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Slides for defense of dissertation on the national security role of the vice president.

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Dissertation defenseslides

  1. 1. From Throttlebottom to Angler: The Evolving National Security Role of the Vice President Dissertation Defense Aaron Mannes June 10, 2014 1
  2. 2. From Throttlebottom to Angler I would a great deal rather be anything, say a professor of history, than Vice-President – Theodore “Teddy” Roosevelt, 25th Vice President of the United States …the most dangerous vice president we’ve probably had in American history – Vice President Joe Biden describing his predecessor, Dick Cheney In just a few decades the vice presidency has shifted from “Constitutional appendage” to the “Imperial Vice Presidency” What Changed? What do these changes tell us about presidential decision-making and the national security process? 2
  3. 3. Questions & Definitions • Why has the vice presidency become a source of influence? • Why have presidents been increasingly willing to follow the advice of the vice president? Influence is defined by Paul Light as “an adviser’s ability to change outcomes from what they would have been.” It is distinguished from Activity, which is the vice president undertaking tasks on behalf of the president. National Security is understood broadly to include space, energy, economics & trade, and homeland security. Modern Presidency started in 1933 under President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Modern Vice Presidency started 1977 under President Carter and Vice President Mondale 3
  4. 4. Three Theories Three general theories, each with several hypotheses, were examined to understand the growth in vice presidential influence: 1) Demands and powers of the modern presidency have created incentives for presidents to give their VPs expanded roles 2) The semi-institutionalization of the vice presidential role has given the VP the resources to exercise influence 3) Rise of the outsider presidency has brought individuals with little Washington experience to the presidency and they have selected their running mates as partners who can complement their skills and experience
  5. 5. Modern Presidency H1A: When the president is able to select his vice president, the VP is more likely to exercise influence Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence unlikely (present for 6 of 7 influential VPs) • Until 1940, running mates were usually selected by the party and were often not known by the president or a political rival • Allowing the nominee to select his running mate created the possibility of choosing him based on his skills and compatibility • Example: Martin Van Buren H1B: As the demands on the president have increased, the vice president will have greater opportunities to exercise influence Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence unlikely (present for 5 of 7 influential VPs) • Despite the number of influential VPs since the advent of the modern presidency, the strength of this factor was that it created the possibility of the modern outsider president • Insider modern presidents did not rely on their VPs nor did pre-modern outsider presidents 5
  6. 6. H2A: Vice presidents with their own staff are better able to exercise influence. Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence unlikely (present for 5 of 5 influential modern VPs) • In the 1970s, VPs were granted substantial personal staff • Staff allowed the VP to follow issues, develop areas of expertise, and use surrogates for influence Example: Dan Quayle – One of two un-influential vice presidents studied, Quayle attracted extremely capable staffers and expanded the VP’s office – Staff helped him push issues of interest like missile defense and identified areas where he could play a role 6
  7. 7. H2B: Vice presidents with an office in the West Wing are better able to exercise influence Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence unlikely (present for 5 of 5 influential modern VPs) • Nothing propinks like propinquity • Essence of vice presidential influence is time with the president, it is much easier to see the president with an office down the hall • Policy is made by a process of osmosis • Important, but not essential factor - Mondale’s successor, Bush Sr., did not spend as much time as in West Wing and during Cheney’s period of greatest influence he was often at an undisclosed location 7
  8. 8. H2C: Vice presidents with regular access to the President, and with access to White House meetings and paper-flow for themselves and their staff are better able to exercise influence Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence impossible (present for 7 of 7 influential VPs) • Without access to the president, the VP cannot exercise influence • Access to White House meetings and paper-flow is also essential in order to know what decisions are being considered 8 President McKinley and Vice President Hobart vacationing at Lake Champlain
  9. 9. H2D: Vice presidents who are discreet in advancing their policy preferences and publicly loyal to the president are better able to exercise influence Finding: absence of this factor makes vice presidential influence impossible (present for 7of 7 influential VPs) • After consulting his predecessors, particularly his mentor VP Humphrey, VP Mondale adopted a set of low-key influence strategies • Because VPs cannot be fired, they need to be particularly careful to demonstrate loyalty and discretion • Influential VPs have restricted their advice to the president in private or in small trusted groups and publicly supported presidential decisions Example: John C. Calhoun - NOT a model of vice presidential discretion - Headed a political faction and publicly opposed both presidents he served - Later, when he sought to reach out to Jackson, the president was not amenable 9
  10. 10. Outsiders & Insiders H3A: Outsider presidents are more likely to select running mates for personal and political compatibility, increasing the likelihood that the President will include the VP as a top advisor Finding: Presence of this factor makes vice presidential influence probable (present for 4 of 5 modern influential VPs) H3B: Outsider presidents are more likely to be inexperienced in areas such as national security affairs and not have strong national security teams, thus creating opportunities for vice presidential influence Finding: Presence of this factor makes vice presidential influence probable (present for 7 of 7 influential VPs) • Outsider presidential candidates often recognize their unfamiliarity with Washington politics and national security issues and select running mates for their expertise • When national security challenges (inevitably) confront outsider presidents, experienced VPs can help the president make decisions and understand options 10
  11. 11. H3C: Outsider presidents are more likely to seek their vice presidents’ input in the appointments process, which increases the VP’s opportunities for influence • Finding: Presence of this factor makes vice presidential influence probable • This factor was split into two components: - cabinet & bureaucracy allies present for 4 of 7 influential VPs - White House allies present for 4 of 5 modern influential VPs • Allies in cabinet and bureaucracy less frequent for modern VPs • Allies in White House are helpful as sources of information and as alternative voices advancing the VP’s position Example: George H. W. Bush - Bush was not selected for his expertise and, having been a campaign rival, was distrusted by Reaganites - Reagan recognized the need for DC experience on his staff and appointed Bush advisor Jim Baker as White House chief of staff - With Baker as chief of staff, Bush could not be cut out of policy process and had alternate means to reach president 11
  12. 12. Vice Presidential Needs • Without access the VP cannot influence policy • Given access, the VP needs the capability to influence policy • Even if these elements are present, the president has to give the vice president the opportunity to give advice • Opportunities exist when outsider presidents encounter unfamiliar issues 12
  13. 13. The President’s Needs Seeing the Whole Equation Advice TRUST First and foremost, presidents need VPs that can be trusted. Several areas where outsider presidents turn to the VP: • Life and Death decisions • Balancing politics and policy, particularly with Congress • Tools and institutions of national security • Insight into other governments and countries When the biggest issues involve several of these components, presidents may need help seeing the whole equation 13
  14. 14. Overview of Findings Vice%Presidents%Studied%and%their%Influence%Factors% (Influential%Vice%Presidents%Highlighted)% ! Vice President Calhoun Quayle Van Buren Hobart Mondale Bush Gore Cheney Biden Influential VP possessing this factor/ Total applicable influential VPsPresident Jackson Bush Jackson McKinley Carter Reagan Clinton Bush Obama Chosen by President H1A No Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 6/7 Modern Presidency H1B No Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 5/7 Staff H2A NA Yes NA NA Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 5/5 West Wing Office H2B NA Yes NA NA Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 5/5 Access to the President & Policy Process H2C No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 7/7 Modes of Behavior H2D No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 7/7 Outsider President Selects for Expertise H3A NA No NA NA Yes No Yes Yes Yes 4/5 Specialized Knowledge used by President H3B No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 7/7 Allies Appointed in Cabinet & Bureaucracy H3C No No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No 4/7 Allies Appointed in White House H3C NA No NA NA Yes Yes Yes No Yes 4/5 TOTAL 0/6 6/10 5/6 4/6 9/10 8/10 10/10 9/10 9/10 14

Slides for defense of dissertation on the national security role of the vice president.

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