Francesco D'Orazio - Everything you know about virtual worlds is WRONG - MetaMeets 09, Amsterdam

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Patterns and challenges in the evolution of immersive entertainment.

Plus, all the wrongest things you could possibly say at a virtual worlds conference.

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Francesco D'Orazio - Everything you know about virtual worlds is WRONG - MetaMeets 09, Amsterdam

  1. EVERYTHING YOU KNOW ABOUT VIRTUAL WORLDS IS WRONG* francesco dʼorazio, metameets 09, 22/23 may, amsterdam *freely inspired by “Everything you know about ARGs is wrong”, Dan Hon, Six To Start
  2. linear predictions organic reality
  3. The market evolution Virtual Worlds platforms and registered accounts growth Worlds positioned by the average age of the users. This series only shows the 10-30 sector 2008 2006 2004
  4. Universe graph Q2 2008 Worlds positioned by the average age of the users.
  5. 5 to 10 years old (Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 70m+ Worlds in development: 08 Key growth areas: 1)Toy Brands and Franchises 2) Spaces to play 3) Relationship building
  6. 10 to 15 years old (Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 230m+ Worlds in development: 07+ Key growth areas: 1) Avatar customization 2) Relationship building 3) Education
  7. 15 to 25 years old (Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 50m+ Worlds in development: 09+ Key growth areas: 1) Mirror Worlds 2) Live Events 3) Media Convergence 4) Vertical Worlds
  8. 25+ years old (Q1 2009) Total reg accounts: 20m+ Worlds in development: 06+ Key growth areas: 1) Mirror Worlds / Retail 2) Existing Social Networks 3) Business usage
  9. Projections 22 % of global broadband users will register for one or more virtual worlds over the next 10 years. -1 billion registrants - 8 billion dollar services opportunity eMarketer estimates that by 2011 53% of total Internet users ages 3-17 will visit a Virtual World at least once per month
  10. Forecasts “80% of Active Internet Users Will Have A quot;Second Lifequot; in the virtual world by the End of 2011” (Gartner, April 2007) ”52% of internet users in most developed countries will use a 3D avatar at least once a week by the end of 2016” (Metaverse Roadmap, 2007) “In the next 12 months 6-8 million Internet users will try virtual worlds and weekly active users will grow by 2-3 million” (Parks Associates, April 2008) quot;By 2012, 70% of organizations will have established their own private virtual worldsquot; (Gartner, May 2008)
  11. we’re not going to be able to handle so many avatars
  12. all very cool. there is only one problem...
  13. ...it’s not really happening
  14. we don’t have enough players accounts doesn’t mean users “virtual worlds” searches “second life” searches visibility didn’t turn into engagement
  15. the people who play are weird
  16. ...or, they’re just not really mainstream
  17. which doesn’t mean it’s not fun
  18. only, we build stuff for the hardcore
  19. which makes it even more expensive
  20. and on top of that... we don’t scale
  21. WHY IS THAT SO?
  22. time to look into this before it’s too late
  23. it’s not real, I’m not bothering something becomes real the moment when two or more people share it itʼs a matter of degrees on a continuum virtual is as real as quot;realquot; can get as long as itʼs shared. the problem is that virtual worlds are not shared enough, therefore they are not that real
  24. it’s just avatars, not real people
  25. to be completely honest, Bevan was looking as well when an avatar speaks [almost] nobody looks
  26. you must be there real-time synchronous communication limits the engagement and narrows the adoption
  27. but is that really true?
  28. accessibility sucks Using virtual worlds means running heavy applications on specific machines
  29. [lack of] web integration What happens inside stays inside
  30. RT @doeko what problem are we solving?
  31. and then... we crossed the streams
  32. “the web will evolve from pages to places”
  33. while it is actually going from pages to streams
  34. virtual worlds vs web: real-time is making the web immersive and a virtual world itself where do virtual worlds and the 3d web fit in this scenario?
  35. is the real-time web cannibalizing virtual worlds? what more have virtual worlds to offer? Gaming? SN? 3D? And is this appealing enough
  36. Interoperability Capability of two or more worlds to exchange data via a common set of exchange formats. Provides portability of identities, avatars and assets. • Acceptance of common standards • Every world has to connect to every world • Requires a strong collaboration from each publisher • Perceived as a zero-sum game • Who owns the standards? • Appearance • Inventory transfer and access • Names • IP issues • Payments and currency • Missing inter-world regulatory institutions
  37. not happening by standards but by clusters
  38. virtual worlds are a 30 years old medium
  39. they replicate the same 19th century immersive model of the panorama
  40. immersion by confinement and containment
  41. and how is markerless AR going to challenge all this? turning the real world into a virtual world?
  42. The number of virtual worlds is increasing rapidly •200+ worlds online and in development •350m+ registered accounts •We are where the Social Networking industry was in 2003-2005 but •The technology is not mature •The market is not mature •The growth and life cycles of virtual worlds are very different
  43. context content driven driven single multi world world
  44. losing the world metaphor
  45. multi cross vs world world using multiple virtual worlds for different engaging in purposes, maintaining interactions that multiple active unfold across two or accounts in various more virtual worlds worlds happening now starting to happen content creators, explorers, socializers (multi-avatar 15%, avg 3, min2, max 16)
  46. so what are the next steps • cross-world mentality • web integration • connecting worlds • storytelling • keeping it real: things and places
  47. IPC GOES 3D multi-title/cross-world virtual goods campaign
  48. Web integration Now Social networks integration More virtual worlds / web mashups More synchronous communication tools into web pages 2D/3D integrations More web-based virtual worlds Virtual worlds/web integrations Mobile access to virtual worlds Virtual worlds / real world data blending Future
  49. Outeroperability A central hub or destination for all avatars that acts as the gateway between the virtual worlds. Connects virtual worlds and the web and the worlds between them using the web as a bridge. Worlds need it to be visible, users need it to keep up easily with their virtual lives. • Worlds don’t need to speak to each other • Light involvement of the virtual world publisher • The integration is modular and based on standard web technology • It doesn’t support portability • But it doesn’t involve the issues connected to it • Allows the development of applications on top of the virtual worlds
  50. Outeroperability ‣Single sign-on Mobile Client ‣Identity Management ‣Search Apps ‣Worlds Browsing The Web ‣Social Networking ‣Social Ranking ‣Recommendations ‣Mobile Apps Gateway ‣Micro Payments ‣Gaming World 7 World 1 World 6 World 2 World 3 World 5 World 4
  51. What are we going to do with connected worlds? Structuring participation is key to achieve immersive engagement “we do not merely 'suspend' a critical faculty; we also exercise a creative faculty. We do not suspend disbelief so much as we actively create belief ” (sharon murray)
  52. Immersive Storytelling The user plays the role of the protagonist in a dramatically rich environment The user wanders around a dramatic universe of possibilities which lacks the sense of directed inevitability. Storytelling is a need and a huge opportunity for virtual worlds
  53. What’s the story here? simple narrative treasure hunts casual gaming paths quests RPG ARG complex narrative
  54. The Cross-World Gaming System AI XWorld World 1 Gaming Engine RL Stand-alone client Agents Gateway World 2 The Web World 3 Mobile World 4
  55. The Metaverse as an Entertainment Platform Market Diversification Web Integration Multi-world usage XWorld Immersive Storytelling
  56. thanks! francesco.dorazio@gmail.com www.makersofuniverses.com @abc3d

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