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Prof. Badimi\'s Slides on Transportation

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Prof. Badimi\'s Slides on Transportation

  1. 1. Urban Transport in India: Beyond the Nano and Metro … and Back to the Basics Madhav G. Badami McGill University Indian Institute of Technology, Madras February 13, 2008 mgb-eat2
  2. 2. Outline • The Problem -- Rapid motor vehicle growth and impacts • UT in India – Prospects, Characteristics and Considerations • Getting from Here to There – what WILL and WILL NOT work … and WHY • Some Questions for Thought and Debate mgb-eat2
  3. 3. The Problem -- Rapid motor vehicle growth and impacts mgb-eat2
  4. 4. Motor Vehicle Growth in India, 1971-2001 Others Goods Cars, Jeeps, Taxis M2W Vehicles 60 Rapid growth nationally 50 M2W vehicles predominate, but … Million vehicles 40 30 20 10 0 1971 1981 1991 2001 Source: MORTH, 2004. mgb-eat2
  5. 5. Population and Motor Vehicle Growth in Delhi 1941-2001 mgb-eat2
  6. 6. Motor Vehicle Activity -- Impacts • Mobility for millions; employment; technological know-how and skills • Serious local impacts – Road safety, access and mobility for urban poor and NMT – Air pollution, noise, congestion, transport wastes – PRIORITIZING IMPACTS • Regional and global impacts – Acidification, ozone, ABC – Climate change – Energy security mgb-eat2
  7. 7. Road Safety • Rising trends -- India vs. USA • Pedestrians and cyclists worst affected • Traffic injuries – life years lost Victim (%) Impacting Vehicle (%) Pedestrian/ Single 63 6 Cycle vehicle M2W 27 M2W 5 M3W 2 M3W 1 Car 3 Car 23 Bus/Truck 5 Bus/Truck 65 Delhi Traffic Police (2004), courtesy Kavi Bhalla mgb-eat2
  8. 8. PM-10 Daily limit exceeded most days every year mgb-eat2 Courtesy Milind Kandlikar
  9. 9. Courtesy The Guardian mgb-eat2
  10. 10. Global Energy Consumption by Sector, 1971-2001 Industry Road Transport Residential Other 8000 Energy growth most rapid in road transport until recently 6000 M TOE 4000 2000 0 1971 1981 1991 2001 Road transport 80% of total transport Source: IEA, 2006 mgb-eat2
  11. 11. Global Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1971-2001 Industry Road Transport Other 4000 3000 M TOE 2000 1000 0 1971 1981 1991 2001 Source: IEA, 2006 mgb-eat2
  12. 12. Road Transport Energy Consumption by Region, 1971-2001 OECD-NA Other OECD Asia ROW Source: IEA (2006) 1,600 All OECD – 70%; North America – 40% 1,200 M TO E 800 400 0 1971 1981 1991 2001 mgb-eat2
  13. 13. UT in India – Prospects, Characteristics and Considerations mgb-eat2
  14. 14. Rapid Urbanization 1950 (1) 1975 (5; 1 Asian LIC) 2000 (16; 8 Asian LIC, 2015 (21; 10 Asian LIC, 3 Indian) 3 Indian) New York 12.3 Tokyo 19.7 Tokyo 26.4 Tokyo 27.2 New York 15.9 Mexico City 18.1 Dhaka 22.8 Shanghai 11.4 Sao Paulo 17.9 Bombay 22.6 Mexico City 10.7 New York 16.7 Sao Paulo 21.2 Sao Paulo 10.3 Bombay 16.1 Delhi 20.9 Mexico City 20.4 Los Angeles 13.2 New York 17.9 Calcutta 13.1 Jakarta 17.3 Shanghai 12.9 Calcutta 16.7 Dhaka 12.5 Karachi 16.2 Delhi 12.4 Lagos 16.0 Buenos Aires 12.0 Los Angeles 14.5 Jakarta 11.0 Shanghai 13.6 Osaka 11.0 Buenos Aires 13.2 Beijing 10.8 Metro Manila 12.6 Rio de Janeiro 10.7 Beijing 11.7 Karachi 10.0 Rio de Janeiro 11.5 Cairo 11.5 Istanbul 11.4 Osaka 11.0 Tianjin 10.3 Rapid urbanization; mega-cities; rapidly growing medium-sized cities Rapid urbanization; mega-cities; rapidly growing medium-sized cities In 2015, Asia will likely have 160 cities with >1 m. population (30% in India) In 2015, Asia will likely have 160 cities with >1 m. population (30% in India) mgb-eat2 Source: UN (1999; 2002; 2003) Source: UN (1999; 2002; 2003)
  15. 15. Rapidly Growing Motor Vehicle Ownership and Use • Rapid urbanization, growing incomes, growing supply, easy credit • “Buying a dream” – advertising (PHOTO) • Changing family structure and gender relations • Ownership per capita much lower than in OECD, but much higher than at similar per capita incomes (M2W vehicles); now Nano • Advantages of MVs, low cost of MV use (M2W vehicle), but also force of circumstance – People forced to live afar, priced out of land market – Poor public transit – Congestion, compromised access and safety – Planning for motor vehicles, neglect of NMV • People forced to buy and use personal MVs; Social trap • Growth rates of M2W vs Cars vs Public transit mgb-eat2
  16. 16. mgb-eat2 Courtesy Lloyd Wright and Sujit Patwardhan
  17. 17. At the Same Time … Poverty … and High PT and NMT Use • Growing incomes but also low affordability and high levels of urban poverty • Rapid urbanization – growing incomes – rapid motorization -- mass poverty -- low motor vehicle ownership rates -- important consequences for Urban transport Outcomes • Land use – high densities, mixed use • Distribution of trips by purpose, distance (CHARTS) • High PT and NMT shares (CHARTS) mgb-eat2
  18. 18. Distribution of Trips by Purpose in Delhi Education Work Business Shopping Other 0 10 20 30 40 50 % Share of trips Source: RITES/ORG 1994 mgb-eat2
  19. 19. Distribution of Trips by Distance in Delhi Work Education All 100 Cumulative % of trips 80 60 Mean Trip Lengths 40 Education 3.3 km Work 9.7 km 20 All trips 6.8 km 0 < 2.5 <5 < 10 < 15 < 20 < 25 > 25 Distance, km Source: RITES/ORG, 1994 mgb-eat2
  20. 20. Mode Shares in Delhi Bus Walk M2W Car+Jeep+Van Bicycle Rickshaw M3W 0 10 20 30 40 50 % Share Source: RITES/ORG, 1994. mgb-eat2
  21. 21. Mode Shares in Mumbai mgb-eat2
  22. 22. Mode Shares – India vs. NA Car/ Transit Cycle Walk Other M2W Delhi/ 15 35 3 43 4 Mumbai Canada 74 14 1 10 1 USA 84 3 1 9 2 mgb-eat2
  23. 23. Urban Transport Impacts • High levels of impacts despite low MV and high PT and NMT mode shares • Large exposures and high levels of poverty – Serious health and welfare effects; poverty-impact synergies – Air pollution, road safety, access and mobility • Costs, benefits unevenly distributed -- poor benefit little from but disproportionately affected by motorization and planning mgb-eat2
  24. 24. Urban Transport Impacts • Proximate causes technological, but underlying behavioural, institutional factors – Fuel/oil adulteration; Poor maintenance; Fuel and spares pricing • Inadequate physical infrastructure • Inadequate resources for policy-making, regulation, monitoring, enforcement – Road rules; parking; I/M; fuel adulteration • Inadequate resources, capabilities and governance ??? mgb-eat2
  25. 25. Policy-making -- Factors • Diverse groups, conflicting objectives, differentially affected • Rapid motorization … but also low affordability, high PT, NMV shares • Traffic conditions – high density, mixed modes and uses -- effects on NMV, PT, MV • Land use – pros and cons; inability to regulate • Medium sized towns and cities -- challenges mgb-eat2
  26. 26. Getting from Here to There – what WILL and WILL NOT work … and WHY mgb-eat2
  27. 27. Urban Transport – A Major Public Concern • Intense frustration, yet resignation • Sense of inevitability • Need to provide more roads for cars • Provide everyone a car (Nano) • Faith in technological solutions – Emission standards, Flyovers, Metro mgb-eat2
  28. 28. Conventional UT Planning – Tightening Belts as a Cure for Obesity … • Inevitability presumed -- Status-quo accommodating • Motor vehicle centred -- high value to time savings in MVs • Narrowly focused – issues, time-frame • “Building our way out of it” has not worked even in resource-rich contexts – US example • Motor vehicles become self-perpetuating • Technological solutions futile -- vicious circle of motorization and impacts – Jaime Lerner • UT Planning is self-fulfilling, reinforcing – IATROGENIC -- Illich • In Indian context, not only infeasible, but highly undesirable -- severe access loss, displacement and social disruption -- Illich mgb-eat2
  29. 29. Metro Systems in LICs – Triumph of Hope over Experience … • Very high capital and operating costs, disruptive, long lead times • Restricted resources necessitate constrained network in rapidly growing urban regions with no strong centres • Low potential for capture beyond access distances of 500 metres; Highly compromised access exacerbates situation • Trip characteristics – lengths (CHART); trip chaining • Egress times; Connectivity at trip end … • High fares required for viability, but low affordability, discretionary travel • Low costs, advantages of MV use (fuel, parking) • Low ridership, little effect on congestion, at very high cost – subsidizing the well-to-do at the expense of low-income groups • Even in HIC’s – Flyvbjerg et al mgb-eat2
  30. 30. Door-to-Door Journey Time: Metro vs. other Modes Source: Dinesh Mohan, 2008 mgb-eat2
  31. 31. MOTORIZATION IS NOT INEVITABLE Policy Does Matter … Car Transit Cycle Walk Other Canada 74 14 1 10 1 USA 84 3 1 9 2 Netherlands 44 8 27 19 1 Sweden 36 11 10 39 4 mgb-eat2
  32. 32. In India – Cut Our UT Coat According to Our Cloth • Inadequate resources, capabilities and governance … OR misguided priorities • Urban Transport Objectives – Cost-effectiveness – Safety – Equity – Resource use – Environmental impact – Well-being – Livability; livelihoods – Reliability, vulnerability to disruptions • Synergies; multiple groups, differentially affected mgb-eat2
  33. 33. Accessibility for All is the Key • Not MOBILITY, or ACCESS TO MOBILITY, but ACCESSIBILITY FOR ALL • Problem avoidance, not end-of-pipeline cure (CHARTS) • Equity, efficient traffic, transit viability, multiple objectives • Public transit – Importance of buses; small and medium sized cities; BRT (CHART) • Curb personal MV activity – Need to internalize Costs – Role of variable costs in behaviour – parking control • Strategic phasing of policies • Land use crucially important – CHARTS • WE HAVE A STARK CHOICE – THE TIME IS NOW mgb-eat2
  34. 34. Door-to-Door Journey Times, Delhi 120 J o u r n e y tim e , m in u te s 100 80 Cycle M2W 60 Car 40 Bus 20 0 2.5 3.8 6.3 8.8 11.3 13.8 16.3 18.8 21.3 23.8 25 Distance, km mgb-eat2
  35. 35. Trips by Distance, Delhi, 1994 100 C u m u la t iv e % o f t rip s 80 60 Work trips M2W trips 40 All trips 20 0 <2.5 <5 < 10 < 15 < 20 < 25 > 25 Distance, km mgb-eat2
  36. 36. BRT vs. Urban Rail mgb-eat2 Courtesy Aurora Fe Ables et al
  37. 37. BRT vs. Urban Rail mgb-eat2 Courtesy Aurora Fe Ables et al
  38. 38. Land Use is Critical Courtesy Alain Bertaud mgb-eat2
  39. 39. Land Use is Critical Courtesy Alain Bertaud mgb-eat2
  40. 40. Some Questions … mgb-eat2
  41. 41. Extras mgb-eat2
  42. 42. Global Petroleum and Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1971-2001 Industry Road Transport Residential Other 5000 Energy growth most rapid in transport until recently 4000 3000 M TO E 2000 1000 0 1971 1981 1991 2001 mgb-eat2 Road transport 80% of total transport Source: IEA (2004)
  43. 43. Mode Shares in Montreal AM Peak % 24-hr % Other Walk AM Peak PT Shares Bus 11.5% Bicycle Metro 7% School Bus Train 0.4% Public Transit Car/LTV 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 % Share mgb-eat2

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