Microsoft PowerPoint - tutorial_idea_generation

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Microsoft PowerPoint - tutorial_idea_generation

  1. 1. GuruFocus Tutorial (I) – Value Idea Generation http://www.gurufocus.com Created: Dec. 2009 Last Update: May 2010
  2. 2. What Can GuruFocus Do For You? Stock Idea Generation – This tutorial Guru Stock Picks and Holdings Insider Buys Value Investing Screeners Monthly Newsletters • Ben Graham NCAV Letter • Buffett-Munger Bargain Letter Stock Idea Validation – see Tutorial II What Gurus are doing with the stock What Insiders are doing with the stock Valuation: • Absolute valuation – DCF Model • Historical valuation – 10-year P/E, P/B, P/S ratios • Relative valuation – Comparable companies • Compare with related companies Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 2
  3. 3. Who are the Gurus? CEO of Investment Companies Warren Buffett, Prem Watsa etc Hedge fund giants George Soros, John Paulson, Tiger Cubs (Maverick, Viking Global, Lone Pine …) etc Mutual fund managers Bruce Berkowitz, Marty Whitman, Bob Rodriguez etc Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 3
  4. 4. How Are Gurus Selected? Investors that have generated long term out- performances with large asset bases Mostly value oriented Warren Buffett, Bruce Berkowitz, Seth Klarman Low portfolio turnovers Some great investors other than value style are also covered: Global Macro: Paul Tudor Jones, Louis Moore Bacon Quants: Jim Simmons, Steven Cohen etc Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 4
  5. 5. Guru Categories Free Gurus: More than 60 gurus’ portfolio and stock picks are FREE to registered users Premium Gurus: Premium Members can access all the features described here. Free members have limited access. Premium Members ($249/year) can suggest their interested Gurus (“Premium Gurus”) that only premium members can access. Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 5
  6. 6. Personalize Your Gurus Personalize your list of gurus so that you only see the gurus you are interested. Check their consensus picks, common holdings etc You have the option of turning on/off the other gurus. To avoid confusion and too much information, The trades and holdings of Premium Gurus will not show up when you check the guru trades of a stock, unless this guru is in your Personalized List of Gurus. Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 6
  7. 7. Guru Idea Generation - Macro Trend Guru Sector/industry trend – which industry they are going? Guru Market cap trend – Large cap? Small Cap? Guru Geographic trend – Where to invest? Asia? South America? Applicable to individual guru portfolios or aggregated portfolios Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 7
  8. 8. Guru Idea Generation - Individual Guru Portfolios Guru new buys and added positions (quarterly updates) Real Times Picks – Guru trades on large positions reported within 2-10 days. Most weighted positions Positions/Picks in particular industry / market cap International Picks ETFs Option holdings (calls, puts) Guru bargains Value ideas in Gurus’ portfolios: Undervalued Predictable companies (DCF model calculated) Low p/e stocks Top growth companies Top dividend yield companies Top Insider LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus Copyright: GuruFocus.com, buys 8
  9. 9. Guru Idea Generation - Aggregated Guru portfolio Guru consensus picks Guru common holdings – Most broadly owned & most weighted Sector Consensus Picks/holdings International Consensus Picks/holdings Guru screener Screen guru holdings with multiple criteria such as industry, market cap, guru buys/sells, dividend, p/e etc Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 9
  10. 10. Idea Generation From Insider Trades Insider Trades CEO, CFO Buys Companies that are bought by their CEOs, CFOs. Insider Cluster Buys Stocks that multiple company officers and directors have bought. Double Buys Companies that both Gurus and Insiders are buying Triple Buys Companies that both Gurus and Insiders are buying, and Company is buying back Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 10
  11. 11. Value Investing Screeners - I Screener of proven value investing strategies Predictability Rank Buffett-Munger Screener Quality stocks young Buffett would buy Ben Graham Net Current Asset Bargain Screener Companies Ben Graham would buy, sold at below net cash Undervalued Predictable companies DCF calculation applied to predictable companies, large margin of safety exists. Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 11
  12. 12. Value Investing Screeners - II Historical Low P/S Companies Predictable companies that are sold at historical low P/S ratios A model portfolio that tracks the performance of the strategy Historical Low P/b Companies Predictable companies that are sold at historical low P/S ratios Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 12
  13. 13. Monthly Newsletters Ben Graham Net Current Asset Bargain Newsletter 3-5 net-net are highlighted per month Buffett-Munger bargains Research reports on 2 undervalued high quality stocks per month Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 13
  14. 14. Other Value Ideas 52-week low guru stocks Broad market valuations Model portfolios Most weighted Broadest owned Guru consensus Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 14
  15. 15. Excel Downloads Individual Portfolios Aggregated Portfolios in different formats Guru Stock Picks Insider Trades Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 15
  16. 16. Email Alerts Opt-in daily and weekly email updates. Follow your favorite gurus, and receive email alerts Set up watch lists and portfolios and receive email alerts when gurus or insiders trade the stocks. Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 16
  17. 17. Premium Membership Premium Members ($249/year) have full access to the all the features described in this presentation. 7-day Free Trial The Secured link for signing up: https://www.gurufocus.com/membership/ upgrade.php Copyright: GuruFocus.com, LLC. GuruFocus.com – stock picks and market insight of Warren Buffett Gurus 17

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