15%, avg 3, min2, max 16)
so what are the next
steps • cross-world mentality • web integration • connecting worlds • storytelling • keeping it real: things and places
Web integration Now Social networks
integration More virtual worlds / web mashups More synchronous communication tools into web pages 2D/3D integrations More web-based virtual worlds Virtual worlds/web integrations Mobile access to virtual worlds Virtual worlds / real world data blending Future
Outeroperability A central hub or
destination for all avatars that acts as the gateway between the virtual worlds. Connects virtual worlds and the web and the worlds between them using the web as a bridge. Worlds need it to be visible, users need it to keep up easily with their virtual lives. • Worlds don’t need to speak to each other • Light involvement of the virtual world publisher • The integration is modular and based on standard web technology • It doesn’t support portability • But it doesn’t involve the issues connected to it • Allows the development of applications on top of the virtual worlds
Outeroperability ‣Single sign-on Mobile Client
‣Identity Management ‣Search Apps ‣Worlds Browsing The Web ‣Social Networking ‣Social Ranking ‣Recommendations ‣Mobile Apps Gateway ‣Micro Payments ‣Gaming World 7 World 1 World 6 World 2 World 3 World 5 World 4
What are we going to
do with connected worlds? Structuring participation is key to achieve immersive engagement “we do not merely 'suspend' a critical faculty; we also exercise a creative faculty. We do not suspend disbelief so much as we actively create belief ” (sharon murray)
Immersive Storytelling The user plays
the role of the protagonist in a dramatically rich environment The user wanders around a dramatic universe of possibilities which lacks the sense of directed inevitability. Storytelling is a need and a huge opportunity for virtual worlds